To bunt or not to bunt? That was the question being asked throughout baseball last night. And, thanks to a bit of dramatic irony, only one manager was left to suffer the slings and arrows of second guessers.
It’s amazing what you can do when you can’t bunt,” – Dodgers’ broadcaster Vin Scully during Game 4 of the NLDS
With the Dodgers trailing by one run, and Craig Kimbrel lurking in the bullpen, Yasiel Puig led off the bottom of the eighth with a double. Much to the chagrin of those who loathe the bunt, Don Mattingly called for a sacrifice, but Juan Uribe was unable to implement the plan. Luckily for the Dodgers, their third baseman had a better alternative. After his two failed attempts at small ball, Uribe responded with a long ball, proving that the best strategies are sometimes the ones that backfire…and then explode about 30 feet beyond the wall in left field.
Juan Uribe game winning home run followed two failed bunt attempts. (Photo: AP)
Uribe’s home run was a fortuitous turn of events for Mattingly, who couldn’t help but note the irony. “Why am I bunting him,” the Dodgers’ manager mockingly asked himself during the post game. Meanwhile, over 3,000 miles away in Tampa, Red Sox manager John Farrell may have been asking himself the same thing.
The Red Sox entered the top of the ninth inning trailing by a run, but it didn’t take them long to mount a rally against Fernando Rodney, who was closing his first game in the post season. The mercurial Rodney seemed a bit flustered from his very first pitch, and within no time, Boston had runners on first and second. This was Farrell’s brush with fate. It must have been tempting for the Red Sox’ manager to let his powerful offense lean against the Rays’ withering closer, but instead, he decided to play it safe. Even after Rodney fell behind 1-0, his seventh ball out of nine pitches, Farrell continued to think small. Unfortunately for the Red Sox skipper, Shane Victorino is a better bunter than Juan Uribe.
Farrell played for one run in the top of the ninth, and that’s exactly what he got. Then, in the bottom half of the inning, the Rays did as well. It’s impossible to say what would have happened had Farrell let Victorino swing away, but the decision to sacrifice is still very easy to second guess.
Why do managers so often seek refuge in the sacrifice bunt? Maybe it’s because they’ve been taught that small ball wins in the playoffs? Repeatedly throughout the regular season, and then ad nauseam in October, small ball is promoted as a virtue for a championship team. According to the philosophy, home runs work fine against the also-rans, but when it comes to time to face the cream of the crop, the teams who are adept at advancing runners wind up rising to the top. This logic sounds nice, but the numbers suggest it is an extreme exaggeration.
Historical Rate of Runs Scored Via the Home Run, Regular and Postseason since 1995
Note: 2013 Post season data as of October 7, 2013.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Since 1995, 35.5% of runs during the regular season have come via the long ball, compared to 38.1% in the postseason. On a per season basis during that time frame, all but four years have featured a higher rate of runs scoring on a homer in October, including several approaching and surpassing double-digits. In other words, home runs have often proven to be an even more important weapon during the postseason.
Historical Rate of Runs Scored Via the Home Run by World Series Champ, Regular and Postseason since 1995
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Using only World Series champions as a bellwether pushes the needle back a bit toward small ball, but not nearly to the extreme implied by those who prefer their October bunting on the field instead of hanging from the stands. Collectively since 1995, World Series victors have scored 35% of their runs via the long ball, a rate just about equal to the regular season ratio over that span. It is interesting to note, however, that 10 of the last 18 champions have actually relied more upon the home run in the playoffs.
The heightened importance of small ball during the post season is a myth. Being able to manufacture runs will always have value, but there is no reason to believe it gets enhanced when the calendar turns to October. Don Mattingly and John Farrell each learned that lesson last night. Luckily for both, there are still more games to play, and time enough to ensure their sins from last night are forgotten.
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