Cooperstown is going to be crowded this summer. One year after failing to elect a new Hall of Famer, the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) has enshrined a record setting class. For only the fifth time since annual elections became the norm in 1967, three different players were elected. In addition, the highest voting rate was recorded. However, despite the packed ballots and crowded podium, this year’s Hall of Fame class is most conspicuous by those who will be absent.
Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas will join Joe Torre, Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa at a star-studded Hall of Fame induction ceremony in July, but the list of deserving players who were snubbed is even longer. You can thank PEDs for that, but when it comes to players like Tim Raines, Mike Mussina, and Curt Schilling, the clash between old and new statistics has also resulted in notable omissions. The result has been a backlog of deserving candidates, and the glut isn’t likely to subside until these issues are resolved, especially with Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz joining the ballot next year.
Total Hall of Fame Votes as a Percentage of Available Slots
Note: Percentage = Votes cast / total ballots x 10
Source: baseball-reference.com and BBWAA
In an ironic twist, the backlog created by anti-PED voters, many of whom are ardent Jack Morris supporters, resulted in an untenable situation for their candidate. After inching closer to enshrinement in 2013, the right hander actually lost votes, presumably because he was crowded off several ballots. With 15 years of eligibility now exhausted, Morris will have to rely on the expansion era committee for eventual enshrinement.
Although the stakes were highest for Morris, several other players were also impacted by the backlog. Craig Biggio didn’t get the typical historical second year bump needed to pass the 75% threshold, but he did come to within two votes, so chances are he’ll eventually get over the hump. Mike Piazza also seems to be on track for eventual election, but his 5% increase was also less than what he likely would have recorded on a normal ballot. Aside from those two candidates, however, everyone else took a step back. Most notable from this group included Jeff Bagwell, who fell from 59.6% to 54.3%, but the largest decline belonged to Lee Smith, who lost 18 percentage points of support.
Year-over-Year Vote Change for Holdover Candidates: 2013 to 2014
Source: baseball-reference.com and BBWAA
Among new entrants to the ballot, Mike Mussina debuted at a surprisingly low total of 20.3%. Although only two players (Duke Snider and Bert Blyleven) have rebounded from such a low initial vote total to make the Hall of Fame, this year’s crowded ballot is a mitigating factor. So, by no means is Mussina’s candidacy dead in the water, but, at the very least, he is facing an uphill battle despite his strong qualifications.
Lowest First Year Vote Totals for Future Hall of Famers
Source: baseball-reference.com and BBWAA
The macro issues that have led to such a crowded list of eligible players likely won’t be settled any time soon. However, steps can be taken to ensure that eligibility isn’t exhausted because of the backlog. The BBWAA has already convened a committee to study this situation, but it doesn’t take much thought to come up with a solution. Quite simply, all that is needed is a modest extension of the 10-vote limit on each ballot and a separate tally for the 5% minimum cutoff. Although such a system likely would not clear the backlog, it would prevent players from either being forced to wait longer for enshrinement or prematurely removed from consideration. That might seem like a small accomplishment, but it’s the least the BBWAA can do to help lessen the fallout from a process that has become significantly flawed.
Better solution: Term limits for voters. If they knew they only had a finite number of eligible years to cast a ballot, they’d likely value their votes more and would be less likely to waste them on silly protests, paying back personal favors or strategic “vote for this guy later” ploys. It also would eliminate the problem of voters who no longer cover or follow the sport embarrassing everyone connected with the process.
Term limits wouldn’t really address the issue. In fact, they might compound the problem because they would eventually disqualify very qualified voters. The best solution is to expand the electorate to other groups and make the qualifications more stringent (perhaps including continuing education). However, the Hall of Fame is probably very happy with the convenience and free publicity that comes from handing the process off the BBWAA.
Not sure how it would compound the problem if it encouraged voters to utilize more of their available votes on the truly qualified candidates, and I’ve never seen a system outside the Supreme Court that benefited from lifetime appointments. …I think we’re just disagreeing on “the problem” that needs solving. To me, it’s the electorate itself that needs overhauling more than the guidelines or any particular part of the process. I understand the priceless PR the HOF gets from leaving it to the writers but, at the end of the day ,I believe it’s the players themselves that are the best judges. So if there’s any expanding of the electorate to be done, I’d prefer to see it go in that direction. Just mho. …Nice article, btw. I enjoyed it and found it informative and thoughtfully written. All my best to you and yours in 2014, William. 🙂
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