You can add the bullpen to the Yankees’ growing list of problems. Until recently, the relief corps had probably been the most reliable part of the team, but after three consecutive losses in which the Yankees succumbed late in the game, Joe Girardi can’t take anything for granted.
Yankees Winning Percentage with Late Leads, 1996-2014
Source: Baseball-reference.com
It’s a little misleading to refer to the Yankees’ bullpen collectively. Although Girardi has used 15 different pitchers out of the pen, there are really only three he trusts: Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, and David Robertson. This dominating trio has been one of the key reasons why the Yankees have been able to defy their ominous negative run differential and maintain a winning record. However, since the calendar turned to June, Betances, Warren and Robertson haven’t been automatic. Before Sunday, the trio had combined to allow only 15 earned runs in 78-plus innings, but since then, they have surrendered nine runs in only six innings. Is Girardi’s bridge not as strong as it seemed, or has it fallen into disrepair because of overuse?
Among all major leaguers, Betances and Warren currently rank second and fifth, respectively, in innings pitched. At their current pace, both pitchers would top 90 innings, becoming the first Yankees’ relievers to pass that plateau since Scott Proctor threw over 100 innings in 2006. That name alone is enough to make Yankee fans cringe, but can you really blame Girardi for calling upon the core of his bullpen so often?
There are three reasons why the Yankees’ manager has been forced to rely so heavily upon his three best relief arms. The most obvious is the bullpen’s lack of depth. Sure, the Yankees could have acquired a veteran reliever during the offseason, but, for the most part, this is a blameless deficiency. If not for the injury to Shawn Kelley and promotion of David Phelps and Vidal Nuno to the starting rotation, pitchers like Alfredo Aceves would have never been issued pinstripes. So, it would be unfair to blame Brian Cashman for building a bullpen that otherwise would have run at least six arms deep.
American League Rotations Ranked by IP/GS
Note: Data as of June 3, 2014.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
The second problem facing the Yankees’ bullpen has been compounded by the first. Because of injuries to Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, the team has been forced to use three converted relievers as starters. Needless to say, length from the rotation has not been a strong suit. Collectively, the team’s starters are averaging 5.8 innings per game, but even that modest number is skewed by Masahiro Tanaka.
Needing three innings of relief each night wouldn’t be such a burden if there were low leverage opportunities to spread around the back-end. However, that hasn’t been the case. In 106 of the team’s 162 relief appearances (excludes four games for which leverage was not recorded), the first batter faced represented either a medium or high leverage situation. For the most part, Robertson, Warren, and Betances are being used so often out of necessity, not because Girardi has developed a knee-jerk dependence on his three best relievers.
American League Relief Appearance Leverage Distribution
Note: Depicts leverage at point of first at bat for each appearance. Some relief appearances are excluded because leverage is unknown.
Leverage Scale: High: > 1.5; Medium: 0.7 to 1.5; Low: < .07
Source: Baseball-reference.com
The Yankees’ depleted starting rotation has kept the team in most games, which helps explain the lack of low leverage relief appearances. However, the offense is the real culprit. The lineup’s below average run production and OPS+ of 95 are bad enough, but the offense’s consistent level of mediocrity is why the Yankees have become so dependent on the bullpen. In 36 of the team’s 57 games, the lineup has scored 4 or fewer runs, which pro rates to one of the highest/worst percentages in franchise history. Thanks to the strength of the bullpen core, the Yankees have managed to win a relatively high percentage of these games, but doing so has required the constant use of Robertson, Warren and Betances.
W-L%/Number of Games When Scoring Four or Fewer Runs, MLB
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Baseball teams are like any other type of construction. The first cracks appear at the weakest point, but, if left unaddressed, they eventually spread. For the Yankees, the weakest point is the offense. If Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran are able to play the rest of the year unencumbered by injury, it would alleviate some of the concern, but that’s an extremely optimistic assumption. Unfortunately, by prioritizing cost cutting over team building, the Yankees’ have come to increasingly rely upon such leaps of faith. Will the team’s brain trust continue to cater to the bottom line, or will the trickle-down effect of a penny-wise strategy spur them into action? The mistakes of the offseason can’t be undone, but it isn’t too late to remedy them, assuming, of course, the organization has the desire to do so.
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