Who is Jacob Lindgren? The Yankees’ first selection in yesterday’s draft is probably an unknown to most fans, but because the 5’ 11” left hander was recently converted to a reliever, the initial reaction from many Yankee fans has been disappointment.
Lindgren may not profile as an early round draft pick, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t well thought of among those who follow the amateur game. An aggregate ranking of five scouting sources placed Lindgren 62nd overall, so, based on collective wisdom, if the Yankees over drafted, it wasn’t by much. Still, that neither justifies nor condemns the pick. Presumably, the organization performed more due diligence on the available players than all of the media scouts and fans combined, so, until proven otherwise, the Yankees deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The main criticism of the Yankees’ decision is that by selecting a reliever, the team limited its upside. Because even the best relievers contribute on a smaller scale than starters and position players, Lindgren isn’t likely to become the franchise-changing prospect about whom most fans dream on draft day. Of course, the uneasy truth about the baseball draft is once you pass the first round, such players are few and far between.
Top Players Selected with the 55th Overall Pick, 1965-2014
Note: Other includes nine additional players with major league experience. 33 players had of have no major league experience to date.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Since 1965, 49 players, including Lindgren, have been selected with the 55th pick in the draft. From that group, only three have had a bWAR over 6 (Bert Blyleven, Todd Helton and Todd Zeile). The other 45 combined have amassed a meager 12.5 to date, which is just a hair better than the career total of current Yankees’ lefty Matt Thornton. In other words, if Lindgren, whom many feel is close to major-league ready, grows up to be just like Thornton, he’ll be one of the best 55th picks of all time.
Because the Yankees haven’t distinguished themselves in the drafting and development of players, some will argue they don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. Even though these criticisms are usually exaggerated, there is some credibility to the argument. However, if there’s one area of development where the Yankees have done well, it’s grooming young relievers. David Robertson (17th round), Dellin Betances (8th round), and Adam Warren (4th round) were all drafted by the Yankees, and as a group, the trio of homegrown relievers has been the strength of the 2014 team. Who knows, maybe Lindgren will join them this year? If so, the immediacy of Lindgren’s impact would offset some of the “forfeited upside potential”.
Although it’s presumptuous to criticize the Yankees’ selection of Lindgren, it is fair to question whether he was worth not signing Kendrys Morales before the draft. Considering the extent to which the 55th pick has been a crapshoot over the years, chances are the Yankees would have derived more value from Morales than whomever they selected in the second round. But, that’s old news. With the draft underway, the Yankees could sign Morales and end up with the best of both words, assuming the team was simply protecting its pick and not its pocketbook. Either way, Lindgren will be a Yankee, perhaps sooner than later, and, at that time, fans will finally get the chance to either legitimately praise or criticize the selection.
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