The Yankees and their fans should be worried about Masahiro Tanaka’s velocity, but not for the reasons many have espoused. A small drop on the radar gun hardly warrants a panic, especially so early in the season, but ignoring the readings is equally naïve. After all, while the decline may not be a manifestation of ill health, it does seem to be the result of Tanaka’s attempt to avoid further injury.
Concern about Tanaka’s elbow doesn’t warrant the exaggerated conclusions (or worse, prescriptions of surgery from the press box) reached after yesterday’s poor outing. However, these overreactions have elicited an equal and opposite over-simplified response. In an attempt to deflect the worries, some have argued that Tanaka’s drop in velocity isn’t a product of poor health, but a change in pitching style. By shifting from a four-seam fastball to a two-seamer, the argument goes, Tanaka’s radar readings must necessarily decline. That’s true on the surface, but it belies a larger question. Why is Tanaka trying to change an approach that has worked so well in the past?
I think, yes, because of the fact I’m throwing more two-seamers, that could make the velocity go down a bit. As far as my pitching style and my mechanics, I’m trying to relax a little bit more when I’m throwing, so that might have to do with it a little bit.” – Masahiro Tanaka, quoted by the New York Daily News, April 4, 2015
Perhaps Tanaka’s decisions to “relax more” in his delivery and throw a sinker are calculated to enhance his effectiveness. If so, then the Yankees shouldn’t have any concern about their ace. As long as he is physically capable of reverting to the form that made him so coveted, there’s no harm in a little experimentation. But, if Tanaka is making these changes as a concession to his injury, the questions about his health not only become legitimized, but they extend to his expected performance as well.
It doesn’t matter if fans and media wring their hands all season. Tanaka’s torn UCL won’t get better or worse in proportion to the worries expressed about it. However, the pitcher’s concern about his elbow is very relevant. Even if Tanaka’s velocity is not symptomatic of ill health, it could be a side effect of the right hander’s own doubts about the partial tear in his UCL. Why else would he make significant changes to his repertoire and mechanics? And, if these changes are intended to ease the burden on his elbow, and perhaps provide peace of mind, the actual connection to his health is irrelevant. All that matters is Tanaka would not be the same pitcher as the one the Yankees signed last year, and, therefore, the team should not base their expectations on past results.
The Yankees need Masahiro Tanaka, not a close representation. The pitcher who dominated in the first half was a sum of many parts. Velocity, pitch selection and sequencing, endurance, and confidence were all a part of that mix. Although one bad inning in one start doesn’t warrant questioning Tanaka’s authenticity, the combination of his injury, diminished velocity, and frank comments all justify scrutiny and, yes, concern.
It seems like every pitcher is one delivery away from a snap, strain or tear, so the health of one whose elbow has already been compromised seems that much more precarious. The number of outs, innings, and strikeouts will ultimately say a lot more about Tanaka’s elbow than how fast he is throwing the ball, but dismissing the potential significance of what the radar gun readings represent is as foolish as overacting to them. Then again, it’s too late to do anything about it anyway. Despite the availability of several aces on the free agent market, the Bronx Bombers decided to build a rotation with Tanaka as one of it pillars. If the risk pays off, the Yankees can pat themselves on the back, but if Tanaka does succumb to his injury, all fingers should be pointed squarely at the team brass. And, ultimately, that’s what should worry Yankee fans the most. Tanaka’s elbow is beyond the team’s control, but building a roster with quality and depth is not.
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