Is December 6, 2013 a day that will live in baseball infamy for the Yankees? On that date, and within 72 hours of signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year deal, the Bronx Bombers said goodbye to Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson and then welcomed Carlos Beltran into the fold. The transformation may have been quick, but the impact hasn’t been painless.
The Yankees allowed Cano to go West because of money, but letting Granderson head across town was more of a baseball decision. Regardless of the motives, the Yankees effectively decided to forgo spending $300 million on their two former All Stars (although it’s possible both Cano and Granderson would have taken less to return to the Bronx) and then allocate $200 million of the savings toward Ellsbury and Beltran. Because of the $100 million gap, the trade-off seems like an attractive alternative, but when you factor in the varying lengths and total seasons represented by each deal, the difference isn’t as significant. With these variables considered, the $100 million gap equates to $1.63 million per player season, and the bulk of the difference is deferred until the final three years of Cano’s 10-year contract (no assumptions made for time value or payroll inflation; for a more detailed look at Cano’s contract that considers those factors, click here).
Contract Comparison: Ellsbury/Beltran vs. Cano/Granderson
Source: Cot’s baseball contracts
With the financial framework laid out, we can now examine the early returns. Over the first season-plus, Granderson and Cano have easily outperformed Beltran and Ellsbury. According to bWAR, the difference has been almost 11 wins above replacement, while fWAR suggest a more modest -7.5. If you apply a $6 million value to each win (click here for discussion on placing a dollar value on a win), the Yankees have lost between $45 million and $64 million worth of production in just under two years. Clearly, these calculations can change as the seasons go by, but at this point, the financial savings that the Yankees enjoyed from the swap have quickly been eroded, even before you consider the opportunity cost.
Value Comparison: Ellsbury/Beltran vs. Cano/Granderson
Source: baseball-reference.com, fangraphs.com
In 2014, the Yankees missed the final wild card by 4 games, or just about the average of the WAR gap between Cano/Granderson and Ellsbury/Beltran. Similarly, in 2015, the Yankees find themselves three games behind in the division, a deficit that’s smaller than the WAR gap of 5. It’s impossible to know for sure exactly how having Cano and Granderson would have impacted the Yankees win total, but all things being equal, not having that duo over the last years may have and still could end up costing the Yankees several home gates in the postseason. If so, that would further diminish the initial savings by reducing the Yankees’ revenue in each season (not to mention potential intangible costs related to the erosion of the Yankees’ brand).
Filling the Cano Gap: Team WAR by 2B, 2014 to YTD 2015
Source: fangraphs.com
Finally, it’s important to consider the difficulty of replacing a second baseman (Cano) versus a left fielder (assuming Brett Gardner shifted to CF in place of Ellsbury, which, incidentally, would have increased Gardner’s relative value). Whereas the Yankees have found it extremely difficult to fill Cano’s void, several corner outfielders have put up big numbers at reasonable prices, with Nelson Cruz being the most obvious example. When you further consider the relative contribution of someone like a Cruz versus the likes of Brian Roberts and Stephen Drew, the potential competitive and financial improvement that the Yankees forfeited seems even larger.
A definitive conclusion about a decision involving so much money spread over so many seasons can’t be made after only two years. However, to this point, it seems clear that the Yankees would have been much better off keeping Cano and Granderson. Maybe the equation will change going forward, but if it doesn’t, December 6 could become a red letter day in franchise history for all the wrong reasons.
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