The Captain's Blog

After several mediocre seasons, punctuated by a rapid rebuild, the Yankees have turned potential into power, and re-established themselves as one of the best teams in baseball. And, that was before acquiring Giancarlo Stanton during the off season. With excitement soaring to heights unmatched by even a Judge-ian blast, the Yankees seem poised for a championship season, but can they shoulder the burden of these heightened expectations?

The Bronx Bombers are back, but they haven’t quite returned to full glory. Although the ceiling on this year’s team has been raised considerably, and the prospect of having a losing season appears far-fetched, there is still an element of uncertainty baked into the upcoming season. In other words, these are not Bella Jeter’s father’s Yankees just yet, though, this could be the season when they finally reach that level.

What makes the Yankees’ ceiling so high is the combination of power and depth in both the starting lineup and bullpen. What lowers the floor is the possibility of youthful regression as well as a lack of durability in the starting rotation. Although the Yankees’ five starters have all had recent success, and all but sophomore Jordan Montgomery have merited serious Cy Young consideration at some point in the past, injuries are somewhat of a heightened risk and consistency is not a given. The Yankees’ bullpen should be more than equipped to handle a disproportionate innings burden, but if the rotation were to breakdown or fail to provide enough innings on a consistent basis, the ripple effect could take its toll on the entire staff.

A deep farm system also bodes well for the Bronx Bombers. Not only do the Yankees have several promising position players, such as Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, and pitchers, such as Chance Adams, ready to serve as reinforcements, but the organization has more than enough chips to cash in at the trade deadline. However, it should be noted that the Yankees’ desire to remain below the luxury cap threshold could mitigate their ability to add quality players during the season, and this also contributes to a lower win total in a reasonable worst case scenario.

Following are 11 key questions outlined and answered in the context of reasonable best, base, and worst case scenarios. Also, scroll below to see how well the Captain’s Blog has predicted the Yankees’ annual win total in the past and click here to see a forecast for the rest of the league.

Best Case Scenario: 102 wins

The addition of Giancarlo Stanton and continued development of young stars like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez turn the Yankees’ offense into a juggernaut. Meanwhile, relative health and success in the rotation allows Aaron Boone to avoid overextending his bullpen.

1. Luis Severino shows no signs of fatigue after last year’s workload. The young righty continues to be the ace of the Yankees’ staff and merit Cy Young consideration.
2. Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray are able to throw around 180 innings apiece, and, though not dominant, each performs at an above average level.
3. CC Sabathia misses a few starts throughout the year, but is able to provide 150 innings that are at least league average.
4. Jordan Montgomery builds on his rookie campaign by taking the ball every fifth day and improving upon his consistency.
5. Length from the starters allows the bullpen to avoid a disproportionate burden. Relative health allows Boone to spread the innings around, and a rebound from Dellin Betances sees him return to being one of the most dominant relievers in the game. This depth allows the team to overcome inevitable hiccups by individual relievers and gives the Yankees a stranglehold on the late innings for the entire season.
6. Judge and Stanton are both able to approximate their 2017 campaigns.
7. Gary Sanchez stays healthy and improves upon his defense, making him an MVP candidate.
8. After returning from his ankle surgery, Greg Bird is able to play around 100 games and gives the Yankees a lefty power complement to their right handed heavy lineup.
9. Either Brandon Drury or Neil Walker performs at a well above average offensive level, while the other is at least league average. Both are competent on defense, which offers flexibility that allows Boone to deploy his bench with efficiency.
10. Aaron Hicks establishes himself as an everyday major league centerfielder who is above average on both offense and defense.
11. When needed, the Yankees call upon young players like Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres who are able to contribute meaningfully in either an everyday or utility role.

Base Case Scenario: 95 wins

Judge and Stanton aren’t quite as good as last season, but the depth in the Yankees lineup, both on the active roster and in the minors, helps the Bronx Bomber continue as one of the league’s best offenses. The starting rotation has bouts of inconsistency, and, at times, lacks durability, but the depth of the bullpen is able to pick up the slack.

1. Though he remains a bona fide ace, and is able to log over 200 innings, Severino regresses a bit from his dominant 2017 season.
2. At least one of Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray is able to throw around 180 innings, and, though not dominant, each performs at an above average level.
3. CC Sabathia misses a few starts throughout the year, but is able to provide 150 innings. However, his consistency drops off from last season.
4. Jordan Montgomery is able to stay in rotation, but performs at a league average level.
5. A few cracks in the rotation lead to stretches of bullpen overload, but, for the most part, the quality depth prevents undue strain. Betances bounces back from his struggles in 2017, but does not gain his prior dominance. Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green also regress a bit, but both remain reliable weapons all season long.
6. At least one of Judge and Stanton is able to approximate his 2017 campaign, while the other remains a dominant offense force despite the drop off.
7. Gary Sanchez stays healthy, but he continues to have occasional defensive lapses.
8. After returning from his ankle surgery, Greg Bird is limited to around 75 games, but, when healthy, gives the Yankees a lefty power complement to their right handed heavy lineup.
9. Veterans Brandon Drury and Neil Walker provide average offense and competent defense, and offer flexibility that allows Boone to deploy his bench with efficiency.
10. Aaron Hicks performs adequately in center, but doesn’t live up to the promise of last year’s first half. As a result, he shares more playing time with Jacoby Ellsbury.
11. Young players like Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres are adequate when called upon, but neither breaks through with a meaningful contribution.

Worst Case Scenario: 84 wins

An inconsistent and fragile starting rotation takes its toll on an overworked bullpen, and the Yankees’ staff struggles as a result. The offense remains strong, but Judge and Stanton regress from their elite 2017 campaigns, while veteran additions underwhelm and prospects prove unready to take their place. Despite obvious holes created by injury and/or underperformance, the Yankees are reticent to add to payroll and fail to make an impact addition at the deadline.

1. Severino exhibits some wear and tear from the previous season. In addition to missing a few starts, Severino also lacks consistency. Though he remains an above average performer, his season falls off the Cy Young radar.
2. Neither Masahiro Tanaka nor Sonny Gray are able to throw around 180 innings, and, both perform around league average levels.
3. CC Sabathia has one prolonged DL stint as well as bouts of inconsistency, both of which place a league average ceiling on his performance.
4. The league adapts to Jordan Montgomery’s breaking ball, and his changeup remains undeveloped. As a result, he struggles to perform consistently and is farmed out on at least one occasion.
5. Injuries and inconsistency in the rotation lead to an overworked bullpen. This, in turn, causes a few DL stints from among the relievers. In addition, Betances does not come close to regaining his past form, while Kahnle and Green are both solid relievers, but a far cry from their 2017 dominance.
6. Both Judge and Stanton are unable to approximate their 2017 campaigns, though they remain very productive hitters despite the drop off.
7. Gary Sanchez struggles with his health and defense, and that trickles down into his hitting. Sanchez remains an offensive force, but doesn’t take the next leap to MVP caliber.
8. Greg Bird misses most of the season, a consistent replacement remains elusive, and the Yankees’ lineup becomes vulnerable to right handed pitchers.
9. Only one of Brandon Drury and Neil Walker is able to provide average offense and competent defense, while the other struggles. The lack of flexibility forces Boone to overuse his bench under less than favorable circumstances.
10. Aaron Hicks underwhelms in centerfielder, and eventually cedes significant playing time to Jacoby Ellsbury, who doesn’t perform much better.
11. Young players like Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres struggle when called upon, forcing the Yankees to scour the waiver wire for bench players.

Yankees’ Actual Win Total vs. Captain’s Blog Prediction, 2010-2017