Next season, the Yankees will celebrate the 10th anniversary of their last World Series championship. 2009 was a very memorable season for the Bronx Bombers. The intervening years, well, not so much. Last night’s 4-3 loss to the Red Sox capped off another disappointing end to the Yankees’ season, but, before looking ahead, we need to consider why the Bronx Bombers have become perennial post season also-rans.
One thing is clear. The Yankees did not bow out of the playoffs because they were too reliant upon the home run. During the wild card era, home runs have been a more prevalent means of October scoring in aggregate, and so far, this post season has been no different. Excluding the Yankees, all other October participants have seen the number of runs scored via the homer decline 17%, versus down 27% for all other outcomes. The Bronx Bombers, meanwhile, more closely maintained their level of non-home run scoring, but experienced a much more significant decline in productivity from the long ball. In other words, one reason the Yankees will be watching the ALCS at home is because they didn’t hit enough home runs.
Comparison of Run Production, Regular Season vs. Post Season
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Although the offense certainly deserves part of the blame for the Yankees’ early post season exit, the real culprit was the starting rotation, which had the second worst ERA to date among all playoff teams, ranking ahead of only the Athletics, who used an opener in their lone game. But, even this is too simple of an explanation. In each of the Yankees’ three poor starts, the ineffective pitcher was aided and abetted by his manager.
2018 Post season Starting Rotations (as of 10/10/18)
Source: Baseball-reference.com
In the Wild Card game, a tiring Luis Severino escaped a harrowing fourth inning, and, as he roared off the mound following an inning ending strikeout, it seemed obvious to all, including the pitcher, that his night was over. Aaron Boone, however, had other ideas. Severino started the inning, but promptly gave up two hits. Luckily, Dellin Betances was able to clean up the mess, saving his manager from having to answer for his late hook. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Boone’s reprieve did not result in a lesson learned. In fact, he repeated the same mistake in each of the team’s three losses in the ALDS. Boone’s insistence on trying to squeeze outs from clearly ineffective starters (a tendency he displayed throughout the regular season) not only placed his offense in a hole, but also mitigated against the team’s relative bullpen strength.
So, it’s all Boone’s fault, right? Well, not so fast. Although the deleterious effect he had on the team’s pennant hopes is unquestionable, it’s only fair to point out that his mismanagement was a byproduct of the rotation’s ineffectiveness. And, that is why assigning blame is more nuanced than just pointing a finger at the most glaring failures on the field. After all, if the Yankees had been willing to exceed the luxury tax last season, Justin Verlander would have not only been wearing pinstripes instead of beating the Yankees in 2017, but he would have been the workhorse Boone needed this season. Also, the presence of Verlander might have allowed the Yankees to ease the burden on Severino, who, even without that assist, should have been given some time off during the summer. So, because the Yankees were frugal with Verlander and negligent with Severino, the team entered October with a worn down rotation.
Yankees’ Payroll/Luxury Tax as a Percentage of Team Revenue, 2001 to 2018E
Note: Revenue for each team is net of stadium debt and revenue sharing, and includes non-MLB events at the ballpark. Also excluded was the $18 million payout to each team from the sale of BamTech to Disney as well as profit/loss from RSNs in which teams own equity. Payroll is based on final figures for each year released by MLB, and may not necessarily equal the amount upon which the luxury tax is based. For 2018E, revenue is Forbes 2017 kept flat, and payroll is set at the luxury tax threshold of $197 million (for a proprietary tracking calculation of the Yankees 2018 payroll, see here).
Source: bizofbaseball.com and MLB releases published by AP (final payroll), MLB releases published by AP (luxury tax) and Forbes (revenue)
Players fail and managers blunder, but when ownership doesn’t use its resources to help mitigate those possibilities, it’s hard to place blame anywhere else. That’s why the most disappointing thing about the last decade of Yankees’ baseball hasn’t been the lack of rings, but the organization’s lack of commitment to winning them. For the past several seasons, the Yankees have prioritized financial performance over success on the field. Instead of winning championships, the bottom line has become reducing costs and maximizing profit. So, despite the team’s early dismissal from the post season, from the perspective of ownership, 2018 was still a banner year. As long as that remains true, the “flags that fly forever” won’t be flapping in the Stadium wind, and Yankee fans will have to get more creative with their salutes.
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