Thanks to the three long balls Hiroki Kuroda surrendered during last night’s 8-1 loss the Blue Jays, Yankees’ starters have now allowed more home runs than any other rotation in baseball.  Even more jarring, the team’s starters have allowed a whopping 1.65 homers per nine innings, which would easily ranks as the highest ratio in team history. In fact, if not for the Twins’ rotation, which has allowed 1.76 home runs per nine innings, the Yankees’ group of starters would be on pace to allow the most home runs per game in baseball history (the 1987 Angels allowed 1.60/9 innings).

Historical HR/9 Ratio of Yankees’ Starting Rotation vs. A.L. Average|
Source: Fangraphs.com

Entering the season, Kuroda’s rising home run rate was a concern, but unfortunately for the Yankees, the Japanese right hander hasn’t been the only starter on the team who has been victimized by the long ball. The nine homers allowed by Kuroda ties him with both Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes, all three of whom rank among the bottom-10 in terms of homers allowed per nine innings. When you also consider the sky high home run rates of Freddy Garcia and Andy Pettitte (albeit in only one start), it’s a wonder that the team hasn’t suffered from an epidemic of whiplash.

HR Rates of Yankees’ Starting Pitchers

*Averages do not include totals from yesterday’s action.
Source: Fangraphs.com

Based on the record of each individual pitcher, there’s good reason to believe the number of home runs allowed by the Yankees’ rotation will regress to the historical mean. That’s good news because the team’s poor defense doesn’t exactly complement a pitching staff that is prone to the long ball. Having said that, the extent to which the Yankees’ rotation will be able to curb its home run tendency is impossible to predict. What seems certain, however, is if the Yankees’ continue to cede their power advantage, the team’s supremacy in the A.L. East may not be far behind. In other words, if the bombs in the Bronx continue to come from opposition bats with the same alarming frequency, the Yankees’ chances of making the post season could go up in smoke just as quickly.

Yankees’ HR Differential, Since 1998

Note: Ratio above 100% means Yankees hit more homer runs than the opposition.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Ibanez' hits have generated lots of high-fives. (Photo: AP//Frank Franklin II)

Raul Ibanez is the most interesting designated hitter in the American League. He may not always hit home runs, but when he does, they not only travel a long way, but also make a big impact.

In the sixth inning of last night’s game, Ibanez’ three-run homer off Felix Hernandez landed just inside the right field short porch, but most of his previous long balls had been tape measure jobs. According to Home Run Tracker, four of Ibanez’ other five homers qualified as “no doubters” that would have cleared the fence in every other major league stadium. Only Josh Hamilton, with six, has more, but on a percentage basis, no one has gotten their money’s worth more than Ibanez (and, perhaps, by extension, the Yankees).

Raul Ibanez’ Home Run Overlay, As of 5/10/12

Source: http://www.hittrackeronline.com

Home runs that travel deep into the stands are fun to watch, but balls that just sneak into the crowd count just the same.  However, Ibanez’ power display hasn’t been merely aesthetic. Many of his home runs have also been monumental in terms of impact on the game, including last night’s round tripper against Hernandez, which registered a WPA (win probability added) of .41, making it the second most impactful hit recorded by a Yankee in 2012. What’s more, on either a homerun or hit basis, Ibanez holds three of the top-5 WPA slots, giving him the distinction of being one of the most clutch members of the lineup so far this season.

Top-10 Yankees’ Hits in 2012, Ranked by WPA
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Adding to his clutch credentials, Ibanez also owns three of the top four WPA scores for an entire game and also places second in a cumulative ranking, despite playing less often than most of his teammates. Considering how poorly he hit in Spring Training, no one could have expected Ibanez to make such a meaningful early contribution, but one month into the season, the 40-year old veteran has been one of the most productive hitters in the lineup.

Top-4 WPA Games, Cumulative WPA, Clutch

Note: measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations and is defined as (WPA/pLI) – WPA/LI
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

The offseason didn’t exactly go according to plan for Brian Cashman, but Ibanez’ early heroics qualify as a feather in his cap. However, it’s worth noting that although Ibanez was signed to primarily be a left handed DH, he has already played 15 games in the outfield. To put it mildly, when he has a glove on his hand, Ibanez becomes much less interesting (at least not in a good way), which helps explains why he has barely registered a positive WAR (0.1 in terms of both fWAR and bWAR). Can the Yankees survive with Ibanez in the outfield until Brett Gardner returns? Perhaps, but if so, they’ll definitely need the lefty to keep delivering big hits. Otherwise, Cashman’s feather could quickly blow away.

Although matchups between Japanese pitchers and hitters are much more common these days, the sample is still limited enough to make the encounters noteworthy. During his four-plus year career, Kuroda has faced one of his fellow countrymen on 31 prior occasions, including three at bats against Ichiro, who managed to scratch out an infield single. In total, Kuroda has limited his former NPB mates to a line of .179/.258/.214, giving him bragging rights against all but Kosuke Fukudome.

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Japanese Hitters in the Major Leagues

Source: baseball-reference.com

Kuroda’s performance against his fellow countrymen (in terms of OPS against) is the best by a Japanese pitcher with at least 10 confrontations under his belt. On the other end of the spectrum is former Yankees’ left hander Kei Igawa, who yielded an OPS of 1.636 to his NPB brethren in 11 plate appearances. In between is a full spectrum of performance, but in aggregate, 11 different Japanese batters have managed an impressive line of .281/.376/.406 in 401 plate appearances against 27 pitchers.

Individual Japanese Pitchers vs. All Japanese Batters, Ranked by PAs

Note: Excludes plate appearances by pitchers.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Fukudome’s success against his countrymen hasn’t been limited to Kuroda. In 28 plate appearances, the outfielder posted an OPS of 1.064 against all Japanese pitchers, placing him ahead of Ichiro, who ranks second among the nine hitters with at least 10 plate appearances. Of course, considering Ichiro has faced a Japanese pitcher on 106 previous occasions, his OPS of .929 is even more impressive. The same is also true of Hideki Matsui, whose OPS of .824 against NPL cross-overs was compiled over 80 times to the plate. Another Matsui, however, wasn’t as fortunate. In 24 plate appearances, Kazuo Matsui managed only two singles and two walks for a paltry OPS of .258.

Individual Japanese Batters vs. All Japanese Pitchers, Ranked by PAs

Note: Excludes plate appearances by pitchers.
Source: baseball-reference.com

In terms of individual matchups, Hideki Matsui’s OPS of 1.167 against Hideo Nomo is the highest among all NPB confrontations with at least seven plate appearances. The lowest rate of success was turned in by Ichiro, who managed to compile an OPS of only .393 in nine times to bat against Tomo Ohka. The most common showdown between Japanese players belongs to Akinori Iwamura and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who faced each other 37 times. Despite striking out in one-quarter of his at bats, Iwamura got the better of the matchup, hitting .375/.459/.531 (albeit with only one RBI).

Most Common Japanese Batter/Pitcher Matchups, Minimum Seven PAs

Note: Excludes plate appearances by pitchers.
Source: baseball-reference.com

When Ichiro steps into the box this evening, it will probably be a footnote to most Yankees’ fans, especially considering the return of former top-prospect Jesus Montero to the Bronx. However, 7,000 miles away in Japan, the confrontation will probably be the lead story. And, who knows, for Ichiro and Kuroda, it might provide extra motivation as well.

10 Lowest OBP to BA Ratios, Qualified Batters in 2012
 Source: Baseball-reference.com

Among the 188 batters who currently qualify for the batting title, Cubs’ shortstop Starlin Castro has recorded the lowest divergence between on-base percentage and batting average, in terms of both differential and ratio. In the American League that distinction belongs to Mariners’ catcher Jesus Montero, which might serve as a small amount of consolation to Yankees’ fans still smarting over the trade that sent the team’s former top prospect to Seattle.

OBP to BA Ratios No Higher than 105%, Qualified Seasons Since 1901

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Castro and Montero are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with an on-base percentage to batting average ratio of 105% or lower, which is significant because only eight players (including Ozzie Guillen on two occasions) in the history of the game have maintained such a rate over a qualified season since 1901. Over an entire career of at least 1,000 plate appearances, the number is trimmed even further to only five players, including four who were pitchers.

Hitters with Career OBP to BA Ratios No Higher than 105%,  Since 1901

*Indicates pitchers.
Note: Based on a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The only position player with an on-base percentage no more than 5% higher than his batting average was Rob Picciolo, a utility infielder who only managed 25 walks in a nine-year career. Not surprisingly, Picciolo’s OPS+ of 56 ranks as one of the lowest among hitters with at least as many career plate appearances. Interestingly, Picciolo currently serves as the bench coach for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, where he is joined by batting coach Mickey Hatcher. In Hatcher’s 12-year career, his on-base percentage of .313 was only 112% above his batting average of .280. Perhaps that explains why the Angels’ currently rank last in the American League with an on-base to batting average ratio of 119.7%?

Larry Rothschild congratulates David Robertson after he notched his first save of the season. (Photo: Kathy Willens)

Yankees fans have been spoiled. Since 1997, ninth inning leads have typically been a stress free prelude to victory. No sweaty palms. No heart palpitations. No watching the last out between your fingers. With Mariano Rivera in the game, Yankees’ fans were treated to a closer with one of the most unique combinations of excellence and efficiency. Now that he is injured, however, those last few outs may not come as often or as easily.

In David Robertson’s first save attempt since Rivera’s injury, the right hander added two more strikeouts to his astounding total (15.9 per nine innings) and extended his scoreless innings streak to 26 1/3 innings. In the process, however, he also loaded the bases on a hit and two walks and needed 25 pitches to escape the jam. Although Robertson eventually slammed the door, it was a very stressful beginning to life without Rivera.

Robertson’s somewhat shaky debut as closer could be attributed to nerves, but the fact of the matter is the righty throws a lot of pitches. So far in his young career, Robertson has had 116 one-inning appearances, of which 45, or almost 40%, required at least 20 pitches.  In contrast, Rivera has had 720 stints that lasted one inning, but only 112, or 15%, lasted 20 pitches or greater. In fact, Rivera’s percentage is even lower than Robertson’s rate of 25-pitch appearances, which is currently over 16% of his one-inning outings.

Comparison of Rivera’s and Robertson’s Pitch Counts in One-Inning Appearances

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Easy saves might be good for the blood pressure readings of fans and teammates alike, but they don’t count extra in the standings. However, that doesn’t mean closer efficiency is purely aesthetic. Even though Robertson’s 25-pitch inning counts as a save just the same, the effort used to nail it down could have implications for his immediate availability. If that pattern repeats throughout the season, the Yankees could find themselves short handed in the ninth inning on more than a few occasions (and that’s without taking into consideration the impact so many high leverage pitches could have on the health of Robertson’s golden right arm). That’s why Rivera’s uncanny efficiency was about so much more than stress relief.

Over the last year-plus, David Robertson has been one of the most effective, if not dominant, relievers in all of baseball.  What we don’t know, however, is whether he will be efficient enough to be available when needed. If not, the Yankees will wind up with a closer-by-committee, just not by choice. When you consider that Rafael Soriano isn’t the most efficient reliever either, what used to be the easiest part of Joe Girardi’s job could become his greatest challenge.

Replacing Mariano Rivera is about so much more than finding someone to pitch 40 innings. It also entails finding a new balance in the bullpen. That ripple effect ends with the closer, but begins the moment the starting pitcher leaves the ballgame. If Robertson can manage the ninth inning on a regular basis, the rest of the bullpen just might fall into place. However, if he fails, either because of performance or inefficiency, the resultant disorder could leave the Yankees desperate for relief.

Matt Moore's contribution to the Rays has been much less than expected. (Photo: US Presswire)

Because of the perceived depth in its rotation, the Rays’ main strength in 2012 was supposed to be its starters. However, the team’s early success has not been fueled by the starting five, at least not collectively. Although the top three of James Shields, David Price, and Jeremy Hellickson have pitched very well, Jeff Niemann and, particularly, Matt Moore have struggled. As a result, the team’s quality start rate of 45% is below the league average. Even the rotation’s second ranked ERA of 3.51 is a little bit deceptive. When adding back the 10 unearned runs allowed by the starters, the rotation’s average runs per game jumps up to 4.17, which is solid, but not much better than the A.L. mean.

Like the starting rotation, the Rays’ bullpen has also been top heavy. Despite strong seasons from closer Fernando Rodney and setup men like J.P. Howell and Jake McGee, Rays’ relievers collectively rank next to last in ERA and near the bottom in terms of LOB%. It hasn’t been the liability many suspected, but by no means has the Rays’ bullpen been a strength.

Defense is another reason why most people assume the Rays have been successful. In a recent New York Times’ article, Baseball Information Solutions chief John Dewan, one of the founders of the Fielding Bible, trumpeted the Rays’ innovative use of infield defensive alignments, but other fielding metrics don’t seem to agree. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating, the Rays score of -0.11 is pretty much average. Baseball-reference.com’s efficiency rating also pegs the Rays’ defense just below average, while fangraphs.com’s calculation of UZR/150 does about the same (of note, the Rays rank well below average in terms of UZR/150 on the infield alone). Joe Maddon may be the “King of Shifts”, but, so far at least, it doesn’t seem as if they have helped the Rays get off to such a strong start.

Keppinger and Pena have given the Rays many reasons to celebrate. (Photo: AP)

If the Rays’ had a weakness entering the season, it was an offense featuring more than its fair share of retreads. However, that is the unit most responsible for the team’s 19-10 start. With the exception of Jose Molina and Sean Rodriguez, every hitter in lineup has posted an OPS+ well above 100, including surprising contributions from Jeff Keppinger and Matthew Joyce as well as a resurgence from Carlos Pena. As a result, the team has scored a quarter run more than the league average and posted an OPS+ that ranks first in the American League.

Based on the team’s modest +12 run differential, the Rays have exceeded their expected win-loss total by three games, which could mean Tampa has been very lucky during the first month of the season. On the other hand, it might suggest the Rays are greater than the sum of its parts. Because of Maddon’s reputation for innovation, the knee jerk response is to attribute the Rays’ overachievement to his skill as a manager, but once again, the numbers don’t seem support that conclusion. Since taking over the team in 2006, Maddon’s Rays have cumulatively exceeded their Pythagorean expectation by one victory. Of course, that doesn’t mean Maddon’s managerial prowess isn’t capable of extracting maximum value from certain players. It does, however, indicate that the Rays record is generally beholden to its players’ performance on the field.

The Rays undoubtedly have a good ballclub. Although the offense probably will regress (especially with Evan Longoria out of the lineup), an improvement in the pitching staff could more than make up the difference. In other words, Tampa is in the pennant race to stay. However, the rest of the American League shouldn’t be discouraged by their fast start. Unless Maddon really is a wizard, the Rays are unlikely to run away from the pack, which, incidentally, probably holds true for every other team in the division. With the A.L. East pennant shaping up to be a dog fight, who knows, luck just might be the deciding factor. If so, the Yankees had better hope the Rays’ good fortune starts to run out because every victory in the division could prove to be vital.

Roger Clemens stares down Brian McNamee during his 2008 Congressional testimony. (Photo: LA Times)

Was Andy Pettitte’s less than perfect recollection while testifying last week during the Roger Clemens’ perjury trial a genuine lapse in his memory, or a concerted effort to help his friend beat the wrap? Although lawyer-turned-blogger Craig Calcaterra did a good job demonstrating that Pettitte did not flip flop on the stand, that didn’t stop CBS’ Jon Heyman from implying otherwise. According to Heyman, Pettitte’s fuzzy memory was suspicious enough to not only call into question the validity of his testimony, but also his own HGH-related admission.

Make no bones about it. Heyman is essentially accusing Pettitte of committing perjury. That’s a powerful allegation, but because the Yankees’ pitcher is a public figure and Heyman is a journalist, it probably falls into the class of fair speculation. Unfortunately, it may also represent a serious conflict of interest.

McNamee is one of those old-school people who believes to his core the sign on the clubhouse door that says ‘What happens in here, stays in here’”. - Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated, November 14, 2006

Ever since the Clemens’ HGH allegations emerged, Heyman has expressed his belief that Brian McNamee, the former trainer who claims to have provided the seven-time Cy Young award winner with the drugs, was and is telling the truth. Heyman’s trust was so strong that in the midst of the PED furor, he wrote at least two relatively positive profiles of McNamee. The first article, which was published about one-year before the Mitchell Report, paints McNamee as a beleaguered, but innocent victim of a railroad campaign. In that piece, Heyman portrays McNamee as being “loyal to a fault”, which is presented as an explanation for his other proclivity: being at the center of false allegations. Even an accusation of rape is dismissed by the article as another example of McNamee “taking the hit”.

As we now know, just about everything McNamee told Heyman was a lie. That’s not Heyman’s fault. According to many accounts, McNamee has earned the reputation of being a clever con man, so it’s no surprise that he was able to pull the wool over the eyes of an unsuspecting journalist. As the old age goes, fool me once, shame on you. However, Heyman wasn’t fooled only once. After the Mitchell report was released and the Clemens furor broke, the then Sports Illustrated columnist still seemed to be in McNamee’s corner. On January 7, 2008, Heyman scored an exclusive sit down with the embattled trainer. Together in the latter’s Long Island home, the two watched Clemens’ appearance on 60 Minutes during which the pitcher repeatedly professed his innocence. This time, instead of portraying himself as an honest victim, McNamee now claimed he was only guilty of trying to do what was best for his clients, or, as Heyman writes, “steer them to safer drugs if they were already so inclined”. As for his previous denials, well, McNamee described them to Heyman as white lies, and, apparently, Heyman bought them all.

What McNamee says he did back then was to educate players in what he recognized to be a steroid epidemic. He says he didn’t push players to performance-enhancing drugs, but only helped steer them to safer drugs if they were already so inclined.”  - Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated, January 7, 2008

After reading Heyman’s second article back in January 2008, I began an email correspondence with the SI columnist. Despite coming on strong by accusing Heyman of a conflict of interest, he graciously replied to several of my concerns, but did little to dispel the impression I had that the writer had become too fond of his subject. In fact, his replies only made my suspicion grow stronger. Then, during the course of our back and forth, Heyman made an appearance on the Mike and the Mad Dog radio show, during which he not only defended McNamee against the aforementioned rape allegations, but also admitted to “liking” him. Again, his fondness was hardly a crime, but certainly something that Heyman should have disclosed in prior reporting.

Is Jon Heyman engaged in a concerted effort to defend Brian McNamee, even if it means making false accusations? Most likely not. However, it is very possible that his judgment on the matter is colored by his personal or professional relationships. After all, we do know he likes McNamee better than Clemens (as he again admitted during a recent exchange on Twitter).

Heyman isn’t alone in thinking that McNamee’s allegations against Clemens are true (in the interest of full disclosure, I do not believe they are), but that doesn’t give him the right to make accusations about other’s ulterior motives without providing some evidentiary basis, not to mention considering and disclosing the possibility of his own. The power of the pen is a very big responsibility. When writing about free agents and clubhouse gossip, it’s ok to take some poetic license, but when the subject is a federal crime, more discretion should be used. In this case, it seems as if Heyman allowed his emotional connection to the case lead to an overreaction. Is that libel? Probably not, but, at the very least, it does seem as if an apology is in order.

By going 0-8 in Sunday’s 17-inning contest, Gonzalez and Davis joined a select group of only 151 batters since 1918 to come up empty in at least as many official at bats. The duo’s combined efforts also marked only the 27th game in which multiple players took a collar of at least eight at bats. Misery loves company, but it’s hard to say whether the two lefty sluggers took comfort in the other’s similar misfortune. However, if a couple of others had joined in, there probably would have been at least a measure of consolation. Since 1918, the most batters to go 0-8 or worse in the same game is four, a mark set by members of the Angels and Athletics on July 9, 1971 as well as the Astros and Padres on September 24 of that same season. In each of those games, the offenders could have held their heads high knowing their failures were hardly distinct.

Games With 3 or More Hitters with No Hits in At Least 8 ABs, Since 1918

Source: Baseball-reference

In terms of individual futility, Gonzalez and Davis didn’t come close to matching the frustration of Charlie Pick, who went 0-11 on May 1, 1920. Fortunately for Pick, his struggles on that afternoon were overshadowed by a more noble accomplishment. In the same game, which ended as a 1-1 tie after 26 innings, Brooklyn Robins’ pitcher Leon Cadore and Boston Braves’ hurler Joe Oeschger each went the distance, setting a record for most innings pitched in a single game that, needless to say, still stands. Notably, Cadore also went 0-10 (along with teammate Chuck Ward), but considering his efforts on the mound, who could blame him?

Most Hitless ABs in One Game, Since 1918

Source: Baseball-reference

Adding insult to injury for Davis was the fact that five of his eight outs came via the strikeout, making him the first player to suffer that fate since, well, Chris Davis. On September 7, 2011, Davis also struck out five times, this time against the Yankees in an 11-inning contest again won by the Orioles. That game was child’s play, however, as Davis only went 0-6.

Davis’ second five punch-out game makes him one of only 12 players to be retired on strikes at least as many times since 1918, with only Sammy Sosa (four) and Ray Lankford (three) having more. The Orioles’ lefty slugger had a chance to tie the major league record of six strikeouts in one game, but managed to avoid that stigma by grounding out in his final three times to the plate. Then again, if you include the two strikeouts Davis recorded as a pitcher after being brought into the game in the 16th inning, the DH-turned-reliever’s total of seven punch-outs would be the new record. Davis’ dual role as a winning pitcher and futile batsman also had other historical implications. According to Elias, he became the first player to go 0-8 and win a ballgame since Hall of Fame pitcher Rube Waddell turned the trick on July 4, 1905.

Six-Strikeout Games, Since 1918

Source: Baseball-reference

Thanks to two impressive innings of shutout relief, Davis was able to redeem his offensive futility with an accomplishment he’d likely trade for eight at bats any time. Unfortunately, for Gonzalez, there was no silver lining. In fact, bringing the affair full circle, the end of the game included a little bit of salt in his wound as the All Star went down swinging against Davis with the tying runs on base in the 17th inning. The Red Sox first baseman’s difficult afternoon not only made him the first cleanup hitter in team history to take such an expansive collar, but he also became only the 15th fourth place hitter to fail so often in the same game. Clearly, yesterday’s game is one Gonzalez would like to forget, but unless he, and the team, rebound from their slow start, the fans at Fenway probably won’t let him.

Who should be the Yankees' primary closer: Robertson or Soriano? (Photo: MLB.com)

It wasn’t exactly life after Mariano Rivera, but David Robertson got his first glimpse at what it will be like to be the last line of defense in the Yankees’ bullpen. And, if last night’s outing qualifies as an early test, the right hander passed with flying colors. Called in to protect a four-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, Robertson mowed down the heart of the Royals’ lineup, striking out the side on 15 pitches.

For 17 years, the Yankees have almost exclusively relied on Mariano Rivera to slam the door in the ninth inning, but now, Joe Girardi will have to devise a new formula. Although some have dismissively argued that all the team needs to do is replace approximately 40 innings, the challenge facing the Yankees is really much greater. Not only does Girardi now have to figure who will pitch the ninth inning on a nightly basis, but he must also redefine everyone else’s role as well as find another reliable reliever (perhaps David Phelps or even Phil Hughes?) to pick up the slack created by the shuffle.

Yankees Saves Leaders Since 1997
 Source: fangraphs.com

Even though Girardi has publically stated that the Yankees will use both Robertson and Rafael Soriano as Rivera’s temporary replacement, the initial tea leaves seem to suggest that most of the save opportunities will be reserved for the former. Considering Robertson’s dominance, which has been punctuated by a K/9 rate of 13.7 over the past two seasons, that choice seems like an obvious one, but is it really the best way to go?

The biggest concern about using Robertson as the primary closer is that by limiting his appearances to the ninth inning, the Yankees will mitigate the value of his incredible strikeout rate. When there are men on base late in the ballgame, Robertson’s swing and miss stuff is a lethal weapon, but if confined to one inning appearances, the Yankees may not get to use it.

Interestingly, we’ve already seen such a pattern develop because of Robertson’s designation as the “eighth inning guy”. Last season, before he was given a defined role, Robertson operated as a true fireman, often being called upon to clean up a mess. As a result, 47 of his 70 appearances began with a score differential of +/- two runs, giving him a game leverage score of 1.69 (a score of 1.5 or greater is considered to be high leverage, or, more colloquially, a pressure situation), which was third highest in all of baseball. This season, however, Robertson has only entered two games with runners on base and on six occasions, or half of his appearances, has been called upon despite the score differential being at least four runs. So, not surprisingly, Robertson’s game leverage score has dropped to below 1.30.  Needless to say, if Girardi continues to use his best weapon in such an inefficient way, the Yankees will wind up having to fill a void above and beyond the one left behind by the loss of Rivera.

Comparison of Robertson’s Usage Pattern

Note: gLI is the leverage at the point a pitcher enters the game. A score of 1 is considered “neutral “and 1.5 is considered “high leverage”.
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

The alternative to Robertson as closer would be Soriano. Many Yankees’ fans will probably wince at that suggestion, but it wasn’t too long ago that he had a 45-save season inTampa. Because he is less durable than Robertson, not to mention a less attractive option for the middle of an inning when there are men on base, Soriano’s usefulness might be maximized in the ninth inning. Remember, the Yankees need to do more than just pick the best closer to replace Rivera. Until another reliever emerges as a quality late inning arm, Girardi will need to manage to his resources wisely, so having Robertson in middle relief could wind up providing the most flexibility.

Whatever the Yankees decide, it won’t be easy to replace Rivera. In fact, the worst thing either Soriano or Robertson could do is try. With Rivera at the back end, the Yankees were playing an eight inning game, but now Girardi must manage for nine. Fortunately, it seems as if he still has the bullpen depth to navigate the late innings. Now, he just needs to figure out the best way to do it.

Every Yankees fans' worst nightmare. (Photo: AP)

Watching Rivera pitch over the last 18 years has been a distinct honor. Although most fans fixate on winning championships, the best part of following the Yankees is having the opportunity to watch so many great players, and no one has been better than Mariano. That’s why the 2012 season now feels so empty without him. Despite the significant loss, the team is still more than capable of making it back to the postseason, and, who knows, maybe even win the World Series. However, if number 42 isn’t on the bottom of the pile when they do, it just won’t be the same. In fact, I’d gladly trade the Yankees’ chances at winning another World Series for the certainty of getting to see Rivera gracefully walk atop the mound. I wonder how many other Yankees’ fans feel the same way? Either way, not knowing if Rivera will ever don the pinstripes again makes the rest of the season seem so terribly unimportant.

Sometimes, fans can be melodramatic when reacting to the trials and tribulations that surround their team. This was different though. Even the players seemed to share in the same extreme emotions. Throughout the recent Yankees’ dynasty, Mariano has been the team’s security blanket, and last night each player reacted as if that sense of comfort had been ripped out of their hands. No wonder the atmosphere in the Yankees’ clubhouse was best described as funereal. A pall had been cast over the season, and, although most of the players were still too shocked to say much, you could see the emotion in their eyes. Reflected in the glassy look often left behind by tears was not only the realization that the team would have to face the ninth inning without their immortal closer, but also the unsettling thought that Rivera might never take the mound again.

At this point, I don’t know. I don’t know. We have to face this first. It all depends how the rehab is going to happen. From there, we’ll see.” – Mariano Rivera, quoted in The New York Times, May 3, 2012

Even the usually stoic Rivera couldn’t avoid being overcome by emotion as he addressed the media after the game. Would he ever pitch again? When the question was asked, Rivera answered with genuine uncertainty, which must have been an uncomfortable feeling for a man who has always seemed to be in complete control. Although he had been contemplating retirement for sometime, and even hinted that this season might be his last, the end was supposed to come on his terms. Now, it appeared as Rivera was coming to grips with the real possibility that his decision might wind up being made for him.

Or will it? If Rivera wants to pitch again, I wouldn’t bet against him. Although the rehab from a torn ACL is daunting, Rivera’s faith and determination are renowned, so, perhaps they will drive him toward a comeback? What’s more, the great closer may view a return to the mound as a matter of honor. During his postgame comments, Rivera talked about letting his teammates down, which, although absurd, just might provide extra motivation.

Even if Rivera pitches again, May 3, 2012 will be a date that lives in Yankees’ infamy. There really is no silver lining to being deprived of watching Rivera’s elegant greatness: not for one game, let alone five months. However, his injury has made one thing crystal clear. It’s not enough to simply define Rivera by his many accomplishments. Even though the myriad of remarkable, almost bewildering, statistics prove his preeminence, those numbers are merely the byproduct of man doing his job better than anyone else. Instead, the real tribute to Rivera is the genuine respect he has engendered throughout the game, and which was evident by the outpouring of support from around the league as soon as the terrible news was made public. Perhaps no other athlete has ever been universally held in such high esteem, but if one truly deserves a pedestal, it’s clearly Mariano Rivera.