The Captain's Blog

Jesus Montero’s major league debut on September 1 was one of the most anticipated arrivals in recent Yankees’ history. So much had been written and said about the 21-year old catcher that his promotion at the beginning of the month almost felt like a second coming. What’s more, the early returns have seemed to justify the heightened expectations. Although Montero may not be a “savior”, with an impressive line of .353/.450/.706 in 20 big league plate appearances, he could be on his way to becoming the most impactful September call-up in recent memory.

Montero's promotion served as the symbolic end to Posada's Yankee career.

Montero’s ascension to a semi-regular role all but marks the end of Jorge Posada’s time in pinstripes. Although the veteran is likely to crack the lineup a few more times before the month runs out, it’s increasingly looking as if he won’t be a part of the post season roster. If so, Posada’s Yankees career will end just as it started: as a cheerleader on the bench during October.

When the Yankees signed Montero as a 16-year old in 2006, Posada was still an All Star catcher. In fact, in 2007, he had the best season of his career. Nonetheless, when Posada was given a four-year extension after that successful campaign, the overwhelming expectation was the new contract would lead right into the Montero era. As things turned out, when the kid was promoted to replace the veteran, it was as a DH, not a catcher, but still, the transition’s symbolism is clear.

The rapidly approaching end to Posada’s pinstripe tenure has been mostly overshadowed by the early brilliance of Montero’s burgeoning big league career. Although excitement about the “next best thing” is certainly justified, Yankees’ fan shouldn’t be quick to cast aside Posada without first realizing they are saying goodbye to a potential Hall of Famer.

Although some might dispute the notion of Posada as Cooperstown worthy, his credentials are compelling. Unfortunately for the Yankees’ backstop, his career happened to coincide with arguably the greatest offensive (Mike Piazza) and defensive (Ivan Rodriguez) catchers to ever play the game, so it’s easy to see why he is sometimes overlooked in Hall-related discussions. Despite these formidable contemporaries, however, Posada’s statistical record still stands out.

During the 20-year period from 1990 to 2010, Posada’s OPS+ of 123 ranks second only to Piazza’s 142 (among players with at least 1,000 games, two-thirds of which were as a catcher). The same is true for his wRC+ and wOBA. Based on more traditional stats, Posada also distinguished himself during the period, ranking tied for first in on base percentage and third in home runs and RBIs. In addition, Posada has won five silver sluggers as a catcher, the fourth highest total amassed at the position.

Comparing Catchers, 1990-2010

Note: Includes players with at least 1,000 games played and two-thirds of that total as a catcher.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

Although some catchers, such as Joe Mauer, have had better rates over a shorter horizon, Posada’s longevity is also a feather in his cap. In the 20-year span under consideration, only four others have started more games behind the plate, which is remarkable considering how slowly the Yankees eased him into the lead role.

Defensive metrics are relatively unreliable in general, but for catchers, they are severely limited. For that reason, it’s likely that Hall of Fame voters will rely on defensive reputation. Because of how rapidly his catching skills declined at the end of his career, that might seem like a liability for Posada, but during his prime, the backstop was often regarded as being an above average defender. When the totality of his game is considered, Posada probably still takes a back seat to Piazza and Rodriguez, but even being mentioned along with those names is a Hall of Fame credential.

I see vintage Jorge Posada, everything we expect. He’s one of the best catchers in baseball and he has been. He’s an offensive and defensive catcher. This is what I expect, this is what he is and this is what he’s been. This guy is going to go down as one of the famous Yankee catchers, along with Yogi Berra, Bill Dickey, Elston Howard and Thurman Munson.” – Brian Cashman, quoted in the New York Daily News, August 8, 2006

Jorge Posada vs. Hall of Fame Catchers and Likely Inductees

Note: Likely inductees include Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

There are currently 12 primary catchers elected to the Hall of Fame, making it the most underrepresented position on the diamond. However, even despite this very select company, Posada’s career totals still figure prominently among catchers already enshrined or almost certain to be. In the chart below, Posada’s relative rankings in several offensive categories are provided. Although a rudimentary analysis, it shows that Posada can stand toe-to-toe as a hitter with every other Hall of Fame backstop but Piazza.

Posada’s Ranking Among Hall of Fame Catchers and Likely Inductees

Note: Likely inductees include Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

As a hitter, Jorge Posada’s Hall of Fame credentials seem undeniable, so the deciding factor could be electorate’s ability to remember the days when he was considered a solid defender. However, if the recent defensive stains on his reputation are considered prominently, they could be used as a reason to deny his candidacy. Unfortunately, Posada’s bumpy 2011 could also have a lasting impression on voters. Hopefully, when it finally comes time to cast a ballot, those with a vote will remember the extent of Posada’s contribution. And, in the meantime, as the veteran catcher’s days in pinstripes dwindle down, hopefully Yankees’ fans will do the same.