The Captain's Blog

Is there enough room for both Granderson and Swisher in the 2013 Yankees’ outfield?

Is this September the swan song of Nick Swisher’s Yankee career? An impending free agent, Swisher is reportedly seeking a lucrative five-year deal, so, with the Yankees still intent on dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2014, the chances of him returning to the Bronx seem slim. Swisher has loved wearing the pinstripes, and the fans have elevated him to cult hero status, but when push comes to shove, money talks, which is why most people believe the switch hitter will walk.

Is a parting between the Yankees and Swisher really inevitable? Entering the season, the right fielder’s consistent production was almost a luxury for the vaunted Yankee offense. However, this year, some cracks have begun to emerge, one of which has been the significant regression of Curtis Granderson.

After Granderson’s MVP-caliber campaign in 2011, it almost became a given that the Yankees would seriously consider extending his contract beyond its 2013 expiration. However, this season hasn’t gone nearly as well. Not only has the center fielder hit a career-low .229, but, despite once again belting 40 homers, his run production and slugging are also down significantly. What’s more, Granderson has also been on a record setting strikeout pace, which has basically reduced the centerfielder to a “three true outcome” player (46.2% of his plate appearances have ended with a walk, home run, or strike out). Although that’s not necessarily a bad thing from an offensive standpoint, it does prevent Granderson from using his speed to provide additional value.

Three True Outcome Yankees, 1901-2012

Note: Minimum 500 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Compounding the concern over Granderson’s declining offensive production is the noticeable struggles he has had in the field. Judging defense with the naked eye is always a risk proposition, but in this case, the defensive metrics agree, so the Yankees have to consider whether the overall deterioration evident on both sides of the ball this season represents the beginning of a long-term trend. If, going forward, the 2012 version of Granderson is what the Yankees can expect (and, judging by past seasons, 2011 is the year that seems to be an outlier), then maybe parting ways with Swisher isn’t a fait accompli?

Curtis Granderson’s Yearly Offensive Production

Note: Includes seasons with at least 200 PA. Outlined bars represent seasons with the Yankees.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

Everyone has been focusing on the likelihood of Swisher’s departure because of his impending free agency, but if comes down to an either/or decision, the fact that the Yankees hold a $15 million option on Granderson shouldn’t hold much sway. If the team is more comfortable committing to Swisher, they could easily buy out Granderson’s option for $2 million and allocate the savings to the right fielder. Or, they could re-sign Swisher with the intention of letting Granderson leave via free agency after 2013, just in time for the 2014 budget deadline. Considering both players are in their age-31 season, and a new contract for Swisher would come at an earlier age (starting in 2013 instead of 2014), timing and economics should play a subordinate role to whom the Yankees believe will be the better player over the longer term.

Choosing between Granderson and Swisher isn’t an easy decision, but it’s one the Yankees will have to make sooner than later. Granderson is a more athletic player with greater upside (his two best seasons trump all of Swisher’s), so if the Yankees are looking for the highest reward, Cashman would probably lean toward the lefty slugger, who also happens to have an ideal Yankee Stadium swing. However, if Granderson isn’t able to play an above average center field, his value to the Yankees is diminished. In Swisher’s favor are offensive consistency and defensive flexibility. For the most part, the Yankees know what they are going to get with Swisher in the lineup, while on defense, he not only plays a solid right field, but can also fill in for Mark Teixeira at first base. Considering the latter’s recent spate of injuries, Swisher’s ability to deftly move between first base and right field could be a significant asset.

Nick Swisher’s Yearly Offensive Production

Note: Includes seasons with at least 200 PA. Outlined bars represent seasons with the Yankees.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

There is one other alternative to consider. Instead of choosing between Swisher and Granderson, the Yankees could allow both players to leave the fold and gradually replace them with younger outfielders still in the midst of their prime. Of course, that’s easier said than done. In order to accomplish such a transition, the Yankees will probably have to rely on a trade (Justin Upton perhaps) because the team doesn’t have any major league ready prospects and the free agent crop of outfielders appears to be thin over the next two seasons. Unless the Yankees are interested in signing Josh Hamilton to a megadeal, the likes of Michael Bourn (2013), B.J. Upton (2014), Shin-Soo Choo (2014), and Jacoby Ellsbury  (2014) are among the best options looking out over the next two off seasons. In other words, without anyone clearly better than Granderson or Swisher to sign, the Yankees will be compelled to commit to one or the other in the event they are unable to make a big trade.

Presumably, the Yankees have a master plan that gets the payroll to $189 million by 2014. Can Swisher be a part of it? If the rumors about a Jayson Werth-sized deal are true, probably not. However, if the outfielder is willing to be flexible in his demands, Swisher’s days in pinstripes might not be numbered after all. Of course, that would then likely start the clock on Granderson’s remaining time in the Bronx.