The 2016 Hall of Fame election was a case of less being more as the smaller BBWAA electorate helped boost support for just about every nominee. However, only two players were enshrined, leaving several deserving candidates unfulfilled amid an increasingly crowded ballot.
Headlining the results was Ken Griffey Jr., who not only earned a widely anticipated first ballot induction, but did so with the highest vote percentage aside from Lou Gehrig’s unanimous enshrinement via special election. Only three out of 440 voters left Junior off their ballot, giving him a 99.3% stamp of approval. As a result, Griffey surpassed Tom Seaver’s top mark of 98.8%, which had withstood all comers since 1992. Interestingly, that election had a similar number of participating voters (430), suggesting that the relatively smaller electorate probably had a significant impact on Griffey’s close call with unanimity. Would Griffey had been just as popular without the Hall of Fame culling the BBWAA flock? Perhaps, but with over 100 fewer ballots, running the gauntlet this year was undoubtedly an easier task. Viewed in that light, the most impressive vote total probably belongs to another Junior. In 2007, Cal Ripken Jr. received 98.5% of a whopping 545 ballots cast, giving him the second highest raw vote total in BBWAA voting history.
Top-10 Hall of Fame Vote Percentages, Since 1966
Note: Data is as of 1966, when BBWAA started conducting annual ballots.
Source: baseball-reference.com and BBWAA
Mike Piazza’s election was also numerically historic, but in a much more trivial way. Despite seeing a 13% jump in his vote percentage, the slugging catcher become the first Hall of Famer to get inducted with a lower vote total than he had received the year before. Once again, this footnote was the result of the smaller electorate, which allowed Piazza to earn enshrinement despite losing 19 votes.
Year-over-Year Voting Comparison, 2015 vs. 2016
Source: baseball-reference.com and BBWAA
Like Piazza, several other candidates experienced a boost in percentage despite a drop in the raw tally. Most notable among these nominees were Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who each shed seven votes but jumped up 8%. Unfortunately for the two PED-linked immortals, this boost will likely be a one-year phenomenon, so the lack of traction in terms of total votes doesn’t bode well for their eventual election by the BBWAA.
Lowest First Year Vote Totals for Future Hall of Famers
Source: baseball-reference.com and BBWAA
Not every increase in voting percentage was the result of a smaller denominator. Mike Mussina’s candidacy, in particular, received a big jolt thanks to a net gain of 54 votes that nearly doubled the right hander’s level of support. Although Mussina has long way to go to recover from what would be a historically low first ballot tally for a Hall of Famer (20.3% in 2014), his growing level of support and grassroots momentum give him reason for hope. The same is also true for Curt Schilling, who, despite dropping off several ballots, still managed a net gain of 15. At over 50%, Schilling has recovered from a second-year swoon, and, if voters can get past his politics and unpopular persona, the hard throwing righty should continue to make gains.
Players with Highest Vote Percentage Not Elected by BBWAA
Source: Baseball-reference.com and baseballhall.org/hall-famers
The biggest beneficiaries of the smaller electorate were Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell, who each boosted their voting percentage to the 70% range despite netting only a handful of extra votes. Although each player came up short this year, history suggests they’ll eventually win enshrinement. Since 1966, when elections became an annual event, only four players have come as close as Raines and Bagwell without being elected by the BBWAA…and, in each case, the veterans committee put the candidate over the top.
With four years left on the ballot, it’s hard to imagine Bagwell not inching over the finish line, but, unfortunately for Raines, who has one year of eligibility remaining, time is running out. If the former speedster does find himself under consideration by the Expansion Era Committee in lieu of induction by the BBWAA, he’ll likely be joined by Alan Trammell, who surged in his final year, but still fell well short of induction. It might be a case of justice delayed, but hopefully Raines and Trammell won’t be denied their rightful honor for too much longer.
Highest First Year Vote Percentage for Players Not Elected, Since 1966
Note: Data is as of 1966, when BBWAA started conducting annual ballots.
Source: baseball-reference.com
If anyone was hurt by the Hall’s voter downsizing, it was probably Trevor Hoffman. Despite appearing on “only” 62% of public ballots revealed before the official announcement, the closer picked up the pace among the more traditional part of the electorate, which tends to keep its selections close to the vest. The end result for Hoffman was 67%, which easily puts him within shouting distance of inevitable enshrinement. Since 1966, only four other players have debuted on the ballot with a higher total and fallen short of immediate honor. Also encouraging for Hoffman is the fact that every player who debuted at over 60% eventually made it into the Hall of Fame.
One and Done: Top-10 WAR by Players Who Dropped off Hall of Fame Ballot in First Year of Eligibility
Note: 12 names are included because Dick Allen and Ron Santo were both added back on the ballot in 1985.
Source: baseball-reference.com
At the bottom of the ballot, 13 candidates exhausted their eligibility by failing to meet the minimum threshold. Included among them was Jim Edmonds, whose Hall of Fame credentials were overlooked by all but 11 voters. Instead of joining Cooperstown, the former gold glove center fielder can now add his name to the even more exclusive list of players with a bWAR of at least 60 who dropped off the ballot after only one year of eligibility. Included in that group are Dick Allen and Ron Santo, who were each dismissed summarily on their first attempt, only to be restored to the ballot in 1985. Too bad the rest of the names on the list above were not also given a second chance.
Reducing the number of ballots was a smart decision by the Hall of Fame. Still, several deserving candidates were denied enshrinement, and, with the likes of Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Jorge Posada joining the fray next year, the choices are only going to get harder. That’s why next year’s election should be about more, not less. Although a comprehensive overhaul of the voting system would be ideal, alleviating the 10-vote maximum, at least temporarily, is long overdue. Hopefully, fewer voters with more votes will finally strike the right balance and bring baseball justice to those who deserve, but have been denied, the sport’s greatest honor.
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