Aroldis Chapman has been officially named the new Yankees’ closer, replacing Andrew Miller, who just so happened to be last year’s top fireman in the American League. Of course, a strong argument could be made that Dellin Betances is the best of them all, which bodes well for a Bronx Bombers’ bullpen that will feature three of the most dominant relievers in the game today. Clearly, relief pitching will be a relative strength for the 2016 Yankees, but where does the team’s dynamic trio rank all time?
Before jumping into the exercise, it’s important to remember that the philosophy of bullpen usage has changed significantly over the years. Before the emergence of stoppers like Mike Marshall, Rich Gossage, and Rollie Fingers, it was rare for teams to have one dominant reliever, much less three. For that matter, many earlier teams didn’t even have three pitchers perform a regular relief role. So, having a dominant trio relievers is really a more modern phenomenon, and any ranking should be understood in that context.
Since 1901, there have been over 9,000 relief seasons of 30 or more innings, with nearly two-thirds coming during the division era (1969 to present). In the same time span, there have been 1,655 teams who have had at least three relievers meet the 30-inning threshold. It is from among these teams that the following rankings have been derived.
In order to put Chapman, Miller and Betances in historical context, it was first assumed that each reliever would replicate their 2015 performance. Then, the projected output was compared to the three best relievers on every team in terms of ERA, hits per nine innings (H/9) and strike outs per nine innings (K/9). The rankings for each category appear below.
Top-10 MLB Bullpen Trios, Ranked by ERA, 1901-2015
*2016 Yankees figures are based on 2015 performance of each pitcher. The cumulative ERA of 1.70 would rank 18th among all trios, as defined below.
Note: Includes all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in relief. Teams without three relievers meeting that threshold were excluded, even if their innings totals were comparable to those in the ranking. The top-three relievers for each team were based on ERA (i.e., the three relievers with the lowest ERA were included in the trio).
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Super bullpens have become all the rage because of the recent success of the Kansas City Royals, so it’s no surprise that the 2014 trio of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland rank as the stingiest of all time. With a projected combined ERA of 1.70, the Yankees’ 2016 trifecta (rank of 18 all time) would need to improve significantly over their 2015 performance in order to topple the Royals’ top mark. In fact, a small improvement will be needed just to rank as the best pinstriped trio. In 2011, Mariano Rivera, David Robertson and Cory Wade posted a cumulative ERA of 1.61, which ranks as the ninth lowest mark in this survey, and serves as more realistic goal for this year’s trinity.
Top-10 Lowest ERA Seasons by a Reliever, MLB and Yankees (minimum 60 innings), 1901-2015
Note: Only includes innings pitched in relief.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
It’s also worth noting that the 21st century has hosted all but one of the top-15 bullpen trios. The lone exception is the 1990 Athletics, whose three-headed bullpen monster posted a combined ERA of 1.29. Dennis Eckersley, whose 0.61 ERA helped earn him the Cy Young that year, was the driving force in the trifecta, but Gene Nelson and Joe Klink also pitched in.
Top-10 MLB Bullpen Trios, Ranked by H/9, 1901-2015
*2016 Yankees figures are based on 2015 performance of each pitcher.
Note: Includes all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in relief. Teams without three relievers meeting that threshold were excluded, even if their innings totals were comparable to those in the ranking. The top-three relievers for each team were based on ERA (i.e., the three relievers with the lowest ERA were included in the trio).
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Betances, Chapman and Miller could end up allowing the fewest hits per nine innings of any relief trio, but in order to accomplish that, they’ll have to outperform last year’s Yankees bullpen. Along with Adam Warren, Betances and Miller surrendered only 121 hits in 212 innings for a cumulative H/9 of 5.14. To earn the top spot, the 2015 Yankees’ trio bested Trevor Hoffman and the 1996 Padres, who, continuing the theme, represented the only team from the last century to crack the list.
Top-10 Lowest H/9 Seasons by a Reliever, MLB and Yankees (minimum 60 innings), 1901-2015
Note: Only includes innings pitched in relief.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Over the last two years, Betances, Miller and Chapman have posted historic strikeout seasons and been featured in the top-four bullpen trios when ranked by K/9. So, it’s not surprising that a bullpen with all three would project as the most prolific. If the trio’s 2015 output is combined and carried over, the fire ballers would end up striking out a whopping 14.7 batters per nine innings, a mark that would easily rank as the game’s most dominant bullpen triumvirate.
Top-10 MLB Bullpen Trios, Ranked by K/9, 1901-2015
*2016 Yankees figures are based on 2015 performance of each pitcher.
Note: Includes all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in relief. Teams without three relievers meeting that threshold were excluded, even if their innings totals were comparable to those in the ranking. The top-three relievers for each team were based on ERA (i.e., the three relievers with the lowest ERA were included in the trio).
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Although strikeouts have become commonplace in today’s game, especially out of the bullpen (all of the top-10 trios ranked above have come since 2012), Betances, Miller and Chapman still standout from among their peers in this regard. However, neither can lay claim to the most dominant relief season in terms of strikeout rate…not even in their own division. New Red Sox’ closer Craig Kimbrel still owns the best K/9 rate in a season with at least 60 innings thrown. In 2012, Kimbrel struck out an astounding 16.7 batters per nine innings, which sets the bar high, even for the Yankees’ talented trio.
Top-10 Lowest K/9 Seasons by a Reliever, MLB and Yankees (minimum 60 innings), 1901-2015
Note: Only includes innings pitched in relief.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Barring injury or a lengthy suspension for Chapman, the 2016 Yankees bullpen is a good bet to rank among the best of all time. However, a dominant bullpen has become a hallmark of the Bronx Bombers, so, even if this year’s relievers make history, they will basically be maintaining the status quo, especially from the last two seasons. That’s something to keep in mind when forecasting the 2016 Yankees overall performance because, even if the bullpen is mightier, it wasn’t an area the team needed to improve. Then again, by acquiring Chapman, the Yankees have lessened the chance of their bullpen regressing, meaning more of the same could actually be an improvement. Either way, the Yankees’ bullpen is likely to be a focal point, in terms of both the team’s formula for winning games and the level of fan interest. Or, as Yogi would have said, it will be getting late early in the Bronx.
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