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Close Encounters: Yanks High Leverage Woes Creating False Perception of Offense

June 20, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Despite ranking atop most offensive categories, something still seems amiss with the Yankees’ lineup. Although several theories have surfaced to explain this disconnect, most do not stand up to scrutiny.  In other words, this could very well be a case of perception trumping reality. So, if the Yankees’ offense hasn’t been deficient, what is leading to the pervasive feeling that it has?

There is one area in which the Yankees’ offense has underperformed: high leverage situations. Leverage is a measure that quantifies the importance of an at bat by using win expectancy to classify individual game situations (click here for a leverage index chart). Therefore, a high leverage situation is one in which the game is on the line. Needless to say, although these events are much rarer (fangraphs estimates that 60% of all at bats are low leverage), the outcomes are more likely to be remembered.

Yankees Performance in High Leverage, 2002-2011

Note: MLB ranking listed above each bar.
Source: fangraphs.com

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Yanks Versus Cubs a Study in Contrast Since 1908

June 18, 2011 by William Juliano

In the early days of the National League, the Chicago franchise was the class of the new circuit. Then called the White Stockings, the team won the championship in six of the league’s first 11 seasons. Led by Hall of Famers like Cap Anson, King Kelly, John Clarkson and Al Spalding (as well as a lesser known contributor named Billy Sunday, who would later gain notoriety as a world-renowned evangelical preacher), the Chicago teams of 1880s were one of the baseball’s first dynasties.

In 1876, the Chicago White Stockings were the first champions of the National League.

After a decade of futility, the Cubs, as they were now being called, had another run of success from 1906 to 1910. Over that five-year span, the team won two World Series and four pennants, and each season won at least 99 games. In fact, the one year the Cubs didn’t win the pennant, they won 104, but still finished six games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Since the second Cubs’ mini-dynasty, the team’s history has been mostly marred by ineptitude or sudden failure just before final victory. As a result, the entire organization has taken on the persona of hard luck losers. Some have attributed that fate to a curse, but Billy Goat or not, the last 100 years haven’t been very kind to the north-siders.

A Yankees series versus the Cubs is baseball’s study in contrast. On one side is the sport’s most storied and successful franchise, while across the field is a team best known for its epic futility. However, despite being miles apart from the Yankees in terms of accomplishments, the Cubs remain in the same ballpark when it comes to fan support.

In 1908, the Cubs won 99 games and repeated as World Series Champions, while the New York Highlanders, as the Yankees were then called, lost 103 games, the most in franchise history. At the point in time, the Cubs might have been considered the sport’s elite, while the Yankees would have been a candidate for laughing stock, but, needless to say, a lot has changed since then. Listed below are five interesting historical tidbits that help put the two franchises’ reversal of fortune in proper perspective.

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On the Offensive: Yankees’ Arms Haven’t Been Pitching In During Interleague Play

June 17, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Mariano Rivera works the count in an at bat against the Mets.

This afternoon’s game at Wrigley Field kicks off the Yankees’ foray into National League ballparks. Unfortunately for the suddenly resurgent Jorge Posada, that means the Yankees will be without the DH for nine of the next 15 games. However, the team won’t be completely hamstrung in those contests. In addition to CC Sabathia, who has a respectable line of .258/.265/.381 for a pitcher, the Yankees’ rotation now also includes Brian Gordon, a converted outfielder with over 4,000 minor league plate appearances.

Since interleague play began in 1997, Yankees’ pitchers haven’t had much success swinging the bat. Over that period, 51 different hurlers have come to the plate, but only 16 have recorded at least one hit. Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina lead all Yankees’ pitchers with five hits during the interleague era, but they needed 43 and 29 at bats, respectively, to do it. Pettitte is also the only hurler with more than one extra base hit and more than two RBIs.

Yankees’ Pitchers in Interleague Play, Ranked by PAs

Player PA AB R H 2B RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Andy Pettitte 49 43 1 5 2 3 1 20 0.116 0.136 0.163
Mike Mussina 31 29 2 5 0 1 1 5 0.172 0.200 0.172
O. Hernandez 21 19 1 1 0 0 0 12 0.053 0.053 0.053
Roger Clemens 18 15 1 3 1 1 0 8 0.200 0.188 0.267
Chien-Ming Wang 15 14 1 0 0 0 0 8 0.000 0.000 0.000
David Wells 15 14 0 2 1 0 0 5 0.143 0.143 0.214
Randy Johnson 14 14 0 1 0 0 0 6 0.071 0.071 0.071
David Cone 13 12 2 2 1 2 0 3 0.167 0.167 0.250
Hideki Irabu 13 9 0 1 0 0 1 6 0.111 0.200 0.111
Jose Contreras 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 7 0.000 0.000 0.000
Javier Vazquez 10 5 1 1 1 0 2 0 0.200 0.429 0.400
CC Sabathia 9 9 1 2 0 1 0 4 0.222 0.222 0.222
A.J. Burnett 8 6 0 1 0 0 0 2 0.167 0.167 0.167
Joba Chamberlain 8 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.000 0.167 0.000
Total (All) 336 288 12 30 8 11 14 126 0.104 0.145 0.132

Note: Pitchers with at least seven plate appearances displayed.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

As evident from the cumulative statistics, Yankees’ pitchers haven’t had a standout game in interleague play. The best individual performance belongs to Mussina, who went 2-3 with a run scored against the San Diego Padres on June 23, 2002. Mussina’s two hit performance remains the only time that a Yankees’ pitcher recorded more than one hit in an interleague game. In terms of WPA, however, Mariano Rivera ranks as the top dog. The great closer’s bases loaded walk against the Mets’ Francisco Rodriguez on June 28, 2009 contributed an RBI and a WPA of 0.081, adding another distinction to the game in which Rivera recorded his 500th save.

If past performance is an indication, the Yankees shouldn’t expect much of an offensive contribution from their pitchers during interleague play. Then again, staying off the bases might actually be for the best. Just ask Chien-Ming Wang.

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All Roads Lead to the Bronx: Journeyman Makes Pinstripe Debut

June 16, 2011 by William Juliano

When Brian Gordon throws a pitch in this afternoon’s game against the Rangers, he’ll become the oldest rookie to make his first major league start in pinstripes. Born in New York and raised in Texas, Gordon’s return to the big leagues has all the makings of a TV movie, but for now, the Yankees will gladly settle for a five inning matinee.

Oldest Rookies to Make First Start as a Yankee, Since 1919

Player Age Gcar Date Opp Rslt GSc
Brian Gordon 32.304 4 6/15/2011 TEX ? ?
Orlando Hernandez 32.235 1 6/3/1998 TBD W 7-1 68
Joe Vance 32.008 12 9/24/1937 BOS W 5-1 70
Jose Contreras 31.175 9 5/30/2003 DET W 6-0 78
Ernie Nevel 31.045 3 10/1/1950 BOS L 3-7 27
Dan Giese 31.033 12 6/21/2008 CIN L 0-6 65
Kemp Wicker 30.260 8 4/30/1937 WSH L 1-4 48
Wilcy Moore 30.008 14 5/28/1927 WSH L 2-3 63

Gcar=Career game; GSc= Game Score.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Gordon’s journey to the mound at Yankee Stadium has been a long one. The 32-year old right hander, who was originally drafted as an outfielder by the Diamondbacks, has now played for six different organizations in 14 different cities (see map below), so to call him well traveled would be an understatement. As far as the Yankees are concerned, however, all that matters is where he goes from here.

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What Comes Around: Karma and Baseball Chicanery

June 15, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Jose Reyes entered last night’s action as one of the hottest hitters in baseball, so naturally, the Atlanta Braves’ game plan centered on slowing the speedster down. Apparently, however, the team took that mandate just a bit too literally as even the grounds crew wound up getting in on the act.

The Braves were unsuccessful in their attempt to slow Jose Reyes down (Photo: AP).

There was nothing unusual about Jose Reyes’ infield single that led off yesterday’s game at Turner Field. It was not only the shortstop’s major league leading 95th hit, but also the 23rd time he started the first inning with a safety. In fact, Reyes’ early trip on the base paths was so far within the realm of reasonable expectations, the Braves had a surprise for the speedster lying in wait.

After reaching first base, Reyes barely avoided being nabbed on successive pickoff attempts by starter Jair Jurrjens. On both occasions, the Mets’ speedster spun out with his first step back to the bag, making it seem as if he was stuck in the mud. As things turned out, that’s exactly what happened.

Entering yesterday’s game, the Mets were second in the National League with 60 stolen bases, while the Braves were dead last with 19. Faced with such a significant speed gap, the Braves took a page out of gamesmanship 101 and instructed their groundskeeper to spend some extra time making sure the first base area was well lubricated for that evening’s game. Unfortunately for the Braves, however, first base umpire Bill Miller was not playing along.

After Reyes slipped for the second time, Miller halted the game and ordered that a drying agent be used to soak up some of the mud conveniently located just about where a base stealer would take his lead. After play resumed, Reyes promptly stole second base, providing justification for the Braves’ pre-game preparations. By the end of the night, the Mets had swiped four bags, including a second steal by Reyes.

I don’t know what’s going on, but I don’t care. If it’s wet, I’m going to try and steal anyway. They can do whatever they want to.” – Jose Reyes, quoted in the New York Post, June 15, 2011

Although perhaps guilty of overzealousness, the Atlanta Braves aren’t the first team to accentuate strengths and minimize weaknesses by altering their home field. Throughout baseball’s colorful history, tailored mounds, slanted baselines, thick infield grass, roving fences and various other tactics have been frequently used to gain an edge. In fact, one of the most famous, and infamous, examples of creative field maintenance involved the very same approach used by the Braves against the Mets. What’s more, some people contend that the tactic helped decide the 1962 pennant. Continue Reading »

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Is Jorge Posada a Viable Candidate for Backup Catcher (and Has He Been All Along)?

June 14, 2011 by William Juliano

During an interview on WFAN, Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman implied rather directly that the extent to which Jorge Posada is no longer an option behind the plate is entirely the result of his own actions.

Posada and Cashman haven’t exactly seen eye to eye this season.

According to Cashman, when Francisco Cervelli was injured during spring training, the Yankees turned to Posada as a potential backup for Russell Martin, but the veteran backstop decided that he would be better off focusing on his new role as DH. Cashman also stated that lingering headaches resulting from last season’s concussion also contributed to Posada’s reticence to get back behind the plate. If Cashman’s version of events is accurate, it would mean that the Yankees could have enjoyed more roster flexibility had Posada decided, or been physically able, to embrace the role as a backup to Martin.

Considering how poorly Cervelli has played since returning to the active roster, and how much Posada has struggled as a DH, it seems as if both problems could have been mitigated if the Yankees and Posada had better prepared for the current predicament. Cashman’s recent revelation is particularly ironic because it has been assumed that one reason Posada has bristled in his new role was because of the lack of an opportunity to catch. What’s more, it also contradicts the prevailing thought the Yankees, not Posada, pulled the plug on a backup role because of lingering health concerns.

Posada has not yet been asked about Cashman’s comments, but one wonders how the feisty veteran will react to the implication that his failure to stay in shape is the main reason preventing him from stepping back behind the plate. Without knowing the extent to which last year’s concussion has hampered his ability to catch, it’s hard to say how receptive Posada would be to the Yankees’ willingness to have him work his way back into being an option at the position. In the meantime, for the sake of harmony in the clubhouse, it’s perhaps even more important that Posada doesn’t contradict Cashman’s account or express resentment at the idea that the end of his catching career has been self inflicted.

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Filling the Yankees’ Holes Behind the Plate and Atop the Lineup

June 14, 2011 by William Juliano

Over the past week, a spate of injuries has left the New York Yankees roster in a state of disarray. As a result, the burden has fallen upon Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi to fill the growing voids. With so many decisions needing to be made, provided below is some unsolicited advice to help the organization navigate through the recent upheaval.

Recharging the Battery

Russell Martin’s back injury has once again thrust Francisco Cervelli into a quasi-starting role as Yankees’ catcher. Over the past three years, the Venezuelan backstop has compiled approximately one season’s worth of at bats, which should be enough of a sample to conclude that he is well below average as both a hitter and catcher. In other words, it’s time to cast aside any inclination that Cervelli can handle regular playing time.

Is the coming of Jesus Montero imminent?

For several years now, Yankees’ fans have been titillated by reports about the prodigious hitting ability of prospect Jesus Montero. Although those projections have been tempered by less than sanguine assessments of his catching ability, there’s only one way to find out if he can actually play the position. What’s more, Cervelli’s defense has been so poor over such a sustained period of time that even a worst case scenario wouldn’t represent much a drop-off, even without taking into account the reasonable expectations for a much greater offensive contribution.

Granted, at only 21 years of age, it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that Montero is not completely ready for the big leagues. Having said that, he’s also not exactly a raw amateur. Since signing with the Yankees in 2007, Montero has amassed 1,800 plate appearances, including 775 at triple-A. Even though his .293/.339/.424 line at Scranton this year doesn’t exactly scream promotion, his past success at the level and evident nature ability seem to suggest he’s worthy of a shot at a big league role.

Another added benefit to promoting Montero would be allowing him to learn the craft from a respected veteran like Martin. Just as important, if Montero could take on a semi-regular role as Martin’s backup, it would afford the latter more rest for what has been an achy body over the last several years. It’s gone largely unmentioned amid the Yankees other concerns, but Martin’s production has plummeted since the end of April. With more rest, the Yankees could wind up with a productive catching tandem in the present as well as a centerpiece behind the plate in the future.

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