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The Rivalry Strikes Back: A Historical Look at Yankees vs. Red Sox

May 13, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Much to the chagrin of the rest of the baseball world, this weekend brings the latest installment of the epic battle between the Yankees Universe and Red Sox Nation. 

Over the next 72 hours, FOX, ESPN, and local sports networks in both regions will inundate their audiences with coverage of a rivalry that has  taken on a life of its own. Much like European soccer powerhouses interrupt their regular season schedules to play highly anticipated international tournament games, when the Yankees and Red Sox meet, the events seem to transcend the sport. 

Like it or not, when the Yankees and Red Sox play, the games generate great interest. Fueling that passion has been the success enjoyed by both teams over the last decade. However, the rich history between the two teams is also a factor. Even though the Rays have established themselves on equal footing with both behemoths, their limited history, and even more limited fan base, hasn’t yet kindled the intensity that exists between Boston and New York.

Although it often gets swallowed up in hype, the fact of the matter is the rivalry has been highly competitive over the last decade (and, as noted below, the last 45 years). Not since 2001, when the Yankees won 13 of 18, has one team dominated a season series. Over the subsequent 10 years (including the playoffs and the three games played so far this year), the outcomes have practically been the split down the middle, with the Yankees maintaining a small 94-90 advantage. With each team being a perennial pennant contender, the games have taken on a heightened significance, which undoubtedly has contributed to the intensity on each side.

History of the Rivalry, 1901-1911

 

Note: Blue in the chart above represents years when the Yankees won more than 50% of the season series. Red represents when the Red Sox won more than 50%. When the season series was split, a gray area is visible.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Anatomy of a Slump: Too Many Goats and Not Enough Heroes

May 12, 2011 by William Juliano

When the Yankees left Baltimore on Easter Sunday, the team was riding a three-game winning streak into what was shaping up to be one of the weakest stretches on the schedule. At the time, the offense was averaging a whopping six runs per game and the starting rotation was rounding into form, so it seemed like the Yankees were a sure bet to build upon their five game loss column lead over the Red Sox and Rays.

NY Daily News

Unfortunately, just when it looked as if the Yankees were ready to take off, their offense went south. In the 16 games played since April 24, the Bronx Bombers have averaged only 4.2 runs, and even that amount is inflated. Excluding two games in which they scored 12 runs, the Yankees have barely scored more than three runs per contest.

At the beginning of the year, the offense was expected to carry the team, but instead, the pitchers have shouldered the burden. As the offense has sputtered, the pitching staff has risen to the occasion by limiting the opposition to only 55 runs. Because of their stinginess, the Yankees have managed to eke out a .500 record during this stretch. However, by losing half those games, the Yankees have squandered a chance to take advantage of a soft spot in the schedule.

To be fair, the Yankees’ offense really hasn’t been that bad over the past two weeks. In fact, statistically speaking, it’s actually been pretty good. Over the last 14 days, the Bronx Bombers are second in all of baseball with a wOBA of .351 and first with an OBP of .363. In other words, the Yankees have not suffered from a lack of opportunities to score; they just haven’t been able to capitalize on them.

Yankees Offensive Performance, April 28 to May 11

Name PA HR R RBI BABIP OBP SLG wOBA WPA
Gustavo Molina 1 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 2.000 1.283 0.00
Brett Gardner 47 1 9 3 0.500 0.578 0.618 0.511 0.38
Eduardo Nunez 16 0 3 2 0.462 0.438 0.533 0.477 -0.12
Curtis Granderson 58 5 11 13 0.300 0.397 0.646 0.439 0.60
Mark Teixeira 53 3 6 5 0.250 0.415 0.558 0.427 -0.20
Robinson Cano 49 2 6 6 0.294 0.347 0.465 0.362 -0.08
Eric Chavez 13 0 1 3 0.222 0.385 0.400 0.327 0.20
Derek Jeter 52 2 6 5 0.308 0.308 0.429 0.324 -0.09
Nick Swisher 51 2 6 6 0.276 0.353 0.395 0.324 -0.06
Francisco Cervelli 11 1 2 5 0.143 0.200 0.500 0.302 0.01
Russell Martin 41 0 3 4 0.231 0.341 0.242 0.286 0.02
Jorge Posada 48 0 4 4 0.267 0.333 0.250 0.271 -0.06
Alex Rodriguez 51 0 5 4 0.243 0.235 0.208 0.208 -0.76
Andruw Jones 14 0 0 0 0.125 0.214 0.083 0.164 -0.24
Total 505 16 62 60 0.294 0.363 0.424 0.351 -0.42

Source: fangraphs.com

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Tagged | 4 Comments »

Is the Cutter Responsible for the Decline in Offense?

May 11, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Offense has been down across the majors this season, continuing a trend that began at the start of the decade and accelerated last season.

In the National League, the per-team average has been 4.13 runs, which would be the lowest output since 3.88 runs in 1992. Meanwhile, if the American League’s current average output of 4.26 runs per team remains constant over the rest of the year, it will be the junior circuit’s lowest offensive display since the strike-shortened season of 1981.

Runs Scored by League, 1901-2011

Source: Baseball-reference.com

One of the main factors that seems to be driving this downward offensive trend is a similar decline in the number of home runs. In 2000, when run production in the major leagues reached 5.14 per team, 3% of all plate appearances culminated in a homer. This year, the homerun rate has fallen all the way to 2.3%. During that span, runs per game has almost correlated in lock step with the homerun rate (R =0.896), so there can be no denying that fewer balls over the fence have meant fewer runners crossing the plate.

The connection between homeruns and run production is an easy one, but what is at that root cause of the decline in long ball power? Countless theories abound, but most center on the gradual increase in testing for both steroids and amphetamines. Although part of the overall trend could be attributable to that dynamic, it seems likely that many other variables have also played a role.

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Rally Killers of a Different Kind: Linking Home Runs to Double Plays

May 9, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

The 2011 Yankees’ offense has been prolific at doing two things: hitting home runs and grounding into double plays.

The Yankees have been the victims of a league leading 41 double plays (Photo: Getty Images).

After only 32 games, the team has hit an astounding 54 home runs, which equates to 273 long balls over 162 games. If that pace is maintained, the Bronx Bombers would not only establish a new franchise home run mark, but also surpass the 1997 Seattle Mariners’ record of 264.

The Yankees’ lofty home run tally has been fueled by an unusually high home run/fly ball ratio. After hitting five homers on Sunday, 17.3% of the Yankees’ fly balls have left the yard. For perspective, the league average is only 7.0% and the next highest team total is 11.3% (Texas).  What’s more, the 2010 Blue Jays, which hit 257 homers, only recorded a rate of 13.6%. So, even if the Yankees’ experience a meaningful drop in the number of home runs per fly ball, the team could still approach a record-setting pace.

On the other end of the offensive spectrum, the Yankees have also hit into 41 double plays, which puts the them on target for 207. Once again, if they maintain that pace, the team will enter the record books, this time surpassing the 1990 Boston Red Sox’ total of 174.

Double Play Correlations, 2002-2010

 Year DP GB% Spd* HRs
2010 124 44.9% 4.8 201
2009 144 43.1% 4.6 244
2008 149 45.9% 4.5 180
2007 138 45.8% 5 201
2006 139 45.4% 4.9 210
2005 125 46.8% 4 229
2004 157 45.1% 4.3 242
2003 154 43.3% 4.1 230
2002 150 42.5% 4.2 223
  R= -0.4989 -0.2936 0.2682

* Speed Score is composed of the following components:  Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Tagged | 3 Comments »

Sticking Around: Jeter Celebrates SS Record with a Revival

May 9, 2011 by William Juliano

Maybe Derek Jeter shouldn’t retire after all?

Considering the furor caused by the short stop’s early season struggles, you’d have thought Jeter was the only part of the Yankees’ team not performing up to standards. In Sunday’s 12-5 rout of the Texas Rangers, however, the Captain allayed those fears…at least for one day.

By going 4-6 with two line drive homeruns over the right centerfield wall, Jeter changed the off day’s narrative from “what’s wrong with the Captain” to “could he be turning it around”? Instead of having to deal with questions about his lagging performance, Jeter can now bask in the glow of a road trip that saw him bat .393/.414/.643.

Although the growing chorus of Jeter’s detractors will likely dismiss the performance as “only one game”, it’s worth noting that his WAR of 0.6 (fangraphs’ version) ranks within reach of every other American League shortstop except Maicer Izturis (who has played only 11 of 26 games at the position). Ironically, a large part of that ranking is attributable to Jeter’s defense, which, according to UZR/150, currently ranks ninth best in all of baseball.

In addition to finding his power stroke over the weekend, Jeter also earned the distinction of becoming the most tenured short stop with one team, surpassing Cal Ripken Jr.’s 2,302 games with the Orioles. By the end of the season, Jeter will also surpass Mickey Mantle for the most games played by a Yankee, not to mention the first player in the franchise to reach 3,000 hits.

True Yankees: Longest Tenured Yankees at Each Position

As of May 8, 2011.
Note: Blue lines represent those who only played for the Yankees. Gray lines represent most games at position by players who were also on other teams.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Judging by the tone earlier in the week, it was easy to come away with the impression that some would prefer if Jeter didn’t stick around long enough to accomplish any of the aforementioned milestones. In an ironic twist, it almost seems as if the Captain has worn out his welcome with a significant portion of the fan base simply because he may never regain the glory of his prime years. Hopefully, Sunday’s game will stem the tide of that sentiment. A standing ovation for Jeter in his first at bat at the Stadium on Tuesday would be a nice place to start.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged | 2 Comments »

Did Fans of the Past Better Appreciate Star Players? Examining a Radio Talk Show Claim

May 7, 2011 by William Juliano

Toward the end of Friday afternoon’s edition of the Michael Kay radio show, which was being co-hosted by Don La Greca and Bill Daughtry, the conversation shifted toward the favorite myth of the middle-aged sports media (and many older fans): baseball’s decline in popularity.

Lincecum Meets the Mets on May 4 at Citifield (Photo: AP)

Every objective piece of statistical evidence suggests that baseball is more popular now than it has ever been. From attendance to revenue to local RSN television ratings, more people are enjoying the national pastime than ever before. However, that didn’t stop La Greca and Daughtry from lamenting about waning interest in the game.

As evidence for their opinion, the hosts pointed to the attendance for Tim Lincecum’s recent start at Citifield. Before the game, the Mets were averaging 27,022 fans per game, but 29,333 poured through the turnstiles to see the Wednesday evening game against the Giants. Considering the persistent rain that fell earlier in the day, a 9% increase seemed like a solid boost, but La Greca and Daughtry were not impressed.

Back in the good old days, the hosts fondly recalled, a marquee name like Lincecum would have created such a buzz in the city that fans would have flocked to Shea to watch him, even during the franchise’s darkest days in the late-1970s and early-1980s. The relatively tepid response to Lincecum, La Greca and Daughtry argued, was further evidence that baseball no longer resonated like it once did.

There are two obvious counters to that argument. The first is the proliferation of baseball games on television has removed the urgency to see star players when they come to town. If a fan in New York wants to watch to Lincecum pitch, he can catch every single start on television or over the internet. What’s more, because of the advancements in technology, the best place to actually observe Lincecum’s pitching style is from the living room couch, not the ballpark.

Another fact neglected by this argument is the precipitous increase in baseball attendance versus 30 years ago. If the Mets maintain their average attendance, the number of people watching baseball in Flushing will be two to three times greater than at any point between 1977 and 1983. What’s more, the average attendance would also be higher than the one recorded by the 1969 championship team.

Even if you acknowledge baseball’s unprecedented popularity, La Greca’s and Daughtry’s point could still be valid. Regardless of the reason, it’s certainly possible that big names no longer serve as drawing cards. Verifying that claim would take mountains of research, but it isn’t that difficult to analyze the specific suggestion that Shea Stadium used to fill up for legendary mound opponents.

In order to test the veracity of this claim, games between 1974 and 1984 were considered (all years in which the Mets’ attendance lagged). Then, a list of 14 Hall of Fame pitchers active in the National League during that period was pared down to four indisputable legends: Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, and Bob Gibson. Finally, the attendance at Shea Stadium for every game started by that quartet was compared to the season average. The results of that comparison are presented in the graphs below (click to make larger).

Drawing Cards: A Look at Shea Stadium Attendance for Select Legends, 1974-1984

Note: Blue area represents actual game attendance; orange outline represents season average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Going, Going, Gone? Yanks In Search of Long Ball’s Return

May 6, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

When the Yankees landed in Detroit on Monday, it looked like an opportunity to make some hay. However, the team’s suddenly slumbering lumber conspired with several miscues in the field and on the bases to send the Yankees limping to Texas with three losses.

Historically, the Yankees have struggled to score in Comerica Park, so the week’s drought shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. In the 47 games played since the park opened in 2000, the Yankees have only hit 38 home runs and averaged 4.7 runs per contest.

Yankees at Comerica Park, 2000-2011

G W L PA AB R HR BA OBP SLG
47 22 25 1876 1680 221 38 0.263 0.330 0.388

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Although the Motown slowdown was in keeping with past results, the Yankees’ recent swoon extends back even further. Over the last 11 games, the team has averaged only four runs, including a 12-run outburst against the White Sox. If you remove that game from the equation, the team’s average run total drops all the way to three. Not surprisingly, the Yankees have gone 5-6 over this period.

Before the season, most fans probably would have expected the pitching staff to be the root cause of an extended lull. However, responsibility for the Yankees’ first down period falls squarely on the shoulders of the offense. Ironically, if not for the team’s strong starting pitching, the current stretch of 11 games could have been even more costly.

It’s easy to identify the source of the Yankees’ recent woes, but figuring out the reason behind the diagnosis is a much harder task. After all, before the Yankees’ returned home to face the White Sox on April 25, the offense was averaging a whopping six runs per game. So, the question remains, what is behind this recent spiral?

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | 1 Comment »

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