The Captain's Blog

Hot Stove Blueprint #3: Filling a Hole in the Backstop

November 10, 2010 by William Juliano

Brian Cashman is on his way to Arkansas to meet with Cliff Lee, so he may need a little reading material on the plane. What better time for the third installment of our blueprint series? The first two proposals (click here and here) dealt with bigger names like Carlos Zambrano, Colby Rasmus and Matt Kempt, but teams also need to properly fill in the bottom of the 25-man roster. With that in mind, it’s time to turn an eye toward the Yankees’ unsettled catching position.

The catching tandem of Posada and Cervelli struggled on defense in 2010 (Photo: The Star-Ledger).

With the exception of Derek Jeter’s free agency, no topic in Yankee land has been more widely discussed than the role that Jorge Posada will play in 2011. Adding further intrigue to the story, the New York Times is reporting that Posada will undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. The procedure is considered a minor one, but at age 39, any kind of injury has to be taken seriously. As a result, Brian Cashman has reportedly told Posada to prepare to come into camp as a catcher, but also expect to spend considerable time at DH. What’s more, several sources have also stated that the Yankees have every intention of giving wunderkind Jesus Montero a real shot at winning a significant role on the team. All of that makes perfect sense, and yet, something still seems to be missing in the equation.

In 2010, Posada and Francisco Cervelli nearly split the catching duties down the middle, and in the process became the first pair to record over 300 plate appearances as a catcher in franchise history. Even with Cervelli’s paltry .694 OPS factored in, Yankees’ catchers still finished first in the American League with a wOBA of .339. However, on defense, the tables were completely turned. Not only did the Yankees’ lead all of the majors with 21 errors from behind the plate (Cervelli’s 13 and Posada’s 8 actually led the ballclub), they also ranked dead last in CS%, trailing even the Red Sox abysmal rate of 19.9% by a full five points.

Like Candy from a Baby: Ten Easiest Teams to Steal Against

Team	Inn	E	SB	CS	CS%
Yankees	1442.1	21	132	23	14.8%
Red Sox	1456.2	8	169	42	19.9%
Cubs	1436.2	8	114	31	21.4%
Pirates	1411.2	12	116	32	21.6%
Rangers	1455.1	12	116	35	23.2%
Angels	1449.1	17	133	41	23.6%
Brewers	1439	11	100	31	23.7%
Diamondbacks	1432	3	115	36	23.8%
Orioles	1436.1	8	83	27	24.5%
Rays	1453.2	11	89	30	25.2%

Source: fangraphs.com

If you haven’t figured it out yet, one of the Yankees’ greatest weaknesses in 2010 was defense behind the plate. So, how do they go about filling that hole?

Free Agent Acquisition: Miguel Olivo

Jesus Montero is expected to get a chance to go north with the club in 2011.

Unfortunately, the defensive reputation of Montero is not very encouraging. Scouting reports have labeled his skills behind the plate anywhere from awful to acceptable, so his defensive contribution will remain a question mark, to say the least. Fellow prospect Austin Romine, who is also reportedly being considered for a roll in 2011, does enjoy a more flattering defensive reputation, but all signs point to his starting the year in Scranton. So, aside from Montero and Posada, that pretty much leaves Cervelli as the only other option. In others words, unless an acquisition is made, the Yankees shouldn’t expect much defense from behind the plate in 2011.

There is, however, a potential free agent who would fit the Yankees’ need: Miguel Olivo.

The Blue Jays recently acquired Miguel Olivo from the Rockies and then promptly declined his option, deciding instead to offer him arbitration. Because Olivo is a type-B player, the Blue Jays would receive a supplemental pick if he were to sign with another team, which is presumably exactly what Toronto would like him to do. Assuming he doesn’t accept arbitration, Olivo would be free to field offers.

Olivo is a decent bat for a catcher, making up in power for what he lacks in getting on base. In particular, he is a more than competent stick against lefthanders, posting a .284/.318/.503 line in 896 career plate appearances. The Yankees aren’t looking for offense from the position, however. What makes Olivo attractive are his defensive skills, particularly his career caught stealing rate of 35.4%, which ranks just behind Joe Mauer for 12th best among all active catchers.

Active Caught Stealing Percentage Leaders

Rank	Player (age)	CS%
1	Yadier Molina (27)	46.82
2	Ivan Rodriguez (38)	44.49
3	Henry Blanco (38)	42.93
4	Alberto Castillo (40)	41.46
5	Jose Molina (35)	39.45
6	David Ross (33)	38.55
7	Gerald Laird (30)	37.94
8	Brian Schneider (33)	37.09
9	Mark Johnson (34)	36.61
10	Brandon Inge (33)	36.31
11	Joe Mauer (27)	35.75
12	Miguel Olivo (31)	35.03

Note: Minimum 200 SB attempts
Source: Baseball-reference.com

How He Fits

If the Yankees were able to land Olivo, they could pretty much use him in a 40/40/20 platoon with Montero and Posada. Of course, if Montero

Miguel Olivo could help the Yankees fill in a defensive gap behind the plate (Photo: Getty Images).

blossomed either behind the plate or in the batter’s box, that could be adjusted, but at the very least, the Yankees would have a strong defensive minded backup plan in the event he required more seasoning (or Posada’s injuries prohibited him from catching at all). Also, with three catchers on the roster, the Yankees could more easily pinch hit in high leverage situations, thereby reducing the negative impact of Olivo’s below average bat. In other words, the Yankees could enjoy the best of both worlds by strategically employing Olivo’s defense without enduring too much of a negative impact from his low on base percentage.

At this point, someone is likely to point out that Cervelli’s OPS+ was just a shade below Olivo’s, but with a much higher on base percentage. If only the Yankees could be sure Cervelli would provide above average defense, they might be just fine employing him as a third catcher, especially considering the reduced cost. Unfortunately, however, Cervelli’s defense was so poor (his second half offense was equally bad) that the Yankees can not take that chance. 2011 is going to be a year of transition behind the plate, and there really is no room for a third party who can neither hit nor play defense at an acceptable level.

Money Matter$

There are two potential problems with this plan. The first is Olivo could wind up accepting arbitration. After making $2 million in 2010, he could actually do better by avoiding free agency. Of course, that could ultimately work to the Yankees’ advantage. If the Blue Jays were to get stuck with Olivo at an inflated price, they’d likely be willing to dump him at a discount. Under such a scenario, the Yankees could get their man for less than they would have in free agency.

The second hurdle would be Olivo’s willingness to enter an uncertain situation. Over the last five seasons, he has pretty much settled into the role of an everyday catcher, so being a part-time player might not be an attractive proposition. It remains to be seen if other teams would be willing to promise him more playing time, but if so, the Yankees would probably have to look elsewhere. The only other similar option appears to be Gerald Laird, who although a better defender than Olivo, is much weaker with the bat and would therefore require a more flexible deployment. With few better options readily available, the Yankees can’t let their pursuit of larger fish allow a minnow like Olivo to slip through the net.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Rumors, Trades, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yanks Strike Gold; Tie Franchise Record With Three Gold Glovers

November 9, 2010 by William Juliano

Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter earned their third and fifth Gold Glove, respectively.

The 2010 American League Gold Glove awards were announced today and a record three Yankees took home the hardware. Although not the trophy they were hoping to possess, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter both added another Gold Glove to their mantle, while Robinson Cano earned the honor for the first time. Although the selection of Cano and Teixeira were both widely accepted, the choice of Jeter was predictably met with derision in many quarters. That discussion has already been dissected by many others, so let’s push it aside and focus instead on the historic nature of the Yankees’ gold rush.

Since the gold glove award was created in 1957 (that first year, one selection was made for the entire major leagues), the Yankees have had three selections only two other times: in 1985, when Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield and Ron Guidry were honored, and in 1965, when Joe Pepitone, Bobby Richardson and Tom Tresh won the award. This year, however, marked the first time that three Yankee infielders took home the gold. The only other American League clubs to also have three infielders win the award were the 2000 Indians (Roberto Alomar, Travis Fryman and Omar Vizquel) as well as five Orioles’ teans from 1969 to 1975 (Mark Belanger and Brooks Robinson along side Davey Johnson for two and Bobby Grich for three).

Most Gold Gloves All Time, American League

Team	Total	Leaders
Yankees	62	Don Mattingly (9), Several (5)
Orioles	58	Brooks Robinson (16), Mark Belanger (8), Paul Blair (8)
Tigers	42	Al Kaline (10), Bill Freehan (7), Alan Trammell (4)
Twins/Senators	41	Jim Kaat (11), Kirby Puckett (6), Torii Hunter (6)
Mariners	38	Ichiro (10), Ken Griffey Jr. (10), Several (3)
Red Sox	36	Dwight Evans (8), Carl Yastrzemski (7), Fred Lynn (4)
White Sox	35	Robin Ventura (5), Jim Landis (5), Nellie Fox (5)
Rangers	33	Ivan Rodriguez (13), Jim Sundberg (6), Buddy Bell (6)
Angels	31	Mark Langston (5), Bob Boone (4), Several (3)
Indians	29	Omar Vizquel (8), Kenny Lofton (4), Several (3)
Blue Jays	25	Roberto Alomar (5), Devon White (5), T. Fernandez (4)
Athletics	19	Eric Chavez (6), Dwayne Murphy (6), Joe Rudi (3)
Royals	18	Frank White (8), Amos Otis (3), Several (1)
Brewers	9	George Scott (5), Cecil Cooper (2), Several (1)
Other*	3	Vic Power (2), Kim Kaat (1)
Rays	4	Evan Longoria (2), Carlos Pena (1), Carl Crawford (1)

* Vic Power won the award in 1958 while splitting time with the Athletics and Indians, and in 1964 while splitting time with the Twins and Angels. In 1973, Jim Kaat won the award while splitting time with the Twins and White Sox.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Don Mattingly's nine Gold Gloves are the most ever by a Yankee.

With their three honorees, the Yankees also extended their American League leading gold glove total to 62, four ahead of the second place Orioles. Although the Yankees hold the top spot overall, they only lead in total awards at two positions (pitcher and first base), while the Orioles rank ahead in three (2B, SS and 3B). The other positions are led by the Rangers (16 at catcher) and Mariners (24 in the outfield).

Most Gold Gloves All Time, American League (by Position)

Team	P	Team	C	Team	1B	Team	3B
Yankees	12	Rangers	16	Yankees	15	Orioles	16
Twins	12	Tigers	11	Brewers	7	Athletics	6
Orioles	8	Angels	6	Orioles	5	Rangers	6
Angels	5	Yankees	5	Red Sox	4	Yankees	5
White Sox	4	Twins	5	Angels	4	White Sox	5

Team	2B	Team	SS	Team	OF
Orioles	9	Orioles	11	Mariners	24
Royals	9	White Sox	9	Red Sox	22
Yankees	6	Indians	8	Tigers	16
Blue Jays	6	Yankees	5	Yankees	14
Tigers	6	Blue Jays	5	Blue Jays	13
Mariners	6	Tigers	5	Twins	13

Source: Baseball-reference.com

On a personal level, by winning his fifth gold glove, Jeter joins only Guidry, Winfield, Mattingly and Bobby Richardson as Yankees with at least that many awards. With the exception of Mattingly, who has nine, all of the others are tied at five. Jeter also remains the only Yankees shortstop to win gold, while Cano joins Richardson and Teixeira remains in the company of Mattingly, Chris Chambliss and Pepitone at first base

All-Time Yankee Gold Glovers, by Position

Player	C	Player	2B	Player	1B	Player	OF
Munson	3	Richardson	1	Mattingly	9	Winfield	5
Howard	2	Cano	1	Pepitone	3	B. Williams	4
				Teixeira	2	Murcer	1
Player	P	Player	3B	Chambliss	1	Tresh	1
Guidry	5	Nettles	2			Mantle	1
Shantz	4	Boggs	2	Player	SS	Maris	1
Mussina	3	Brosius	1	Jeter	5	Seibern	1

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged Cano, Gold Glove, Jeter, Teixeira | 1 Comment »

Hot Stove Blueprint #2: A Couple of High/Low Packages Involving Gardner and Joba

November 9, 2010 by William Juliano

As the Yankees continue to lay in waiting for the services of Cliff Lee, the Captain’s Blog continues the exercise of crafting a blueprint for the 2011 roster. In part one, I advocated a deal of A.J. Burnett for Carlos Zambrano, so now it’s time to turn to the offense.

Trade Option 1: Joba Chamberlain and Brett Gardner for Colby Rasmus

Brett Gardner’s hustle has made him a fan favorite, but it may be time for the Yankees to sell high (Photo: NY Post).

One of the nicest surprises for the Yankees in 2010 was the play of Brett Gardner. According to fangraphs.com, Gardner was worth a whopping 5.4 wins above replacement. Regardless of how much credibility you place in WAR, Gardner was an above average offensive performer playing an all-world left field in 2010.

Looking behind the numbers, however, one can see the beginning of a disturbing trend. In the second half of the season, Gardner posted a line of .232/.364/.330,which wasn’t much better than his performance in the second half of 2009 (albeit in many fewer at bats). Although some have defended Gardner’s second half swoons by citing the hand injuries he suffered in both seasons, that actually speaks to the concern. Gardner’s game is built upon speed and hustle, and that no-holds barred style has a tendency to wear a player down late in the season. Without any noticeable power, Gardner’s productivity rests solely on staying healthy and getting on base, something he hasn’t been able to do over the course of a full season.

It’s been a while since the Yankees have seen the “fist pumping Joba”, so perhaps a change of scenery is in order?

What more can be said about Joba? In the span of three seasons, he has gone from a potential top of the rotation starter to Mariano Rivera’s heir apparent to an afterthought in middle relief. Despite being only 24, it sure seems as if the ship has sailed on Joba’s days in pinstripes.

Once again, however, we need to take a closer look. In 2010, Chamberlain’s nine-inning hit and strikeout rates of 8.9 and 9.7, respectively, were both impressive. Again according to fangraphs.com, his FIP of 2.98 suggests that the right hander was more unlucky than erratic. What’s more, Chamberlain also rediscovered some of his lost velocity in relief, increasing the speed on his fastball from 92.5 mph to 94.6 mph. The talent is still clearly there, but where are the results?

Colby Rasmus was drafted by the Cardinals with the 28^th selection in the 2005 amateur draft (a pick awarded to the Cardinals as compensation for the Red Sox’ signing of Edgar Renteria). After being selected, he quickly shot up through the ranks of highly touted prospects before making his major league debut at 22 in 2009. Despite struggling in his rookie season, Rasmus was given the chance to start in 2010, and he rewarded the Cardinals with a line of .276/.361/.498 in 534 plate appearances. However, for some reason, the young outfielder’s relationship with manager Tony LaRussa went bad. As a result, it was reported that Rasmus demanded a trade. Although he later denied doing so, it was no secret that the tension between player and manager was real.

Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Yankees

Colby Rasmus’ left handed swing would fit right into the Yankees’ lineup for years to come.

Although they would be selling low on a talented arm like Chamberlain, he may simply need a change of scenery. On the other hand, Gardner’s value may never be higher, so unless the Yankees believe he still has room for improvement at the plate, it might be time to cash in on his 2010 season.

As the core of the Yankees’ offense ages, a commodity like Rasmus would be exactly what the Yankees need to replenish their lineup. Adding a left-handed centerfielder with power to a second baseman like Cano and catching prospect like Jesus Montero could give the Yankees an up-the-middle foundation similar to what they had in Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada at the start of the recent dynasty. Even if Gardner proves his 2010 was just the beginning of an ascent, and Joba rediscovers his earlier promise, adding such a component would still be well worthwhile.

Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Cardinals

Once again, a big part of the rationale behind this trade stems from the rift that may or may not still exist between LaRussa and Rasmus. If it does, the Cardinals may have no choice but to put their talented young centerfielder on the market. Although there would be plenty of competition for Rasmus, acquiring two major league ready players like Gardner and Chamberlain (who combined had a much higher WAR than Rasmus in 2010) would probably be of interest to an older Cardinals team that will be seeking to resign Albert Pujols in the offseason. In particular, one area of desperate need for the Cardinals’ offense is at leadoff hitter (.306 OBP in 2010), and Gardner would certainly fit that bill. Meanwhile, with Dave Duncan as pitching coach, St. Louis could either mold Chamberlain as a starter or turn him into their closer, replacing the 37-year old Ryan Franklin.

Because of the potential clamor for Rasmus, the Yankees might have to add a solid prospect to the deal, which shouldn’t be off the table, assuming it isn’t someone like Montero or Manny Banuelos. If that still isn’t enough to pry Rasmus away, Cashman would probably be better off turning to our second option.

Going to WAR

Player	WAR
Brett Gardner	5.4
Joba Chamberlain	1.4
Colby Rasmus	3.7

Source: fangraphs.com

Trade Option 2: Gardner and Chamberlain for Matt Kemp

Before the start of the previous two seasons, one popular rumor was a potential trade of Robinson Cano for Matt Kemp. However, after the latter’s disappointing 2010 campaign, it’s hard to imagine both players in the same class.

Not only did Kemp regress in just about every meaningful offensive category, but by most metrics, he also performed extremely poorly in the field. Adding further insult, Dodger’s GM Ned Colletti repeatedly criticized Kemp’s play, even insinuating that his commitment may have lessened after signing a new deal. In other words, the Dodgers, whose finances have been ravaged by a divorce dispute, may be very eager to part with Kemp, whose 2011 salary escalates to $7 million before heading to arbitration in 2012.

Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Yankees

Matt Kemp’s development took a step back in 2010. Could a rebound in pinstripes be in the offing?

Like Rasmus, Kemp is still a young and talented centerfielder who could be a centerpiece on the Yankees for years to come. Unlike Rasmus, however, Kemp would be a buy low candidate, meaning the Yankees would face less competition from other potential suitors. Furthermore, Kemp’s higher salary would also make his acquisition more prohibitive to other teams. As a result, the Yankees would be the team demanding that a prospect be included in the deal. Of course, considering the dysfunctional state of the Dodgers, it might even be possible for the Yankees to steal Kemp without including both Chamberlain and Gardner in the trade, but for now, we’ll assume some level of sanity in LA remains.

Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Dodgers

Even if the Dodgers were confident that Kemp would rebound from his disappointing 2010 season, the chance to acquire two cheaper players would still be compelling. Also, keep in mind that Don Mattingly was sitting in the dugout when Joba Chamberlain was dominating opposing batters in 2007. Therefore, the new Dodgers’ skipper may be more willing than most to take a chance on Chamberlain’s dominance returning.

Matt Kemp’s 2010 Season of Discontent

Year	PA	SB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	UZR*	WAR*
2009	667	81%	0.297	0.352	0.490	124	3	5.0
2010	668	56%	0.249	0.310	0.450	107	-24	0.4

Source: Baseball-reference.com and (*) fangraphs.com

Money Matter$

Option 1

Brett Gardner and Colby Rasmus each have one more season of cost control left, while Chamberlain can go before an arbitrator for the first time this off season. Considering his near minimum salary and less than stellar performance in 2010, Chamberlain probably wouldn’t be in line for much of a raise.

Option 2

Matt Kemp is the only player with a price tag included in the two potential deals. In 2011, he will make $6.95 million, after which he has one more year of arbitration eligibility before heading to free agency. In other words, even with only a solid season, Kemp could be looking at a 2012 salary of around $10 million.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Trades, Yankees | Tagged Brian Cashman, Cardinals, Dodgers | 5 Comments »

Hall Ballot Reunites Enemies Turned Friends; Reinsdorf to Vote on Boss’ Candidacy

November 9, 2010 by William Juliano

The Hall of Fame’s inaugural “Expansion ERA” ballot has been released and the Yankees are well represented. Ron Guidry, Billy Martin and Tommy John are all eligible for consideration, but the headliner is George M. Steinbrenner III. When the new “veteran’s committee” process was announced back in July, I suggested that the revised rules seemed intended for the purpose of expediting Steinbrenner’s election, and that still appears to be the case.

The appearance of Steinbrenner and Martin on the ballot together is almost too good to be true considering how inexorably the two were linked from the time Steinbrenner bought the Yankees until Martin’s untimely death on Christmas in 1989. However, an even more intriguing pairing involves one of the men who will be voting on Steinbrenner’s candidacy.

Billy Martin and George Steinbrenner in happy times. The two men are reunited as the only deceased candidates on the Hall of Fame's new Expansion Era ballot.

In order to get the posthumous nod, Steinbrenner will need a vote from 75% of the16-member panel, which the Boss would be pleased to know includes long-time friend and White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf. Steinbrenner would probably also be greatly amused by the irony of Reinsdorf sitting in judgment over his legacy because before the two became friends they were professional enemies.

Kemp caused a war of words between Steinbrenner and Reinsdorf in 1983.

The Reinsdorf/Steinbrenner feud began in the 1982 offseason when the Yankees made an aggressive play for White Sox outfielder Steve Kemp. When the ink dried on Kemp’s new five year, $5.5 million contract with the Yankees, Reinsdorf decried Steinbrenner’s fiscal irresponsibility and derisively stated that the Yankee owner was collecting bad contracts.

In addition to his public criticism, Reinsdorf also took aim at Steinbrenner by signing free agent pitcher Floyd Bannister to a five year, $4.5 million contract. The Yankees were rumored to have great interest in Bannister, so when Reinsdorf and fellow White Sox co-owner Eddie Einhorn had the last laugh with the signing, the Boss was not amused. In response to the Bannister contract, Steinbrenner fired back, telling AP, “[Reinsdorf and Einhorn] are the Abbott and Costello of baseball…a couple of pumpkins who should get their thinking straight”.

As thanks for turning that offseason’s winter meetings in Hawaii into a battle ground, baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn fined Reindorf and Einhorn $2,500, but doubled the penalty for Steinbenner. Not surprisingly, the Boss bristled at being fined twice the amount as his adversaries, stating to AP, “I’m sorry to see that Kuhn is bowing out by bearing down on the owners as usual, especially me”.

Steinbrenner would eventually see justice delayed during the 1983 season when Reinsdorf was fined another $5,000 by Kuhn for once again taking a swipe at the Yankees’ owner. While attending a party for the All Star Game, which was being played at the White Sox’ Comiskey Park, Reindorf, who had a little too much to drink, entertained the attendees by explaining how to tell when George Steinbrenner was lying. “When you see his lips move,” Reindorf informed the crowd, which included Kuhn.

The Boss had his buddy beat on World Series championships (7 to 1), but Reinsdorf evened the score with the Bulls’ six NBA titles. In 1985, Reinsdorf purchased the Bulls from an ownership group that included Steinbrenner.

Kuhn wouldn’t last as commissioner for much longer. In August 1983, he eventually resigned, washing his hands of Steinbrenner and Reinsdorf, but in his absence, the two battling owners formed a strong friendship that would last for over 25 years.

Of course, just because they were friends, didn’t mean they still didn’t enjoy taking a dig at each other. The two teams were still fond of sabotaging each other in trades (the Britt Burns deal being an excellent example), and on a personal level, Reinsdorf always enjoyed flaunting his success with the Chicago Bulls, not the least of which was because one of the men from whom he bought them was Steinbrenner.

Very few men have a greater insight into Steinbrenner’s contribution to the game of baseball than Reinsdorf. As both an enemy and a friend, he has seen the best and worst of him. It remains to be seen which side will win out when Reinsdorf weighs the balance, but either way, you can bet the Boss is keeping a close eye on his buddy from up above.

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Hall of Fame, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged George Steinbrenner | Leave a Comment »

Hot Stove Blueprint #1: Swapping Burnett for Zambrano

November 8, 2010 by William Juliano

The baseball hot stove was officially fired up on Sunday with the beginning of the free agent negotiating period.

According to numerous reports, the Yankees have already reached out to Cliff Lee’s agent to let him know an offer is forthcoming. Getting Lee’s signature on a contract has clearly been established as job one in the off season, so while Brian Cashman stays busy with that mission, we’ve decided to help him out with a blueprint for crafting the rest of the 2011 roster. Over the course of the next few days, we’ll present a series of trades, free agent acquisitions and roster adjustments that will position the Yankees for a successful run at number 28 in 2011.

Trade: AJ Burnett for Carlos Zambrano

AJ Burnett’s tenure in the Bronx has had its share of ups and downs, but mostly left everyone scratching their heads (Photo: AP).

The Yankees currently have a whole host of questions in their starting rotation. Signing Lee and having Andy Pettitte return would go along way toward answering many of them, but even if both occurred, that would still leave the enigmatic AJ Burnett in the fifth slot. Although he seems to be a pretty good teammate, the uncertainty surrounding his performance has become too great to tolerate. Even if they are able to build a strong quartet around him, the Yankees shouldn’t accept so much doubt every five days.

Wanting to trade Burnett and finding a willing partner, however, are two different things. In other words, the Yankees need to find another team with an equally high-priced enigma. The Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano seems to be exactly that man.

Since signing a five-year/$91.5 million extension in 2007, Big Z has been a major disappointment for the Cubs. Although his relative performance has remained above average, his behavior has been erratic and his commitment and conditioning frequently questioned. Those concerns culminated in a demotion to the bullpen and eventual suspension following a dugout tirade on June 25, 2010. Zambrano eventually returned to the team, and the rotation, after undergoing anger management, but you couldn’t blame the Cubs if they’ve had enough of Big Z.

AJ Burnett vs. Carlos Zambrano, Last Three-Year Comparison

	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Burnett	41	34	100	614 1/3	4.42	1.41	8.36
Zambrano	34	19	78	487 2/3	3.71	1.36	7.36

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Yankees

From the Yankees’ perspective, they’d not only rid themselves of having to constantly address Burnett’s bi-polar pitching personality, but they’d also eliminate the need to employ a personal catcher for the right hander. Although the Yankees have been successful despite Burnett’s reticence to throw to Posada, removing this potential rift from the clubhouse, especially during a time when Posada’s role will likely diminish, could be a plus.

In return, the Yankees would get a pitcher who is four years younger and marginally better, albeit in a much less competitive league and division. If the Yankees were able to keep Zambrano focused, he could have the potential to return to his All Star form. As an added bonus, Joe Girardi was a teammate of Big Z for two seasons, so he might be in a good position to get the most out of the volatile righty.

Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Cubs

Carlos Zambrano has given the Cubs more than few headaches over the years, including several confrontations with teammates, managers and umpires.

Although the Cubs would be acquiring an older pitcher coming off a very bad season, Burnett has actually been more durable, even taking into account Zambrano’s demotion and suspension. Also, from a scout’s perspective, Burnett would probably out-rate Zambrano, and that might make him an attractive project for Mike Quade. Although Burnett’s “dominant stuff” may have lost its effectiveness after five seasons in the AL East, it could translate very well to the weak NL Central.

The new Cubs’ skipper has said all the right things about Zambrano, but the opportunity to start fresh without a significant vestige of the team’s troubled past might ultimately be the most compelling part of the proposed deal. Do the Cubs really want to risk another midseason blowup from the cantankerous Zambrano? If not, they might be more than willing to swap headaches with the Yankees.

Money Matter$

Carlos Zambrano will make $17.9 million in 2011 and $18 million in 2012, while Burnett will earn $16.5 million each season. So, the Cubs would come out ahead by approximately $3 million over the next two years. In 2013, however, Zambrano’s contract contains a $19.3 million vesting option, while Burnett’s deal holds another guaranteed year at $16.5 million.

From the Cubs standpoint, they’d enjoy a short-term savings, but because Zambrano’s option isn’t likely to vest (top-2 in 2011 CY Young voting or top-4 in 2012 CY Young voting), they’d pay for that discount in the long-run. As a result, the Yankees would likely have to include a significant amount of cash in the deal contingent upon Zambrano’s option not being triggered. How much exactly would likely be determined by each team’s respective desire to make the deal, but the Yankees should not be averse to chipping in at least half of Burnett’s 2013 salary.

Contractual Obligations: Burnett vs. Zambrano

	Zambrano	Burnett
2011	17,875,000	16,500,000
2012	18,000,000	16,500,000
2013	19,250,000*	16,500,000
Total	55,125,000	49,500,000

* Zambrano’s 2013 option vests if the he finishes in the top-2 in CY Young award voting in 2011 or the top-4 in CY Young award voting in 2012, and is healthy at the end of the 2012.
Source: Cot’s Baseball Contracts

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Trades, Yankees | Tagged Brian Cashman, Carlos Zambrano, Cubs | 7 Comments »

Renteria Joins List of Unlikely World Series MVPs, Then the Unemployment Line

November 5, 2010 by William Juliano

Only days after being awarded the World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria was given a pink slip (Photo: AP).

When the Giants announced that they would not be picking up Edgar Renteria’s $9.5 million option for 2011, he became the second consecutive World Series MVP to find himself looking for work in the offseason. Although Renteria’s postseason heroics definitely put the Giants in an awkward position, the decision to cut him loose was really a no-brainer. It’s not easy being an unlikely hero with a lucrative team option.

Considering the performance of the Giants’ pitching staff, the selection of Renteria as World Series MVP has to qualify as one of the biggest surprises in the history of the award. So, with that in mind, I’ve compiled a list of the most improbable World Series heroes.

(Note: The World Series MVP award originated in 1955 and was originally voted upon by the editors of Sport magazine. In addition to a trophy, the honor also included a new car, which was a serious financial consideration in the era before large contracts. Today, the World Series MVP is voted upon by a larger pool of media members and officials, and includes a charitable contribution).

Edgar Renteria: 2010 World Series (Giants over Rangers, 4 games to 1)

2010	PA	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
World Series	18	6	2	6	.412	.444	.765
Reg. Season	267	26	3	22	.276	.332	.707

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Background

At his best, no one would think twice about Edgar Renteria winning a World Series MVP. In his prime, he was a solid defensive SS with speed and an above average bat for the position. He also was the author of a walk-off World Series winning hit in 1997 as well as a strong .333/.412/.533 effort in the 2004 Fall Classic. In 2010, however, Renteria was coming off two awful seasons and by August had lost his job. Because of the poor defense of Pablo Sandoval, the Giants reinstalled Renteria at shortstop in the NLCS, but his offense showed no signs of a rejuvenation. Against the Phillies, Renteria hit .063/.118/.063 in 18 plate appearances. So, if the Rangers still don’t realize what hit them, you can easily see why.

Key Moments

Game 1: Solo HR in the bottom of the fifth, breaking a scoreless tie in a pitchers’ duel between Matt Cain and C.J. Wilson.
Game 5: Three-run HR in the top of the seventh against Cliff Lee. The blast provided the Giants with their only runs in the clincher.

David Eckstein: 2006 World Series (Cardinals over Tigers, 4 games to 1)

2006	PA	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
World Series	23	3	0	4	.364	.391	.500
Reg. Season	552	68	2	23	.292	.350	.344

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Background

Scott Brosius celebrates game 3 HR off Trevor Hoffman in 1998 World Series.

Because of his size and less than impressive raw talent, most people in the baseball world doubted David Eckstein over his entire career. So, it really shouldn’t be a surprise to see him show up on a list like this. Still, despite having a very solid season in 2005, Eckstein’s 2006 campaign was more in line with the two disappointing years that ended his Angels’ career. What’s more, his production over the first two rounds of the playoffs was a less than inspiring .195/.244/.293. Nonetheless, with all eyes trained on the monstrous Albert Pujols, it was the diminutive Eckstein who took home the hardware. It should be noted, however, that with the Cardinals’ having a team OPS of .675 and no standout pitching performance in the series, Eckstein really won the MVP by default.

Key Moment

Game 4: Run scoring double in the eighth inning against hard throwing Joel Zumaya that provided margin of victory.

Scott Brosius: 1998 World Series (Yankees over Padres, 4 games to 0)

1998	PA	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
World Series	17	3	2	6	.471	.471	.824
Reg. Season	603	86	19	98	.300	.371	.472

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Background

In 1997, Scott Brosius had an OPS+ of 53 and WAR of -0.8, so when the Yankees acquired him in the offseason, it had many followers of the team scratching their heads. The Yankees must have seen something in Brosius because he responded with an outstanding campaign in the Yankees’ record setting 114-48 regular season. He also hit very well in both prior rounds of the playoffs, so his presence on this list really stems from the depths of his previous season as well as his presence in a lineup chock full of stars.

Key Moment

Game 3: Already trailing 2-0 in the series, the Padres had to win game three at home. So, when the first sign of trouble hit in the eighth inning, Bruce Boche immediately went to Trevor Hoffman, his dominant closer who had 53 saves in the regular season. After an out and a walk, Brosius sent a 2-2 changeup over the wall in center, catapulting the Yankees into the lead and setting the stage for a series sweep.

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged MVP, World Series | 2 Comments »

Pinch Blogging at TheYankeeU

November 4, 2010 by William Juliano

Earlier today, the Captain’s Blog was invited by TheYankeeU to address some of the issues involved with comparing MLB and NFL TV ratings. If you haven’t checked it out already, by all means head on over. And, while you’re there, be sure to enjoy all of the other great work being done over at TYU.