Feeds:
Posts
Comments

ALDS Game 1: Yankees vs. Twins

October 6, 2010 by William Juliano

vs. Francisco Liriano PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Derek Jeter SS 15 0.385 0.467 0.692 1 3
Nick Swisher RF 18 0.294 0.333 0.412 0 0
Mark Teixeira 1B 18 0.176 0.222 0.353 1 1
Alex Rodriguez 3B 13 0.111 0.385 0.111 0 1
Robinson Cano 2B 14 0.308 0.357 0.385 0 0
Marcus Thames DH 15 0.357 0.400 1.000 3 4
Jorge Posada C 8 0.429 0.500 0.571 0 0
Curtis Granderson CF 25 0.182 0.250 0.364 1 3
Brett Gardner LF 9 0.333 0.333 0.556 0 3
Total 135 0.273 0.326 0.488 6 15
             
vs. C.C. Sabathia PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Denard Span CF 7 0.286 0.286 0.429 0 0
Orlando Hudson 2B 9 0.222 0.222 0.222 0 0
Joe Mauer C 28 0.231 0.286 0.308 0 2
Delmon Young RF 18 0.167 0.167 0.222 0 0
Jim Thome DH 30 0.148 0.233 0.593 4 6
Michael Cuddyer 1B 59 0.218 0.271 0.327 1 7
Jason Kubel RF 5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Danny Valencia 3B 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
J.J. Hardy SS 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 156 0.197 0.231 0.347 5 15

Posted in Game Preview, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

ALDS Preview: Yankees Getting Brooms Ready?

October 6, 2010 by William Juliano

I am as superstitious a fan as they come. I also tend to be a lot more guarded in my expectations, at least in comparison to the unmitigated arrogance expressed by the more casual Yankee fan. However, no matter how hard I try to be more even handed in my assessment of tonight’s ALDS, I still can’t help coming to the same conclusion: the New York Yankees are a much better team than the Minnesota Twins. Whether its hitting, pitching or defense, the Yankees seem to have the edge.

At the plate, Yankee batters posted a major league leading wOBA of .347, a good pace ahead of the Twins at .334. In addition, the Yankees have a more diversified offense. Not only did the Bronx Bombers belt 60 more homers, but they also stole 35 more bases while only being caught two more times. What’s more, the Yankees even play small ball as much as the Twins: the two teams were only separated by five sacrifice bunts. About the only thing the Twins do appreciably better is put the ball in play (967 strikeouts to the Yankees’1,136), but, then again, that has led to a league leading 159 double plays, compared to the Yankees’ 124.

Offense Comparison, Season Totals

  BB% K% OBP SLG ISO Spd wRC wRAA wOBA
Yankees 10.4% 20.4% 0.350 0.436 0.169 5.3 865 132 0.347
Twins 8.9% 17.4% 0.341 0.422 0.148 5 785 66 0.334

Source: Fangraphs.com

Much has been made of the thin Yankees rotation, but what about the Twins’? Even including the disastrous seasons of AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez, the Yankees’ pitching staff still recorded a better ERA+ than the Twins, albeit by a slight margin. However, if you break the comparison down to only include the individual stats of each prospective starter, the edge once again seems to swing more in the Yankees’ favor, especially when you consider the park factors for each team’s home stadium.

Pitching Comparison, Prospective Starters in 2010

  W L ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Yankees 82 28 3.41 908.5 1.25 8.18 0.90 2.85 7.35 2.58
Twins 65 46 3.83 894.6 1.28 9.16 0.78 2.29 6.69 2.92

Note: The statistics for pitchers scheduled to throw a second time have been counted twice.
Source: Fangraphs.com

On an even more granular level, the Yankees have a decided advantage when comparing the relative performance of each team’s current roster against the scheduled starters in the series. Based on the charts below, perhaps the Twins would have been wise to go with Carl Pavano in the series opener? In any event, C.C. Sabathia gives the Yankees a considerable edge.

Yankees Starters vs. Current Twins Batters

  PA HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Sabathia 214 5 18 9 54 0.229 0.272 0.353 0.626
Pettitte 184 4 17 8 29 0.277 0.313 0.416 0.729
Hughes 40 0 3 5 6 0.333 0.400 0.394 0.794
Total 438 9 38 22 89 0.258 0.290 0.383 0.673

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Twins Starters vs. Current Yankees Batters

  PA HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Liriano 156 6 17 13 46 0.266 0.338 0.475 0.812
Pavano 120 4 12 6 26 0.245 0.288 0.409 0.697
Duensing 58 2 9 9 5 0.292 0.397 0.479 0.876
Blackburn 156 4 19 14 19 0.305 0.368 0.447 0.815
Total 490 16 57 42 96 0.276 0.333 0.450 0.782

Source: Baseball-reference.com

In the bullpen, the two teams are relatively comparable from a statistical perspective. However, with all due respect to Jon Rauch, the Yankees have a monumental advantage in the ninth inning. Mariano Rivera’s post season performance has been historic to say the least, and until he proves otherwise, there is no reason to suggest that he won’t continue his dominance this October.

Bullpen Comparison, 2010 Totals

  ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP LOB%
Yankees 3.47 7.69 3.61 2.13 0.92 0.232 1.25 77.0%
Twins 3.49 6.74 2.95 2.28 0.87 0.254 1.29 75.9%

Source: Fangraphs.com

Probably to the surprise of many, the Yankees are also a better defensive team than the Twins, according to defensive efficiency (.707 to .688). Although UZR/150 favors the Twins as a team, it is worth noting that the Yankees have a decided edge in the outfield (8.6 to -3.7). Considering the spacious outfield in Target Field, the Yankees ability to run down balls could prove to be a deciding factor.

Yankees, Twins Outfield Defense

Yankees Innings UZR/150
Brett Gardner 1211 28.7
Curtis Granderson 1120 10.3
Nick Swisher 1103 -0.9
Austin Kearns 236 5.7
Greg Golson 75 29.2
Twins Innings UZR/150
Denard Span 1349 5.9
Delmon Young 1277 -10.8
Jason Kubel 801 -19
Michael Cuddyer 550 -18.6
Jason Repko 306 51.5

Source: Fangraphs.com

Prediction: Yankees in three games

It would be easy to hedge my bet and give Minnesota Twins a game or two, but all of the data and every instinct suggest that the Yankees could be poised for another sweep of the Twins. Of course, being baseball, anything can happen. The Twins are, in fact, a very good team…just not as good as the Yankees. If they were to win the series, it certainly wouldn’t send shockwaves, but make no mistake, it would absolutely be an upset.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Predictions, Yankees | Tagged | Leave a Comment »

Red October: Cincinnati to Sink Phillies’ World Series Hopes

October 6, 2010 by William Juliano

Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

Game 1: Edison Volquez vs. Roy Halladay
Game 2: Bronson Arroyo vs. Roy Oswalt
Game 3: Johnny Cueto vs. Cole Hamels
Game 4*: Edison Volquez vs. Roy Halladay
Game 5*: Bronson Arroyo vs. Roy Oswalt
*Projected and if necessary.

Because the Phillies have so many impact left handed hitters, the idea that the Reds will be hampered by their all-righty rotation has emerged as a popular misconception. Despite the presence of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez in the middle of the lineup, the Phillies still managed to record a higher OPS against southpaws (.767 vs. .736 against righties). Part of the reason for this contradiction is the Phillies’ lefties do not mash righties. In fact, right handed swinging Jayson Werth is the only regular with an OPS above .900 against them. Meanwhile, the Phillies big lefties seem to handle southpaws just fine. In the regular season, Utley had an OPS of over 1.000 against lefties, while Ryan Howard checked in at .826. Their production added to the .900-plus OPS output of guys like Victorino and Ruiz make the Phillies much more formidable when facing pitchers throwing from the port side.

In addition to preferring lefties, the Phillies lineup also seems to enjoy the fastball. According to fangraphs.com, six of the Phillies’ regulars feast on number one. Unfortunately for them, the Reds’ starters are not very big on throwing heat. Both Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez threw around 55% fastballs in 2010, while Arroyo only went with the express 39.5% of the time. Because all three Reds’ pitchers making their living with off speed pitches, it could spell trouble for the fastball hungry Phillies lineup.

Phillies Lineup, by Pitch Value

  wFB wSL wCT wCB wCH
Jayson Werth 20.2 0.3 1.6 1.1 7.5
Ryan Howard 19.3 3.7 -3.9 4 -4.7
Chase Utley 16 4.1 0.6 4.8 0
Shane Victorino 15.3 -0.5 1 -2 -8.3
Carlos Ruiz 12.2 0.9 -0.3 0.3 1.3
Placido Polanco 8.1 -5.7 -2 2.5 -1.7
Jimmy Rollins 0.1 1.9 -1.2 -0.4 0.8
Raul Ibanez -2.7 -2.8 -0.9 4.5 7.6

Source: Fangraphs.com

Reds Rotation, by Pitch Selection and Value

  FB%  SL% CT% CB% CH%
Bronson Arroyo 39.5% 13.6% 7.3% 14.6% 25.0%
Johnny Cueto 55.2% 26.7% 8.2%   10.0%
Edinson Volquez 56.7% 1.4%   19.1% 22.8%
           
  wFB wSL wCT wCB wCH
Bronson Arroyo 5.7 5.7 0.9 10.4 4.1
Johnny Cueto -0.5 -1.7 6.9   3.4
Edinson Volquez -2.1 0   2.3 1.4

Source: Fangraphs.com

The Phillies aren’t likely to dominate the Reds with their bats, but that’s not really how they played all season. Although the team did experience a significant increase in offense performance over the final month, the Phillies were still a middling offense over the entire regular season. Instead, what fueled the two-time defending NL champions was an outstanding starting rotation. In the NLDS, however, they will be facing the NL’s best offense in terms of runs per game, slugging and OPS+, among other stats. Even more impressive, they have performed well above league average against both righties and lefties. Led by potential MVP Joey Votto, the Reds feature a malleable lineup of veterans and youngsters. The Reds also bring one the strongest and most tested benches into the post season, as five “backup players” have produced around or above league average in at least 180 plate appearances. As a result, Dusty Baker could have the upper hand when it comes to late game substitutions.

Another advantage for the Reds lineup is it features an eclectic group of hitters. Unlike the Phillies who feast on the fastball, the Reds lineup consists of hitters who handle a variety of pitches. Because the Phillies projected three starters also do not rely on the fastball, the Reds’ offensive flexibility could prove to be another important competitive advantage.

Reds Lineup, by Pitch Value

  wFB wSL wCT wCB wCH
Joey Votto 39.3 8.2 1.2 0.9 4
Ramon Hernandez 9.9 -4.1 1.4 0.6 -2.5
Jonny Gomes 8.1 -1.7 5.4 0.8 -5.4
Scott Rolen 7.1 -1.2 -0.9 5.9 7.7
Brandon Phillips 6.4 -5.8 0 -0.5 8.2
Jay Bruce 5.3 -5.1 2.5 4.3 4.2
Miguel Cairo 4.9 -2.5 -1 0.6 1.2
Laynce Nix -0.2 0.4 1.8 0.3 -1.4
Ryan Hanigan -0.9 7.5 -0.3 1.6 -1.9
Orlando Cabrera -2.2 -4.2 -1.8 0.4 -2.8
Chris Heisey -2.5 6.2 1.9 -4.2 -1.7
Drew Stubbs -2.9 14.2 -0.6 -4.4 -1.2
Paul Janish -3.5 0.9 1.8 -0.5 0.7

Source: Fangraphs.com

Phillies Rotation, by Pitch Selection and Value

  FB%  SL% CT% CB% CH%
Roy Oswalt 55.4% 11.5%   12.7% 20.3%
Cole Hamels 54.3%   14.7% 8.2% 22.8%
Roy Halladay 37.4%   34.2% 16.9% 11.5%
           
  wFB wSL wCT wCB wCH
Roy Oswalt 11.8 2.1   0 9.5
Cole Hamels 11.5   -1 1.3 8.8
Roy Halladay 6.5   18.1 8.9 6.1

Source: Fangraphs.com

While the Phillies have a decided advantage in terms of overall talent, the matchups seem to favor the Reds more than one would think at first glance. As a result, this series could come down to which bullpen is best able to hold a lead in the late innings. For the Phillies, that means Brad Lidge must maintain his second half resurgence. Since the All Star Break, Lidge has earned 21 saves while holding opposing batters to a .532 OPS. Meanwhile, a secret weapon for the Reds could be Aroldis Chapman. Although the Phillies have had success against lefties and as a group seem to prefer hitting the fastball, they’ve likely never seen a pitcher like Chapman. With his 100-plus mph fastball, Chapman has the potential to become an important part of the Reds’ bullpen, much in the same way Francisco Rodriguez burst on the scene for the Angels in the 2002 post season.

Prediction: Reds in Five Games

Roy Oswalt has pitched excellently since being traded over from the Astros, but while in Houston the right hander surrendered nine runs in 12 innings against the Reds. A mostly fastball and changeup pitcher, Oswalt could be vulnerable to a Reds lineup that has several hitters who perform well against both pitches. As a result, look for the Reds to win both games he is tentatively scheduled to start, meaning Cincinnati will need to either steal one game from Roy Halladay or find a way to beat Cole Hamels. Either task won’t be easy, but with a deep lineup like the Reds, I’ll take my chances for one late game comeback.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Predictions | Tagged | 2 Comments »

Quick Prediction: Rangers To Sweep Rays

October 6, 2010 by William Juliano

Overview:

For some reason, the Rays have emerged as a decided favorite in their ALDS showdown with the Rangers, despite the two teams being relatively equal in most facets of the game. In fact, based on ERA+ and wOBA, the Rangers actually come out ahead. Although the Rays rate better on defense, their advantage is not to the degree that would mitigate all other factors.

Tale of the Tape

  wOBA ERA+ UZR/150
Rays 0.333 110 5.0
Rangers 0.328 104 1.6

Source: Fangraphs.com

Of course, season long performance loses a lot of its relevance in a short series. In this case, the most important factors for the Rangers (the acquisition of Cliff Lee and health of Josh Hamilton) would be disguised in the regular season statistics. Meanwhile, for the Rays, their most prominent regular season strength (the depth of their pitching staff) seems as if it started to crumble down the stretch. Because the teams are really so closely matched, this series seems as if it has the potential to turn on the performance of each teams’ best player.

Key Player for the Rays: David Price

While the rest of the Rays rotation was crumbling in September, David Price was a rock. However, Price is now entering unchartered territory as the lefty approaches a 50 inning increase over his previous season’s workload. As the innings continue to mount on Price’s young arm, it’s hard to say how he will respond. With Cliff Lee being his game one mound opponent, even a slight slip in his game could prove costly to the Rays. In the event Tampa should drop game 1, they’ll then have to turn to the veteran duo of Matt Garza and James Shields. The only problem with that strategy is both were awful coming down the stretch. In September, Garza and Shields posted ERAs of 5.88 and 7.59, respectively.

Key Player for the Rangers: Josh Hamilton

The Rangers offense does not feature the same dynamic lineup of year’s past. Instead, much of the power is centered around the trio of Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero and Hamilton. As the only lefty of the group, Hamilton has emerged as the focal point of the Rangers’ attack. Without him, the team struggled in September, so for the Rangers to win, they’ll need their MVP candidate to be fully healthy. Otherwise, Texas will find itself vulnerable to the Rays preponderance of right handed pitchers.

Prediction: Rangers in Three

If Cliff Lee pitches anything like he did in the 2009 post season, the Rangers could be in line for a sweep. The biggest problem for the Rays is even if Price can pitch as well as Lee, he isn’t as likely to pitch as long. Because both teams have relatively strong and diverse bullpens, the series will likely come down to which rotation holds up its end of the bargain. Considering Shields’ and Garza’s late season struggles, a loss in the first game could quickly snowball into a sweep. Game one will definitely be a close one, but if Lee can prevail, I like the chances of that happening.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Predictions | Tagged | 1 Comment »

Five Key Questions Faced by Yanks This October

October 6, 2010 by William Juliano

Can Boone Logan Do a Damaso Marte Impersonation?

Can Boone Logan get as many big outs as Damaso Marte?

This time last year, Yankee fans were scratching their heads over the decision to place Damaso Marte on the post season roster, much in the same way they may be perplexed by this year’s inclusion of guys like Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley. A 9.45 ERA in 13 1/3 innings will elicit that kind of response. Of course, we now know how that decision turned out. For those who may have forgotten, just ask Ryan Howard. I am sure he remembers that Marte was near perfect in the 2009 post season, retiring 12 of the 14 batters he faced, including an unblemished 2 2/3 innings with five strikeouts in the World Series.

This year, the Yankees will look to Boone Logan to fill the role of lefty specialist. Unlike Marte, however, Logan excelled in the regular season, pitching to a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. What’s more, Logan was dominant against left handed hitters. In 91 plate appearances against lefties, Logan kept the opposition to an OPS of .501. Therefore, if Joe Mauer, Jim Thome or Jason Kubel come up in a big spot, there’s a great chance Logan will called upon to face them.

Will Logan take his place among Graeme Lloyd, Mike Stanton and Marte as a lefty killer in the post season? The answer to that question could go along way toward determining how deep the Yankees play into October.

Will the Yankees Finally Miss Matsui and Damon?

Even with Nick Johnson missing most of the season and Curtis Granderson struggling over the first four months, the Yankees’ offense still managed to compensate for the losses of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. Will the same be true in the post season?

Who will be the Yanks' MVP this October?

Matsui’s 2.027 OPS in the 2009 World Series speaks for itself. Obviously, the Yankees will not be able to replace that. Before his outburst against the Phillies, however, Matsui had produced a sub-.700 OPS in four of his previous five post season series. Even though his cumulative post season totals are all very good, Matsui was far from consistent in October. The same holds true for Johnny Damon, who has had just as many series with an OPS below .700 as above .900.

The point isn’t to denigrate the contributions of Matsui and Damon, but to point out that performance in the post season can be somewhat variable. There is no reason why Curtis Granderson and Lance Berkman can’t have a big series this October, but by the same token, no one should be surprised if they do not. The bottom line is the Yankees have replaced Damon and Matsui with accomplished hitters, so their success or failure should not be judged through the prism of whom they are replacing.

Will Alexander the Great Conquer October Again?

Saying Alex Rodriguez had a monster post season in 2009 would be a gross understatement. The much maligned Yankees third baseman not only shed the image of not being clutch, but emerged from October with an aura of invincibility. Of course, Arod had put up big numbers in October before, but for some reason, he came to be defined by his struggles in the 2005 and 2006 ALDS.

Will Arod have an ALDS identical to last year's series against the Twins?

What Arod will show up this post season? If his strong September (.295/.375/.600 with 9 HR) is any indication, the Yankees could be in line for another magic carpet ride. Although the Yankees can’t expect Arod to repeat his 2009 post season, there is a benefit in knowing that questions no longer swirl around the cleanup hitter. An even bigger benefit will come from an increased contribution by Mark Teixeira, whose struggles last post season were completely obscured by Arod’s amazing performance. With Robinson Cano thrown into the mix, the Yankees have a very strong middle of the order, so the burden shouldn’t have to fall on any one player’s shoulders. Should that be the case, at least we now know Arod’s are broad enough to carry the load.

Is Andy Dandy?

Another parade could depend on the health of Andy Pettitte.

Too much has been made of the “disarray” in the Yankees starting rotation. They still have C.C. Sabathia taking the ball in game 1, and Phil Hughes was just as effective in 2010 as AJ Burnett was in 2009. So, the only potential difference between this year and last is Andy Pettitte, or more precisely, which Pettitte will take the mound.

If the Yankees get the pitcher who was on his way to having a Cy Young season before being injured, the rotation could actually be stronger than last year’s. If, however, Pettitte is still hampered by the lingering effects of his injured groin, the Yankees will have to scramble. The only way to answer that question is to give Pettitte the ball. So, after game 2 of the ALDS, we should have a pretty good idea about the Yankees’ chances to repeat.

Catch Me, If You Can?

Jorge Posada's arm could be just as important as his bat during the post season.

With AJ Burnett not part of the ALDS rotation, the plan is to play Jorge Posada every game. From an offensive perspective, that’s a great thing. However, it does raise some red flags on defense. Posada not only ranked at the bottom of the league in terms of nabbing base stealers, but he also ranked near the top in passed balls. Making matters worse, Posada’s backup, Francisco Cervelli, hasn’t been any better behind the plate.

In the ALDS, only Denard Span and Orlando Hudson are significant threats to run, so the Yankees vulnerability behind the plate may not come into play. If the Yankees, advance, however, you can bet that either the Rangers or Rays will plan to run the Yankees out of the series. As a result, it will be incumbent on the pitching staff to hold runners, or even better, keep them off base altogether. There is no Jose Molina this time around, so defense at catcher could wind up being the Yankees’ biggest Achilles heel.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged | 1 Comment »

Countdown of Yankees’ 10 Best Regular Season Wins in 2010

October 5, 2010 by William Juliano

Even though the baseball season is a marathon, every game can prove to be vital. Just ask the San Diego Padres, or any member of the Yankees who was actually interested in winning the division. Thanks to the wild card, however, the Yankees still have October baseball in their future. But, before looking forward to the post season, let’s take one last look back at the 10 best victories of the regular season.

10. September 8: Yankees 3 Orioles 2 at Yankee Stadium
WP: Joba Chamberlain; LP: Koji Uehara

The Yankees entered the game with a three-game losing streak and a season long nine-game road trip on the horizon. Trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Alex Rodriguez led off with a single to right and one batter later Nick Swisher sent a 2-0 changeup from Koji Uehara over the wall in left, giving the Yankees a walk off and helping to avert a home sweep at the hands of the Orioles for the first time since 1986.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

9. June 23: Yankees 8 Diamondback 6 (10 innings) at Chase Field
WP: Mariano Rivera; LP: Carlos Rosa

If it wasn’t played so poorly by both teams, this game would rank higher on the list, but the dramatic ending, which included a Houdini act by Mariano Rivera, still makes it standout as a highlight from the regular season. In the game, Dontrelle Willis walked seven batters over 2 1/3 innings, but the Yankees only managed to score two runs. Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez, who seemed to have turned his season around, reverted back to his early season form, surrendering four runs in five innings. Faced with an embarrassing defeat and series loss at the hands of the lowly DBacks, the Yankees rallied to tie the game on an Arod sacrifice fly in the ninth and then took the lead in the bottom of the tenth on a Curtis Granderson home run. The tenth inning ended with Mariano Rivera at the plate, much to the amusement of his teammates on the bench. No one was laughing, however, when the Dbacks loaded the bases in the bottom of the inning, but Rivera managed to pitch out of the jam and preserve the victory.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

8. September 17: Yankees 4 Orioles 3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
WP: David Robertson; LP: Koji Uehara; Save: Mariano Rivera

For the second time in two weeks, the Yankees beat Orioles closer Koji Uehara with a ninth inning homerun. This time, it was Alex Rodriguez’ three run blast in the top of the ninth inning that helped erase a potential defeat, which would have been the Yankees ninth in their last 11 games. In the fateful at bat, which took place with two outs, Arod worked the count to 3-2 and took a pitch close enough to be called a game-ending strike three. After receiving the favorable call, Arod flashed a sly smile toward the Orioles dugout and then proceeded to hit the next pitch deep into the left field stands.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

7. April 7: Yankees 3 Red Sox 1 (10 innings) at Fenway Park
WP: Chan Ho Park; LP: Jonathan Papelbon; Save: Mariano Rivera

The rubber game of the opening series of the season was a pitchers’ duel as John Lackey and Andy Pettitte each pitched six strong innings. After falling behind 1-0 in the third, the Yankees finally knotted the score in the seventh when Nick Swisher singled in a run off Daniel Bard, but the score remained tied until the tenth inning. In one of his rare effective appearances with the Yankees, Chan Ho Park turned in three innings scoreless innings of relief, setting the stage for a lead off homerun by Curtis Granderson in the tenth inning. The Yankees eventually tacked on another run against Jonathan Papelbon in a game that foreshadowed the Boston closer’s season long struggles against the Yankees. Papelbon would end the season at 0-3 with an ERA of 6.97 and OPS against of 1.020 OPS in 10 games versus the Bronx Bombers.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

6. May 17: Yankees 11 Red Sox 9 at Yankee Stadium
WP: Javier Vazquez; LP: Jonathan Papelbon

After jumping out to a 5-0 lead in the first inning by battering Daisuke Matsuzaka, Phil Hughes had his first real hiccup of the season and the Red Sox eventually rallied to take the lead by scoring three runs off Chan Ho Park. Now trailing 9-7 in the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees renewed acquaintances with Jonathan Papelbon and picked up where they had left off in their last meeting. The Yankees immediately jumped on Papelbon with a double by Brett Gardner. Then, after a deep fly out by Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez tied the game with another long drive that went even further. In what started to resemble batting practice, Robinson Cano flew out to deep center just before Francisco Cervelli was hit by a pitch. The errant toss brought Marcus Thames to the plate, and he sent a liner into the left field stands for a dramatic walk off victory, marking the first time Papelbon surrendered two home runs in the same inning. The victory also made a winner out of Javier Vazquez, who pitched one-third inning in relief after being sent to the bullpen because of his early season struggles.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

5. September 14: Yankees 8 Rays 7 at Tropicana Field
WP: David Robertson; LP: Dan Wheeler; Save: Mariano Rivera

One day after surrendering first place for the first time since June 13, the Yankees jumped out to a 6-0 lead against the Rays, but then saw it all disappear when rookie Ivan Nova folded and the Rays scored seven runs in the fifth. The Yankees immediately tied the game in sixth, but couldn’t pull ahead until the tenth inning when Jorge Posada hit a mammoth solo homerun to break the deadlock. The previous day, the Yankees had lost an extra inning affair to the Rays with most of their better relievers left in the bullpen, so securing the victory became of paramount importance. Normally, such situations call for the golden right arm of Mariano Rivera, but this time, it was Greg Golson’s fastball that saved the day. With Carl Crawford on second and one out in the bottom of the tenth, Matt Joyce lofted a fly ball to medium right. As Golson awkwardly approached the ball, Crawford tagged up at second and made his way to third. The only problem was Golson fired a one hop laser to the waiting glove of Arod, who slapped the tag on Crawford for a game ending 9-5 double play.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

4. September 26: Yankees 4 Red Sox 3 at Yankee Stadium
WP: Boone Logan; LP: Hideki Okajima

The Yankees entered the final home game of the 2010 season in the midst of a four game losing streak. Because of the skid, the Yankees’ chances of winning the division seemed to be slipping away, and even worse, the possibility of the Red Sox making a race of the wild card started to look like a real possibility. Faced with the importance of the game, the Yankees scrapped earlier plans to have Dustin Moseley make the start and instead opted to go with Phil Hughes. The young right hander rewarded the decision by only allowing one run over six innings, but Daisuke Matsuzaka was even better, holding the Yankees to no runs and two hits over the same span. In the seventh, however, the Yankees took a 2-1 lead when Alex Rodriguez belted yet another clutch homerun. The Yankees called on Mariano Rivera to slam the door in the ninth, but the Red Sox exploited Jorge Posada’s throwing arm by stealing four bases, which helped to build two runs and retake the lead. In the bottom of the inning, the Yankees once again rallied to tie the game off Jonathan Papelbon, but squandered a chance to win the game by leaving the bases loaded. In the bottom of the tenth, the Yankees loaded the bases once again, and this time a walk-off walk by Juan Miranda brought the game to dramatic, albeit anticlimactic victory. Although the Yankees would not wind up winning the division, they could still point to the victory as the one that ensured they would make the playoffs.

3. June 27: Yankees 8 Dodgers 6 at Dodger Stadium
WP: Mariano Rivera LP: Ramon Troncoso

The Yankees interleague series against the Dodgers was dominated by tabloid story lines concerning Joe Torre and his relationship with the Yankees organization. Amidst all the hoopla, however, were some very interesting games. The rubber match was a Sunday night affair, and the early indications suggested a long flight back to New York for the Yankees. Down 5-0 early and facing lefty wunderkind Clayton Kershaw, the Yankees chipped away with two runs in the seventh, but still found themselves trailing 6-2 in the ninth. Demonstrating the importance of the game, Torre summoned Jonathan Broxton despite the lack of a save situation. Unfortunately for Torre, Broxton couldn’t protect the inflated lead as the Yankees rallied to tie the game at 6-6. The Yankees made good on the comeback in the tenth inning when Robinson Cano belted a two run homer off Ramon Troncoso. The victory was an important one for the Yankees, but to many, it also marked a negative turning point in the Dodgers’ season. Before the two parties’ eventual détente during the unveiling of George Steinbrenner’s monument on September 20, you couldn’t blame some in the Yankees organization if they regarded the victory as a form of karmic payback.

2. August 11: Yankees 7 Rangers 6 at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
WP: Kerry Wood; LP: Neftali Feliz; Save: Mariano Rivera

After losing a tough extra inning game to the Rangers on the previous night, the Yankees now had to face Cliff Lee for the first time since the Mariners spurned Brian Cashman’s efforts to obtain him and instead dealt the ace lefty to Texas. In other words, it was the perfect opportunity for the Rangers to send an October calling card with a mini-sweep of the Yankees. By building a 6-1 lead, the Rangers seemed poised to deliver the message they wanted, but the Yankees returned it to sender and made a statement of their own. Up until the sixth, Lee  had been cruising with the lead, but the Yankees eventually knocked him out of the game with three runs scored over the sixth and seventh. The Yankees then inched closer with a run in the eighth before finally tying and taking the lead on singles by Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames in the ninth. In the bottom of the inning, Elvis Andrus tripled on Mariano Rivera’s first pitch of the ninth, but the Yankees magical closer stranded him there and slammed the door on a thrilling victory. Unfortunately, the Rangers would end up delivering a much bigger message to the Yankees by sweeping a three game series in September.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

1. July 16: Yankees 5 Rays 4 at Yankee Stadium
WP:  Mariano Rivera; LP: Randy Choate

The Yankees opened the second half of the season against the team closely chasing them in the standing, but that’s the not the reason the game was so important. Just four days earlier, the Yankees legendary principal owner George M. Steinbrenner passed away, and the Friday night contest against the Rays was the first opportunity for the organization and its fans to pay tribute. After emotional pre-game ceremonies, a sluggish beginning to the game evolved into a seesaw battle in the middle innings. The Yankees tied the score in the sixth on back-to-back homers by Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada, but in the seventh, the Rays jumped back out ahead 4-3. Once again, the Yankees tied the score in the eighth, this time on a Nick Swisher homerun. Swisher would play the role of hero once again in the bottom of the ninth, when his two out single plated Curtis Granderson with the winning run in what turned out to be a most fitting tribute to the dearly departed Boss.

For a full Captain’s Blog recap, click here.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Captain’s Blog Beats the Experts: 2010 Prediction Review

October 4, 2010 by William Juliano

At the beginning of the season, I took a stab at predicting the final major league standings as well as the winners of the major awards. So, without further ado, just how well did those “educated” guesses turn out?

Listed below are my predicted standings taken from the link above. Also added to the chart is a differential column displaying how far the forecast was from the actual result.

AL East     Diff   NL East     Diff
Yankees 97 65 -2   Braves 91 71 –
Rays 92 70 4   Phillies 89 73 8
Red Sox 90 72 -1   Marlins 81 81 -1
Orioles 76 86 -10   Mets 75 87 4
Blue Jays 72 90 13   Nationals 67 95 2
                 
AL Central         NL Central      
Twins 88 74 6   Cardinals 90 72 -4
White Sox 85 77 3   Reds 84 78 7
Tigers 81 81 –   Brewers 82 80 -5
Indians 77 85 -8   Cubs 80 82 -5
Royals 66 96 1   Pirates 70 92 -13
          Astros 66 96 10
                 
AL West         NL West      
Rangers 87 75 3   Rockies 87 75 -4
Angels 84 78 -4   Dbacks 83 79 -18
Mariners 80 82 -19   Dodgers 82 80 -2
As 77 85 4   Giants 81 81 11
          Padres 70 92 20

In the American League, all four of the playoff teams were correctly predicted, although I had the Yankees winning the division instead of the wild card. Furthermore, eight of the 14 teams were pegged within four games of the actual total, while nine were correctly placed in the standings. There were big misses, however. The Mariners underperformed my prediction by a whopping 19 games, while the Orioles and Blue Jays each deviated from the forecast by double digits, albeit in different directions. Who knows, if Buck had been hired a couple of weeks early, I might not have been so far off the mark.

In the National League, I wasn’t as prescient, this time only predicting two playoff teams, although not in the correct order. The Phillies late surge upset what otherwise might have been a dead-on forecast for the NL East, but nothing could have saved my blurry view of the NL West. In that division, the forecast was off by double digits for three teams, including a 20 game under estimation for the champion San Francisco Giants. In the Central, I had the Reds properly highlighted as a team poised for improvement, but Dusty Baker got his team to do even better than I had predicted. At the bottom of the division, the Pirates grossly underperformed an already low expectation, while the Astros proved to be much better than the league worst team I had forecast.

So, how well did I really do? It wasn’t the original point of this exercise, but as things turned out, pretty darn good. In fact, I came out ahead of an entire selection of experts (for the original data, click here, and for the calculations, click here), based on average absolute value for each predicted total. Below is a ranking based on that criteria, as well as a look at how many individual predictions were either “dead on”, “near misses” or “off the mark”.

Captain’s Blog vs. the Experts

Website Name Avg. Difference Dead On Near Misses Off the Mark
Captain’s Blog williamnyy 6.4 2 18 8
ESPN Law 6.6 2 17 6
Yahoo! Henson 6.6 4 13 7
NJIT Bukiet 6.6 1 17 7
Yahoo! Brown 6.7 2 15 6
O/Us Pinnacle 6.7 0 16 7
Expert Average 6.9 2 12 5
Rotowire Sheehan 6.9 2 14 10
via RLYW CAIRO 7.2 1 13 7
ESPN Neyer 7.4 1 18 9
via RLYW Marcel 7.6 3 11 7
BPro PECOTA 7.6 1 14 11
S. Smith CHONE 7.6 1 12 9
via RLYW Oliver 7.8 0 11 9
Yahoo! Passan 8.0 0 14 10
ESPN ZiPS 8.8 1 10 9

Dead On refers to exact predictions, or where a simulator was done, those with an absolute value rounding to 0.
Near Misses refer to prediction within five games of the actual total.
Off the mark refers to prediction 10 games or more from the actual total.

Ok, fine, I didn’t say my predictions were head and shoulders above the experts. In particular, ESPN’s Keith Law’s predictions came with a small percentage of my average, while also tying Yahoo!’s Tim Brown for the fewest forecasts that were off the mark. Fellow ESPN analyst Rob Neyer did not perform as well on average, but his 18 near misses tied my total for most among the experts.

Most of the forecasts bringing up the rear were generated by projections systems like CAIRO, PECOTA, CHONE and ZIPS. The most unimpressive predictions from a human came from Yahoo!’s Jeff Pasan, who missed by an average of eight games per forecast and had 10 guesses miss by a wide mark.

Despite missing two playoff teams in the NL, both of my LCS matchups are still in play, so there is still hope for the Yankees vs. Braves rematch that I predicted. My CY Young predictions of Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez also look very good, but those weren’t exactly long shots to begin with. My MVP choices of Alex Rodriguez and Chase Utley were also chalk selections, but injuries derailed both players. Finally, my NL ROY selection of Jayson Heyward seems like a good bet, but my wildly optimistic expectations for Scott Sizemore now seem somewhat silly.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Predictions | 5 Comments »

« Newer Posts - Older Posts »