The Captain's Blog

The Tampa Bay Rays entered last night’s action needing just one win to clinch a playoff spot for only the second time in franchise history. Rays’ fans seemed unimpressed by the potential accomplishment, however, as only 12,446 fans showed up for the game against the Orioles.

The sparse crowds to which the Rays have been playing have not gone unnoticed by the players. After last night’s lightly attended game, a boiling point seemed to be reached as All Star third baseman Evan Longoria openly questioned the empty seats.

We’ve been playing great baseball all year. Since I’ve been here in [2006], the fans have wanted a good baseball team. They’ve wanted to watch a contender. And for us to play good baseball for three years now, and for us to be in a spot to clinch again and go to the playoffs, we’re all confused as to why it’s only 15,000 to 20,000 in the building.” – Evan Longoria, quoted by ESPN.com news services

Longoria wasn’t alone in expressing his disappointment. Following the Monday night loss to the Orioles, David Price took to Twitter to voice his dismay. “Had chance to clinch postseason spot tonight w/about 10k fans in the stands,” Price commented not long after the game. Although the ace lefty followed soon thereafter with an apology, the cat had already been let out of the bag. As is often the case in this age of social media, Price’s message made its way around the internet with lightening speed, eliciting strong reactions from both sides of the issue.

Those critical of Longoria and Price have pointed to the Tampa regions relatively high unemployment as well as the inconvenient location of the Tropicana Dome as reasons for the depressed attendance, but in a region of nearly 3 million people, those excuses don’t really compute.   At an average price of $18, Rays’ tickets are among the cheapest in baseball, so the team is not prohibitively pricing itself out of the market.

Meanwhile, those who support the players’ comments have pointed to the fans’ apathy as evidence that the Tampa market isn’t willing to support baseball.  However, the Rays’ high television ratings seem to suggest a strong level of interest in the team. So, why is there a disconnect?

At TYU, Moshe Mandel presents several reasons why attendance at the ballpark has been depressed. Regardless of why fans have been staying away from the Tropicana Dome, the team and the community need to collaborate on a solution.

Not helping matters, however, has been the recent public posturing by Rays’ owner Stuart Sternberg. Last Wednesday, Sternberg told reporters that there was nothing that could prevent the Rays from having to significantly trim down payroll during the offseason. Regardless of the veracity of such a statement, the timing was curious to say the least. On the one hand, the Rays expect their fan base to make a long-term investment in the team, but on the other hand the owner is openly declaring his unwillingness to do the same. Can you blame the community for not exactly buying into the team?

Nothing can change that. Unfortunately there’s nothing that can happen between now and April that can change that unless (manager) Joe Maddon hits the lottery and wants to donate it or I hit the lottery.” – Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, USA Today, September 22, 2010

Not surprisingly, many in the media have been sympathetic to Sternberg’s plight. After all, if the fans in Tampa wont come to games, why should the team spend any money? As is often the case, such sentiment is blinded by an economic smokescreen often put forth by sport team owners.

According to Forbes, the Rays have had $146 million in operating profit since 2004, during which time the franchise value has increased by 80% to $316 million. Sternberg first bought into the Rays when he led an investment group that purchased 48% of the team for $65 million. Sternberg eventually bought out former owner Vince Namoli in 2005 and has since seen his investment increase significantly. Obviously, no one should be shedding a tear for Sternberg, nor should they be so easy to accept his cries of poverty.

In many ways, the Rays are confronted with a chicken and egg situation. The Sternberg group seems to be demanding an overwhelming response before making a more significant long-term investment in the team, while the fan base has been tepid to the team’s success because of its tenuous status in the community.

Although the Rays’ players initial response has been to question the fans, their doubts would be more appropriately directed toward ownership. Sternberg knew the market in which he was entering, so its reticence to support the team should not come as a surprise. Instead of threatening a cut back, the Rays’ ownership should be promising increased investment. In order to sustainably grow revenue, risk is required. Simply spending to break even won’t result in the level of growth needed to support the team in the long run, and such a strategy is hard to justify when you consider the team’s favorable economics. It would be nice if Rays’ fan would come out to the ballpark in droves, but until ownership has done everything possible to make that happen, the raised eyebrows around baseball should not be cast upon the fans.

Joe Girardi may have plenty of time to ponder the wisdom of his late season strategy if the Yankees don’t start playing better (Photo: AP).

Coming down the stretch, the Yankees have proven to be much more adept at clichés than clinching. After last night’s latest AJ Burnett debacle, we were treated to the classic “one step forward and two steps back” explanation that has defined the enigmatic righty’s season. As a result, the Yankees are still “taking it one day at time” until they secure their playoff spot, something they haven’t yet done because “sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war”. Now, instead of setting up his playoff rotation, Joe Girardi has been forced to send C.C. Sabathia to the mound in a classic case of “why put off for tomorrow what you can do today”. Of course, if the Yankees don’t starting playing better, there may be “no tomorrow”, or at least not many in October. 

Thanks to Sunday’s dramatic victory against the Red Sox, a complete collapse now seems unfathomable. Nonetheless, the Yankees blasé approach to the final three weeks has not only forced them into a semi-panic mode during the final week, but surrounded the team with an air of negativity. Losing has a way of doing that, even if the defeats are explained away as a means to a greater victory. The latest debacle revolves around another putrid performance from AJ Burnett. Exactly half of Burnett’s 32 starts have recorded a game score under 50 (including a shocking 11 starts below 35), so the Yankees should no longer be surprised by his struggles. What is somewhat surprising, however, is that Burnett still seems to have a lock on a spot in the playoff rotation. 

AJ Burnett’s 2010 Game Scores 

After Burnett’s implosion, the Yankees bullpen rebounded from some minor recent struggles to shut down the powerful Jays lineup over the remainder of the game, allowing the team to chip away at the lead with a two run blast by Curtis Granderson and a three-run bomb by Mark Teixeira.  The Yankees eventually brought the tying run to the plate in the seventh, but never threatened again after Marcus Thames’ hard line drive landed in the glove of Travis Snider. Curiously, three of the final four batters in the game made outs on at least a 2-0 count, despite being down two runs and needing a base runner to once again bring the tying run to the plate. 

Although the struggles of the pitching staff have attracted the most attention, the Yankees’ offense has been an equal culprit. Not only has the lineup produced a season low 4.6 runs per game, but its steadily climbing strikeout rate has approached a whopping eight punch outs per contest. In yesterday’s game, that growing problem was on display as Blue Jay pitchers set down 14 Yankee batters on strikes, including nine by starter Marc Rzcepczynski. 

Yankees Monthly Offensive Output, 2010

Source: Baseball-reference.com 

In tonight’s game, the Yankees will look to their one reliable starter to finally lock down a playoff spot. However, by starting Sabathia, the Yankees’ ace lefty will now be facing the prospect of having eight days off heading into the ALDS. Before being forced to push the panic button, Sabathia had been slated to pitch on Friday in Boston, which would have set him up to open the ALDS on regular rest. Similarly, by having to press Hughes into emergency action, the Yankees could be dealing with another starter making a post season start with an inordinate amount of rest. The overall performance of the Yankees rotation is concern enough, so introducing another element of doubt only further exacerbates the problem. 

In just over three weeks, the culture of the Yankees has been completely transformed. Instead of espousing a win at all costs philosophy, the organization-wide mantra has seemed to be about doing just enough. Girardi can talk about “trying like crazy to win the division” all he wants, but his actions speak louder than words. GM Brian Cashman is also guilty of advancing a tempered approach to finishing in first. So, it should not be surprising that the same attitude has filtered among the players. After losing the finale to the Rays, the normally intense Mark Teixeira talked about how “Itwould have been nice” to win the series, and following yesterday’s game, Burnett stated, “Everyone always says that the season doesn’t matter here and the postseason does.” 

If everyone in the Yankee organization is saying that, or implying as much with their actions, then systemic changes need to be considered after the season, regardless of the ultimate outcome. In 1996, the new Yankees dynasty was symbolized by a t-shirt the entire team used to wear. It read simply, “We play today; we win today…das it”. In 2010, that singular approach has been replaced with qualifications. It remains to be seen whether the team can simply flick the switch come October, but it does seem a shame that the lights were turned off in the first place.

The Yankees hit six homeruns last night in their valiant attempt to overcome a 10-1 deficit. The prolific display of power was only the third time in franchise history that the team belted six or more homeruns in a losing effort.

Most HRs in a Loss by the Yankees

Source: Baseball-reference.com

The conventional wisdom has been that the Yankees are at a distinct disadvantage coming down the stretch because the Rays schedule is significantly easier. And, on the surface, that seems to be the case. Factoring in home/road records, the Yankees opponents over the final 10 days are a combined 375-306 (.551), while the Rays will be facing teams that have gone 286-460 (.383). However, since September 1, the combined record of the teams left on the Yankees schedule is a less imposing 84-96 (.467), while the Rays remaining opponents are a more competitive 82-118 (.410).

In baseball, the schedule is not really about whom you play, but when you play them. For example, playing the Mariners when King Felix is on the mound is not the same as when his start comes the day before a series begins (as is the case with the Rays’ weekend series against Seattle). So, instead of breaking down the remaining schedule by team, it’s probably more useful to take a look at the pitchers each team is likely to face.

Yankees Remaining Matchups

Rays Remaining Matchups

Although starting pitchers are subject to change, and certain assumptions were made (i.e., Clay Buccholz’ turn comes up on the last day of the season, but the Red Sox have reportedly been talking about shutting him down beforehand) in composing the charts above, it appears as if the Yankees and Rays will be facing the same level of starting pitching. Obviously, the teams on the Rays schedule have weaker offenses, but only the Mariners have had particular trouble scoring runs of late (2.6 runs/game in September). The other four teams on the two teams’ schedules have pretty much scored at comparable rates over the final month of the season.

September Runs

The Rays definitely have an easier schedule, not to mention the tie breaker in their back pocket, but by no means has the battle for the AL East been decided, assuming of course that the Yankees are still committed to winning it.

Sequels are seldom as good as the original, and last night’s rematch between David Price and C.C. Sabathia was no different.

C.C. Sabathia wipes his brow as the Rays sixth inning rally wipes away the Yankees 3-1 lead (Photo: Getty Images).

The Yankees took advantage of Price’s early struggles to build a 3-1 lead, thanks in large part to a two run homer from Marcus Thames, who continues to make a considerable impact despite limited playing time. The Yankees tacked on another run in the fifth inning, but also stranded the bases loaded with one out in the frame. In total, the Yankees stranded nine runners over Price’s six innings of work, which allowed the Rays to stay in the game.

Normally, three runs would have been enough for Sabathia. Entering yesterday’s action, the last time the Yankees scored at least three runs with Sabathia on the mound and lost was on May 29. Also, before his loss to the Orioles on September 7, Sabathia had pitched in 21 straight games at Yankee Stadium without a defeat.  After the Rays comeback victory, however, he has now lost two home games in a row.

The most jarring thing about last night’s game was not the loss itself, but the sudden way in which it transpired. Like Price, Sabathia was not on top of his game in the early going, but after a quick fourth and fifth, the big lefty seemed to settle down. That all changed in the top of the sixth. A single by Crawford and double by Longoria set the Rays up to tie the game, but in trying to pitch around the jam, it appeared as if Sabathia dug the hole even deeper. Once the Rays put the tying runners in scoring position, the big lefty abandoned his fastball in favor of the slider in an apparent attempt to go for the strikeout. What resulted instead were walks to the light hitting Kelly Shopach and Sean Rodriguez, which eventually forced Sabathia from the game.

Had Joba Chamberlain been able to limit the damage, the Yankees may have still had a chance to win the game, but a BJ Upton ground rule double and two run single by Crawford sealed the deal. The Yankees did mount one last threat when they again loaded the bases in the sixth, but as he did for most of the game, Price made the pitches he needed to turn the rally away. The last three innings were then played like a Spring Training game, as the Yankees unloaded their bench. Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez, who mopped up the remaining innings, unloaded on the Rays’ hitters, plunking three straight batters to tie a record last accomplished by Jeff Weaver.

When Sabathia took the mound with a 3-1 lead in the sixth, the Yankees seemed to be on the verge of sending the Rays out of town with a 2 ½ game deficit. Instead, the Yankees are now the team facing an uphill battle. By losing the game, the Yankees not only squandered their advantage, but also ceded the season series to the Rays. So, not only do the Rays have a decided advantage in terms of remaining strength of schedule, but they now own the division tie breaker as well. With only nine more games left in the season, the Yankees are running out of battles. Although the war has not be lost, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Yankees will have to win it on enemy territory.

Pitchers Who Have Hit Three Consecutive Batters

Source: Baseball-reference.com and baseball-almanac.com

Francisco Cervelli and Jorge Posada have shared more than a few laughs. This season, the two have split the catching duties right down the middle (Photo: The Star-Ledger).

The Yankees catching situation in 2010 has created a partnership that is unique in franchise history. After Posada and Cervelli each catch one more game, they will become the Yankees only catching tandem to compile over 300 plate appearances each (not including at bats taken at other positions). The only pair that even came close to so evenly splitting duties behind the plate was Yogi Berra and Elston Howard, who in 1958 batted 369 and 278 times, respectively, while donning the tools of ignorance. 

A lot of angst has been expressed over Cervelli’s role on the team, but much of it has been dismissed as typical Yankee fan paranoia over a position (backup catcher) that most teams do not give a second thought. On the surface, there is at least some truth to that observation, but when you consider the extent to which Cervelli has played, his OPS+ of 79 become less palatable. 

Yankees’ Catchers 2010 Performance

Source: Baseball-reference.com 

Since the end of the dead ball era (generally believed to be around 1920), the Yankees have had only 79 players post an OPS+ below 80 in more than 300 plate appearances, including just five players since the start of the recent championship era in 1996. Perhaps not surprisingly, one of the five players happens to be Cervelli’s current manager. In 1997, Joe Girardi posted an OPS+ of 69 in 433 plate appearances, so you can easily see why he has an affinity for light hitting catchers. 

Yankees With More than 300 PA and an OPS+ Lower than 80, Since 1990

Source: Baseball-reference.com 

It should be noted that Cervelli’s OBP of .346 is not only pretty good, but well above the league average of .328. However, some of that value is mitigated by his paltry slugging percentage of .320, which ranks eighth worst in the American League among batters with at least as many as 300 plate appearances. As a result, Cervelli’s wOBA is only .304, compared to Posada’s rate of .373, which is good for fourth best in baseball using the same parameters. 

The main reason for Cervelli’s miniscule slugging percentage is his inability to hit homeruns. Although Cervelli does have one long ball on his major league resume (a rather significant one that is often credited with turning the Yankees season around last year in Atlanta), he has been completely shutout this season. If Cervelli does not belt one out of the park before the end of the season, he would become only the 13th Yankee since the end of the dead ball era to go homerless in over 300 plate appearances, and only the third since 1971. 

Yankees With No Homeruns and More than 300 PA

Source: Baseball-reference.com 

Because he hasn’t played strong defense, Cervelli’s weak bat has made him a constant scapegoat during the season, which in spite of the facts presented above, still seems a little unfair considering the enormous talent in the Yankees lineup. Still, a team like the Yankees is not judged by the same standards as others. In 2010, the extended playing time of Cervelli has resulted in the team being exposed from time to time. That might not be a major concern in the regular season, but in the post season, the Yankees could pay a price if they are forced to rely on what should be their backup catcher. In other words, there can be no catching partnership in October. Because of Jose Molina’s defense, such a situation worked out fine last year, but if the Yankees are going to repeat, they will not only need Posada’s bat in the lineup, but behind the plate as well.