The Captain's Blog

Despite playing a stretch of games in oppressive heat, a cool breeze has been following the Yankees around in August. During the month, the number of swings and misses by the team has reached historic levels, which is probably at least partially responsible for the bats going cold just when everything else seems to be heating up.

Lost amid the drama of the team’s stirring 7-6 triumph over the Rangers last night were the 17 strikeouts recorded by Cliff Lee and a handful of Texas’ relievers. That total matched the Yankees record for most punch outs since 1920, a ignominious feat matched only two other times in team history.

Most Strikeouts in a Game By Yankee Batters, Since 1920

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Anyone watching the team closely over the last two weeks probably shouldn’t be surprised by last night’s strikeout total. In seven of the last 11 games, the Yankees have been set down on strikes at least 10 times. Before that stretch, opposing pitchers had only recorded double digit strikeout totals in 10 of the previous 102 games. Lowering the bar a little, the Yankees have struck out at least nine times in five straight games, another first in team history. Although matched by a similar stretch in 1968 and 2001, the current swing and miss epidemic has been responsible for the team’s highest five game strikeout total. For the entire month of August, the Yankees strikeout total of 94 leads the majors, ahead of such free swinging teams as the Diamondbacks (90), Rays (89) and Cubs (87).

Longest Streak of Nine Strikeouts or More By Yankee Batters, Since 1920

Source: Baseball-reference.com

So, what’s the reason for the Yankees recent surge in strike outs? The easiest answer is to look at the opposing pitchers. With names like Garza, Shields, Morrow, Beckett, Lester and Lee, it’s easy to see why the Yankee batters have been heading back to the dugout with their heads down more frequently than normal. Judging by the monthly progression of the team’s strikeout-to-PA ratio, the recent run of superior opposition pitchers seems to be the most likely culprit. Considering that the team still ranks all the way down at 19th in all of baseball, there is probably no reason to sound the alarm about this recent strikeout epidemic.

Yankees Monthly Run and Strikeout Totals

Source: Baseball-reference.com

At the individual player level, the Yankees have three players (Swisher, Teixeira and Gardner) in the top-10 for most strikeouts in August, and nearly every starting regular has seen a rise in their strikeout rates during the month. The most dramatic increase has come courtesy of Mark Teixeira, whose strikeouts have more than doubled in August even while he has posted an OPS of 1.021. Brett Gardner, however, has not been so lucky. His strikeout rate has increased all the way to a whopping 40%, while his OPS in the month has plummeted to .300.

Source: Fangraphs.com

As the Yankees embark on a stretch against some weaker pitchers, their collective strikeout rate should normalize somewhat. If it doesn’t, however, the team may have a real problem on its hands. In the meantime, the Yankees may as well enjoy the breeze because it isn’t going to be any cooler in Kansas City.

When the Rangers carried a 6-1 lead into the sixth inning, the storyline was practically written. After failing in their attempt to obtain him via a trade, the Yankees offense was shut down by Cliff Lee in a preview of the fate that awaited them come October. Unfortunately for the beat writers and bloggers covering the game, however, the Yankees didn’t stick to the script.

In a rare sight, Cliff Lee is pulled from a ball game in the middle of an inning. The Yankees knocked Lee from the game with one out in the seventh (Photo: AP).

After Derek Jeter singled on the first pitch of the game, Lee bounced back to retire the next nine batters in a row. The early display of dominance was made even more ominous when Michael Young clanked the shortest homerun in Rangers Ballpark history off the right field foul pole to stake Lee to an early 1-0 lead. An RBI double by Alex Rodriguez in the fourth inning served as a temporary reprieve, but Javier Vazquez could not hold up his end of the pitchers’ duel in the middle innings. The Rangers rallied for two runs in the fourth and three in the fifth before Vazquez made the slow walk from the mound toward certain defeat.

Derek Jeter’s lead-off triple in the sixth seemed more cosmetic than prophetic at the time, but when the Captain scored on a wild pitch the comeback had begun. The Yankees continued to chip away at Lee in the seventh when Lance Berkman’s ground rule double knocked home a run ahead of an RBI single by Gardner that knocked Lee from the game. Despite handling the Yankee lineup with relative ease entering the inning, including 11 strikeouts along the way, Lee was forced to work hard in the 99 degree Texas heat, and that effort seemed to finally catch up with him.

Things didn’t get easier with Lee out of the game as Rangers’ manager Ron Washington played the matchups and called upon Darren O’Day and Darren Oliver to strike out Jeter and Swisher, respectively, and keep the Yankees deficit at 6-4.

The Rangers bullpen has been a strength all season, but in this series, Frank Francisco proved to be the weak link. One night after Arod reached the hard throwing righty for a home run, Marcus Thames greeted Francisco with a titanic blast deep into the left seats. The Yankees’ power display seemed to scare Francisco out of the strike zone has he walked two of the next three hitters, but the rally was thwarted when Austin Kearns grounded a 3-1 pitch into a double play.

For the second night in a row, it seemed as if the Yankees’ failure to take advantage of Francisco’s ineffectiveness would result in a loss at the hands of Neftali Feliz, but this time the Yankees broke through against the Rangers’ rookie closer. The inning started with a leadoff walk by Lance Berkman, for whom Curtis Granderson pinch ran, that was followed by a Gardner single on a flare to left. With runners on first and second, Jeter appeared to be bunting, but a wild pitch advanced the runners for him. After striking out in the same situation two innings earlier, Jeter seemed determined to put the bat on the ball and accomplished his goal by bouncing a weak groundball over Feliz’ head and through the drawn-in infield. Washington then removed his young closer, who had thrown 21 pitches the night before, from the game in favor of Alexi Ogando, who entered the game with an ERA just above 1.00. Ogando made quick work of Swisher, but Thames singled through the shortstop hole to plate the go ahead run.

Each August, Mariano Rivera seems to have a short stretch of games when a combination of bad location and bad luck conspire against him. So, when Elvis Andrus led off the ninth inning with a triple, it seemed like now was that time. On the next pitch, Young lined a ball that seemed ticketed to right field, but Kearns made a running shoe string grab that held the runner at third and seemed to give Mariano new life. After falling behind 2-0 to Josh Hamilton, Rivera sawed off the bat of the AL batting leader and induced a weak comebacker. Then, Rivera completed the escape by getting Vladimir Guerrero to ground out to third. Six pitches after facing certain disaster, the Yankees were on the mound celebrating one of their best and most improbable victories of the season.

The Rangers came into this brief two game series wanting to make a statement, and despite letting last night’s game slip away, the message was delivered loud and clear. Texas has established itself as a legitimate World Series contender and, unlike the late-1990s, will not be a push over come October. The Yankees also made a statement, however. Even in games when they don’t play particularly well, the defending world champs never give up. It remains to be seen whether these two teams will meet in the post season, but if this series was an indication, the final storyline has yet to be written.

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• Derek Jeter needs one hit to join Mel Ott in 38^th place on the all-time list. When Jeter passes Ott, he will become the all-time hits leader for any New York team.
• Mark Teixeira is not in the lineup because he attended the birth of his son William Charles Teixeira.
• Robinson Cano is out of the lineup because he is suffering from the effects of a cold.
• Marcus Thames has batted .220/.283/.513 with12 HRs and 32 RBIs in 166 plate appearances batting in the third slot.

Some of AJ Burnett's outings this season have been tough to swallow.

Charles Dickens would have been a big fan of A.J. Burnett because when the enigmatic righty takes the mound you can bet it’s going to be an evening of contradictions.

Over at the ESPN Stats blog, Albert Larcada and Katie Sharp and presented some striking numbers that illustrate Burnett’s tale of two seasons. In his wins, Burnett is sporting a league leading ERA of 0.74, but in his losses, his ERA is a league worst 12.17 (among pitchers with at least five decisions). Quite literally, there has been no “in between” for Burnett.

Sometimes ERA can be misleading, especially when dissecting samples into wins and losses. However, breaking Burnett’s starts down by game score reveals a similar trend.  Burnett ranks second in the America League in starts with a game score of 40 or lower, but at the same cracks the top-15 with eight outings that had a game score of 60 or greater. No wonder the running joke among Yankees fans when Burnett starts is to ask whether the “Good AJ” or “Bad AJ” will show up.

Starts with a Game Score of 40 or Lower, American League Year-to-Date

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Although Burnett has had an incredibly frustrating season, his reputation for being wildly inconsistent really isn’t deserved. Last season, Burnett had 14 starts with a game score of 60 or more, which ranked ninth in the AL, but only turned in five stinkers with a game score of 40 or below. In fact, Burnett had fewer implosions than C.C. Sabathia (6) and Andy Pettitte (10).

Starts with a Game Score of 40 or Lower, 2009 Yankees

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Starts with a Game Score of 60 or Higher, 2009 Yankees

Source: Baseball-reference.com

So, why has Burnett developed a reputation for being so unreliable? Again, the answer lies at the extremes. Even though Burnett had fewer bad starts than his rotation mates, his ERA in those games was a whopping 13.10, compared to Sabathia’s 9.38 and Pettitte’s 8.01. For whatever reason, when Burnett does not have his “good stuff”, it seems as if he stops competing. Although likely more perception than reality, the idea that Burnett in incapable of or unwilling to battle through a tough start likely also feeds into the negative image he has acquired.

ERA in Wins, American League 2009-2010

Note: Minimum 10 decisions
Source: Baseball-reference.com

ERA in Losses, American League 2009-2010

Note: Minimum 10 decisions
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Good AJ/Bad AJ paradox has really been a Yankee creation. In his one-plus seasons as a Yankee, Burnett has the fourth best ERA in winning decisions, but also the fifth worst ERA in losses. While a member of the Blue Jays, however, the divergence in his performance was much less.

AJ Burnett’s ERA in Wins and Losses

Note: Minimum 10 decisions for Yankees and minimum 15 decisions for Blue Jays
*From top for wins and from bottom for losses
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Without a doubt, AJ Burnett’s performance has always been judged against expectations. Despite having what many scouts have referred to as the “best stuff in the game”, Burnett has really never put it all together. Based on that disconnect alone, you can understand why Burnett is so often viewed as an enigma. This season, however, perception has actually become the reality. In fact, Burnett has often looked so conflicted that it almost seems as if the Good and Bad AJ are battling each other out on the mound. As Burnett gets set to the toe the rubber in Texas tonight, the Yankees have to hope the Good AJ wins out.

For the second time in just over a week, Joe Girardi’s bewildering managerial decisions gift wrapped a series finale to a division rival. As a result, Boston escaped from the Bronx with a vital split, and the Yankees forfeited an opportunity to further bury the Red Sox and increase the pressure on the struggling Rays.

Jacoby Ellsbury corals Marcus Thames double, which just missed clearing the fence for a game tying home run. Instead, the Yankees wound up squandering a base loaded, no out opportunity (Photo: AP).

For six innings, the game was dominated by the strong pitching of Jon Lester and Phil Hughes. The Red Sox nickel and dimed Hughes for two runs in a 37-pitch second inning, but after limiting the damage, the young Yankees righty rebounded to retire 14 of the final 15 batters he faced. Meanwhile, Lester kept the Yankees hitless until an Austin Kearns single in the fifth and carried a shutout into the seventh inning.

After Jorge Posada led off the seventh with a single, bad luck intervened when a Marcus Thames opposite field drive bounced off the very top of the wall. Had Girardi used a pinch runner for Posada, a run would have scored, but instead the plodding catcher only reached third base. Lester then loaded the bases by hitting Kearns with a pitch, but not before some more bad luck befell the Yankees. Two pitches before taking a ball off the foot, Kearns lofted a deep foul fly down the left field line that Ryan Kalish almost snagged by leaping into the stands. Had he made the catch, Posada would have scored and Thames may have advanced to third. Instead, the subsequent HBP loaded the bases and set the stage for Girardi’s ill conceived game management.

Curtis Granderson has not hit well against lefties over his entire career. This season, he is batting .212/.250/.283 against southpaws, many of which aren’t the caliber of Jon Lester. So, with the game on the line, the situation screamed for one of two strategies: using a pinch hitter for Granderson or employing a safety squeeze. The ideal candidate to pinch hit would have been Brett Gardner. Despite also being a lefty, Gardner sports an OBP of .375 against southpaws. What’s more, Gardner’s strikeout percentage of 22% against lefties is significantly lower than Granderson’s 27.1%. In other words, every indicator pointed toward making this switch.

Another sound strategy would have been to have Granderson remain in the game and attempt a safety squeeze. Even with the slow footed Posada at 3B, a well executed bunt would have carried with it an element of surprise, especially with the inexperienced Mike Lowell manning first base. Besides, even if the Red Sox were able to force Posada at the plate, the strategy would still have removed the slowest runner from the bases. Compared to letting Granderson swing away against a dominant lefty like Lester, the possibility of a beneficial outcome resulting from a safety squeeze seemed to be much greater.

As we all know, Girardi opted for the worst alternative and paid the price when Granderson struck out on four pitches. In the post game, Girardi defended the decision because he thought Granderson had good at bats off Lester earlier in the game. Those “good at bats” were harmless fly balls, however. Considering that the situation called for keeping the ball out of the air, Girardi had to know that Lester would pitch Granderson much differently? Then again, maybe not. After all, Girardi’s response to being questioned on his decision was to ask “where I am supposed to go there”?

After Granderson struck out, Terry Francona called on Danial Bard, who then promptly blew away Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher. By failing to strike at that key moment in the ball game, Girardi hand delivered to Francona the matchups that he needed to extricate his team from the inning and potentially save their season.

Following their missed opportunity in the seventh, the Yankees finally broke through when Mark Teixeira belted a titanic homerun against Bard, after which Arod lined a single up the middle. Girardi once again raised eyebrows by removing his cleanup hitter from the game in favor of Gardner. Now, if he had Gardner going on first move, the strategy may have made some sense. Of course, everyone is well aware of Gardner’s reticence to run in such situations, so it came as no surprise that he remained anchored at first and only advanced when Robinson Cano grounded out weakly to the second baseman. The ill-fated decision had further repercussions later on in the inning when the absence of Gardner’s bat on the bench forced Girardi to let Kearns face Papelbon. One pitch later, the rally was thwarted.

The Yankees came within inches of sending the Red Sox to Toronto nine games behind in the loss column, but the real reason the Yankees lost the series finale was because their manager completely botched two late game situations. Girardi obviously has his strengths as a manager, and his players seem to like his clubhouse style, but his increasingly bewildering game management decisions continue to cost his team in important situations. Hopefully, they don’t wind up costing them the A.L. East division title.