The Captain's Blog

After acquiring Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays last December, the Phillies had the chance to feature the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Instead, General Manager Ruben Amaro opted to trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners, citing both a concern over Lee’s impending free agency as well as the organization’s need to replenish its farm system. That line of reasoning was severely flawed at the time, but has since been proven to be even more short sighted.

If we had just acquired Roy and not moved Lee, we would have been in position to have lost seven of the best 10 prospects in our organization. That is not the way you do business in baseball.” – Phillies GM Rueben Amaro, quoted on ESPN.com

The Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt for the stretch run, but would be better off with Cliff Lee.

To get Cliff Lee from Cleveland, the Phillies parted with a quartet of prospects, including Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson and Jason Donald. When they subsequently traded him to the Mariners, however, they received a lighter package of Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gilles and Juan Ramirez. Still, assuming Amaro was really under a mandate to acquire prospects and trim payroll, you could justify the downgrade in talent as a necessary evil of getting Halladay as well as the cost of reaching the 2009 World Series. Unfortunately for Amaro, when Lee was traded yet again, it further exposed the foolishness of his earlier decision.

When Texas acquired Lee from the Mariners just before the All Star break, they parted with highly touted 1B Justin Smoak. What’s more, they also had their pick of another top prospect, the Yankees’ Jesus Montero. In other words, in the three deals involving Cliff Lee in one calendar year, the Phillies brought back the smallest return.

As you can see, it’s one thing to replenish the farm with quantity, but quality is what really matters. Besides, a veteran team like the Phillies should be concerned about winning now, not trying to cultivate middle-level prospects. After getting off to a slow start this season, Amaro finally came to that conclusion and pulled the trigger on a deal for Roy Oswalt. This time, the cost was J.A. Happ and prospects Anthony Gose (later traded by the Astros to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace) and Jonathan Villar.

So, after an eventful seven months, the Phillies are back to where they started: a formidable 1-2 punch atop their rotation (really1-2-3 with Cole Hamels resurgence). To get there, however, they had to endure a bumpy road. What’s more, they are now on the hook for an additional $14 million in guaranteed money owed to Oswalt, and likely will not be in a position to offer him arbitration when he departs after 2011, meaning they will not recoup two draft picks, as they would have done with Lee.

The bottom line for the Phillies is they simply should have held onto Lee. Had they made that decision, they’d have wound up with a better pitcher (and a lefty at that), less of a financial commitment, potentially better prospects in their farm system, two draft picks in the 2011 draft and perhaps a lead, instead of a deficit, in the NL East. By anyone’s math, Amaro’s decision backfired, so now he has to hope Oswalt can help balance the equation.

Balancing the Ledger: The Net Cost/Benefit of the Phillies’ Lee and Oswalt Trades

From the Phillies:

• Cliff Lee (Could have traded for Justin Smoak [9], Jesus Montero [10])
• J.A. Happ
• Anthony Gose (Could have traded for Brett Wallace [20])
• Jonathan Villar
• Loss of 2011 draft picks
• Lee’s guaranteed $9 million salary removed from payroll

To the Phillies:

• Roy Oswalt
• Phillippe Aumont
• Tyson Gilles
• Juan Ramirez
• Oswalt’s guaranteed $14 million salary added to 2010-11 payroll

Note: Number in brackets is Keith Law’s Top-100 Preseason Prospect Ranking

Going into last night’s game, the Yankees starting lineup had an OPS of 1.011 against Fausto Carmona, so there was no cause for concern about a lack of familiarity. As a result, one day after sleeping walking against rookie Josh Tomlin, the Yankees’ lumber awoke from its slumber, scoring seven runs on 10 hits in two-plus innings against the Indians’ veteran.

Arod hangs on to 2B after a sixth inning double (Photo: AP).

Starting with Alex Rodriquez’ RBI single in the first and ending with Robinson Cano’s 19th homerun in the fourth, the Yankees quickly built an 8-0 lead in the game and dispelled all doubt about the eventual outcome. The Yankees’ large lead allowed the attention of the game to shift back toward Arod’s pursuit of 600 homeruns, but once again, history was denied. Despite failing to go deep, Arod still managed to have a productive evening, which in addition to his run scoring single also included a humorous line drive double in the sixth that required the Yankees’ third baseman to make a slide that left him holding second base like a teddy bear.

Even though Arod’s pursuit of a milestone was once again denied, the only disappointment on the evening was the continued struggles of Derek Jeter. While everyone else joined in on the hit parade, the captain was held hitless in five at bats, although one out was the result of a fine running catch by Shin-Soo Choo, who seems do something impressive in every game.

Over the last few starts, a dark cloud has seemed to be following AJ Burnett around…both figuratively and literally. In two starts since cutting his hand on a clubhouse wall, Burnett has encountered lengthy rain delays. Unlike the storm in his last start, which truncated his outing to five innings, this time around Burnett had to deal with a pre-game disruption and a revised start time that was off the mark. According to the broadcast, Burnett wound up warming up too early, leading to speculation about how he would cope. The concern was unwarranted, however, as Burnett battled through six-plus scoreless innings before calling it a night.

The most encouraging thing about Burnett’s outing was he did not have great stuff or command (although his curve ball was sharp), but still persevered. The Indians had at least one base runner in every inning and forced Burnett to throw a lot of pitches, but instead of giving into frustration, the Yankees mercurial righty navigated through each jam without suffering damage. In a season in which Burnett has either been lights out or blown out, the gritty performance was a welcomed middle ground.

After Burnett’s exit with one out in the seventh, Joe Girardi then used the remainder of the game to help rehabilitate two wayward pitchers. Girardi first called on Joba Chamberlain to get the final two outs of the seventh before going to Sergio Mitre for the last six outs. This time last week, Chamberlain and Mitre were the “eighth inning guy” and “fifth starter”, respectively, so being called upon for mop-up duty further highlights their declining roles on the team.

• A.J. Burnett’s victory was his first in five career starts at Progressive Field.
• After a horrendous June, A.J. Burnett is now 3-1 with an ERA of 2.00 in July.
• In the six games since hitting homerun 599, Arod is batting .280/.333/.360 with 4 RBIs.