The Captain's Blog

The Yankees celebrated George Steinbrenner’s birthday as well as the nominal end to the season’s first half by eking out their 50th victory with an extra inning triumph over the Blue Jays. The walk off celebration put the team squarely on pace for another 100-win season, but there is some concern about whether the Yankees can maintain that pace in the second half. Before looking ahead, however, it is time to look back over the first half and determine not only the most valuable contributors, but also the most disappointing laggards.

Position Players

The Good

The clear cut MVP among all position players was Robinson Cano. In fact, a strong case could be made for Cano being MVP of the entire American League. His OPS+ of 163 and wOBA of .411 both easily led the team. More importantly, Cano exhibited an impressive level of consistency across most key splits. As many managers have learned the hard way, Cano is not neutralized by left handers. In fact, he almost hits them better. Through the first 81 games of the season, Cano has a .977 OPS against right handers complemented by a .946 OPS against lefties, including a league leading 10 home runs. Unlike in years past, Cano has also performed equally well at home and on the road, and avoided a prolonged slump. Of most importance, however, Cano’s OPS of .955 with runners in scoring position and .997 OPS in late and close situations have completely dispelled the notion that he can’t hit in the clutch. Meanwhile, on defense, Cano posted an UZR/150 of 9.6, good for fourth among all second basemen in the major leagues.

Is Robinson Cano the 2010 AL MVP?

Aside from Cano, the Yankees most productive player, and perhaps most pleasant surprise, over the first half has been Brett Gardner. Once a slap and run type player, Gardner has evolved into a much more complete hitter as evidenced by his OPS+ of 130 and wOBA of .385, good for second on the Yankees and eighth among all outfielders in the major leagues. By stealing 24 of 29 bases, Gardner has also continued to use his speed as a weapon, something that has also come in handy in the field.  Had he enough innings to qualify, Gardner’s UZR/150 of 8.3 would rank fifth among all left fielders. Once a part time player, Gardner has emerged as an integral part of the lineup.

Fellow outfielder Nick Swisher checks in right behind Gardner as the third most valuable position player in the first half. His OPS+ of 139 and wOBA of .383 are right in line with Gardner, but the latter’s base running and defense give him the edge. That’s not to say Swisher has been a defensive liability. Most metrics have him as anywhere from average to a shade above, so his glove has not detracted from the value provided by his bat. Along with Gardner, Swisher has helped turn what was thought to be one of the team’s weaknesses, into a strength, even with the disappointing start by Curtis Granderson.

Top-10 AL Outfielders, By wOBA

The Bad

While Gardner and Swisher have buoyed the outfield, Curtis Granderson has been an anchor. Ironically, Granderson’s defense, which seemed to be an emerging concern for the Tigers, has been stellar.  His UZR/150 of 17.0 currently ranks first in the American League and second in the majors to only Tony Gwynn Jr.’s amazing rate of 49.8. Unfortunately, Granderson’s relative lack of power and speed has made the center fielder a major disappointment with the bat (although he has managed his fair share of late inning heroics). His subpar batting line of .226/.302/.402 has been the product of struggles from both sides of the plate. Against lefties, Granderson has hit an anemic .192/.232/.282, a troubling trend that seems to suggest he is no more than a platoon player. Of course, Granderson hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball against righties. With an OPS of .822 against right handed pitchers, Granderson hasn’t been awful, but still well below his career mark of .890. By not producing more against righties, Granderson’s weaknesses against lefties have been further exposed. Considering the team’s long-term commitment to Granderson, a resurgent second half is of tantamount importance.

Although not “bad”, Mark Teixeira has also been a disappointment relative to his standard performances. Teixeira’s extended early season struggles created a hole in the middle of the Yankees lineup that was further exacerbated by the nagging injuries that have hampered Alex Rodriguez’ performance. Although he has started to round into form of late, Teixeira’s failure to match his baseball card for much of the first half proved to be very costly to the team. The Yankees will need Teixeira to continue improving on his meager .428 slugging percentage in the second half to help compensate for the relative decline in power that has beset the team.

Derek Jeter’s season has not only been a disappointment, but also the most curious. The Yankees’ short stop has alternated between hot streaks and cold spells, a level of inconsistency not usually associated with the Captain. Jeter has also struggled against right handers and failed to produce outside of the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Of most concern, however, have been a few underlying splits. In particular, Jeter has been swinging at more pitches out of the zone, which has likely resulted in a decrease in his line drive percentage. Fewer walks and more groundballs have combined to create a lag on Jeter’s SLG and OBP, which have fallen well off his career standards.  What’s more, after having one of his better seasons in the field, Jeter has also regressed with the glove. Although his UZR/150 of -1.7 is perfectly adequate, Jeter’s range has fallen off even to the naked eye. A strong second half by Jeter would be a major boost to the Yankees’ idling offense, but it would also make the Captain’s pending off season contract negotiations much less sticky.

Derek Jeter’s 2010 Splits vs. Career

The Ugly

Because of several key injuries, the Yankees’ bench has been pressed into duty on many an occasion, but mostly come up lacking. Aside from Marcus Thames, whose poor defense has weighed against his offensive contributions, the Yankees’ reserves have all been negative contributors, ranging from Juan Miranda’s -0.2 runs above average to Ramiro Pena’s -6.9. Francisco Cervelli, who has actually caught more games than Posada, had been a welcomed surprise with a strong April and May, but after posting an OPS of .521 in June, even that element of the bench has weighed down the team.

2010 Performance of Yankees Bench

The Rest

Despite slumping since returning from a broken foot earlier in June, Jorge Posada has still posted a wOBA of .375 and maintained a level of performance that has actually been above his career norms. However, Posada’s defense has continued to decline along with his health, making him a significant liability behind the plate. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez has suffered from a relative power outage, but has just now started to hit the long ball of late. Even without an early power surge, Arod has managed a respectable wOBA of .360 and still ranks third in the league in RBIs. If Posada and Arod can stay relatively healthy, then the Yankees should be able to look forward to increased production from these two very important members of the lineup.

The same problems that plagued the Yankees in June have spilled over into July. The offense continues to struggle, while the bullpen aside from Mariano remains a crapshoot. In yesterday’s ball game, Arod was able to salvage a win despite an otherwise lack luster effort from the offense, but today the Yankees were not so lucky. If changes aren’t made or a bat added, the Yankees luck is eventually going to run out.

Brett Gardner temporarily saved the Yankees 1-0 lead by making a leaping catch in the bottom of the eighth inning (Photo: The Canadian Press).

Recounting all of the Yankees missed opportunities in today’s game would overload the internet’s bandwidth. Inning after inning, the Yankees put men on base, but each time they came up empty, extending a hitless stretch with runners on base to 18 at bats. Of course, anyone following the team closely probably isn’t surprised by the lack of production. Since early June, the offense has been trending down, but the Yankees organization has done little to remedy the problem. As a result, the lineup regularly features an out or two, while the bench remains populated by minor league journeyman. For a team with the resources of the Yankees, that level of neglect is shameful.

Of further concern is both Robinson Cano (2 for his last 16) and Brett Gardner (0-7 since returning from being hit on the wrist) have joined the rest of the team in a lineup-wide slump. Cano and Gardner had been the two lone stalwarts in June, so their lack of production has really been a drain. Whether it’s acquiring another bat or promoting a prospect like Austine Romine, the Yankees are sorely in need of a boost, but is Cashman paying attention?

There was one small bright spot amid an otherwise bleak afternoon at the Stadium. With Dave Eiland back in the dugout, AJ Burnett turned in a very strong performance, keeping the Jays off the board for 6 2/3 innings before departing to a standing ovation. Boos had been accompanying Burnett’s departures as he stumbled through June, but on this afternoon, he was able to hold his head high. Aside from not surrendering a run, Burnett’s most encouraging achievement was his ability to handle adversity, particularly in the second and third innings when the Jays put two runners in scoring position. Unfortunately, Burnett wasn’t able to record a well deserved victory because in addition to receiving little run support, he was abandoned by his bullpen as well.

In what is becoming an all too common event, Joba Chamberlain once again blew a late inning lead. The Yankees’ erratic reliever was actually  lucky to escape without surrendering the lead as a spectacular catch by Gardner against the left field wall prevented further damage. By the end of his outing, however, the boos that alluded Burnett finally and deservedly rained down on Chamberlain.

After Mariano pitched a scoreless ninth, Dave Robertson was entrusted with the extra innings. Robertson did wiggle his way through the 10th, but eventually surrendered the go ahead run in the 11th before departing with the  bases loaded and one out. At the point, Girardi turned to the flammable Chan Ho Park who stayed true to form and presided over an additional four runs. Why Park not only continues to remain on the roster, but also pitch meaningful innings is a mystery, but with all of the other confounding moves by Girardi, that will have to remain a question for another day.

Girardi’s biggest flub in the game was failing to have Francisco Cervelli bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs in the sixth. Cervelli’s slump has been considerable, but Girardi allowed two hits in the game to dissuade him from what was obvious bunt situation. With Burnett pitching well and the Jays offense scuffling even worse than the Yankees, one extra run could have been a knock punch. Instead, Girardi allowed Cervelli to swing away, and he promptly bounced into a double play. Girardi used Posada’s lack of speed as his main alibi for erring with the decision, but the one thing the Yankees do have on the bench is speed. Excuses aside, the real culprit was Girardi’s systematic lack of creativity that has cost the Yankees during his tenure as manager.

The failure to bunt wasn’t Girardi’s only mistake in the game. In fact, the most glaring was the one he made just before Opening Day, and which he has remained committed to despite evidence to the contrary. By installing Joba as the “8th inning” guy before he actually earned it, Girardi has cost the Yankees a handful of victories. Chamberlain’s poor command has made him much too inconsistent to be regularly trusted with close and late situations, yet Girardi has continued to go with him regardless of the context. Compounding the Joba reflex in this game was the silly use of Damaso Marte to close out the seventh against the light hitting Fred Lewis. By burning Marte in that inning, he wasn’t available to pitch to the dangerous Adam Lind in the 9th. Lind had been 7-12 against Joba before the inning, and his eventual single helped set up the tying run.

Bad offense, bad relief pitching and bad managing: that trifecta added up another bad loss. Instead of putting space between themselves and their division rivals, the Yankees have ignored their weaknesses and hidden behind the veil of having the league’s best record. If the organization doesn’t address the team’s glaring flaws sooner than later, they will no longer have that record to provide them with a false sense of security.

AJ Burnett’s Pitch Breakdown

Despite finishing the month with a respectable 16-10 record and turning a two game deficit in the loss column into a two game lead, June was a time of contradictions for the Yankees.

On the surface, the Yankees appear as if they had a strong start to their summer campaign, but a closer look at the schedule reveals some disappointment. Of the 26 games played in the month, 14 were against last place teams (Arizona, Baltimore, Houston and Seattle) whose combined record exiting June was 119-193. Against those teams, the Yankees went 10-4, meaning they were only .500 against better competition. What’s more, their +12 run differential for the month suggests a more modest 14-12 record in June. Considering the relative softness of the schedule, the Yankees ultimate performance in the month can be seen as an underachievement.

AL East Snapshot: June

The biggest reason for the Yankees’ disappointing June was a stark decline in offensive production. After leading the major leagues with a whopping 5.9 runs per game in May, the Yankees lineup suffered deep declines in both OBP and SLG during June. The loss of production translated into a drop of over one run per game, putting the team’s offense on par with the likes of the Astros for the month and just a tick above the American League average in OBP, SLG and R/G.

Yankees’ Monthly Offensive Production

Although a small part of the team’s June swoon with the bats can be attributed to having the pitcher bat during interleague play (Yankee hurlers tallied only two hits and two walks in 22 plate appearances), the decline in production was really the result of a more pervasive slump. With the exception of Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner, who have emerged as two of the Yankees most important offensive and defensive players, the rest of the lineup hovered around mediocrity. Of most concern is the lack of production from Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriquez, two players who suffered injuries during the month. Aside from the lack of power from both players, their respective OBPs of .337 and .308 are particularly disturbing. Even on base stalwart Nick Swisher has started to make outs at alarming rates, but the most disappointing player in that respect has been Curtis Granderson, whose OBP for the month was below .300.

Compounding the Yankees failure to reach base as often as they did early in the season has been a corresponding decline in power. With only five home runs, both Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson led the team for the month. In fact, only Cano and Gardner topped .500 in slugging percentage, making for a less than explosive attack.

The Yankees depth, or lack thereof, was also exposed in June. After starting the season with lofty offensive numbers, the clock struck midnight on Francisco Cervelli, whose youthful exuberance is suddenly not as appealing with an OPS just above .500. The likes of Kevin Russo, Ramiro Pena and Chad Huffman have also offered very little contribution from the bench. Unless Brian Cashman addresses this glaring weakness before the trade deadline, there is little reason to expect an improvement off the bench, aside from Marcus Thames’ return from the disabled list. Where have you gone Eric Hinske?

Yankees’ June Batting

While the offense has struggled, the Yankees pitching staff has helped compensate…except for AJ Burnett, of course. Excluding Burnett’s disastrous June, the Yankees pitching staff posted an ERA of 3.33, which would be good enough to lead the American League. Amazingly, Burnett gave up 27% of all earned runs yielded by the Yankees in June. Considering that the Yankees were pretty much saddled with five automatic losses in the month, maybe the team’s record really wasn’t so bad after all? Unfortunately, Burnett has not yet proven that his June disaster was only a one month event, so such an optimistic interpretation may only be wishful thinking.

Yankees’ Monthly Pitching Performance

While Burnett’s struggles have been well chronicled, Phil Hughes’ also regressed a bit in June. Even setting aside his last outing, which may have been impacted by extended rest, Hughes saw his ERA in the month climb to just a shade below 4.00. Although not exactly cause for alarm (especially because he went 4-0 during that span), the Yankees will need Hughes to maintain his early season form throughout the summer months. Otherwise, the only real cause for concern during the month stemmed from the continued inconsistency of the bullpen, and in particular the erratic outings of Joba Chamberlain. Unless Girardi can figure out how best to align his corps of relievers, Cashman may also have to dip into the trade market to supplement that group.

Yankees’ June Pitching

Analyzing the Yankees can be difficult because the standards against which they are judged are lofty. Although it might sound absurd to suggest that a 16-10 month was a disappointment, for a team with 100-win expectations, such a statement is not far from reality. As the half way mark in the season fast approaches, the 2010 Yankees have still not established a true identity. At times they have been an offensive juggernaut and at others they have been a pitching powerhouse. Rarely have they been able to put both phases together, however, giving the team the appearance of struggling despite posting the league’s best record. It remains to be seen whether the Yankees can maintain their success with such inconsistency. One way or the other, we should find out in July.