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Looking for Postseason Patterns: Is October Success Really a Roll of the Dice?

October 1, 2014 by William Juliano

The major league baseball postseason is often referred to as a “crapshoot”, but is there any method to the madness that ends with a World Series champion? Are teams with a better record more likely to win in October, or is run differential a better barometer of postseason success? What about teams that are hot entering the playoffs, or those who performed better against stiffer competition in the regular season? Let’s take a look.

Regular Season Record

Since 1901, there have been 281 post season series, and the team with the better record has won only 53% of them. By individual series, only the ALCS has seen the better team emerge victorious more than 60% of the time. The same pattern also holds for more recent results. Since 1995, the team with a better record has won the ALCS 63% of the time, but the overall outcomes have been a coin flip.

Postseason Series Won by Team with Better Regular Season Record, 1901-2013
Regular Season Series Postseason RecordsNote: Bars represents percentage of teams with a better regular season record that won a playoff series. Number labels above aggregate categories represent total series played.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations

Post Season Series Won by Team with Better Regular Season Record, 1995-2013

Regular Season Series Postseason Records since 1995

Note: Bars represents percentage of teams with a better regular season record that won a playoff series. Number labels above aggregate categories represent total series played.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations

Better is a relative term, but a one or two game difference over 162 has little meaning. In order to avoid that conflict, series results were grouped into winning percentage ranges. Using this approach reveals that as the differential widens, the better teams tends to be more successful. In fact, at the extreme parameter (winning percentage difference greater than 0.100), the percentage is 81%, albeit in a more limited sample of 16 qualifying series. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Post Season, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yankees Put Losing Stamp on (Potential) Winning Season

September 24, 2014 by William Juliano

It’s official. With today’s loss, the Yankees will be heading home in October. However, 2014 hasn’t been a complete loss, at least not from a historical perspective. With one victory in the team’s final four games, the Bronx Bombers will secure a winning season for 22nd consecutive year.

Longest Consecutive Winning Season Streaks, By Franchise (1901-2014)
Consecutive winning seasons
Note: Data is as of September 24, 2014 (Brewers and Blue Jays could still have their season status change before end of the year); Blue bars represent NL; red bars represent AL.
 Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Yankees’ current stretch of 22 consecutive winning seasons would be the second longest streak of its kind in baseball history. However, it would be a distant second. From 1926 to 1964, the Bronx Bombers reeled off 39 straight winning campaigns, including 18 championships, 25 pennants, and a victory in over 62% of all regular season games.

Aside from the Yankees’ two winning season streaks of 39 and 22, the Baltimore Orioles boast the next longest stretch, which lasted for 18 seasons from 1968 to 1985. The best run put forth by a National League team is shared by the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals. The Braves enjoyed 15 straight winning seasons from 1991 to 2005, while the Cardinals run lasted from 1939 to 1953.

Franchise Winning Percentage Distribution, Since 1901
season distribution

Note: Data is as of September 24, 2014 (Brewers and Blue Jays could still have their season status change before end of the year).
 Source: Baseball-reference.com Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Mets, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Jeter, Gatorade Team Up to Honor Fans

September 18, 2014 by William Juliano

In July, Nike helped the country pay “RE2PECT” to Derek Jeter. Now, Gatorade and Jeter are teaming up to return the favor.

This morning, Gatorade unveiled a new 90-second commercial in which Jeter literally and figuratively tips his cap to the fans who have honored him during his final season. Set to Frank Sinatra’s “My Way”, the ad, which will begin airing on September 20, follows the Captain on a special farewell tour through the streets of the Bronx. This journey gives Jeter the opportunity to interact with fans, allowing the Captain to say thanks with various personal touches before culminating with his signature tip of the cap to the crowd at Yankee Stadium.

2In addition to the commercial, Gatorade also announced a series of sponsorships that will adorn Yankee Stadium during the season’s final home series against the Orioles. Starting on September 22, the Yankees’ dugout will feature Gatorade equipment, including coolers, adorned with Jeter-inspired logos in place of Gatorade’s G.

Too bad Paul O’Neill didn’t have a farewell tour.

 

Posted in Baseball, Derek Jeter, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yankees Offensive Struggles Come Home to Roost

September 10, 2014 by William Juliano

Playing .500 on the road while cleaning up at home has long been a prescription for success in baseball. No wonder the 2014 Yankees have been such a failure.  With only 10 home games remaining, the Bronx Bombers are at the threshold of their first losing season at Yankee Stadium since 1991, and the offense is entirely to blame.

Yankees’ Actual vs. Pythagorean Home Record, 1901-2014
nyy home recordNote: Oriole Park from 1901-1902; Hilltop Park from 1903-1912 (and Wiedenmeyer’s Park in 1904); Polo Grounds from 1912-1922; Yankee Stadium I from 1923 to 1973; Shea Stadium from 1974 to 1975; Yankee Stadium II 1976 to 2008 (and Shea Stadium in 1998); and Yankee Stadium III from 2009 to present. Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Yankees are teetering at one game over .500 at home despite being outscored by 30 runs in the Bronx. If the team finishes below that mark, it will mark only the 14th time in franchise history that the home crowd was witness to more losses than victories. Either way, the Yankees should consider themselves lucky to have won so many games at home. Barring an outburst in the final 10 games, the Bronx Bombers’ run differential at Yankee Stadium will likely go down as one of their all-time worst. To date, the Yankees’ Pythagorean winning percentage of 0.449 at home ranks eighth lowest in franchise history, and there’s still a chance it could crack the bottom-five. Continue Reading »

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Catchers, Runners No Longer Safe At Home as MLB Tweaks Collision Rule

September 10, 2014 by William Juliano

If Stephen Drew’s attempt to score the tying run in last night’s game had taken place on Monday, the Yankees and Rays might still be playing. However, a memo issued by MLB executive vice president Joe Torre earlier in the day altered the enforcement of baseball’s controversial rule 7:13 (see below for full rule text) and likely resulted in Drew being nailed at the plate. But, did the umpires and replay officials get the call right, and does Torre’s memo really provide the clarification it intended?

In the missive from Torre, which was obtained by ESPN, umpires were instructed to give a catcher more leeway to block the plate without the ball, provided he hasn’t “hindered or impeded the progress of the runner attempting to score.” The impetus for this adjustment was to prevent runners, who otherwise would have easily been thrown out, from being awarded home on a technicality. As Braves’ manager Fredi Gonzalez told ESPN, “If you’re out by 40 feet … let’s not call that guy safe.”

The rationale behind Torre’s memo makes perfect sense. If the catcher is standing in front of the plate, but the runner still isn’t in the picture, the position of his feet should be irrelevant. Rule 7:13 was intended to prevent catchers from impeding the runner; it wasn’t meant to create a no standing zone in front of the plate. But, how long is the leash? Can a catcher continue to put up a wall until just before the runner is ready to touch home plate, or must he yield the right away when the runner gets within a reasonable distance (what is a reasonable distance)? Last night’s controversial call hinges on the answer to this question.

In Exhibit 1, we see Drew and the ball approaching, while catcher Ryan Hanigan straddles the plate. At this point, there is no potential violation of Rule 7:13. Hanigan has provided a path and Drew is running on a direct line to home.

Exhibit 1: Drew and the ball approach home plate.
Drew1

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Rulebook, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Baseball’s Never-Ending Road to Ruin

September 5, 2014 by William Juliano

Baseball is ruined! Again. According to a recent article in The Atlantic, the culprit this time around is Pitch f/x, a “simple technology” that inadvertently wrecked the game by encouraging umpires to call a more accurate strike zone. Who knew adhering to the rule book could prove so detrimental? Well, besides Tom Glavine, who made the same argument over 10 years ago.

Despite being repeatedly pronounced dead, baseball's headstone has yet to be engraved.

Despite being repeatedly pronounced dead, baseball’s headstone has yet to be engraved.

Baseball has been ruined so often, an archaeology degree may become a pre-requisite for being a fan. Over the last 150 years, the list of things that have ruined baseball are too numerous to count. It would be easier to identify that which hasn’t killed the game than name every cause of baseball’s death. And yet, despite the frequent reports of the sport’s demise, so many still seem interested in walking through the rubble. It must be hard to look away from the destruction.

It’s difficult to say what first destroyed baseball. Ty Cobb often argued that Babe Ruth was the cause. Not only did the Sultan of Swat promote the evil home run over the beauty of fundamental play, he also had the nerve to habitually holdout for fair pay. Hadn’t Ruth learned from the experience of the Federal League, which ruined the national game by inflating salaries? Despite the restrictions of the reserve clause, and anti-trust exemption of the major leagues, greedy players, with their desire to unionize, continued to pose an imminent threat to the game. Not to be outdone, equally greedy owners, with their monopolistic ways and absurd innovations, like farm systems, were busy doing the same. These two factions competed to be the cause of baseball’s ruination for most of the 20th century, until they finally teamed up to destroy the game with free agency.

Who did the most damage during the free agency era? Was it free spending owners like the Yankees’ George Steinbrenner? Or ungrateful, overpaid, selfish players who only cared about the almighty dollar? What difference did it make? Because of the sport’s collective greed, labor discord abounded, and the bond between fan and team was inexorably broken. Once a populist game, baseball was now refuge for the elite and, as a result, destined for the scrap heap of the American sports landscape. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | 2 Comments »

A’s Struggles Could Lead to Rare Postseason Without Major’s Best Team

September 4, 2014 by William Juliano

The Oakland Athletics have underachieved all season. Even when they were playing well, the A’s winning percentage lagged their run expectancy by a historic margin. In mid-June, the deficit was the largest in the modern era, suggesting that, even though Oakland had the best record in the major leagues, the best was yet to come.

Oakland Athletics’ Actual vs. Expected Winning Percentage, 2014
As real vs expected

Note: For information on how Pythagorean record are calculated, click here. Data as of September 2, 2014.
Source: Proprietary data base with data from baseball-reference.com

Since mid-June, the gap between the Athletics’ expected and actual winning percentage has been cut in half, but not because the team started to fulfill its potential. Instead of playing up to its run differential, Oakland’s Pythagorean record began to decline, even as Billy Beane spared no effort to improve the team. After playing at .500 for the last 56 games, the Athletics have ceded first place to the Angels and allowed the Tigers and Mariners to creep within three games of their hold on the two wild cards. If the trend continues, Oakland very well could make history, albeit not the kind they were aiming for during the summer.

Even with a prolong stretch of mediocrity, the Athletics still have the best run differential (and Pythagorean record) in baseball. If that remains, and Oakland finds itself out of the playoffs, it will be the first time in the wild care era that a team with the major’s best run differential and expected winning percentage did not make the post season. In the division era, which began in 1969, only three teams share that dubious distinction, and, since 1903 (the advent of the World Series) this unfortunate list only totals eight.

Teams With Best Pythagorean Record/Run Differential but No Postseason
best not in playoffs*In 1978, the Brewers and Dodgers tied for the best per game run differential in the majors. The Dodgers won the NL pennant.
Note: The highest Pythagorean record doesn’t always correspond to the highest run differential. For information on how Pythagorean record is calculated, click here. Data as of September 2, 2014.
Note: Excludes 1904 and 1994, when no postseason was held.
Source: Proprietary data base with data from baseball-reference.com Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Oakland Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

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