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Every Jackie Robinson Day brings about a reexamination of the diminishing number of black America players in major league baseball. Unfortunately, some misguidedly present the issue as a residue of racism. We’ve seen Gary Sheffield and Torri Hunter both imply that baseball teams are willfully using Latin players to phase out the black American athlete. Of course, even if this was true, the exact same thing could be said about white American players. After all, while the number of black American players has declined from 17.8% in 1990 to 10.2% in 2008, according to the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sports, the number of white (mostly American) players has also declined from 70% to 60.4%.

Baseball needs to revise its amateur draft, but Commissioner Bud Selig is likely to stand in the way.

Making up the lion’s share in the decline of white and black American players has been an exponential increase in the number of Latino players. At 27% of the major league talent pool, the number of Latino players has more than doubled since 1990. Also, Asian players have carved out a 2.4% segment of the pool after not being represented in 1990.

What makes the racism angle so dicey is that many of the Latinos playing baseball are, in fact, black. It seems kind of odd to deny them this distinction based on their country of origin. It would be like not considering Jason Bay and Justin Morneau as white because they are Canadian. For some reason, however, many in the game and media have felt the need to make the separation. So, players like Robinson Cano, David Ortiz and Vladamir Guerrero are not considered to be black. Nonsensical suppositions like that only serve to cloud an already complicated issue.

In order for baseball to really address the decline in black, and yes even white, American players, we need to get past the smokescreen of race. Instead, our focus should be on talent, namely how can baseball ensure that the highest percentage of the most talented athletes in the largest number of countries are playing the game. Baseball shouldn’t really care what color skin its players have, but it definitely should be concerned if a segment of athlete is not playing the game.

Now, the question becomes, does MLB want to put its money where its mouth is? Tributes to Jackie Robinson and initiatives like RBI are all very useful, but they really don’t scratch the surface of the issue, which is investment in player development. To fully address that issue, however, baseball has to do something revolutionary…it has to either discontinue or significantly revamp the Rule IV draft.

The Rule IV draft was instituted in 1965 as a means to prevent larger market teams (mostly the Yankees) from either hording talent, or using surrogate teams to circumvent bonus rules that required players making a certain salary level to remain on a big league roster (for years, the Kansas City Athletics were referred to as a Yankees’ minor league team). At the time, most of the players were drafted out of high school, so there really wasn’t a noticeable impact on the kinds of players entering the league. With integration fully taking hold, the percentage of black American players jumped to nearly 30% in the 1970s. Continue Reading »

The entire Yankee team wore #42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day (Photo: AP).

Phil Hughes’  long-awaited return to the rotation was kind of an enigma. Although he certainly had good stuff, he was somewhat inefficient, needing 108 pitches over 5+ innings. Strangely, it seemed as if Hughes pitched ahead for most of the night, but then selectively nibbled. For example, after giving up a second inning HR to Hideki Matsui on a 92mph fastball, Hughes only threw him one more fastball in his next two ABs. Still, there was a lot to like. Most impressive was that Hughes used all four pitches (fastball that started around 94 and ended up at 91; sharp curve that he dropped in for strikes; biting cutter that elicited a number of missed swings; and an occasional change). If the Yankees can get Hughes/Posada to remain aggressive and not waste pitches when ahead, he’ll have the potential to dominate.

  • A 9th inning misplay (ruled a hit) by Derek Jeter cost Joba Chamberlain his second career save. However, if both Hughes’ and Chamberlains’ roles hold, and the Yankees best expectations for them are realized, that combination could figure prominently over the next several years.
  • On the other hand, Scott Kazmir exhibited rapidly diminishing stuff over the course of his 4+ innings. After starting out with a mid-90s fastball, Kazmir ended the game throwing around 87mph. Perhaps it was the lingering effect of the sore right hamstring, but then again, Kazmir has seemed to be undergoing a gradual decline.
  • Robinson Cano continued his hot hitting with 2HRs. It was Cano’s 5th multi-home run game, and first since April 25, 2009 against Boston.
  • Derek Jeter’s third inning HR extended his hitting steak to 9, tying his longest such string to begin a season (2006). Robinson Cano also extended his season long hitting streak to 9. Both Jeter and Cano are now halfway to Alex Rodriquez’ franchise record of an 18-game hitting streak to begin a season (2007).
  • Curtis Granderson’s two triples represented the fifth time he has accomplished the feat. Granderson’s last 2-triple game was on August 18, 2008 versus Texas. The last Yankee to hit two triples in a game was Bobby Abreu, who did so at the Metrodome on May 30, 2008. The last player to hit two triples at Yankees Stadium (old and new) was Enrique Wilson on July 3, 2002 against Cleveland. The Yankee record for most triples is three, held by Joe DiMaggio (August 27, 1938 versus Cleveland) and Earle Combs (September 22, 1927 versus Detroit).
  • Granderson also starred in the field by throwing out Hideki Matsui at home plate in the fourth inning. The replays showed that Matsui actually slid under the tag of Posada, who set up behind the plate.

    Hideki Matsui slides under the tag of Jorge Posada, but is called out by Home Plate umpire Jerry Layne (Photo: AP).

  • In the third inning, Arod used a hard slide to break up a potential double play ball off the bat of Robinson Cano. Even though the Yankees didn’t capitalize on the resulting 1st and 3rd situation, the play illustrated Arod’s all around hard style of play, something not always forthcoming from a star of his magnitude.
  • Francisco Rodriquez made his major league debut for the Angels by pitching the bottom of the 8th. No, it isn’t 2002. The Angels new “K-rod” is a 27-year old career minor leaguer.

Phil Hughes makes his long anticipated 2010 debut after throwing a couple of simulated games while awaiting his start. Meanwhile, Angels’ lefty Scott Kazmir is also making his season debut. Kazmir had been on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right hamstring.  According to Joe Girardi, Hughes will not be on a modified pitch count, although Kazmir very likely will be. Either way, this figures to be a game that will be decided by the bullpens. Randy Winn will also make his first start of the year. Winn, who will play left field against the lefty Kazmir, is joined at the bottom of the lineup by Marcus Thames, who fills in for Nick Johnson at DH.

vs. Scott Kazmir PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Derek Jeter SS 41 0.111 0.220 0.222 1 4
Nick Swisher RF 29 0.185 0.241 0.296 1 2
Mark Teixeira 1B 18 0.636 0.667 1.000 0 3
Alex Rodriguez 3B 30 0.125 0.300 0.125 0 0
Robinson Cano 2B 26 0.154 0.154 0.154 0 3
Jorge Posada C 28 0.440 0.464 0.680 1 5
Marcus Thames DH 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Curtis Granderson CF 6 0.200 0.333 0.200 0 0
Randy Winn LF 6 0.200 0.333 0.200 0 0
Total 184 0.241 0.318 0.385 3 17
             
vs. Phil Hughes PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Erick Aybar SS 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Bobby Abreu RF 3 0.500 0.667 0.500 0 0
Torii Hunter CF 2 0.000 0.500 0.000 0 0
Hideki Matsui DH 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Kendry Morales 1B 2 0.000 0.500 0.000 0 0
Howie Kendrick 2B 6 0.250 0.500 0.250 0 0
Mike Napoli 2B 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Brandon Wood 3B 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Reggie Willits LF 4 0.000 0.250 0.000 0 0
Total 19 0.240 0.307 0.403 0 0
  • In honor of Jackie Robinson Day, a special pre-game celebration involving the Robinson family will be held at Yankee Stadium and televised on the MLB Network. In addition, all players will once again be invited to wear #42. Mariano Rivera is the only player left who regularly wears that number, which has been retired league-wide.
  • Phil Hughes is the last Yankee from the active roster to appear in a game.
  • In 28 games/141.1 innings as a starter, Hughes has a career mark of 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and .778 OPS against. In 44 games/51.1 innings as a starter, Hughes has a career mark of 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and .456 OPS against.
  • Derek Jeter has hit safely in all 8 games he has played this season, one game shy of his career high of 9, which was established in 2006. The Yankee record for most consecutive games with a hit to start the season is 18, set by Alex Rodriquez in 2007.
  • Alex Rodriguez has yet to hit a HR, giving him 8 straight homerless games to start the season. His longest such stretch is 10 games, set in 2001 with the Texas Rangers. Arod went on to hit 52 HRs that year.
  • When Arod does finally hit his first home run, it will move him past Mark McGwire for sole possession of 8th place on the all-time list. Arod and McGwire are currently tied with 583 HRs.
  • Mark Teixeira has also been held homerless, and has all three of hits in one game. Teixeira looks to right the ship against Kazmir, against whom he has a lusty line of .636/.667/1.000 in 18 plate appearances.

The most remarkable thing about yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Angels was something that didn’t happen: no one hit a HR. Last year, Yankee Stadium did not host a homerless contest until June 18, 2009, the 35th home game of the season. In fact, that was the only homerless game at Yankee Stadium all season.

As many probably recall, the amount of HRs hit a Yankee Stadium last year was a cause for much consternation, particularly by those in the media. Buster Olney made the topic an almost holy crusade, regularly providing “Sand Box” updates on his blog. In fact, on May 23, he even went so far as to address one of my comments about his ignorance of sample sizes. Olney replied:

So I ask again of Williamnyy and others who are much more adept than I am when it comes to assessing numbers: Is the sample size large enough yet to say that the new Yankee Stadium plays like a bandbox? Or do we wait until records are shattered before we can say that? I await your guidance.

Thankfully, the Yankees didn’t fall victim to this short-sighted logic. When pressed on whether they would make any changes over the offseason, Yankee executives smartly refused to cave into the pressure. Not only did the HR rate abate as the season went on, but the Yankees managed to win a World Series, all while “playing in a bandbox”. Go figure.

Clearly, two games into this season aren’t any more conclusive than a small sample from last season. The overriding point, however, is you can’t overreact without sufficient data. Perhaps the dismantling of the old Stadium will have a muting impact, a theory that was suggested last season. Still, it remains to be seen whether the HR rate at Yankee Stadium will return to more historically normal levels. So, if Olney is still waiting for my guidance, no, the sample size is still not large enough.

Yesterday, Craig Calcaterra slammed Yankees fans for being classless and arrogant. Why? Because they supposedly booed Javier Vazquez during yesterday’s game.

These boos are almost certainly a function of people thinking back to 2004, which is amazingly weak given that, you know, the team just won the World Series five months ago. For a fan base that fancies itself so much more knowledgeable than anyone else’s, this was pretty bad.

Was Calcattera actually at the game? I was, and quite frankly, his take is a gross exaggeration of reality. Javier Vazquez was not booed. Sure, there were some audible groans when he gave up runs in the 3rd and 6th innings, but that’s what usually happens when the Yankees give up runs. For the most part, yesterday’s crowd was a very passive one, both for good and bad. Even when Vazquez walked off the mound the response was mostly indifferent, with a few offering polite applause and even fewer mildly voicing their displeasure. That does not count as “booing”…at least not in Yankee Stadium. Just ask Ed Whitson or Carl Pavano.

Yankee fans are far from perfect, and they have been guilty of senseless booing (see Arod). However, in this instance, Calcattera’s rant is much ado about nothing. If he is going to level such inflammatory criticisms, it would be nice if he was at least basing it off a first-hand account. Who knew that tweets about what one fan says were sufficient to form such a strong opinion.

Javier Vazquez looks to rebound from a rocky opening start to his Yankees reunion. He will be opposed by Joel Pineiro, who also seeks to erase bad memories from his Angels debut.

vs. Joel Pineiro PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Derek Jeter SS 31 0.222 0.323 0.444 2 2
Nick Johnson DH 19 0.267 0.333 0.267 0 2
Mark Teixeira 1B 36 0.258 0.361 0.581 2 10
Alex Rodriguez 3B 29 0.148 0.207 0.185 0 1
Robinson Cano 2B 7 0.429 0.429 0.714 0 1
Jorge Posada C 24 0.200 0.250 0.450 1 4
Curtis Granderson CF 11 0.111 0.182 0.111 0 1
Nick Swisher RF 25 0.300 0.400 0.350 0 2
Brett Gardner LF 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 182 0.241 0.318 0.385 5 23
  • Joel Pineiro has not started a game against the Yankees since July 18, 2006, when he was with the Seattle Mariners. He has not recorded a win against the Yankees since August 18, 2002.
  • Only Bobby Abreu and Torri Hunter have had a significant number of ABs against Vazquez. In 81 PA, Abreu has a line of .282/.358/.746, while Hunter has hit .205/.225/.359 in 40 PA.
  • Curtis Granderson and Derek Jeter both look to keep their season-long hitting streaks alive. Both players have had at least one hit in all 7 games played thus far.
  • The Yankees 5-2 start is their best since 2003, when they started 6-1.
  • The Angels 2-6 start is the worst for the franchise since 1972, when they also started 2-6.
  • Milestone Alert: Alex Rodriguez’ next long ball will put him past Mark McGwire for 8th place on the all-time HR list, while Derek Jeter needs one hit to take over sole possession of 47th place from Vada Pinson on the all-time hits list.

The driving force behind modern baseball statistical analysis, often called sabermetrics, is to replace subjective evaluation with objective analysis. Because the human eye has an inherent bias, the theory goes, opinions based on observation are more likely to be flawed. That’s a very reasonable approach. In fact, we see the same thing in fields like criminal investigation. Ask any detective if they’d rather have an eye witness or a DNA sample, and they’ll usually opt for the latter. The problem with many of the advanced metrics being used today, however, is their application has not been fully vetted. In fact, rather ironically, many rely on a hidden layer of observation.

The area in which sabermetrics encounters the most bias is in the evaluation of fielding. For years, this aspect of the game has defied the establishment of meaningful and reliable statistics. Recently, however, a whole host of measures have been created. Most notable, and most often referenced, among these are UZR, developed by Mitchel Lichtman, and the +/- system, created by John Dewans (both metrics are currently available on Fangraphs).

In a recent post on The Hardball Times (h/t Rob Neyer), JT Jordan took a look at some of the discrepancies that exist between the two metrics. In the analysis, he finds some interesting discrepancies, mostly based on sample sizes and calculation differences. However, what I think is more concerning about each statistic is the underlying data component (more on that later).

In a similar vein, Colin Weyers of Baseball Prospectus raised some questions about the validity of batted-ball data (trajectory data and location) data. There are two companies that currently compile this information: MLBAM, which uses stringers (or observers) at every game, and Baseball Information Solutions (BIS), which uses a video system.  According to Weyers, the method of data collection has had a meaningful impact on the eventual conclusions.

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