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Yankees Showing Age Up the Middle

July 2, 2014 by William Juliano

When the home plate umpire yells play ball this afternoon at Yankee Stadium, history will be made in the Bronx. With Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki penciled into the lineup, the Yankees will become the first team to start a 40-year old at short stop and centerfield in the same game (during at least the modern era; since 1901).

Jeter and Ichiro will become the first 40-somethings to start a game at the two prime positions up the middle, but two other Hall of Fame pairings previously accomplished the feat, albeit with one player coming off the bench. In 1927, the Philadelphia Athletics had a 40-year old named Ty Cobb, who wasn’t quite ready to relinquish his hold on centerfield. Cobb played 52 games in center that season (while batting .357), and, in one of them, was joined on the field by fellow legend Eddie Collins. Known more his play at second, Collins entered an August game against the Red Sox as a defensive replacement for Chick Galloway. Collins wasn’t in the game long, but it was enough to join with Cobb to become the first pair of 40-year olds to man the middle for the same team.

The following year, Collins reprised his role as a late game short stop replacement, this time as part of a double switch in the second game of a double header against the White Sox. When Collins took his position at short, once again standing behind him was a baseball legend who was past the age of 40. However, this time, it was Tris Speaker in center field for the Athletics, with the now 41-year old Cobb looking on from right.

It’s been over 85 years since two 40-year olds played SS and CF for the same team, but there have been a few near misses, including last year’s Yankee team, which had Ichiro shift over to center while a then 39-year old Jeter was playing short. In terms of starting players, however, only three teams have come close to employing a 40-year old in center field and at short stop. The 2010 Brewers, 2006 Giants, and 1985 Cubs each almost beat the Yankees to the milestone, but came up short…literally. In each instance, the center fielder had more then enough seniority to qualify, but the short stop fell on the wrong side of 40, including Craig Counsell, who missed the mark by only 17 days.

Almost 40-Year Old Pairings at SS and CF, 1901-2014 near 40 Source: baseball-reference.com (using season data from 1901-1913 and game data from 1914-2014). Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Derek Jeter, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | 3 Comments »

Like Birds of a Feather, Yankees, Orioles Flock Together

June 27, 2014 by William Juliano

Following a mutual off day, the Orioles rank one game ahead of the Yankees in the A.L. East. The season doesn’t end in June, but if it did, Baltimore would be listed above New York in the standings for the first time since 1997. And, if the Orioles do outlast the Yankees, it will represent the culmination of a three-year tug of war with the Bronx Bombers that has seen the two teams remain in remarkable proximity to each other.

Yankees vs. Orioles: Before (1998-2011) and After (2012- Present)
YANKSORIOLESCOMPARE2Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

From 1998 to 2011, the Yankees and Orioles were miles apart. During that time, the Bronx Bombers won 1,369 games and made the post season in all but one year, while the O’s racked up a paltry 990 victories and never finished higher than fourth place. Since 2012, however, the Yankees have fallen back to the pack and Baltimore has done its part to close the remaining gap. Over that span, the Orioles and Yankees have posted an identical wRC+ and comparable adjusted ERA, leading to cumulative records separated by only one game. The parity between the two teams has also extended to head-to-head play as each club has won 24 of the 48 contests, including the ALDS, since 2012. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baltimore Orioles, Baseball, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

No Defense for Yankees Fielding Woes

June 25, 2014 by William Juliano

The best defense may be a good offense, but, as it turns out, the worst defense is even better, at least for teams playing the Yankees. Repeatedly throughout the season, the Yankees’ defense has proven to be a greater threat than opposing batters, and never was that more on display than last night in Toronto.

There’s no defense for the way the Yankees played in yesterday’s 7-6 loss to the Blue Jays…literally. The comedy of errors began in the fifth inning when Derek Jeter made two crucial misplays that directly led to three runs. The coup de grâce was delivered by Yangervis Solarte in the ninth, when his throwing error on a bunt allowed the winning run to score. It was the Yankees’ first walk off loss on an error since 1997, but merely the latest of many games this year that have been marred by poor defense.

Yankees Walk Off Losses on Error, 1938-2014
walkofferrorNote: Play by play data is mostly complete since 1950 with gaps beforehand.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Derek Jeter, MLB, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Beltran Blast Brings Bombers Back from Brink, Joins Legacy of Two-Out Heroes in Yankee History

June 21, 2014 by William Juliano

Carlos Beltran is officially a Yankee.

An extraordinarily clutch hit has become a rite of passage for newcomers to the Bronx, and, with last night’s walk off home run against Baltimore, Beltran finally earned his pinstripes…in a big way. Not only did the struggling switch hitter rescue the Yankees from a frustrating loss, but he did so from the very brink. By performing his heroics with two outs, Beltran became only the 22nd Yankee since 1938 (based on available data) to author a walk off with the Bronx Bombers one out away from defeat, and the 10th to do it with a long ball.

Sudden Death Heroes: Yankees Come From Behind Walk Offs with Two Outs
sudden death winsNote: Play by play data is mostly complete since 1950 with gaps beforehand. Sudden death situations are deficits with two outs in the final inning (ninth or later). Source: Baseball- reference.com

Thanks to his clutch at bat in the ninth, Beltran’s WPA for the entire game ranks as the fourth highest in Yankee history dating back to at least 1914. However, he couldn’t have done it alone. Although Beltran’s blast was the keynote, the Yankees’ ninth inning rally featured two other sudden death at bats. Without Mark Teixeira’s walk and Brian McCann’s single, Beltran would have been taking an earlier shower (without the Gatorade), so his two teammates deserve their share of credit as well. Continue Reading »

Posted in Arod, Baseball, Don Mattingly, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | 5 Comments »

Yankees Reap What Gardner Sows

June 20, 2014 by William Juliano

The Yankees made several questionable decisions during the offseason. Signing Brett Gardner to a contract extension wasn’t one of them.

At the time, locking the speedy outfielder up for four additional years seemed like a low risk move, but with Gardner emerging as the Yankees’ best position player, the long-term deal looks better and better each day. Although it says more about the Yankees’ overall quality than the left fielder himself, Gardner easily leads the team in both versions of WAR, and, according to baseball-reference.com, has been worth more than the Bronx Bombers’ next two productive position players combined.

Defensive and Offensive Component of Gardner’s bWAR
GARDNER WAR components

Note: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to total bWAR because each one takes into account the positional adjustment.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Gardner has always rated well in terms of WAR. From 2010-2013 (excluding his injury abbreviated 2012), the fleet-footed outfielder has averaged a bWAR and fWAR of 5.2 and 4.4, respectively. However, during that span, a disproportionate amount of Gardner’s value has been attributable to defense. What makes Gardner’s 2014 performance more noteworthy is the sustained improvement in his offensive game. Now, not only is the left fielder a threat on the bases, but he has become a weapon at the plate, giving the Yankees’ a leadoff hitter with the ability to see pitches, get on base, disrupt the pitcher with his speed, and hit an occasional home run. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Oakland Earning Straight A’s, but Are They Being Graded on a Curve?

June 12, 2014 by William Juliano

There’s a wolf in Bud Selig’s hen house of parity. It just happens to be wearing sheep’s clothing. With a winning percentage of only .600, and a roster lacking many household names, the Oakland Athletics don’t exactly resemble a juggernaut. However, in complete defiance of league-wide mediocrity, or perhaps because of it, the A’s are quietly having a season for the ages.

Top-10 Teams Ranked by Relative Run Prevention, 1901-2014
Best run preventersNote: Rates are not park adjusted. League R/G rates are either AL or NL, based on each respective team.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations

The Athletics currently lead the American League in both runs scored and runs allowed, and, in both cases, by a healthy margin. In fact, the A’s relative ability to both score and prevent runs has been historic. Only 4% of all teams since 1901 have outscored the league average by a higher margin than the Athletics are currently trumping their AL counterparts. And, that’s nothing compared to the stinginess of the team’s pitching staff. Oakland’s astounding ERA of 2.83 is impressive enough, but, when compared to the league average, it yields the fifth best ratio in modern major league history (out of 2,376 seasons). Summing the Athletics’ prowess at scoring and preventing runs yields a relative advantage of over 45%, which is also the fifth best mark all time. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Oakland Athletics | 3 Comments »

Are Lucky Yankees Content with Mediocrity?

June 10, 2014 by William Juliano

After 62 games, the Yankees are a .500 team…and lucky to be so. The Bronx Bombers have been outscored by 31 runs, which equates to an expected winning percentage of .450, or three wins fewer than the team has now. Being outscored by one-half run per game might not seem significant, but the cumulative differential of -31 represents the franchise’s eight worst deficit after 62 games.

Yankees’ Top-10 and Bottom-10 Run Differentials after 62 Games, 1901-2014
run dif first 62Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even at smaller sample sizes, such a low run differential rarely bodes well.  With 62 games in the bank, the historical tea leaves become even more ominous. Of the 24 Yankee teams to get outscored over their first 62 games, only one recovered to make the postseason (1995), and the highest win total was only 89. A more normal path for such teams is a continued descent, and, so far, that seems to be the direction in which the 2014 Yankees are headed. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Hal Steinbrenner, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

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