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Yankees Rotation Depth Provides New Bullpen Blueprint for Girardi

March 19, 2014 by William Juliano

Does the answer to the Yankees' bullpen lie in their starting rotation depth? (Photos: Getty Images)

Does the answer to the Yankees’ bullpen lie in their starting rotation depth? (Photos of David Phelps, Adam Warren, Vidal Nuno: Getty Images)

Joe Girardi’s decision won’t be easy when it comes time to select the Yankees’ fifth starter, but not because the team is lacking in qualified candidates.

The Yankees entered camp with four pitchers in the mix for the final slot in the rotation, and each one has performed well enough to win the competition. However, although David Phelps, Adam Warren and Vidal Nuno have all pitched well, Michael Pineda has established himself as the front runner. With 14 strikeouts in nine scoreless innings over his first three appearances, Pineda has impressed scouts and opposing hitters alike, reviving some of the expectations the Yankees had for the big righty when they acquired him from Seattle two years ago.

Yankees’ Fifth Starter Competition

Player ERA IP H R BB SO
Dave Phelps 2.63 13 2/3 15 4 2 11
Michael Pineda 0.00 9 8 0 1 14
Adam Warren 2.08 8 2/3 8 2 2 9
Vidal Nuno 1.50 6 3 1 1 6
Combined 1.69 37 1/3 34 7 6 40

Source: mlb.com

Girardi really can’t go wrong filling out his rotation, but if Pineda wins the role, it could present the Yankees’ manager with some interesting options for the bullpen. In the recent past, the team’s blueprint has been to establish one or two late inning relievers as a bridge to the great Mariano Rivera, but with Robertson abandoning that role and ascending to closer, the Yankees do not have an overwhelming candidate for regular duty in the eighth inning (Shawn Kelly is the only pitcher who fits the profile, and his track record is less than convincing).

Instead of trying to shoe horn relievers into late-inning roles, Girardi might be better off building his bullpen around a rotation of long-men, especially if Warren, Phelps and Nuno all go north with the team. With three relievers capable of providing quality length, the Yankees’ manager could eschew his penchant for mixing and matching, opting instead to hand the ball off to a different member of the aforementioned trio on a scheduled basis. Although it wouldn’t be the same bridge every night, Girardi still might be able to create a reliable link between his rotation and closer. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Spring Training, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

No Joke: Francisco Cervelli Has Become a Trade Chip for Yankees

March 12, 2014 by William Juliano

Francisco Cervelli is the hottest thing in Tampa. The Yankees’ back-up catcher has been tearing up the grapefruit league, and, apparently, it hasn’t gone unnoticed around the league. With several teams in the market for a backup catcher, trade rumors have begun to swirl around Cervelli, and his performance so far this spring has validated the chatter.

Is there a pumped up trade market for Francisco Cervelli? (Photo: AP)

Is there a pumped up trade market for Francisco Cervelli? (Photo: AP)

The idea of Cervelli as a trade chip has to be a little amusing to some Yankee fans. For six years (yes, six), the 28-year old catcher has been more of a punch line than a performer. However, if the Yankees are able to deal Cervelli and receive something of value in return, the organization, and the catcher himself, could end up having the last laugh.

If other teams think Cervelli has potential, what do the Yankees see? Could the backup be a late bloomer? If so, maybe the Yankees shouldn’t be eager to trade him? Those are questions the team’s evaluators will have to answer, but it’s worth noting that history doesn’t like Cervelli’s break-out chances.

There haven’t been many catchers like Cervelli throughout baseball history. Since 1914, only 44 backstops have played in at least parts of five seasons before the age of 28 while compiling 400 to 800 plate appearances. These seldom used journeymen catchers have usually been very poor hitters, as 31 from the group posted an OPS+ below 75 during the span. Cervelli, whose OPS+ is 90, counts himself among the cream of this dubious crop.

Before and After: Little Used Journeyman Backups
BUC Journeyman

Note: Includes players with 80% games at a catcher, between 400 and 800 plate appearances, and an OPS+ of at least 75 in five or more seasons before their age-28 season.
Source: baseball-reference.com Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Brian Cashman, MLB, Roster Analysis, Spring Training, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yankees Spring Crowds Lag Amid Not As Great Expectations

March 5, 2014 by William Juliano

Fans packed into Steinbrenner Field to see Masahiro Tanaka, but other games have been less crowded. (Photo: NY Times)

Fans packed into Steinbrenner Field to see Masahiro Tanaka, but other games have been less crowded. (Photo: NY Times)

With 26 non-roster players invited to camp, the Yankees’ clubhouse in Tampa has been overflowing. The same can’t be said about the crowds at Steinbrenner Field.

With four exhibition home games in the books (excluding the contest against Florida State University), the Yankees are averaging well under 9,000 fans per game. Compared to most grapefruit league teams, that’s an impressive figure, but it represents a significant lag relative to the franchise’s recent levels. Despite being buoyed by a near-sellout for last Saturday’s game, which featured the debut of Masahiro Tanaka, the Yankees’ average spring attendance would rank as its lowest since 1995, the year before the team moved from Fort Lauderdale to Tampa  (click here for a chronological history of the Yankees’ spring homes). What’s more, the three non-Tanaka crowds were among the five smallest gatherings to watch the Yankees play an exhibition home game since 2002.

Yankees Historical Spring Training Attendance, 1975 to 2014
ST_2014

Note: Attendance includes only games played against major league teams at typical spring training facilities.
Source: Yahoo.com, ESPN.com, sportsbusinessdaily.com, springtrainingmagazine.com, and floridagrapefruitleague.com Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Spring Training, Yankees | 35 Comments »

This Year It Counts; Spring Training Takes On Heightened Meaning for Yankees

February 27, 2014 by William Juliano

Lately, when the Yankees make news in Spring Training, it’s usually off the field. Over the last decade, there have been various press conferences to announce retirements or make controversial admissions, but rarely have the Bronx Bombers used the exhibition season to forge their roster. This year, however, the team’s braintrust will need every last minute of Florida sunshine to make sure the 2014 season still looks bright when the Yankees break camp in April.

cc and pineda

Is Michael Pineda finally ready to join CC Sabathia in the Yankees’ rotation?

Conservatively, there at least five important jobs up for grabs in Spring Training, chief among them being the team’s fifth starter. Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren and Vidal Nuno are all vying for the role, and, according to Joe Girardi, each pitcher is starting off on an equal footing. Although it’s hard to believe Pineda won’t be given a slight edge, the performance of all four pitchers will play a significant role in determining who will round out the rotation. Meanwhile, with David Robertson slated to close, the Yankees will need to choose his replacement in the eighth inning. Shawn Kelley enters camp as the odds on favorite to win the designation, but he could be pushed by upstarts like Preston Claiborne or any of the trio that loses out in the fifth starter competition. Regardless of which reliever the Yankees designate as their late inning setup man, just about every bullpen role will likely remain fluid in the early part of the season, with the team possibly exploring a trade or reclamation signing like Ryan Madson or Joel Hanrahan.

There are also several important roster battles being waged by position players. The back-up catcher competition includes three contenders, including Francisco Cervelli, who, despite being the front runner, will have to re-claim his role after an injury and suspension riddled 2013. Nipping at his heels are Austin Romine and J.R. Murphy, although a strong spring by either could just as easily result in a trade.

After years of boasting one of the best infields in baseball, the Yankees now have more question marks than exclamation points around the horn. Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson are the team’s current answers for second base and third base, respectively, but it’s really more like “what” and “I don’t know”. It’s a stretch to think Scott Sizemore, Brendan Ryan, or Eduardo Nunez will push Roberts or Johnson for supremacy at each position, but if either incumbent should falter badly in March, Brian Cashman could wind up speed dialing other teams for a trade or cozying up to Scott Boras and Stephen Drew. Needless to say, the Yankees less than inspiring infield options not only place an onus on spring performance, but underscore the level of off season neglect in an area that used to be a relative strength. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Brian Cashman, MLB, Roster Analysis, Spring Training, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Bailey Breaks Free From Hughes Comp, Cashes In Good Timing

February 20, 2014 by William Juliano

It’s not how well you pitch, but when you pitch well. Just ask Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes.

Since making their major league debuts in 2007, Bailey and Hughes have compiled nearly identical career numbers. The similarity is fitting when you consider the two right handers have been closely aligned since each pitcher was selected in the first round of the 2004 draft and subsequently regarded as can’t-miss prospects. However, there was nothing comparable about the contracts signed by each pitcher this winter.

Phil Hughes vs. Homer Bailey: Relative Career Performance
hughes_v_bailey

Note: Rates represent the comparison between each pitcher’s aggregate performance in a given statistic.
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

Although Bailey’s and Hughes’ aggregate statistics are indistinguishable, the underlying trends are unmistakable. Despite battling injuries early in his career, Hughes managed to establish himself more quickly than his counterpart in Cincinnati. His gradual progress culminated in an All Star quality first half in 2010, at which point it seemed as if the Yankees’ right hander was poised for the stardom that so many had projected for him. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Hot Stove, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Jeter’s Farewell Signals End of Era and Uncertain Future

February 13, 2014 by William Juliano

And then there were none. The Yankees have said goodbye to a litany of legends over the last few years, but now, with Derek Jeter deciding to call it quits after the 2014 season, a golden era in franchise history is finally coming to an end.

Derek Jeter's leadership has been a throwback to the era of Joe DiMaggio.

Derek Jeter’s leadership has been a throwback to the era of Joe DiMaggio.

The Yankees have had many dynastic eras, and each has seemed to take on the personality of its most prominent player. The emphatic brashness of Babe Ruth was evident during the years of Murderer’s Row, when the Yankees barnstormed across the American League and, in the process, revolutionized the game and established the Bronx Bombers as New York’s most powerful team. Ruth’s braggadocio gave way to Joe DiMaggio’s elegance, which was predicated on quiet efficiency. The Yankee Clipper’s teams were relentless, winning year after year, impeded only by a World War. When it was time for DiMaggio to pass the baton, it ended up in the hands of the magnetic and mischievous Mickey Mantle. During those years, the Yankees were more than just a championship ballclub…they were a road show who hit each town at night just as hard as the opposing pitchers they faced during the day. Finally, in the late 1970s, Reggie Jackson was the straw that stirred the drink, and the entire ballclub reflected his arrogance, especially when the calendar turned to October.

There have been many stars in the Yankees’ universe over the last 20 years, but they all have revolved around Derek Jeter. The epitome of what the franchise aspires to be, the gold glove short stop exuded the same professionalism and dignity as DiMaggio, and his teams followed suit. Also like DiMaggio, Jeter earned the respect and admiration of opponents and teammates alike, and carefully honed an image he imparted to the team. For two decades, the Bronx Bombers were Jeter’s team.  After 2014, they will be no more.

Jeter wasn’t the best player to ever wear pinstripes. Some years, he wasn’t the best player on his own team. However, he will go down as one of the most significant figures in franchise history. His on-field contributions speak for themselves and his post season heroics have become legendary, but the role Jeter played in helping to revive and re-define the Yankees’ brand has been just as important to the team’s sustained success. After all, it’s much easier to talk about pride, dignity and class, and portray the franchise as a model of excellence, when you have a poster boy playing short stop.

For Jeter, team goals have always come first, so there can be no better send-off than a championship. However, because of his stature, the Captain’s victory lap will probably overshadow the team’s pennant chase. Jeter probably won’t like it, but for many fans, getting one last glimpse of the future Hall of Famer will mean just as much as, if not more than, simply going to see his Yankees. Of course, that distraction won’t last beyond 2014. What comes after Jeter? Hopefully not the deluge.

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Derek Jeter, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankee History, Yankees | 3 Comments »

Is Yankees Lineup in Good Hands with Teixeira’s Bad Wrist?

January 31, 2014 by William Juliano

If Mark Teixeira suffers another injury, it could leave the Yankees' lineup limp. (Photo: NY Daily News)

If Mark Teixeira suffers another injury, it could leave the Yankees’ lineup limp. (Photo: NY Daily News)

The Yankees have a lot invested in Mark Teixeira…much more than the $68 million remaining on his contract. Despite missing most of last season with what has gradually become a chronic wrist problem, Teixeira figures prominently in the Yankees’ plans for 2014 and beyond, a leap of faith that may not be justified, considering the progress of his rehabilitation and historical comparisons.

Mark Teixeira is a great player. Among the 1,460 hitters who have amassed 3,000 plate appearances before their age-33 season, the first baseman is one of only 180 to record an OPS+ of 130 or greater. He is also one of only 260 batters to come to the plate at least 6,000 times during the same span. This combination of being prolific and productive should make Teixeira a good bet going forward. However, because of specific injury concerns and general historical trends, his past doesn’t necessarily bode well for the Yankees future.

Playing Time Trends, Age-34 to Age-36 Seasons, 1901 to 2013
age_34_to_36

Note: Includes all players with at least 6,000 PA through their age-32 season.
*Includes only players from the first group that had 300 or fewer plate appearances in their age-33 season.
Source: baseball-reference.com Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | 11 Comments »

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