The Captain's Blog

Small Ball Takes Center Stage in MLB Playoffs, but Home Runs Steal the Show

October 8, 2013 by William Juliano

To bunt or not to bunt? That was the question being asked throughout baseball last night. And, thanks to a bit of dramatic irony, only one manager was left to suffer the slings and arrows of second guessers.

It’s amazing what you can do when you can’t bunt,” – Dodgers’ broadcaster Vin Scully during Game 4 of the NLDS

With the Dodgers trailing by one run, and Craig Kimbrel lurking in the bullpen, Yasiel Puig led off the bottom of the eighth with a double. Much to the chagrin of those who loathe the bunt, Don Mattingly called for a sacrifice, but Juan Uribe was unable to implement the plan. Luckily for the Dodgers, their third baseman had a better alternative. After his two failed attempts at small ball, Uribe responded with a long ball, proving that the best strategies are sometimes the ones that backfire…and then explode about 30 feet beyond the wall in left field.

Juan Uribe game winning home run followed two failed bunt attempts. (Photo: AP)

Uribe’s home run was a fortuitous turn of events for Mattingly, who couldn’t help but note the irony. “Why am I bunting him,” the Dodgers’ manager mockingly asked himself during the post game. Meanwhile, over 3,000 miles away in Tampa, Red Sox manager John Farrell may have been asking himself the same thing.

The Red Sox entered the top of the ninth inning trailing by a run, but it didn’t take them long to mount a rally against Fernando Rodney, who was closing his first game in the post season. The mercurial Rodney seemed a bit flustered from his very first pitch, and within no time, Boston had runners on first and second. This was Farrell’s brush with fate. It must have been tempting for the Red Sox’ manager to let his powerful offense lean against the Rays’ withering closer, but instead, he decided to play it safe. Even after Rodney fell behind 1-0, his seventh ball out of nine pitches, Farrell continued to think small. Unfortunately for the Red Sox skipper, Shane Victorino is a better bunter than Juan Uribe.

Farrell played for one run in the top of the ninth, and that’s exactly what he got. Then, in the bottom half of the inning, the Rays did as well. It’s impossible to say what would have happened had Farrell let Victorino swing away, but the decision to sacrifice is still very easy to second guess. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Don Mattingly, MLB, Post Season, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Ignoring Lessons of 2013 Will Ensure Yankees Go from Bad to Worse

September 30, 2013 by William Juliano

There’s no need for a post mortem on the 2013 Yankees because the team’s ails were easily diagnosable before and throughout the season. Although there was some deviation from the early prognosis, the Bronx Bombers really had little chance to survive the debilitating impact of pre-season injuries and off season cost cutting that left the team in such critical condition. Then again, maybe we shouldn’t skip the autopsy? It’s too late to save the 2013 season, but with the franchise seemingly poised to continue on a destructive path, a closer examination might be the only thing preventing next year’s team from suffering a similar fate.

The Yankees may have relied on smoke and mirrors all season, but it’s time to clear the air. Just because the Yankees weren’t officially eliminated from the wild card race until late September doesn’t mean they were a viable contender. Instead of marveling at the team’s ability to remain on the fringe of the wild card, the focus in September should have been on its complete capitulation within the division. Similarly, the Yankees’ 85 wins might imply respectability for most teams, but not the pinstripes, who have had a higher winning percentage in nearly 75% of their 113 seasons. Admittedly, that’s mostly a testament to the greatness of the franchise’s past, but such has always been the standard in the Bronx. Unless the Yankees are prepared to abandon that mandate, a comparison to the franchise legacy is more relevant than the number of games the team finishes behind the second wild card.

There’s no way to hide the disappointment of the Yankees’ 2013 season, especially when you consider the team was lucky to win so many games. With a negative run differential of 21, the 15th worst in franchise history, the club’s expected winning percentage was only .487. In other words, the Yankees, who had the league’s best record in one run contests, exceeded their expected (Pythagorean) winning percentage by six games. Although the 2013 Yankees may have been better off being more lucky than good, such a formula doesn’t bode well for the future.

Yankees’ Historical Actual vs. Expected Winning Percentage, 1901-2013

Note: Positive differentials indicate a real record above the Pythagorean expectation.
Source: baseball-reference.com Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Thanks for the Memories (a video tribute to Mariano Rivera)

September 26, 2013 by William Juliano

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Mariano Rivera, MLB, Video, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Wither Kuroda? Does Late Season Swoon Throw Dirt on Vet’s Yankee Career

September 25, 2013 by William Juliano

What happened to Hiroki Kuroda? After the first four months of the season, the veteran right hander was not only the best pitcher in the Yankees’ rotation, but also a legitimate contender for the Cy Young award. In fact, after a historic July, Kuroda was on his way to one of the greatest pitching seasons in franchise history. Then came the dog days.

The apex of Kuroda’s season was August 12, when he shut out the Los Angeles Angels for eight innings to lower his league leading ERA to 2.33. Since then, however, the righty has gone 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA, including a September that ranks as one of the ten worst by a Yankee pitcher. That’s not exactly the kind of history Kuroda was hoping to make, but regression to the mean can be cruel, especially when it takes place during a playoff race.

Ten Worst ERAs by a Yankees Pitcher in September

Note: Minimum 30 innings.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

When the Yankees’ re-signed Kuroda to a one-year deal, they would have gladly taken a repeat of his 2012 season. Well, maybe not the last part. In each of the past two years, Kuroda has stumbled down the stretch, causing some to wonder whether the 38-year old right hander is incapable of maintaining his effectiveness for a full season. As a result, the line of thinking goes, the Yankees, who are desperate to get younger and cheaper, might not be interested in retaining Kuroda’s services for another season. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yankees Honor Rivera and Pettitte, but Is Farewell to Arms Also Goodbye to the Future?

September 23, 2013 by William Juliano

The Yankees summoned the ghosts of recent glory to honor Mariano Rivera, but there wasn’t enough magic from the past to prevent the team from being haunted by its present.

Are Yankees prepared to move forward without Rivera, or has the franchise turned its back on the past? (Photo: AP)

In an emotional pre-game ceremony, a litany of modern pinstriped legends joined a sellout crowd to say goodbye and give thanks to Rivera. However, the festivities seemed to transcend their singular purpose. In addition to fêting the immortal closer, Mariano Rivera Day turned into a celebration of an entire era. The loudest cheers were for Rivera, but the fans were also delirious at the site of David Cone, Paul O’Neill, Hideki Matsui, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada. If only for a day, it was just like old times in the Bronx, a feeling that intensified when Andy Pettitte took the mound for the last time at Yankee Stadium.

Pettitte was so good for seven innings, it really seemed like the Yankees had turned back the clock. With the lefty going strong and Rivera lingering in the bullpen, the score may have been tied, but the outcome sure felt inevitable. Eventually, the ghosts would come to the rescue, just as they had so many times over the last 20 years. However, instead of being treated to late inning heroics, the eager crowd was witness to a clash between the greatness of the Yankees’ past and the mediocrity that had defined the team all season.

Over the final three innings, the Yankees had several opportunities to take the lead, but in each instance, the weakness of the current roster would frustrate those clinging to their memories. There was no O’Neill. There was no Matsui. Bernie and Posada weren’t coming to bat. Instead, the Yankees’ fate rested with withering veterans, untested rookies, and other hitters of dubious ability. With a cast like that, is it any wonder Mystique and Aura are no longer appearing nightly in the Bronx? Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Hal Steinbrenner, Mariano Rivera, MLB, Yankee History, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Selig, Umpire All Wet as Rainout Dampens Integrity of A.L. Wild Card Race

September 21, 2013 by William Juliano

MLB: Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians

The Indians were awarded a 2-1 victory after a one-hour rain delay, but should the umpires have waited longer to call the game?

Pennant races provide no rest for the weary. Just ask the Baltimore Orioles. After landing in Tampa during the wee small hours of the morning, Buck Showalter’s birds had to play a very big game against the Rays. Make that two games.

In the span of 24 hours, the Orioles went from staggering off a plane to stumbling off the field, the victims of a walk-off defeat in the bottom of the 18th inning. It took nearly seven hours for the outcome to be decided, but by the time the Baltimore players finally hit their pillows, it must have seemed like seven days. Fortunately for Showalter, his team won’t have much time to dwell on their exhaustion. With an afternoon game today, the Orioles are facing another early wake-up call.

If the Orioles lose out to the Rays for the wild card, last night’s game will probably stick in their craw. However, all’s fair during a 162-game schedule. Or is it? The Cleveland Indians might not be able to answer that question with a straight face. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Post Season, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Taming the A.L. Wild Card Race: A User’s Guide to (Just About) Every Tiebreaker Scenario

September 19, 2013 by William Juliano

The American League wild card race couldn’t be more aptly named. With six teams bunched together, the final week of the season promises to be a frenzy. In fact, there’s no guarantee the playoff picture will be any more clear on September 29. On the contrary, it could take that entire day just to arrange the tie breakers and then several more to decide them. As a pre-emptive measure against the chaos the now seems inevitable, below is a user’s guide to the Major League Baseball playoff tiebreaker system (bold and italicized text below is excerpted from this link).

I. Two-Team Ties

Two team ties are fairly straight forward. Depending on how many playoff slots are available, the participants would play one game to break the tie, with home field the only matter to be decided. For that reason, we can push aside this mundane scenario to focus on the more intricate three-way and four-way ties that remain a possibility. However, before fast forwarding to the end of the season, we first need to take a snap shot of the contenders’ current positioning.

American League Wild Card Standings and Head-to-Head Data

ALWCstandings ALWCh2h