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MLB Youth Movement Has Star Power

July 2, 2013 by William Juliano

Harper and Trout are just two of MLB's very young and very bright stars.

Harper and Trout are just two of MLB’s very young and very bright stars.

Baseball is once again a young man’s game. At least that’s the current narrative being used to explain an impressive crop of under-aged stars who have burst upon the scene. But, is youth really being served throughout the sport, or are these headline acts misleading?

Players (Age-23 or Younger) with an OPS+ of 120+ (minimum 100 PA)
23under120over

Source: baseball-reference.com

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Yasiel Puig, and Manny Machado have become the poster boys for the 2013 season. Each member of the quartet has quickly and spectacularly established himself as a superstar at an age when most players are still working their way up through the minors. However, these likely All Stars are not alone in their youthful brilliance. So far, there are 10 different players age-23 or younger who have posted an OPS+ of at least 120 in 100 plate appearances this season. If that group, which also includes the likes of Nick Franklin, Jean Segura, Giancarlo Stanton, and Freddie Freeman, maintains its performance over the entire year, it would represent the third largest collection of such players in baseball history. Obviously, there’s plenty of time to either add or subtract from that list, but the impressive display of talent is undeniable.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Close and Yet So Far: MLB Divisions Exhibiting Mix of Parity and Separation

June 28, 2013 by William Juliano

As MLB nears the midway point, each division seems primed for an exciting summer. The largest first place lead currently stands at only five games in the loss column, and 19 teams sit within that margin (including division leaders). However, despite the top heavy concentration of teams, the overall level of parity is more diluted, especially when comparing individual divisions.

American League Win-Based Standard Deviation, 1901-2013

AL_SD

Note: 2013 is based on pro-rating current records over the course of a full season.
Source: Standings data from baseball-reference.com

Based on pro-rated standard deviation, the 2013 win distribution in the American League is narrower than in all but 25 other seasons in the junior circuit. This level of balance is particularly acute in the East, where each team is at least break-even and six losses separate last place from first. As of June 27, the A.L. East also boasted a win standard deviation of 2.7, which, even if approximately doubled to account for an equal outcome in the second half, would represent the closest race since the division was first formed in 1969.

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Looks Who’s Talking; Cashman Rips Arod, but GM Needs to Take His Own Advice

June 26, 2013 by William Juliano

Brian Cashman seems to prefer a tight lipped Alex Rodriguez. (Photo: USA Today)

Brian Cashman seems to prefer a tight lipped Alex Rodriguez. (Photo: USA Today)

Alex Rodriguez may not have been expecting a re-tweet from Brian Cashman, but he sure got a direct message.

The last eight months haven’t been kind to Arod, who has endured an emasculating postseason, winter hip surgery and Biogensis allegations since last October. So, when the embattled third baseman finally received some good news, he couldn’t contain his excitement. After being cleared by his doctor to resume game activity, Arod took to social media to spread the word. Unfortunately, when the message finally reached the Yankees’ GM, it had turned sour. “Alex should just shut the f— up,” Cashman fumed after learning of his third baseman’s pronouncement. I guess you can add that to the list of things Rodriguez needs to accomplish down in Tampa.

As general manager, Cashman has every right to exert control over the flow of information. However, that doesn’t mean innocuous statements merit such a harsh, public response. Cashman could have easily voiced his displeasure in a private conversation with Arod, but instead, he opted for a public forum, effectively turning a tweet into a tabloid headline. That’s exactly what happened one week earlier, when the GM lashed out at hitting coach Kevin Long for providing information about Mark Teixeira’s injury that hadn’t been shared with him first. “Some people are better with the microphone than others,” Cashman said of his hitting coach. Although more diplomatic than his response to Arod, the message was the same. Coincidentally, the general manager could just as easily have been talking about himself.

During his tenure as Yankees’ GM, Brian Cashman has transitioned from keeping a tight lip to shooting from the hip, but with his recent comments, he may have gone too far. If there has been a breakdown in communication within the organization, the best way for Cashman to address it is not by lashing out, but leading by example. Arod and Long may have been imprudent with their comments, but Cashman’s response in each instance was just as inappropriate. Loose lips sink ships, so if the Yankees’ GM wants to keep the team afloat, he can’t be the one who is guilty of going overboard. In that sense, Cashman’s advice is dead on, but it applies more broadly then he likely intended.

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Yankees Pushing Their Luck With Depleted Offense

June 20, 2013 by William Juliano

The Yankees are a very lucky team, at least according to Pythagoras. After losing last night’s doubleheader night cap by a 6-0 margin, the Bronx Bombers have now allowed just as many runs as they have scored. Normally, being run neutral is indicative of a .500 team, but, despite recent struggles, the Yankees currently sit seven games over that threshold. Is Joe Girardi’s depleted squad the exception that proves Pythagoras’ rule, or, is the team’s luck about to run out?

Yankees Historical Pythagorean Differential
NYPythag

Note: Positive differentials indicate a real record above the Pythagorean expectation.
Source: baseball-reference.com

The Yankees’ winning percentage of .549 represents the franchise’s fifth largest positive differential over its Pythagorean-based record and eighth largest regardless of direction. In terms of distribution, only 15% of all team seasons have fallen within the 25 to 50 point interval in which the current campaign resides. However, it’s worth noting that the Yankees have made a habit of exceeding their run differential. In 70 season, or 62% of the time, the Bronx Bombers have bettered their Pythagorean record, so maybe there isn’t a shoe waiting to drop on this year’s team?

Yankees Historical Pythagorean Differential Distribution
PythagDist
Note: Positive differentials indicate a real record above the Pythagorean expectation.
Source: baseball-reference.com

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Who’s Sorry Now? Apologies Excepted as Dodgers Return to the Bronx

June 18, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The last time the Dodgers visited the Bronx, they went home with a trophy.

The last time the Dodgers visited the Bronx, they went home with a trophy.

The last time the Los Angeles Dodgers visited Yankee Stadium, their road grays were soaked with champagne. After losing the first two games of the 1981 World Series, the Dodgers swept the next four, including the series finale in the Bronx. It was the end of an era for the Yankees, and the transition to the next was punctuated by an apology.

“What would George Steinbrenner do?” After recent pinstriped disappointments, that question has become a common refrain. More rhetorical than inquisitive, the musing is often as pejorative as the Boss’ many outbursts, which, although scathing at times, were usually more overt when he tried to be subtle. In order to accomplish this passive aggressive effect, Steinbrenner used one his favorite weapons…an apology.

I want to sincerely apologize to the people of New York and to fans of the New York Yankees everywhere for the performance of the Yankee team in the World Series.” – George M. Steinbrenner, October 28, 1981

The corks had barely been popped in the visitor’s clubhouse before Steinbrenner’s printed statement was circulating in the press box. In addition to apologizing on behalf of his team, the Boss also made sure to damn his troops with praise for the opposition. “I also want to extend my congratulations to the Dodger[s]…a team that didn’t give up…and to my friend Tom Lasorda, who managed a superb season, playoffs and brilliant World Series,” the Boss’ statement concluded.

Needless to say, the Yankees’ players weren’t thrilled with Steinbrenner’s apology. “I don’t apologize for anything,” Reggie Jackson fumed, “I’m sorry we didn’t win, but we tried out best.” Conflict between Steinbrenner and Jackson wasn’t new, but Dave Winfield was getting his first taste. After going 1-22 in the series, which would later prompt the Boss to call him “Mr. May”, the Yankees’ newest slugger stated, “I’ve got no reason to hang my head…I’m proud to be here”. Eventually, that sentiment would change.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Don Mattingly, George M. Steinbrenner, Hal Steinbrenner, MLB, World Series, Yankee History, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yankees Offense Continues to Crumble; Are Hal and Cashman Ready (and Willing) for Plan B?

June 14, 2013 by William Juliano

The Bronx Bombers’ offense continues to make history this season, just not the kind Yankee fans have come to expect.

Scoring two runs in 18 innings has not been a problem for the 2013 Yankees. The team has already had two sets of consecutive games with either zero or one run scored, compared to no more than three such stretches in any season over the past 10 years. Not content with this mundane display of futility, the Bronx Bombers took their offensive struggles one step further yesterday by accomplishing the task in one game.

Number of Games in Which Yankees Have Scored One or Fewer Runs
NYY_1_run

Note: Red portion of 2013 is pro rated.
Source: baseball-reference.com

To be fair, the Yankees 3-2 loss to the Athletics in 18 innings wasn’t really a team effort. On the contrary, all of the “credit” belongs to the middle of the order. The not quite Murderer’s Row of Mark Teixeira, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, and Vernon Wells combined to go 0-28 in the extra inning marathon, giving the Athletics a no-hitter’s worth of outs from what used to be the most dangerous part of the Yankees’ batting order.

For their efforts, the Yankees’ 5 through 7 hitters were rewarded with a historic distinction. By each going at least 0-7, Hafner, Youkilis and Wells became the first pinstriped trio to combine for such futility in the same game. In addition, Hafner and Youkilis each posted a negative WPA worthy of ranking among the 20 worst rates in franchise history. With no men on base in front of him, Wells was spared a similar fate. Still, the black hole in the middle of the order was enough to give the Yankees their lowest recorded combined WPA.

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Posted in Baseball, Brian Cashman, Hal Steinbrenner, MLB, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Finding the Right Fit for Hole in Yankees’ Outfield

June 12, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Yankee outfielders have not provided much of a helping hand on offense. (Photo: AP)

Yankee outfielders have not provided much of a helping hand on offense. (Photo: AP)

The 2013 Yankees are giving new meaning to the word “out”field. In the team’s first 64 games, hitters occupying the three outfield positions have combined to post an unimpressive line of .258/.309/.401, which, in terms of OPS, ranks as not only one of the worst rates in the league, but also in recent franchise history.

Yankees’ Outfield OPS+, 1945-2013
Yanks_OF

Note: sOPS+ compares a team’s performance in a split to the league average. A reading above 100 is considered above average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Injuries have clearly taken a toll on the Yankees’ offense, and, undoubtedly, if Curtis Granderson had not broken his hand twice, the Bronx Bombers would be enjoying much more production from their outfield. However, the weakest link in the chain resides in right field, and the main culprit has been Ichiro Suzuki. When the Yankees decided to let Nick Swisher walk away over money, the plan was for Suzuki to provide comparable value at half the price. Instead, the offense has been saddled with a black hole as Suzuki and a cast of part-time players have combined to post an OPS of .651, the fourth lowest rate in the majors.

Much has been written about the short sighted decisions the Yankees made this off season, so it’s time to move past the mistakes of the winter and explore potential solutions for the summer. Although the offense has several weak spots in the lineup, the most glaring, and perhaps quickly remedied, are in the outfield. Also, even if Granderson makes a speedy recovery from his most recent bad break, the void in right field would remain, so Brian Cashman’s top priority should be trying to fill it.

Even though the new wild card format has most teams still on the periphery of the post season, some early season sellers are starting to emerge. Listed below are five candidates who would fit well with the Yankees as either an immediate stop gap or more long-term solution. The potential trade targets are listed in order of the perceived likelihood of the Yankees being able to consummate a trade for them.

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Posted in Baseball, Brian Cashman, MLB, Roster Analysis, Trades, Yankees | 1 Comment »

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