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Subway Series Preview and Historical Look

May 25, 2013 by William Juliano

Memorial Day kicks of a new era in the Subway Series. Instead of playing two non-consecutive series in each team’s ballpark, the Yankees and Mets will now play a four-game home-and-home series to determine bragging rights.

Subway-Series-Yankees-Mets-Citi-Field-mSince the Subway Series was first played in 1997, the Yankees have won 54 of the 90 contests (58 of 95 including the 2000 World Series), which have comprised eight series victories, including one sweep, against two defeats and six draws. At Yankee Stadium, the Bronx Bombers have won 29 games, while in Flushing, they’ve come out on top 25 times, giving the pinstripes the edge in both boroughs.

There aren’t many players on either active roster who have much experience in the Subway Series. On the Mets side, only David Wright has played in a meaningful number of games, while for the Yankees, Robinson Cano is now the series’ elder statesman with so many of his teammates watching from the disabled list. Because of the turnover on both teams, this year’s showdown will be more about introducing new players to the rivalry than renewing old acquaintances. In particular, Matt Harvey’s debut against the Yankees will likely be the week’s seminal event, and the scheduled match-up against Hiroki Kuroda should help compensate for some of the waning interest that has resulted since the Mets fell on hard times.

As the Mets and Yankees get set to write another chapter in the Subway Series, it’s always nice to look back. So, in honor of next week’s cross-town showdown, below is historical look at both team and individual performances. In addition to the results on the field, a historical look at ticket prices is also provided by TiqIQ, which, as a new partner of the Captain’s Blog, has lots of affordable seats available to the upcoming four games.

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Posted in Baseball | 1 Comment »

What Do Looking vs. Swinging Rates Say About Rise in Strikeouts?

May 22, 2013 by William Juliano

Strikeouts are up in 2013, and there are many theories why. Patient hitters, hard throwing pitchers, and eager umpires have all been cited as accomplices, and there is enough circumstantial evidence to cast suspicion on the lot.

All strikeouts are not created equal. Some result from a called third strike, while others occur when a hitter goes down swinging. Although the outcome is the same, the balance between the two might offer a clue as to which suspects are most responsible for the recent surge.

2013 Strikeout Breakdown

2013krates

Note: Data through May 21, 2013 encompassing 51,051 plate appearances.
Source: Data manually compiled from baseball-reference.com

Entering play today, there have been 10,199 strikeouts, good for one in every five plate appearances this season. Of that total, just over 75% have been the result of a swinging strike, while approximately 24% were called by the umpire (the other 1% are bunt-related events). Unfortunately, strikeout classification data are not readily available, so a full historical comparison isn’t an easy task. However, by comparing this year’s two-month results to a similar period in 2003, when the strikeout rate was a prior decade low 16.4%, we can get a sense about which type of strikeout has fueled the overall trend.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Sports Illustrated’s Verducci Comes Out Swinging Again at MLB Hitters

May 21, 2013 by William Juliano

Tom Verducci has struck again. In an effort to pound home his theory that baseball’s decline in offense is in large part related to the more patient approach adopted by modern hitters, the senior SI columnist has once again run the numbers and, despite evidence to the contrary, run wild with his conclusions.

Last month, Verducci dipped his toe into the waters of statistical analysis and concluded that patience, among hitters at least, may not be a virtue. In his eagerness to prove that taking too may pitches has led to more strikeouts and fewer runs, Verducci made a lot of sloppy claims. For example, he compares last year’s league-wide performance in 3-0 counts to 2002, and, by showing a deficit of 29 hits, concludes that this “automatic take” is depressing offense. However, Verducci doesn’t mention several pertinent facts, including the 1,024 additional 3-0 counts that took place in 2002.

League Wide Splits in 3-0 and After 3-0 Counts, 2002 vs. 2012
3-0 SPLITS

Note: tOPS+ is a comparison of OPS in each split to the league’s overall rate. Above 100 is considered above the baseline.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Although a higher percentage of plate appearances were decided on 3-0 in 2002 (i.e., did not progress to 3-1), the difference is not nearly as significant as Verducci implies, and that’s without considering the number of times the at bat progressed because of a foul ball or swing and miss (i.e., not passively taking a called strike). What’s more, if Verducci’s overall claim is correct, we should see lower offensive production, not only in 3-0 counts, but plate appearances decided thereafter. Once again, there is no such evidence. In fact, performance in both splits was superior in 2012.

Another dubious claim made by Verducci in this April column was the correlation he implies between swinging at the first pitch and striking out. To support his argument, Verducci provides a chart displaying the two rates in five year intervals that seems to show a clear connection. “Do the math”, he triumphantly writes. However, as many have noted, including mostly recently Dave Cameron at fangraphs.com, there are several holes in Verducci’s theory. Using a variety of plate discipline rates, Cameron convincingly shows that several other factors could be influencing the increased number of strikeouts in the game today. To be fair, Cameron’s analysis doesn’t necessarily “debunk” Verducci’s claim, but it does provide a more thorough, and plausible, theory to explain the decline in runs scored.

Unbowed by the criticism he received for his original treatise, Verducci has once again tried to shoe horn his theory into another article on SI. Although it isn’t likely to sway him to the contrary, below is an itemization of the evidence Verducci offers along with either a rebuttal or necessary context that mitigate the weight of his implied conclusions. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Media, MLB, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Is CC Sabathia Still an Ace?

May 21, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Is CC Sabathia still king of the hill? (Photo: Keith Allison via Flicker)

Is CC Sabathia still king of the hill? (Photo: Keith Allison via Flicker)

The Yankees entered the 2013 season with a lot of question marks, but so far, the pitching staff has had all the answers. The Yankees currently lead the American League in ERA, and boast what would be one of the highest ERA+ rates in franchise history, so, needless to say, the mound has not been an area of concern. However, the Yankees do have a few first world pitching problems. One of them is named CC Sabathia.

CC Sabathia’s Average Velocity, 2007 to YTD 2013

Sabvelo

Note: click here for illustrative charts of Sabathia’s pitch characteristics and here for a chart displaying average velocity by month.
Source: fangraphs.com

The rest of the league isn’t going to take up a collection for Sabathia, whose 3.43 ERA is in line with his career rate, but it’s been hard not to come away from his outings with some minor concerns. The most obvious red flag has been the big lefty’s diminished velocity, which has been down approximately 4mph off recent highs and two ticks from last year’s average speed. Granted, Sabathia’s fastball is still north of 90mph, and plenty of pitchers have been successful at that speed, but, as the gap with his change-up narrows, the left hander may need to compensate in some other way. Although the sample size is admittedly small for such an evaluation, Sabathia’s fastball and change are each rated below average in terms of pitch type linear weights, and the lack of deception could be one of the causes (one of the effects could be a lower swing rate on pitches out of the zone).

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Posted in Baseball | 2 Comments »

Too Close For Comfort? History’s Take On Yankees’ Record In One-Run Games

May 16, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The Yankees haven't enjoyed too many laughers this season.

The Yankees haven’t enjoyed too many laughers this season.

One of the keys to the Yankees’ early success has been their ability to win close games. So far, one third of the Yankees’ victories have been decided by one run, which some might suggest indicates good fortune, while others see evidence of a team that knows how to win. There’s no use trying to settle that chicken-and-egg debate, but we can examine the historical characteristics of teams that have thrived in nail biters.

Yankees’ Historical Record in One-Run and Non One-Run Games, 1901-2013

1rwpct

Source: Baseball-reference.com

If the Yankees continue to win 80% of one-run games, they’d not only set a franchise record but also surpass the all-time mark, which was established last season by the Baltimore Orioles (29-9; .763 winning percentage). In addition, it would also likely represent the greatest seasonal discrepancy between the Yankees’ winning percentage in games decided by one run compared to all others, which is significant because the Bronx Bombers have never made the post season with anything approaching such a large divergence. In fact, in the 34 seasons when the Yankees won a higher percentage of one-run games than those settled by two or more runs, the team made the post season only five times (last occurring in 2005, when the difference was 5.6 percentage points, versus 23.3 currently), and almost half the time, they wound up finishing the regular season below .500.

Although the Yankees’ past success has rarely been fueled by a special ability to win one-run games, most of the top performing teams in games decided by this narrow margin have done well in the regular season. Among the top-203 one-run game records in major league history, nearly 42% were turned in by teams with a full season winning percentage over .600, and 73% by those with a rate of at least .550. That seems encouraging, but there’s a catch. Over 20% of the top one-one records in major league history came from teams that actually did better when the margin was two or more runs. If you remove these elite teams from the equation, 65% of the top one-run teams posted a full season winning percentage of .550 or better, and only 27% finished above .600.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | 2 Comments »

CSI Yankees: Mystery Photo Contest #2

May 13, 2013 by William Juliano

Yankees Then and Now

Can you identify the date, as well as the inning, of the game depicted in the photo below? If so, you can win a handsome pictorial history of the Bronx Bombers (“New York Yankees Then and Now”), published by Thunder Bay Press.

Photo Contest 2

Although at first glance it might seem impossible to discern when the action took place, there are enough clues in the photo to figure it out.  So, get your magnifying glasses out and be sure to search every inch of the photo. Once you have determined the correct date and inning, post it in the comments section below (be sure to include a valid email when filling out the form) along with an explanation of how you solved the mystery. The first person to come up with the right answer, as well as a logical basis for determining it, will win the book. And, if you get stumped, feel free to leave behind whatever evidence you were able to uncover. Only one person will win the prize, but remember, baseball is a team sport.

Finally, if you don’t win this time, additional mystery photo contests will be held periodically (with another baseball-themed prize), so keep checking back for your chance to crack the case. Also, click here for a previous photo contest.

Posted in Baseball, Contest, MLB, Yankees | 6 Comments »

Despite Muted Impact, Discord Between Joba and Rivera Speaks Volumes

May 12, 2013 by William Juliano

In response to a perceived slight from Rivera, Chamberlain was unable to turn the other cheek (Photo: AP)

In response to a perceived slight from Rivera, Chamberlain was unable to turn the other cheek (Photo: AP)

If Joba Chamberlain makes a lot of noise, but Mariano Rivera isn’t there to hear it, does the story generate headlines?

Before last night’s game, the Yankees’ emotional middle reliever and calm closer had a brief exchange triggered by Chamberlain’s ebullient interaction with family and fans, while Rivera was giving a somber interview to reporters. Unable to concentrate on the questions being asked, Rivera reportedly called out for Chamberlain to keep it down, but the request was met with indignation.

From Chamberlain’s standpoint, the recap above is probably a tad pejorative. After all, the right hander was simply trying to communicate with his family, which, for ball players who spend most of the year away from home, is often a rare and cherished opportunity. Considered in that context, it’s easy to see why Mariano’s mild scolding might ruffle Joba. After all, no one likes to be admonished, especially in front of family.

Although Chamberlain’s feelings can be excused, his actions can not. As a teammate for seven years, there was no reason for Chamberlain to misconstrue Rivera’s request. Also, the middle reliever needs to realize that when he is on the field in uniform, he is doing his job. That doesn’t mean he can’t socialize before a game, but when a teammate is actually working (in this case, doing an interview), his personal time must take deference to business.

In addition, even if Rivera’s admonishment was out of line, and Joba felt compelled to express displeasure, it should have been done away from the ears of the fans and media. Instead, the 27-year old middle reliever showed no such restraint, opting instead to snidely mock Rivera’s request and then confront the 43-year old closer in front of a group of reporters eager to let everyone else in on what should have been a private moment.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | 1 Comment »

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