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Did Rafael Soriano (and Scott Boras) Get the Last Laugh?

January 16, 2013 by William Juliano

When ownership went over Brian Cashman’s head to sign Rafael Soriano before the 2011 season, the franchise was called foolish. That two opt outs were included in his contract heightened the criticism, which seemed sensible after the reliever’s first-year struggles in pinstripes. However, when Mariano Rivera was lost for the season in 2012, and Soriano stepped into the closer’s role without missing a beat, the Yankees no longer looked silly. Insurance policies always make more sense when you have to cash them in.

Soriano will be trading in his pinstripes for a Nationals' jersey. (Photo: Getty Images)

Soriano will be trading in his pinstripes for a Nationals’ jersey. (Photo: Getty Images)

This off season, it was Soriano’s turn to have his decision making called into question. After opting out of the final year of his contract, the right hander also turned down the Yankees’ qualifying offer of approximately $13.3 million (which, combined with a $1.5 million buyout, would have brought his total earnings to just below $15 million). Then, he waited for the free agent suitors to come calling. The wait was much longer than he probably expected.

The market for closers was already lukewarm, but, with draft pick compensation tied to his acquisition, Soriano didn’t find a long line of general managers beating a path to his door. Had the reliever misjudged his worth? Perhaps he would have been better off accepting the Yankees’ one-year deal? Not only were these commonly asked questions in the media, but they probably crossed Soriano’s mind as well.

Scott Boras has mastered the waiting game. Instead of striking early in the winter, the agent prefers to bide his time, realizing it only takes one team to create a market. This year, however, it began to look as if Boras had made a costly miscalculation. It was even reported that he went back to the Yankees with his hat in hand, but was turned away without so much as a conversation. Many around baseball began to snicker at the much maligned agent. Until yesterday, that is, when Soriano and Boras had the last laugh. Or did they? Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Free Agents, Hot Stove, MLB, Yankees | Tagged | 2 Comments »

Yankees’ Front Office Rift? Examining Potential Cashman, Steinbrenner Conflict

January 12, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have enjoyed a good relationship, but will it become strained by the team's budget? (Photo: Getty Images)

Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have enjoyed a good relationship, but will it become strained by the team’s new budget? (Photo: Getty Images)

On Thursday, Hal Steinbrenner opened up a bit about the Yankees’ new austerity program, but most of his comments spawned more questions than answers. Considering the hasty manner in which the team’s plan to dip below the $189 million payroll threshold has been devised, even Steinbrenner may not have a complete handle on it just yet. And, if that’s true, the lines of communication within the organization run the risk of breaking down.

One week earlier, Brian Cashman had some curious comments of his own. Speaking to reporters, the Yankees’ GM struck an almost defiant tone, stating, “I know a lot of people have told me they think home runs are bad. I’m not one of them. Well, those people are going to get a chance to see what it looks like.” Cashman then opened up about the Yankees’ significant power drain, concluding, “I do believe power is big in an offense and we lost a lot of home runs.”

Cashman’s remarks could have been delivered by any Yankee fan, which is what made them seem so out of place. After all, as general manager, Cashman is the architect of the team’s roster, so if he perceives a significant deficiency, why hasn’t he done anything about it? Also, to whom was Cashman referring when he stated “a lot of people”? The media? Fans? Or, others within the organization?

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Brian Cashman, Hal Steinbrenner, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Hal Steinbrenner Gives State of the Yankees; Raises More Questions than Answers

January 10, 2013 by William Juliano

Hal Steinbrenner emerged from his pinstriped tower earlier today and was shocked…shocked…to hear that Yankee fans aren’t very happy about the team’s new cost cutting philosophy. Was this feigned indignation or genuine naïveté? Let’s take a closer look.

I’m surprised to hear that there’s anger if you see what we’ve done this off-season. Like I said, we’ve signed three or four of the top free agents on the market, because we’re going to continue to field a championship-caliber team.” – Hal Steinbrenner, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2013

The Yankees are depending upon Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Ichiro Suzuki and Kevin Youkilis to be major contributors in 2013, but were they really the cream of the free agent crop? With the likes of Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, B.J. Upton, and Michael Bourn on the market, that’s probably an exaggeration. Besides, those signings did not improve the club as much as maintain the status quo. With several other high profile players, like Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano, departing the club, the net impact of free agency on the Yankees has been negative.

How many World Series winning teams the last 10 years had a payroll over 189? One. You don’t have to have a $200 million payroll to do that.” – Hal Steinbrenner, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2013

Steinbrenner is right. The 2009 Yankees are the only team to win the World Series with a payroll of more than $189 million. That’s a fact. Unfortunately, it’s irrelevant. The Yankees aren’t built to win an occasional World Series. Their mission is to win it every year. That’s not the opinion of an arrogant fan. It’s a mandate heavily promoted by the team.

The Yankees haven’t had a payroll below $189 million since 2004, and, although the team has only won one championship during that period, it has enjoyed unparalleled success. Not only do the Bronx Bombers have the most wins over that span, but they have also made the postseason in all but one season. So, even though $189 million may be enough to build a champion, a perennial winner takes a more substantial investment.

Yankees’ Payroll as a Percentage of MLB Revenue and Total Payroll, 2001, 2003-2012
NYY_Payroll_vs_League

Source: Cots Contracts and Forbes; 2012 revenue based on reported figure of $7.5 billion

Finally, it’s worth noting that in 2014, a $189 million payroll would only be 2.5% of industry revenue (assuming no growth over the next two seasons, which is an extreme bear case).  Since 2001, the team’s lowest percentage of payroll relative to league revenue was last year’s 2.8%. In addition, the percentage of Yankee dollars spent versus the amount doled out around the league has also been in decline. In relative dollar terms, the Yankees’ cost cutting is even more significant than if taken at face value. As a self proclaimed finance geek, Steinbrenner knows this. Apparently, by using this logic, he doesn’t think anyone else does. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Hot Stove, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Tagged | 3 Comments »

The Gaylord Perry Problem: Hall of Fame Already Has a Cheater in Its Midst

January 10, 2013 by William Juliano

Perry's mastery of the spitter had umpires feeling helpless. (Photo: Plain Dealer)

Perry’s mastery of the spitter had umpires feeling helpless. (Photo: Plain Dealer)

Hall of Fame voters have taken character into account since the very first election, but, ultimately, it has rarely been given significant weight, at least not on many ballots. However, the issue of performance enhancing drugs is more than just a question of morality. Authenticity, not personal integrity, seems to be the driving force behind the movement to keep cheaters out of Cooperstown. Of course, there’s just one problem with this crusade. His name is Gaylord Perry.

Perry’s first two seasons in the majors were abbreviated. In only 119 innings, most coming in relief, the righty posted a 4-7 record with an abysmal ERA of 4.46 (ERA+ of 77). And, his third season in 1964 began the same way.  On May 30, Perry’s ERA of 4.76 put him in line for another disappointing year, and perhaps a one-way ticket back to the minors. However, the righty refused to accept that fate. The next day, he threw his first spitter…and 10 shutout innings against the Mets.

On May 31, 1964, I became an outlaw in the strictest sense of the word-a man who lives outside the law, in this case the law of baseball.” – Gaylord Perry, excerpted from Me and the Spitter(1974)

There is no mystery behind Perry’s career resurgence. In his autobiographical confession, “Me and the Spitter”, Perry admitted to, and even boasted about, his crime. What’s more, he knew full well the implications. Unable to compete with his god-given talent, Perry opted for a shortcut. In other words, he cheated.

MeAndTheSpitterPerry’s dalliance with spitter is well documented, so there’s no need for a rehash. It’s universally accepted that the righty’s success was largely based on his ability to master a pitch that had been outlawed in 1920 because it was so difficult to hit. So, why is this relevant now? Because in addition to failing the character test, Perry’s accomplishments can be challenged on the basis of authenticity.

The most stridently anti-PED voters in the BBWAA dismiss the moral equivalency of using steroids and corking a bat, for example. And, to be fair, there’s a lot of merit to that argument. However, Perry’s spitter can’t be dismissed as gamesmanship. His willful use of an illegal and highly effective performance enhancing pitch is at least akin to taking a supplement. Just because he was loading up the ball, and not his body, doesn’t mitigate his actions. On the contrary, Perry’s spitball is arguably an even greater transgression when you consider the uncertain link between some drugs and baseball performance (specifically HGH, which one leading scientist suggests may be a placebo).

With so much damning evidence against Perry, most courtesy of his own admissions, why did the BBWAA decide to elect him to the Hall of Fame? It’s hard to speak for every voter, but by all accounts, the folksy Perry was a nice guy. Besides, he wasn’t injecting drugs in a steamy weight room. The righty was standing tall on the mound, loading up the ball with vasoline, saliva, or whatever foreign substance he could sneak past the umpires. Unlike the roided-up muscle heads of this era, Perry’s spitball was a wholesome way to break the rules. Heck, if it was good enough for Bugs Bunny, it’s good enough for baseball, right?

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Hall of Fame, Media, MLB, Yankees | 3 Comments »

Hall of Fame or Shame? Breaking Down the 2013 Cooperstown Vote

January 9, 2013 by William Juliano

The Hall of Fame podium will be empty this year. (Photo: Getty Images)

The Hall of Fame podium will be empty this year. (Photo: Getty Images)

For the first time since 1996 and eighth time in history, the Hall of Fame podium will be empty this July. Despite many strong candidates for enshrinement, several controversial issues conspired to destroy consensus. However, just because no one was elected by the BBWAA, doesn’t mean some of the rejected candidates won’t be rewarded in the future. Below is a breakdown of the more notable results presented in context of historical trends since 1967, when the current voting process was instituted.

Craig Biggio – 68.2% (1st)

Although no one was elected to the Hall of Fame this year, Craig Biggio is all but ensured of eventually getting in. At 68.2%, Biggio recorded the second highest rate among players not inducted in their first year on the ballot (behind only Roberto Alomar’s 73.7% in 2010). The only question is will the former Astros’ great join next year’s class or have to wait until 2015? Since 1967, the 15 players who received over 50% in their first year on the ballot experienced an unweighted average increase of 9.2% in their next attempt. That would be more than enough to get Biggio on the podium next July. However, if Biggio follows the track of admitted cheater Gaylord Perry, whose year-two bump was only 4.1%, he’ll have to wait at least one year longer.

Second Year Bumps, Since 1967
1st ballot

Note: Includes players who debuted on the ballot with at least 50%, but fell short of election. Shaded players were enshrined in their second year.

Jack Morris – 67.7% (14th)

If Jack Morris, the most controversial non-PED candidate, was going to earn his plaque, this was probably the year. However, the durable right hander wasn’t able to close the gap. With only 1% more support, Morris’ momentum came to a screeching a halt, leaving him more than 7% short of the finish line. If Morris makes up that ground, he’d become only the second player to get in on his final ballot, joining Jim Rice, who made the leap in 2009. However, the former Red Sox slugger was building off a 72.2% rate in year 14. Also, Rice had the benefit of a relatively weak first-time class. Aside from Rickey Henderson, who was elected, the nine other first timers all received less than 5% of the vote. In contrast, Morris will face an even more crowded ballot in his final season, as the glut of holdovers joins newcomers like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, and Mike Mussina. Considering Morris’ borderline candidacy, it will be very difficult for him to elbow his way onto many additional ballots, not to mention avoid falling off some.

Mike Piazza – 57.8% (1st) and Jeff Bagwell – 59.6% (3rd)

If not for suspicions about performance enhancing drugs, Mike Piazza’s first year vote total would make him a future lock. Of course, if not for PEDs, he’d likely be a first time inductee. For that reason, it’s hard to extrapolate his future vote totals. In his favor, there is no evidence linking Piazza to steroids, which should provide the catcher with more wiggle room. Perhaps the best comp for Piazza is Jeff Bagwell, who has also been the victim of unsubstantiated rumors. After debuting at only 41.7%, the former first baseman jumped up 13.3%, an increase that would bring Piazza right to the doorstep. So, barring any more revelations or rumors, Piazza seems to be in good shape. Bagwell, however, probably faces a much longer climb.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Hall of Fame, MLB, Yankees | 5 Comments »

Character Counts but Hall of Fame Has No Moral Majority

January 8, 2013 by William Juliano

Character counts. That’s the message baseball writers have sent to Hall of Fame candidates who are even vaguely linked to performance enhancing drugs. As a result, this year’s vote will likely see the rejection of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire, among others, a litany of All Stars who, during their playing days, all seemed destined to be first ballot inductees.

Have baseball writers overstepped their bounds by invoking the character clause to keep steroid users out of the Hall of Fame? Let’s see what history has to say about the subject. According to rule five of the BBWAA voting guidelines, which are listed on the Hall of Fame website, “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” The Hall of Fame also states the “character, integrity and sportsmanship” clause was added in 1945. However, that doesn’t mean character wasn’t taken into consideration beforehand. In fact, it appears as if morality impacted the very first election held in 1936.

Not only were there no unanimous selections in the first Hall of Fame class, but some took four years to get elected.

Not only were there no unanimous selections in the first Hall of Fame class, but some took four years to get elected.

The Hall of Fame was conceived in 1935 as the centerpiece of baseball’s upcoming centennial celebration in 1939. In addition to being a museum, the institution also set out to bestow an honor recognizing lifetime achievement in the game. Heading into the first election, which was held in 1936, 15 inaugural inductees were expected (five from before 1900 and 10 from the turn-of-the-century to the present day), but reaching the required three-quarters majority proved more difficult than anticipated. None of the pre-1900 candidates were elected by a special committee, while the baseball writers, who were tasked with judging the modern era, only approved five.

The omission of players like Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker and Cy Young was surprising enough, but what really raised eyebrows were the voters who did not cast a ballot for Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb. According to the AP, when ballots without the names of Ruth and Cobb were revealed, the vote count came to an immediate halt and a spirited discussion ensued. The incredible omissions “amazed” the assembled observers, who were confounded by the snubs. By the time the tally was concluded, four voters had left Cobb off the ballot, while 11 had done the same to Ruth.

It may be that these voters disapproved of Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth for some of their deliberate or care free antics in the past. The Babe was no model of deportment…and the fiery Cobb made plenty of enemies during his baseball career.” – John Kiernan, New York Times, February 4, 1936.

What made the exclusion of Ruth and Cobb truly remarkable is each voter had to list 10 names on his ballot. To omit them entirely was to suggest they didn’t even rank within the top-10 of their own generation. The mere thought was blasphemous, just as much then as it is now. Writing in the New York Times, John Kiernan took a moment from scratching his head to point a finger at what he believed was the culprit. According to the journalist, who recounted the two legends’ many indiscretions, “Ruth and Cobb may have failed in the character test”.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Hall of Fame, MLB | Tagged | 4 Comments »

Fixing the Hall of Fame Election Process: Competence over Convenience

January 7, 2013 by William Juliano

The Baseball Hall of Fame has become the third rail of American sports talk. The growing influence of sabermetrics and ethical hand wringing over performance enhancing drugs are mostly to thank for that. Although debate over Cooperstown candidates has always been spirited, these issues have turned the discussion into snarky shouting matches between warring factions.

Writers have long been stewards of baseball history, but do they deserve exclusive domain?

Writers have long been stewards of baseball history, but do they deserve exclusive domain?

As Ken Rosenthal recently noted, the intensity of this debate isn’t necessarily a bad thing. On the contrary, the passion aroused is indicative of just how important baseball is to the American public. Even though some other sports have surpassed the national pastime in terms of TV ratings, baseball remains the country’s most sacred game. That’s why it is held to a higher standard, and so much scrutiny is paid to its history, much of which is embodied by the Hall of Fame.

The backlash against the baseball writers who vote for the Hall of Fame is understandable. After all, their votes are the only ones that count. However, it is a little surprising that much of the criticism leveled against the electorate have come from within the ranks of the BBWAA. Granted, baseball writers have never been shy about criticizing each other, but lately, the organization’s generation gap has been widening.

In response to the increasing vitriolic level of discourse, some members of the BBWAA have decided to wash their hands of the Hall of Fame vote. Still others have argued that baseball writers should have their exclusivity in the matter revoked altogether.  Needless to say, this latter proposal has won the support of those who are currently disenfranchised. In fact, an internet petition calling upon the Hall of Fame to revamp its electoral process is currently making the rounds. How will the Hall of Fame react to the outcry? There haven’t been substantive changes to the initial ballot process in nearly 50 years, so the chances of an overhaul seem slim. However, if the induction ceremony features an empty podium this summer, the Hall’s board of directors just might take notice.

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