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Jack Morris hasn’t thrown a pitch in almost 20 years, but his Hall of Fame candidacy has made him one of the most controversial figures in the game. Although the right hander falls below the bar set by the Cooperstown elite, both sides of this bitter debate should be able to agree that Morris provided many memorable moments during his 18-year career. So, in an effort at détente, the Captain’s Blog video archive presents the following clip excerpted from Morris’ no-hitter against the Chicago White Sox on April 7, 1984.

 

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Jack Morris hasn't pitched in over 20 years, but the debate over his Hall of Fame candidacy has made him one of the game's the most controversial figures. (Photo: Star Tribune)

Jack Morris hasn’t pitched in over 20 years, but the debate over his Hall of Fame candidacy has made him one of the game’s most controversial figures. (Photo: Star Tribune)

Jack Morris’ Hall of Fame candidacy has become a lighting rod. Thanks to this spirited debate, more has been written about him over the past few years than during his entire 18-year pitching career.  At least that’s the way it seems…on the surface. However, when you dig deep into the arguments both for and against his enshrinement, it turns out they aren’t about Jack Morris at all.

The debate over Morris is really a referendum on sabermetrics. When old school scribes trumpet the right hander as the “winningest pitcher in the 1980s”, the statheads derisively note his cumulative WAR ranks behind Chuck Finley. The pro-Morris camp likes to hark back to his magical game seven in the 1991 World Series, but the right hander’s detractors quickly point out that, aside from this performance, his post season ERA is a pedestrian 4.26. The anecdotal retorts lobbed from both sides of the great statistical divide are endless. It’s not exactly “Tastes Great, Less Filling”, but the level of discourse is close.

The relative importance of new statistics clearly plays a role in the Morris debate, but that’s not the only undercurrent. More than just wrangling over how to define performance, the two sides appear to be fighting for mindshare. For over a century, the mainstream print media, which comprise the BBWAA membership, enjoyed almost exclusive sway over how baseball fans (and even participants) perceived the game and its players. More recently, however, those sympathetic to sabremetricians (an important distinction because those who use the new metrics now have a much louder voice than the number crunchers who actually devise them) have gradually usurped that authority by wielding complex mathematical equations as a weapon. In response, the traditionalists have retrenched, doubling down on the importance of access and narrative as a way to combat those threatening not only their influence, but also their jobs.

Jack Morris is really nothing more than a red herring in this debate. Each side has conveniently exploited elements of his Hall of Fame candidacy to exaggerate their claims about the other, while ignoring the inconsistencies inherent in their own arguments. After all, if Morris’ historic post season performance and renowned tenacity are so obviously Hall of Fame material, why did the right hander languish on the ballot for the first decade of his eligibility? Similarly, if Morris’ election to Cooperstown was truly worthy of the derision expressed by those who oppose him, how come no one laughs at the inclusion of Jim Palmer?

Jim Palmer vs. Jack Morris
MorrisvPlamer

Source: fangrpaghs.com

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The Yankees’ lineup looks a little like Swiss cheese, but the team has some depth in its starting rotation. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners have more than their fair share of DH types, but are reportedly in the market for a starting pitcher. It’s time to play let’s make a deal.

Is it time for Brian Cashman to get this man on the phone?

Is it time for Brian Cashman to get this man on the phone?

The Mariners find themselves a little thin in the rotation because the team traded lefty starter Jason Vargas to the Angels for DH/1B Kendrys Morales. During his four seasons in Seattle, Vargas’ performance wasn’t particularly impressive, but the 29-year old did establish himself as a solid, back-of-the-rotation innings eater, which, in this era of inflated salaries for pitchers, certainly has value. So, in order to fill that void, Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik has reportedly been kicking the tires on free agents Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders, but hasn’t been enamored with the asking price.

While searching for a starter, Seattle is also pursuing another offensive player, with recent reports suggesting the team is strongly interested in Justin Upton. After years of having one of the most futile offenses in the game, the Mariners have apparently decided to distill their Opening Day lineup from an acquired mash of available hitters, which, in addition to Morales, has so far included the likes of Jason Bay, Mike Jacobs, and Raul Ibanez. With Jesus Montero, Casper Wells, and Justin Smoak also on the roster, Eric Wedge will have his hands full making out a daily lineup, regardless of whether Zduriencik dumps another hitter in his lap.

Across the country in the Bronx, the Yankees have the opposite problem. What has been the most potent offense in baseball for the last decade now looks vulnerable. The Bronx Bombers have experienced a massive power drain this offseason, and currently have unfilled holes at catcher, backup infielder, and DH, while also lacking an outfielder who hits from the right side. Whereas the team’s focus in past winters has been “pitching, pitching, and more pitching”, this year, offense has been the priority. However, aside from the signing of Kevin Youkilis, GM Brian Cashman has come up empty.

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2012 was the year of the strikeout. Last season, more hitters slumped back to the dugout than at any point in the modern era, continuing a recent trend that has seen strikeout rates rise significantly over the past few years.

The rate of strikeouts has ebbed and flowed over baseball’s long history, usually reversing course after a significant rule change. Whether it was lowering the mound, increasing the distance from home plate, outlawing spitballs, or implementing comprehensive drug testing, each inflection point in the league-wide strikeout rate can usually be traced back to a series of events. However, as was recently noted in a post at High Heat Stats, there doesn’t seem to be a genesis for the precipitous decline in strikeouts that occurred in 1917 and 1918.

Historical Strikeouts Rates (Offense), Since 1913

MLBKPA

Source: fangraphs.com

Historical Strikeouts Rates (Pitching), Since 1901

MLB_K9

Source: fangraphs.com

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Update: Please click here for comments from Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson regarding consideration of Japanese League statistics in evaluating a player’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

Hideki Matsui will best be remembered for his seven years in pinstripes, but his last three seasons bouncing around the American League could turn out to be among the most important of his career. By prolonging his time in uniform, Matsui, who is reportedly set to announce his retirement, reached the milestone of 10 seasons in the major leagues. As a result, the former Japanese slugger will be eligible for Hall of Fame consideration in five years, assuming he makes good on his intention to walk away from the game. However, we don’t have to wait that long to consider his candidacy.

Should Hall of Famer voters toss away Matsui's 10 seasons in Japan? (Photo:

Should Hall of Fame voters toss away Matsui’s 10 seasons in Japan? (Photo:

Is Hideki Matsui a Hall of Famer? Although the left handed outfielder/DH ranks surprisingly high on the Yankees all-time list as a hitter (21st in OPS+ and 22nd in wOBA among those with at least 3,000 plate appearances), his overall numbers still pale in comparison to the Hall of Fame standard. Even including his postseason heroics and prominence on several great Yankee teams, Matsui still seems to fall short in terms of overall contribution while playing in the majors. But, what about the 10 seasons he spent in Japan?

Before joining the Yankees, Matsui belted 332 homers and drove in 889 runs while playing for the Yomiuri Giants. When combined with his output in the major leagues, Matsui’s 507 homers and 1,649 RBIs take on historic proportions. Of course, you can’t simply translate Matsui’s performance at face value. However, even if you allow for a discount, at the very least, Matsui’s combined resume merits serious consideration for election to the Hall of Fame.

Top-10 Postseason Performers, Ranked by OPS

Player G PA HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
Carlos Beltran 34 151 14 25 0.363 0.470 0.782 1.252
Babe Ruth 41 167 15 33 0.326 0.467 0.744 1.211
Lou Gehrig 34 150 10 35 0.361 0.477 0.731 1.208
Albert Pujols 74 321 18 52 0.330 0.439 0.607 1.046
George Brett 43 184 10 23 0.337 0.397 0.627 1.023
Jayson Werth 49 206 14 27 0.264 0.374 0.586 0.960
Lance Berkman 52 224 9 41 0.317 0.417 0.532 0.949
Manny Ramirez 111 493 29 78 0.285 0.394 0.544 0.937
Barry Bonds 48 208 9 24 0.245 0.433 0.503 0.936
Hideki Matsui 56 235 10 39 0.312 0.391 0.541 0.933

Note: Minimum 150 plate appearances
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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scrooge

Men’s courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead. But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change.Ebenezer Scrooge, from Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol

Nick Swisher’s departure from the Yankees had become a forgone conclusion, but the timing just before Christmas made the news like a lump coal left in the stocking of the team’s fan base. With Hal Steinbrenner playing the role of Scrooge this winter, Yankee fans haven’t had much to cheer about during the off season, and, unless the franchise’s infamous ghosts are inspired to pay the new Boss a visit, the days before Spring Training are likely to remain empty. Bah Humbug!

Yankees’ Productive Free Agent Departures (Hitters)

Season before FA   Post Yankee Career
Player Year Age PA OPS+   Years PA OPS+
Jason Giambi 2008 37 565 128 2009-2012 846 100
Nick Swisher 2012 31 624 126  2013-  ?  ?
Hideki Matsui 2009 35 528 123 2010-2012 1246 102
Reggie Jackson 1981 35 382 120 1982-1987 3095 111
Claudell Washington 1988 33 485 120 1989-1990 570 91
Bobby Abreu 2008 34 684 120 2009-2012 2176 112
Graig Nettles 1983 38 519 119 1984-1988 1685 97
Mike Stanley 1995 32 470 118 1996-2000 2324 117
Johnny Damon 2009 35 626 118 2010-2012 1484 102
Tino Martinez 2001 33 635 114 2002-2005 2009 108

Note: Includes free agents who left Yankees after having a season with an OPS+ of at least 110 in 400-plus plate appearances, with the exception of those who played in the strike-shortened season of 1981.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Ghost of Yankees’ Past

By allowing Swisher to take his switching hitting bat to Cleveland, the Yankees said good bye to arguably the most productive free agent to leave the Bronx. Since the start of the free agency era, only 11 players who posted an OPS+ of 110 or higher in at least 400 plate appearances have departed the team. However, almost half of those shown the door have come within the past five seasons. In 2008, the Yankees bid adieu to Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, and then in 2009, did the same to the World Series hero tandem of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. Clearly, sentimentality has not been a driving force behind the team’s decision making.

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(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Las Vegas has installed Toronto as the early favorite to win the World Series, but in order for the Blue Jays to simply win the A.L. East, the team will need to undergo a historic improvement. Meanwhile, in the Bronx, there has been uncharacteristic pessimism. In fact, some have suggested that the Yankees could be battling to stay over .500, much less repeat as division champions. In order for that dire prediction to come true, the Bronx Bombers would have to suffer a 15-win drop off from last year’s total, resulting in a winning percentage decline of 0.093. Are the Yankees’ capable of such a slide? The following historical snapshot really can’t answer that question, but it does present an interesting perspective from which to consider the possibility.

Yankees’ Yearly Winning Percentage, 1901-2012
YanksWinPct

Source: Baseball-reference.com

It’s too early to make meaningful projections for 2013, but chances are the Yankees will remain a top contender for the division crown. However, if the team does struggle to maintain a winning record, it won’t be the first time it experienced such a significant decline. In 10 others season, most recently in 1999 (albeit off 1998’s historic rate), the Yankees saw their winning percentage drop by at least 9.3 points, including four occasions after finishing in first the season before.

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