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Cardinals, Tigers World Series Rematch a Contest of Mediocrity?

October 22, 2012 by William Juliano

So far, baseball has enjoyed a great postseason. With the exception of the Yankees’ washout in the ALCS, every other series has gone the distance, meaning in the span of about two weeks, seven sudden death games will have been played just to get to the World Series. Throw in the exciting conclusions to both the A.L. East and West division races, and October has certainly been a month to remember.  Bud Selig couldn’t have drawn it up any better.

World Series with the Lowest Combined Win Total, Since 1962*

*In pre-division era (before 162 game schedule), the 1926 (180 combined wins) and 1959 World Series (184 combined wins) would also make the list. The strike-shortened 1981 season and WWI-shortened 1918 season are also excluded.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Unfortunately, there has been a trade-off for all the drama.  If the Tigers and Cardinals meet in the World Series, it will mark the first time baseball’s championship will be contested by two teams that failed to win at least 90 games (not including the strike-shortened 1981 season and WWI-shortened 1918 season). The combined total of 176 victories would also match the 1973 World Series for the lowest among World Series combatants. That year, the New York Mets, who only had 82 wins, squeaked by Cincinnati’s burgeoning Big Red Machine to face the Oakland Athletics, who won 94 games.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Post Season, World Series | 1 Comment »

Will Steinbrenner Open Wallet for Holiday Spending Spree, or Do Yankees Face Nuclear Winter?

October 19, 2012 by William Juliano

In the wake of the Yankees’ ALCS washout, the Bronx Bombers have been treated like a complete failure. During last night’s NLCS telecast on FOX, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver even compared the end of the Yankees’ 2012 season to the Boston Red Sox’ epic collapse in 2011. Judging by the furor, you’d never guess the Yankees had the best record in the American League.

Hopefully, Brian Cashman’s cell phone plan has unlimited minutes. (Photo: Getty Images)

The Yankees had a historically poor offensive postseason. There’s no way around that fact. However, that doesn’t mean the team should overreact. By the same token, it would be naïve to attribute the offense’s poor showing in October to bad luck and poor timing. Even though the Bronx Bombers ranked among the A.L. leaders in most offensive categories, the lineup was not without its flaws, many of which were exposed during the postseason. So, as Brian Cashman looks back at his team, chances are he’ll come to the conclusion that the status quo can not be maintained.

Even if the Yankees won the World Series, the team’s extensive list of free agents all but ensured significant turnover. Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, Hiroki Kuroda, Raul Ibanez, and Rafael Soriano (who seems certain to exercise his opt out clause) are all meaningful contributors who are likely to either test the market or seek a raise, which could cloud their future in the Bronx. Also complicating matters are the injuries to Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Neither player is guaranteed to start the season on time, and, considering their ages, a full recovery is impossible to predict. Throw in Andy Pettitte’s annual retirement watch, Curtis Granderson’s $15 million team option, the potential for trade talks involving Alex Rodriguez, and Cashman’s scary insistence that CC Sabathia have his left elbow examined, and, right now, very little seems certain about next year.

Last winter, Brian Cashman preached “pitching, pitching, and more pitching”, but this time around, he would probably sign up to enter 2013 with the exact same pitching staff as last season. Even without Rivera and Michael Pineda, the Yankees had a rotation and bullpen capable of success in both the regular and post season, so there really isn’t a need to make major changes. Of course, keeping everyone in the fold will likely cost more money. The most likely casualty figures to be Soriano, who could command a long-term lucrative contract coming off an outstanding season as a closer. Would the Yankees be willing to sign him to another big money contract? If not, team will enter next season with David Robertson as the only established and healthy member of the bullpen. Continue Reading »

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, Hot Stove, MLB, Yankees | 7 Comments »

Dump Arod? If So, Yankees Better Have Back-Up Plan

October 18, 2012 by William Juliano

First he was pinch hit for, then he was benched, and now, apparently, Alex Rodriguez is set to become the first player traded from a playoff team in the middle of a postseason series. OK, fine, maybe that last part is a bit of an exaggeration, but even though the Bronx Bombers are still clinging to their postseason life, so many seem eager to throw dirt on Arod’s Yankee career.

The Yankees have taken the bat out of Arod’s hands. Will they soon try to take the pinstripes off his back?

At this point, it doesn’t really matter why Arod is being singled out from a lineup that includes six Yankees with a postseason OPS below .560. Whether Joe Girardi really believes Rodriguez’ struggles against right handers have reached the point of no return, or off-field behavior has contributed to his benching, the Yankees have ensured themselves of an offseason that will be even more challenging than stringing together a few hits in October.

The easy solution proposed by many is for the Yankees to eat most of Arod’s contract and ship him off to another team. In others words, dump him. Of course, under that scenario, no one ever mentions who would then play third base. Even though Rodriguez’ .342 wOBA in 2012 was a somewhat of a disappointment, it still dwarfed the .314 rate compiled at the position by the entire American League. Also, since 2010, the beginning of what most refer to as his precipitous decline, Rodriguez has compiled a fWAR of 10.2, which ranks fourth in the A.L. over that span. Continue Reading »

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Bronx Zoo Returns; Yanks Need Alternate Ending to Postseason Soap Opera

October 17, 2012 by William Juliano

Is the Bronx Zoo back? Before last night’s pivotal game three, Joe Girardi (perhaps with an assist from Brian Cashman?) decided to bench Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher, two players who have been stalwarts for him throughout his tenure as Yankee manager. The moves, which were controversial before the game, have become even more so following another loss in which the team could barely scratch out a run.

Arod has been reduced to a spectator for much of the 2012 postseason. (Photo: Daily News)

With the Yankees now facing certain elimination after going down 3 games to 0 in the ALCS, at least some attention now shifts to whether or not the Yankees’ offensive woes will have ramifications beyond October.  Whether or not there was a sound basis for his decision, Girardi’s abandonment of two established veterans could have a ripple effect that lasts until next year. Just ask the Red Sox what clubhouse discontent at the end of one season can mean for the next. The brooms will be out in Detroit, but the Yankees won’t be able to use them to sweep the lingering controversy under the rug.

Nick Swisher’s days in pinstripes were probably numbered anyway. With the outfielder approaching free agency, the newly cost conscious Yankees were unlikely to meet his reported demands. The fact that he turned in his fourth consecutive horrendous postseason was icing on the cake. If there would have been any fan backlash over letting a popular player go, Swisher’s October disappearing act all but ensured he’ll leave town quietly. For that reason, Girardi’s handling of the outfielder has no long-term consequence. That same can’t be said for his treatment of Alex Rodriguez.

By benching Arod twice, pinch hitting for him on multiple occasions, and, perhaps worse, not using him despite potential favorable match-ups, Girardi has made the future Hall of Famer the team’s scapegoat. Is that fair? At this point, it doesn’t really matter. Although both men have said all the right things, it’s hard not to imagine a growing rift between them. And, if one exists, it will be hard to prevent it from spreading throughout the clubhouse. Continue Reading »

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, MLB, Post Season, Yankees | 5 Comments »

Home Field Disadvantage: Fans Become the Focus as Yankees Limp to Detroit

October 15, 2012 by William Juliano

What’s become of the Yankees’ Home Field Advantage?

The Yankees reward for having the best record in the American League was home field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, what was once a blessing, seems to have turned into a curse. With the team mired in an epic postseason slump, the (less than capacity) crowds at Yankee Stadium have alternated between passionless and merciless, creating the same hostile environment for the home team that visitors to the Bronx once had to endure.

Since the opening of the new Yankee Stadium, the crowds have not had the same energy. Anyone who has spent a considerable amount of time in both venues can attest to that. With approximately 8,000 fewer seats positioned much further away from the field, the new Stadium simply can’t match the structural and acoustic qualities that made the old place feel like a cauldron of sound. However, that’s not the only reason the new place lacks the same vibe as the old one.

The Yankees’ pricing strategy with the new Yankee Stadium makes perfect economic sense. By gouging corporate clients, the team can maximize revenue from a more inelastic customer base. Put more simply, selling one ticket for $500 is the same as selling five for $100, so, from an economic standpoint, it doesn’t really matter whether or not Yankee Stadium is filled to capacity. Of course, empty seats don’t make noise.

Unfortunately, what works financially hasn’t been as aesthetically pleasing. Not only has Yankee Stadium regularly featured empty seats scattered all over the premium lower level sections, but the clientele seems more interested in where they are than whom they are watching. In addition to pricing out a more passionate cross-section of their fan base (or, at least, moving them further away from the field), the added amenities of the new ballpark have become the drawing card. So, instead of rooting for the home team, some fans have opted to cheer from the comfort of a sit down restaurant while snacking on filet mignon and sipping chardonnay. Continue Reading »

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Post Season, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | 7 Comments »

Yankees Face ALCS Rotation Dilemma

October 13, 2012 by William Juliano

Note: Since publication, it was announced that Kuroda will pitch in game 2 on short rest followed by Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia in games three and four, respectively. Presumably, Sabathia would come back on short rest in game 7, if needed.

 

Because of the condensed playoff schedule, the Yankees are facing the possibility of having to use five starters in the ALCS. Unless Girardi is willing to use both CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda on three-days rest, his creativity will be tested as he tries to cobble together a rotation that will send the Yankees to their 41st American League pennant.

Andy Pettitte is the only pitcher whose position in the rotation is locked in for the series. As the game one starter, the veteran lefty will be available for game 5 on full rest. However, every other rotation spot is in flux. It seems certain that Sabathia will go on short rest in one game, so the linchpin will be whether Kuroda can do the same. Below are the main scenarios the Yankees will likely consider.

Kuroda and Sabathia on Three-Days Rest

Option 1 Option 2
Game Pitcher Rest Game Pitcher Rest
1 Pettitte 4 days 1 Pettitte 4 days
2 Kuroda 3 days 2 Phelps
3 Sabathia 3 days 3 Kuroda 4 days
4 Hughes 6 days 4 Sabathia 4 days
5 Pettitte 4 days 5 Pettitte 4 days
6 Kuroda 4 days 6 Kuroda 3 days
7 Sabathia 4 days 7 Sabathia 3 days

Option 1: In order for the Yankees to reset their rotation, they would need Kuroda and Sabathia to take the ball on three-days rest. If each pitcher toed the rubber in games 2 and 3, it would position them to come back fully rested in the last two games of the series, if needed. In addition, that alignment would hand the ball to Phil Hughes in game 4, enabling Girardi to manage his bullpen unencumbered by concerns about the rotation.

Option 2: Considering each pitcher’s workload in the ALDS, the Yankees could decide to pitch Kuroda and Sabathia on full rest earlier in the series instead of later. This option would create an opening in game 2, which would make David Phelps the likely starter and Hughes the backup plan should Kuroda or Sabathia struggle in their first outing.

The benefit to option 1 is it allows Kuroda to make both starts at Yankee Stadium, where he has been much more effective this season. In addition, it also matches Sabathia up against Verlander. However, if either or both starters struggle on short rest, it could place the Yankees in an early hole.

Option 2 allows Kuroda and Sabathia to get their footing in the ALCS on full rest, while also allowing Girardi to manage their workload with a nod toward a potential return on short rest at the end of the series. However, it limits Kuroda to one start at home and leaves Sabathia at a disadvantage in a sudden death showdown with Verlander. In addition, if Phelps can not provide length in game 2, it would tax the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Post Season, Yankees | Tagged , | Leave a Comment »

Joe Must Know Arod Belongs in Game 1 Lineup

October 13, 2012 by William Juliano

Joe Girardi defended his decision to sit Alex Rodriguez in game 5 of the ALDS by citing the three-time MVP’s struggles against right handers. The explanation was a rational reason for making an extraordinary decision. Despite handling pitchers throwing from the same side for most of his career, Arod exhibited a significant platoon split in 2012, and his at bats against righties in the ALDS implied a hitter who was overmatched (0-12 with nine strikeouts). However, was that really the motivating factor that led Girardi to bench him?

Does Joe Girardi still have Arod’s back? (Photo: AP)

In the bottom of the sixth inning, with two outs and runners on first and second, Buck Showalter brought in lefty Troy Patton to face Raul Ibanez. During the regular season, Patton held lefties to a .554 OPS, while Ibanez only managed a rate of .492 against southpaws. The matchup screamed for a right handed pinch hitter. And, with Arod on the bench, the Yankees had a batter who not only posted the AL’s 10th best wOBA against lefties during the regular season, but also reached base in six of eight plate appearances against them in the series. It seemed like an obvious call, but Girardi left Ibanez in the game anyway. By doing so, his actions belied his words.

It doesn’t really matter why Girardi sat Arod in the ALDS. The Yankees won the game and will now host the Tigers in the ALCS. Of course, that doesn’t make the situation go away. Detroit’s rotation features four right handed pitchers, so if splits really are a big concern, the Yankee skipper may feel compelled to bench his Hall of Fame third baseman for most of the upcoming series, especially if he also believes the slugger’s confidence has been damaged beyond repair. However, Girardi would be wise to realize there really is no choice to be made. Rodriguez deserves a chance to redeem himself, and his first opportunity has to come in game one.

It doesn’t matter that the Tigers have all right handed starters. Girardi can not simply pull the plug on a player of Arod’s stature. The benefit of inserting Eric Chavez into the ninth slot isn’t great enough to warrant the risk of forfeiting a potential breakout from Arod, nor does it justify the long-term damage that could be done to Girardi’s relationship with a player he’ll have to manage for five more seasons. Although controversial, to this point, Girardi’s handling of Arod has been defensible. However, if Rodriguez is standing on the baseline before the starting line-up has been announced to the crowd, that will no longer be the case.

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Post Season, Yankees | Tagged | 5 Comments »

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