Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Rebuilding After an Epic Baseball Collapse

September 29, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The Red Sox still haven’t recovered from their collapse at the end of the last season. (Photo: Boston Globe)

After the Braves clinched a playoff spot, New York Times’ columnist Tyler Kepner marked the occasion by commenting about how “teams almost never recover from an epic collapse” like the one Atlanta experienced last season. After all, one need only look at the ruins in Boston to see what can happen when everything comes tumbling down so suddenly.

While evaluating the Yankees’ flirtation with an epic collapse, I, like Kepner, also operated under the assumption that blowing a big lead and missing the playoffs would not only serve as a stigma, but also lead to a hangover. However, is that really the case? Do epic collapses almost always carry over to the next season? Or, do we only remember the ones that reverberate for seasons to come?

Epic Regular Season Collapses

Note: Ranked in order of teams with the highest playoff probability during a season in which they did not make the playoffs. For an explanation of how average (Avg POFF) and peak playoff probability (POFF) is calculated, click here.
Source: coolstandings.com

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Mets, MLB, Post Season, Red Sox, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Unfit To Be Tied: Yankees Lacking Ninth Inning Magic

September 28, 2012 by William Juliano

When Mariano Rivera went down with a season ending injury, most people expected the Yankees to struggle in the ninth inning. They were right. However, the team’s hardship has had nothing to do with closing out games. Rafael Soriano has handled that job just fine. Instead, the problem has been the offense’s inability to overcome a late inning deficit.

The Yankees are currently 0-56 when trailing at the beginning of the ninth inning. Unless the Bronx Bombers are able to mount a comeback in one of the last six games, it will mark the first time since 1967 that the team has failed to pull out at least one game in the ninth inning. However, the Yankees failure to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat is not for lack of trying. Or, so it has seemed.

Although the Yankees have never actually won a game in the ninth inning, most fans would swear the team has had more than its fair share of close calls. However, despite the impression that the Yankees have been a tease, the ballclub has not had a disproportionate number of opportunities with the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning.

2012 Tying Run Opportunities, MLB

Source: baseball-reference.com

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Yankees Facing Choice Between Swisher and Granderson

September 26, 2012 by William Juliano

Is there enough room for both Granderson and Swisher in the 2013 Yankees’ outfield?

Is this September the swan song of Nick Swisher’s Yankee career? An impending free agent, Swisher is reportedly seeking a lucrative five-year deal, so, with the Yankees still intent on dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2014, the chances of him returning to the Bronx seem slim. Swisher has loved wearing the pinstripes, and the fans have elevated him to cult hero status, but when push comes to shove, money talks, which is why most people believe the switch hitter will walk.

Is a parting between the Yankees and Swisher really inevitable? Entering the season, the right fielder’s consistent production was almost a luxury for the vaunted Yankee offense. However, this year, some cracks have begun to emerge, one of which has been the significant regression of Curtis Granderson.

After Granderson’s MVP-caliber campaign in 2011, it almost became a given that the Yankees would seriously consider extending his contract beyond its 2013 expiration. However, this season hasn’t gone nearly as well. Not only has the center fielder hit a career-low .229, but, despite once again belting 40 homers, his run production and slugging are also down significantly. What’s more, Granderson has also been on a record setting strikeout pace, which has basically reduced the centerfielder to a “three true outcome” player (46.2% of his plate appearances have ended with a walk, home run, or strike out). Although that’s not necessarily a bad thing from an offensive standpoint, it does prevent Granderson from using his speed to provide additional value.

Three True Outcome Yankees, 1901-2012

Note: Minimum 500 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Hot Stove, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Tagged , | 1 Comment »

Does Type of First Pitch Strike Influence At Bat Results?

September 25, 2012 by William Juliano

During broadcasts on the YES Network, Ken Singleton will sometimes wax poetic whenever a batter takes a big swing and miss at the first pitch of his at bat. “One to get loose, two to produce,” the former Orioles’ All Star will rhyme, offering consolation to the slugger who came up empty.

A hitter having not one, but three strikes at his disposal is deeply engrained in both the factual and fictional components of baseball lore. From Ernest Thayer’s “Casey at the Bat”, to Babe Ruth’s called shot in the 1932 World Series, to Roy Hobb’s dramatic home run in The Natural, even when the count is in the pitcher’s favor, the hero is always bolstered by the knowledge that one strike can’t beat him.

Even though it’s three strikes and you’re out, statistics tell us that falling behind in the count diminishes a hitter’s chance at being successful. In 2012, for example, the average major leaguer currently has an OPS of .725, but when the count is 0-1, the subsequent rate drops over 100 points to .613. No wonder pitching coaches preach getting ahead in the count.

Hitter OPS After Specific Counts, 2012

Note: Includes all plate appearances after a particular count is reached. So, for example, events coming on 2-1, but after 0-1 and 1-1 would be counted in each split. Red bars indicate OPS rates that are above the overall league average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

It’s pretty clear that even just one strike can place a hitter at a disadvantage. However, does it matter how the strike results? Does taking the first strike mitigate some of the handicap, or harking back to Singleton’s poem, does a healthy cut, whether it yields a whiff or foul ball, pay a residual benefit?

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball | Leave a Comment »

Yankees Bench Coming Up Empty in the Pinch

September 24, 2012 by William Juliano

There’s probably nothing more satisfying to a manager than saving his best bat off the bench for just the right moment, and then having him come through according to plan. On Friday night, Athletics’ manager Bob Melvin got to experience that thrill when Brandon Moss’ game-tying home run off Rafael Soriano became only the sixth long ball by a pinch hitter to erase a deficit in the ninth inning or later.

Clutch Pinch Hit Home Runs in 2012
Note: Defined as pinch hit home runs that erased a deficit in the ninth inning or later.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Unfortunately for the Athletics, Moss’ home run did not lead to a victory, but it continued an impressive run of success by the team’s pinch hitters. In 96 plate appearances off the bench, Oakland batters have produced at combined rates of .288/.385/.488. The resultant OPS of .873 is not only the highest rate produced by any team’s pinch hitters, but it also dwarfs the MLB average of .654 and stands well above the cumulative .725 OPS turned in by all major league batters over the course of the season. To illustrate the point even better, every time Melvin has gone to the bench, it has been like bringing Joe Mauer to the plate.

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Yankees Can’t Shake Orioles; Race Shaping Up as Closest Ever

September 22, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The 2012 Yankees hope to be celebrating just like the 1951 team did after coming out on top in a tight pennant race.

It’s not what Yankee fans had in mind when the team took a 10-game lead in July, but this September has played host to one of the mostly contested division/pennant races in franchise history.  For 17 straight game dates, beginning on September 3, the Yankees and Orioles have been separated by no more than one game in the standings, a stretch equaled or surpassed on only 17 other separate occasions and almost unprecedented in the final month of the season.

Yankees’ Longest Streak of Dates within a Game of First, Since 1901

Note: Based on position at the end of game dates only (i.e., off days excluded).
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The last time the Yankees were involved in such a hotly contested September pennant race was 1951. For most historians of the game, that season registers as the year in which  Bobby Thomson’s “shot heard ‘round the world” helped the New York Giants win the pennant after overcoming a 13-game deficit to the Brooklyn Dodgers. However, across town in the American League, the Yankees were involved in a fierce battle with the Cleveland Indians.

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged | Leave a Comment »

Second Wild Card Has Dampened, Not Ignited Pennant Races

September 21, 2012 by William Juliano

Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig recently gave a state of the sport address during a Q&A session with reporters, and, not surprisingly, one of the main talking points was the excitement created by the expanded wild card playoff format. However, although the second wild card has positive attributes, such as placing a much greater emphasis on winning the division, it can not take credit for this year’s hotly contested pennant races. In fact, as things have unfolded, the additional playoff spot seems as if it has removed some suspense from September.

A.L. and N.L. Playoff Picture (Under Current Format)

A.L. and N.L. Playoff Picture (Under Prior Format)

Note: Standings as of 9/20/2012. Lead/deficit in the playoff column is the greater/lesser of the team’s position in its division or the wild card standings.

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball | Leave a Comment »

« Newer Posts - Older Posts »