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Lately, the baseball intelligentsia has been preoccupied by rosters. When the calendar turned to September, the usual, but growing round of articles decrying the practice of roster expansion became prevalent. Then, once that furor passed, attention turned to the roster rules governing the one-game play-in that will be contested by the two wild cards in each league. Considering the excitement taking place on the field, it seems a little mundane to focus on front office procedures, but it wouldn’t be a baseball season without some discontent.

September call ups are a baseball tradition that dates back over a century. The practice was devised as a way to navigate the delicate business arrangement that existed between the major leagues and what were then independent minor league teams. In order to avoid competing directly for talent, the two confederations agreed upon a limited major league roster that could be expanded once the minor league season came to an end. Even though minor league clubs are now affiliated with their major league counterparts, the tradition continues to this day. But, should it?

September roster expansion has led to many lineup cards that look like these.

The most popular criticism of September roster expansion is the degree to which it alters strategy in the final month. After making do with a limited bullpen and bench over the first five months of the season, the September call ups give managers carte blanche to play match-ups in the late innings. Not only does this lead to longer games, a topic about which baseball always seems to be very sensitive, but some also feel it gives certain teams an unfair advantage.

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The Baltimore Orioles may not win the A.L. East or even make the playoffs, but if the final two weeks of the season end in disappointment, there will be at least one small consolation for the franchise. Thanks to the Orioles’ 9-5 victory over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday, Baltimore has assured itself of a winning record for the first time since 1997. Also, by snapping its string of 14 consecutive losing seasons, the Orioles avoided tying the American League record of 15, which was first set by the Boston Red Sox from 1919 to 1933 (no wonder New England was consumed by the curse of the Bambino) and matched by the Philadelphia/Kansas City Athletics from 1953 to 1967.

Longest Consecutive Losing Seasons, by Franchise

Note: Blue bars represent NL teams; red bars represent AL teams.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

In order to snap their losing skid, the Orioles have relied on more than their fair share of good fortune. After all, with a run differential of -20, the Orioles’ expected winning percentage is only .483, or 0.076 below its actual rate, giving the team the third most favorable discrepancy in baseball history. How has Baltimore managed to defy expectations? At 27-8, the team also maintains the highest winning percentage in one-run games recorded since 1901. Finally, the cherry on top of the Orioles’ improbable season has been its 13-2 record in extra innings, which is tied for the 15th best mark in modern baseball history.

Top-10 Most Favorable and Adverse Pythagorean Discrepancies, Since 1901

Note: For an explanation of the Pythagorean formula, click here.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The Orioles have been flying high of late thanks to a spate of recent walk offs.

On Thursday afternoon, Manny Machado’s bloop single, which landed just under the outstretched glove of Matt Joyce, gave the Orioles a 3-2 walk-off victory in the 13th inning. After the winning run crossed the plate, the entire Baltimore team mobbed the 19-year old rookie, whose clutch hit allowed his team to hold onto a share of first place.

Later in that evening, the Twins also recorded a walk-off victory, beating the Royals 4-3 in 10 innings. Although the stakes weren’t nearly as high, the celebration following Denard Span’s game winning double was just as raucous. Judging by the horde of teammate who pummeled Span after his late game heroics, you’d have thought the Twins were also battling for first place. Instead, the victory allowed them to avoid taking over sole possession of the cellar.

Rate of Walk-Off Victories, Since 1973

Note: Compares home team victories in final plate appearance to all home games.
Source: baseball-reference.com

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The Tampa Rays come into Yankee Stadium licking their wounds after a three-game sweep in Baltimore, but they shouldn’t expect much sympathy from the Yankees. Although the Bronx Bombers won the last two games of their series against the Red Sox, the team is riding its first winning streak in just under a month. With the pennant race tightening and only 19 games to go, the sense of urgency around both teams has been heightened.

The Yankees are hoping Sabathia will be their ace in the hole versus Tampa. (Photo: Reuters)

Tonight’s match-up features a classic pitchers’ duel between David Price and CC Sabathia. Normally, each team would be extremely confident giving the ball to its ace lefty, but this time around, both pitchers have a question mark hovering above their head. For Price, it will not only be his first start since skipping a turn because of shoulder soreness, but also the second removed from one of the worst performances of his career. If Tampa is going to make the playoffs, they’ll need Price to be at his best, so tonight’s showdown in the Bronx is a vital test.

The Yankees also enter tonight’s game with concern about their ace lefty. Within the past three months, Sabathia has been forced to the disabled list on two occasions, including the first time for an arm injury. Adding to the worry have been Sabathia’s recent struggles, which, perhaps, have been the result of his diminished velocity. Although he hasn’t been terrible by any stretch, the lefty has posted a relatively high 4.43 ERA over his last three starts, and, more importantly, surrendered a lead in each outing. Had the Yankees’ offense been performing up to par, the left hander’s effort in each game might have been good enough for a victory. Instead, all three games ended up in the loss column.

Aside from the current streak, there has only been one other stretch during which Yankees have lost at least three consecutive games started by Sabathia. After getting off to a hot start in 2010, the left hander hit a rough patch in May, going 0-2 over four games that were lost by the Yankees. Because it was early in the season, and Sabathia hadn’t been on the disabled list prior, there wasn’t much reason to panic. This time around, the Yankees don’t have time for Sabathia to work through his struggles, nor the depth to deal with another injury. In other words, Joe Girardi needs his ace to start dealing.

Even when healthy and pitching at his best, Sabathia versus Price has not been a favorable matchup for the Yankees. In seven meetings between the two starters, Sabathia has gone 1-4 with a 4.40 ERA, while Price has turned the tables, going 4-1 with an ERA almost half that rate. In total, the Rays have won six of the seven matchups, so, if Sabathia isn’t on his game, chances are the Yankees won’t be either.

CC Sabathia vs. David Price

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even though the team hasn’t been dealt a great hand of the late, the Yankees still hold an Ace in Sabathia. Now, they need him to starting pitching like one. If Sabathia can bounce back over his final three or four starts, the Yankees have to like their chances to win the A.L. East. Otherwise, it might take a considerable amount of luck for the Yankees to win the division because it looks more and more like Buck’s Orioles aren’t bluffing. The stakes have been raised. May the best Ace win.

As the Yankees’ continue to slide, they inch closer to several infamous distinctions in franchise history. Not only is the 2012 team trying to avoid becoming the first to blow a double-digit lead, but even the modest three game bulge at the beginning of September would qualify as the largest ever surrendered in the final month. In addition, this year’s team is on the verge of becoming only the second Yankees’ club to finish out of first place (and first to miss the playoffs), despite spending at least 89 game dates in the top spot.

Yankees’ Winning Percentage by Month, Since 1901

Source: Baseball-reference.com

The best way for the Yankees to avoid making unwanted history is for the team to have a strong September. Historically, the Bronx Bombers have finished up the season playing .567 baseball in the final month, which is in line with the team’s all-time winning percentage. This year, however, the team has stumbled in the early part of the month, alternating wins and losses for a 4-5 record. Although the sample is very small, it’s worth noting that the Yankees have finished in first on only three occasions when the team played below .500 in September.

Yankees’ September/October Winning% in Playoff Years, Since 1901

Note: Color markers indicate seasons in which Yankees did not finish in first place.
Source: Baseball-referene.com

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The American League pennant race has reached the stretch, but there still isn’t much separation among the leaders. Eight teams are currently within four games of a playoff spot, and every division race is separated by three games or fewer. With only five seats available when the music stops, the final week of the season promises to be chaotic.

American League Combined Standings as of 9/11/12

Source: Baseball-reference.com

As recently as the middle of August, the Yankees were lapping the field, but a 15-15 record in the team’s last 30 games has allowed the rest of the contenders to narrow the gap. Now, not only has the Bronx Bombers’ lead in the A.L. East been narrowed to one, but its wild card cushion stands at only two games. As a result, the Yankees have been forced to expand their scoreboard watching beyond division revivals. However, with over half of the eight contenders’ remaining games involving a head-to-head match-up with another playoff combatant, choosing sides in each game has become a difficult task.

The Yankees would prefer to not worry about the wild card standings, but in order to avoid that concern, they’ll have to start playing much better. Luckily for the Bronx Bombers, their schedule seems set up to cooperate. Over the final three weeks of the season, the team will face opponents with a combined winning percentage of .474 (based on home and road records), which is on par with the White Sox and Tigers, but much lower than all of the other contenders. The Yankees will also play only six games against teams vying for the postseason (three versus the Rays and Athletics), all of which will take place in the Bronx.

Strength of Schedule for A.L. Playoff Contenders

Note: Opponent winning percentage based on weighted home/road records.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Contents Under Pressure. The Orioles must not have heeded the warning because, after a prolonged slump, the Yankees’ offense finally exploded. During the four-game split in Baltimore, the Bronx Bombers scored 31 runs, more than doubling the paltry 3.5 runs averaged over the last three week’s worth of games.

Appropriately, the cherry on top of the offensive outburst occurred on Sunday, when the Yankees scored 13 runs, their second highest total of the season. The lopsided win also represented the team’s first double-digit margin of victory this season, allowing this year’s club to avoid joining the small list of Yankee teams that went an entire season without beating the opposition by 10 or more runs. In only eight seasons since 1901 has the team failed to record a double-digit margin of victory, the most recent being 1991.

Yankees’ Double-Digit Margins of Victory, Since 1901

Source: Baseball-reference.com

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