The Captain's Blog

Yankees Need Mark Teixeira Now and in the Future

September 8, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The Yankees are eager to welcome Mark Teixeira back to the lineup. (Photo: USPresswire)

Mark Teixeira’s expected return to the Yankees’ lineup was delayed another day when the first baseman’s injured calf caused him to miss the second game of the team’s crucial first place showdown against the Orioles. Although the offense didn’t suffer from his absence last night, if the Bronx Bombers want to play in October, they’ll need the switch hitter back in the lineup sooner than later.

Not only is Teixeira extremely important to the Yankees’ pennant drive, but he also figures to play a key roll in the team’s performance over the next several years. After all, aside from Alex Rodriguez, the first baseman is the only position player to whom the Yankees are committed beyond the 2014 season. And, although Arod’s contract receives the most scrutiny, their obligation to Teixeira is comparable, albeit over one fewer season (Arod is owed $24 million per season until 2017 and Teixeira is owed $23 million per season until 2016). Granted, the Yankees’ first baseman is four years younger than Rodriguez, but Arod’s rate-based offensive performance has been similar to Teixeira’s over the past three seasons.

Since his inaugural season with the Yankees, Teixeira’s offensive performance has gradually declined. Over that span, there have been many theories for his regression, but regardless of the cause, there’s no denying the potential effect a continued drop off could have on the future of the Yankees’ lineup. With a farm system devoid of major league ready offensive players and an owner seemingly committed to a significant payroll reduction, the Yankees’ offense will be hampered if Arod and Teixeira are unable to come remotely close to providing production that matches the $47 million they’ll be paid over the next four seasons.

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Baseball, Injuries, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Tagged Mark Teixeira | 4 Comments »

Yankees Look to High Socks for Hope; Need Robertson To Reprise Houdini Act

September 7, 2012 by William Juliano

This season, Robertson hasn’t been as successful wriggling out of jams.

The Yankees were poised for their biggest win of the season. After scoring five runs to tie the game in the top of the eighth, Joe Girardi handed the ball to David Robertson with the expectation that he would carry the deadlock into the ninth. It was the same script that seemed to work every time in 2011, but last night, the curtain was lowered after only four pitches.

Last year, Robertson was as dominant as a reliever can be. In 66 innings, the right hander only allowed 40 hits and one home run, while striking out nearly 14 per game. After last night’s implosion, he has already allowed 42 hits and five long balls, despite pitching 20 fewer innings. Also, and perhaps of even greater concern, as the year has gone on, his strike out rate has declined.

Robertson’s Strikeout and Hit Rates by Month, 2012

Note: Robertson pitched only 3 1/3 innings in May because of a stint on the disabled list.
Source: baseball-reference.com

It seems a little perverse to be talking about Robertson’s struggles when his ERA and most of his peripherals remain well above the league average. However, in 2011, Robertson set the bar high, so it’s only natural that he would suffer by the comparison. Having said that, what makes Robertson’s 2012 campaign suspect isn’t his aggregate performance, but his frequent struggles when pitching in high leverage situations.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged David Robertson | Leave a Comment »

Like Mentor Martin, Early Success No Surprise for Buck Showalter

September 5, 2012 by William Juliano

Showalter was part of the brain trust that helped restore the Yankees to excellence. (Photo: Daily News)

Regardless of what happens over the next month, by virtue of being tied for first place in September, the Baltimore Orioles represent one of the biggest baseball surprises in recent memory. However, those with their ears to the ground of history probably shouldn’t be too shocked by the Birds’ ascent to the top perch in the American League East.

Entering the season, another positive indicator for Baltimore was the track record of manager Buck Showalter. In his four managerial stints (Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Orioles), Showalter has taken over a struggling franchise and turned them into a winner by his second full year on the job. Critics will point out that his turnarounds have required a new manager to take the final step toward a championship, but at the very least, Showalter has played a major role in changing the direction of every team he has managed.

Buck Showalter’s Second Year Magic

*+22 if pro rated over the rest of the season.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The managers/coaches in sports who wear the most rings get all the glory, but Showalter has carved out a unique niche as baseball’s anti-Phil Jackson. In fact, it’s hard to think of another manager with a similar track record of turning bad teams around. Only one other name comes to mind, and he just so happens to be Showalter’s mentor.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Baltimore Orioles, Billy Martin, Buck Showalter | Leave a Comment »

Amid Collapse, Yankees Still Have Time to Rebuild

September 4, 2012 by William Juliano

Is there panic in the Yankees’ eyes as they watch their division lead dwindle?

The Yankees are in the midst of a collapse. Many fans have been sensitive about using that word, but it’s an appropriate description for what has happened to the team since establishing a 10-game lead in the middle of July.

The Yankees’ lead has not been leveled completely, but the 2012 Bronx Bombers have already become only the second team in franchise history to see a double digit advantage whittled all the way down to a single game. Does that qualify as a collapse? It probably depends on whether you focus upon the one game lead remaining or the nine games that have been shaved off, but ultimately, defining the Yankees’ recent slide is really nothing more than a game of semantics. The important question isn’t whether the team has collapsed, but if it can recover and rebuild.

Although the Yankees have gradually frittered away their lead since July 17, the process has been accelerated in the last two weeks. Over that span, in which the team has lost 10 games and forfeited five from its first place cushion, each part of the team has struggled, but the main culprit has been the offense.

Since August 21, Yankee starters and relievers rank eighth and 14th in the American League, albeit with respectable ERAs of 4.14 and 3.90. Normally, that level of run prevention would be more than enough for the Bronx Bombers, but the team’s bats have gone into a deep slumber. During the same period, the Yankees have scored only 3.1 runs per game, which ranks ahead of only the Cleveland Indians. From a historical perspective, the 48 runs the Yankees have scored over the last 15 games is the franchise’s lowest total over any similar period since 1992. So, if the Yankees are guilty of a collapse, it’s mostly because the Bronx Bombers’ bats have crashed and burned.

Lowest Run Total in a 15-Game Stretch, Per Season Since 1992

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, Mets, MLB, Red Sox, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Girardi’s Steady Handy Guides Yanks Down Stretch; Manager Proved Mettle in 2008

September 2, 2012 by William Juliano

Mariano Rivera. Andy Pettitte. Alex Rodriguez. CC Sabathia. Mark Teixeira. That litany, which would normally read like a roll call of the franchise’s most accomplished All Stars, has this year doubled as the team’s disabled list. However, despite these significant injuries, the Yankees have persevered by mixing and matching a roster full of platoon players. Usually, when a ballclub has success under such adverse conditions, the skipper is given consideration for the Manager of the Year award, but because of the Yankees’ high payroll, Joe Girardi is likely to get only token support.

Girardi had to face many challenges in his first season as Yankees’ manager, including the specter of Joe Torre.

The last thing on Girardi’s mind is the Manager of the Year award, so the Yankees’ skipper would probably laugh at a campaign promoting his candidacy. Foremost on his mind is the hard charging Orioles and the increasingly competitive American League, not the recognition that comes with a Manager of the Year trophy. However, that doesn’t mean Girardi’s handling of the Yankees’ depleted roster isn’t worthy of some praise.

Since taking over for Joe Torre after the 2007 seasons, Girardi hasn’t gotten much credit for his managerial prowess. Instead, he is more often the butt of jokes for his much exaggerated reliance on a binder full of statistical matchups. However, those misguided quips (of which I am just as guilty as anyone of making) ignore the much more significant role he has played steering the Yankees through a transition period without the typical bumps and bruises that sometimes follow the passing of the baton from a legendary manager.

The 2012 Red Sox are a perfect example of what can wrong during a transition year. After eight mostly successful seasons under Terry Francona, the team’s stunning collapse at the end of 2011 convinced Boston that it was time to go in a different direction. Whether or not that was a sound decision, the road the team took turned out to be a detour. Almost from day one, new manager Bobby Valentine found himself embroiled in controversy, which seemed to envelop the team like a pall, eventually leading to the dramatic roster cleanup that occurred at the end of August. As a result, the Red Sox are now potentially faced with another transition period, while fans are left to wonder exactly when the team will re-emerge as the perennial contender they had become under Francona.

In 2008, Girardi faced a similar challenge when he took over for Joe Torre, whose “mutual parting” from the Yankees was as acrimonious as Francona’s “decision” to walk away from Boston. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees decided to go in a different direction, hiring the more intense and involved Girardi as a replacement for the more placid and diplomatic Torre (sound familiar?). And, just like Valentine, Girardi experienced more than a few early bumps along the way.

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Baseball, MLB, Red Sox, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged Joe Girardi | 2 Comments »

To Bunt or Not to Bunt

August 30, 2012 by William Juliano

The American League East was a crucible yesterday for arguments both for and against the bunt. In games between the Yankees and Blue Jays as well as the Rays and Rangers, the use, or lack, of a bunt either paid handsome dividends or proved costly, both in its successful implementation and failed execution.

Even the Sultan of Swat laid down an occasional bunt.

With the Rays already leading 3-0 in the top of the second, B.J. Upton strolled to the plate with one out and runners and first and third. Considering the strength of the Rays pitching staff, which has allowed more than four runs in only six of the team’s last 40 games, plating an extra run probably seemed like the ball game. Apparently, that’s what Joe Maddon was thinking because he had B.J. Upton, who has slugged nearly .600 in his last 20 games, attempt a safety squeeze. Luckily for the Rays, the bunt was unsuccessful because two pitches later the centerfielder deposited a Matt Harrison offering deep into the left field stands. Was that a better outcome for the Rays? After the game, Upton put it best. “Definitely”, he simply stated when asked about the turn of events.

Earlier in the day at Yankee Stadium, the Blue Jays had a similar twist of fate when Yunel Escobar squared around to bunt on the first four pitches of his sixth inning at bat against CC Sabathia. Whether or not the short stop actually intended to sacrifice, on the fifth pitch, he gave the Blue Jays a 5-4 lead by homering. The two run blast was just part of a 4-5 day by Escobar in which he drove in a career high five runs. Once again, it was a good thing for Toronto that Escobar was unsuccessful in his attempt to sacrifice.

If every failed bunt attempt ended up with a long ball, the Yankees would have taken a lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. With no outs and Russell Martin representing the tying run on second base, Ichiro Suzuki missed on two attempts to lay down a bunt. However, instead of going deep after failing to sacrifice, he wound up striking out. It was the second consecutive at bat in which the left fielder was unable to advance a runner from second with no outs, and in each instance the Yankees failed to score.

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Red Sox, Dodgers Blockbuster a Tale of Two Cities

August 26, 2012 by William Juliano

After the Red Sox collapsed down the stretch last year, they fired the manager. It didn’t work, so now the team’s brain trust has decided to fire the players.

Time have changed in Boston since the optimism surrounding the acquisitions of Gonzalez and Crawford.

The current edition of the Boston Red Sox was supposed to be the best team ever, but instead, they wound up being the worst money could buy. Now, less than two seasons removed from being a near unanimous favorite to win the World Series, John Henry and company have embarked on a new campaign of Nation rebuilding.

In order for the Red Sox to put their reconstruction project in motion, the team first needed to find a financial backer. Enter the Los Angeles Dodgers. Since purchasing the franchise for a record setting sum north of $2 billion, the team’s new ownership group, led by global investment firm Guggenheim Partners, hasn’t been afraid to flex its financial muscle. However, no one could have anticipated the amount of heavy lifting they were prepared to do.

By jettisoning Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, the Red Sox have pushed the reset button on 2013 and made over $250 million in salary commitments disappear. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have further bolstered their playoff push with the addition of two players who only last year were All Stars, while also making a pre-emptive strike ahead of the upcoming free agent class. In many ways, the blockbuster deal is a tale of two cities.

Considering the disappointment of the past two seasons, it makes perfect sense for the Red Sox to blow up their roster. However, the exile of Crawford, Gonzalez, and Beckett isn’t the beginning, and may not be the end, of the purge. After firing Terry Francona, Jonathan Papelbon and Kevin Youkilis were the next pieces to go, and, in the offseason, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury may also be out the door. Demolition is the easiest step in the rebuilding process, but now comes the hard part.

Although some of the prospects the Red Sox received are promising, especially Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, neither is a can’t miss blue chip. Instead, what makes the deal a potential winner for the Red Sox is the massive salary relief that will extend until 2018. However, a lot will depend on what the team does with the savings. If the Red Sox plan is to retrench and wait for the farm system to yield a new crop, it could be a while before the fruits of the trade are harvested. On the other hand, Boston could immediately reinvest the savings in the upcoming free agent class, but in that case, there are no guarantees the new regime will do a better job picking the players. Keep in mind, even though Crawford, Gonzalez, and Beckett were struggling this season, the team’s ultimate goal isn’t to improve upon 2012, but restore the expectations entering 2011, when all three players were All Stars.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Red Sox, Trades, Yankees | 2 Comments »

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