The Captain's Blog

High Anxiety as Yankees Dwindling Lead Threatens to Make History

August 24, 2012 by William Juliano

Are the Yankees in the midst of a historic collapse? Not too long ago, the Bronx Bombers appeared to be in cruise control headed toward another division title, but now, their lead in the American League East seems to be in grave danger.

With the Yankees idle last night, the Tampa Rays, whose pitching staff continues to perform at an extraordinary level, were able to shave another half game off the Bronx Bombers’ dwindling lead. Not since June 24, exactly two months to the day, has the Yankees’ advantage in the division been as low as the current 2.5 games. As a result, what was once a season high 10-game bulge on July 18 is now in jeopardy of being frittered away, putting the team on the brink of franchise infamy.

Game Days Spent with a Double-Digit Division Lead, 1901-Present

Source: baseball-reference.com aggregate data

The New York Yankees have never lost a double-digit division lead, and not for a lack of opportunity. Since 1901, the Bronx Bombers have enjoyed a lead of 10 games or greater on at least one day in 28 different seasons. Combined, the Yankees have spent 1,019 game days with a double-digit lead, or just over 6% of the time (8% since taking their first 10-plus game lead in 1923). So, the good news is, if there’s a franchise comfortable dealing with success, it is clearly the New York Yankees.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Post Season, Red Sox, Yankees | Tagged Tampa Bay Rays | 3 Comments »

Yankees Whiff on Scouting Report vs. Francisco Liriano

August 22, 2012 by William Juliano

During Joe Girardi’s WCBS pre-game interview with Suzyn Waldman, the Yankees’ manager talked about his lineup’s need for patience when facing White Sox lefty Francisco Liriano. The game plan was correct, but executing it proved to be easier said than done.

You gotta lay off the pitches that appear to be strikes. I always talked about it when he was in Minnesota. He was the one guy that had the ability to throw pitches that look like strikes but ended up being balls. He is going to run his fastball off the plate to right handers and his change-up is going to be below the zone. If you can lay off them, you’re gonna get some free baserunners.” – Joe Girardi, WCBS radio, August 21, 2012

After throwing over 30 pitches in the first inning of last night’s game, Liriano seemed destined for an early shower. However, unlike his previous start against the Yankees, which lasted only 2 1/3 innings, Liriano settled down to throw five shutout innings after allowing two runs in the opening frame. And, just as Girardi’s scouting report indicated, one of the main reasons he was able to survive the rocky beginning was because of his ability to throw pitches off the plate that must have looked like strikes to the flailing Yankee batters.

Francisco Liriano Pitch/FX Chart: Swinging Strikes

Source: www.joelefkowitz.com

By the time Liriano’s evening was over, he had induced the Yankees to swing and miss at 11 pitches out of the strike zone, which matched the Orioles’ Miguel Gonzalez for the highest total recorded against the Bronx Bombers by one pitcher in a single game. The main culprit for the Yankees was Robinson Cano, who whiffed on four pitches out of the zone, including three times in his first at bat. The struggling second baseman had plenty of company, however, as Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher, Jayson Nix, and Casey McGehee all came up empty on at least one pitch off the plate.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, PitchFX, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Tagged Chicago White Sox, Francisco Liriano | Leave a Comment »

Dewayne Wise Proves Turnabout Is Fair Play

August 21, 2012 by William Juliano

Freddy Garcia was cruising along in last night’s game until Dewayne Wise launched a two-run homer in the fifth inning. The journeyman outfielder, who was released by the Yankees in July following the acquisition of Ichiro Suzuki, must have enjoyed the vindication.

The sight of Wise circling the bases during a game between the Yankees and White Sox is nothing new. On June 30, while still a member of the Bronx Bombers, Wise went 3-3 against Chicago right hander Jake Peavy, including a home run deep into the right field stands. By virtue of his equal opportunity home runs, Wise became only the 11th player in Yankees’ history to play both sides of the fence in a single season series by hitting a ball over it for each team.

Turnabout Is Fair Play

Note: Compiling this data required a significant amount of manual input. Although this information is strongly believed to be accurate, please leave a comment if you notice any omissions.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Pinstripes Prove Slimming for Hiroki Kuroda’s ERA

August 20, 2012 by William Juliano

Can Hiroki Kuroda handle the pressure of New York? That was the question on the minds of many when the Yankees signed the 37-year old right hander during the offseason, but since then, Kuroda has proven that pinstripes suit him just fine.

Despite concerns, Kuroda has fit into pinstripes quite nicely. (Photo: AP)

With about eight more starts remaining, Kuroda has posted the best ERA, on both a real and adjusted basis, of his career, despite crossing over to the more menacing A.L. East. He is also one win shy of his all-time high and on pace to throw the most innings of his career. In more ways than one, Kuroda has distinguished himself during his first season in pinstripes, but perhaps the most surprising aspect of his success is just how dominant he has been at Yankee Stadium.

With last night’s 4-1 victory over the Red Sox, Kuroda lowered his home ERA to 2.22, which ranks 23rd out of the 177 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings during a season at Yankee Stadium since the original ballpark opened in 1923 (excludes six players with 1ooIP seasons from 1974-1975, when the Yankees played at Shea Stadium). Kuroda’s miniscule home ERA is also the lowest by a Yankees’ pitcher since David Cone’s 1.90 rate in 1999, and before that, Ron Guidry’s sterling 1.79 in his Cy Young season of 1978. In terms of WHIP, Kuroda’s 2012 home performance ranks even higher. His 0.949 ratio is the seventh lowest ever recorded by a pinstriped pitcher and the best mark since David Wells’ 0.911 in 1998.

10 Lowest ERA and WHIP Seasons at Yankee Stadium, Since 1923

Note: Minimum 100 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium in a single season.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Tagged Hiroki Kuroda | Leave a Comment »

Melky Cabrera’s Positive Test, Not Performance, Proves PED Use

August 18, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstripe Alley)

Is increased testosterone responsible for Melky’s pumped up numbers?

Melky Cabrera was one of baseball’s most interesting feel good stories, that is, until Wednesday, when the San Francisco Giants’ left fielder tested positive for increased levels of testosterone. Now, the once emerging cult hero has become a public enemy.

Not surprisingly, the response to Cabrera’s positive drug test has been very emotional. Some have suggested that his statistics should be labeled with an asterisk, while others have demanded that he be disqualified from the batting race. Not content to only punish Cabrera, at least one pundit has suggested that the Giants should be forced to forfeit games in the standings. Although the outcry is understandable, most of the reaction has bordered on irrational. However, the most disturbing argument doesn’t deal with an appropriate punishment. Since the revelation of Cabrera’s positive test, some have suggested that the outfielder’s improved performance was a smoking gun, which is particularly dangerous logic because it can be used to cast suspicion even in the absence of evidence.

Before the abrupt end to his season, Cabrera had boosted his OPS by 12% (OPS of .906; OPS+ of 157) compared to last year. Should that increase have set off alarm bells? There are 12,000 qualified seasons in fangraphs.com’s data base, but for the purpose of comparison, the first one of each player’s career can be eliminated (because there is no prior point for comparison). That whittles the population down to 9,464, and among that sample, just under 14% of the seasons involved a greater improvement than the one Cabrera experienced in 2012. Although impressive, that doesn’t exactly qualify as abnormal.

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Tagged Melky Cabrera, San Francisco Giants | 6 Comments »

Should Melky Cabrera Be Disqualified from the Batting Race?

August 17, 2012 by William Juliano

All of a sudden, Andrew McCutchen has a new legion of fans. As one of this season’s brightest breakout stars, the Pirates’ centerfielder doesn’t need much help attracting a following, but thanks to Melky Cabrera, he now has most of the baseball world rooting for him to win the batting title.

Much of the baseball world has joined Pittsburgh in getting behind Andrew McCutchen’s pursuit of the batting crown. (Photo: ESPN, John Loomis)

Before being suspended, Cabrera was hitting .346 in 501 plate appearances, which is just one shy of what baseball considers a “qualified season”. However, that doesn’t mean the Giants’ left fielder is disqualified from the batting race. Instead, upon the Giants’ completion of a 162-game season, he will be assessed a hitless at bat and his resultant average, which would remain at .346, will be listed among the league leaders.

The idea of Cabrera winning the batting title while under suspension for PEDs is reprehensible to some. McCutchen is their white knight. With a current batting average of .359, the Pirates’ All Star maintains a comfortable lead over Cabrera. However, with third-ranked Joey Votto injured and Buster Posey a more distant fourth, a significant slump by McCutchen would hand the batting title to the disgraced Cabrera.

Instead of letting it reach that point, some have suggested that Cabrera should be disqualified from the batting race because of his positive drug test. At face value, such an action seems absurd. After all, if Cabrera ends the season with the highest batting average, nothing will change that fact. The record book is a repository for what has happened throughout the long history of the game, not what might have or should have occurred. Erasing statistics not only opens up a can of worms with regard to derivative impacts (e.g., should pitchers who gave up a hit to Cabrera be credited with an out instead) and accomplishments by other players, but it also erroneously stamps all other performances with a seal of approval. So, instead of trying to determine who cheated and who didn’t, it’s better to let history speak for itself.

Posted in Awards, Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Melky Cabrera | 1 Comment »

Hernandez, Jaso Become Latest Perfect Game Battery

August 16, 2012 by William Juliano

Felix Hernandez stood the mound with his leg in the air and his arms exulted over his head in triumph. The Mariners’ ace had just pitched the 23rd perfect game in baseball history (albeit the third one this season), further stamping his resume as not only one of the best pitchers in the game today, but of the recent era as well.

Like so many batterymates before them, Hernandez and Jaso embrace after the last out of the Mariners perfect game victory over the Rays. (Photo: AP)

As Hernandez celebrated alone, John Jaso, his catcher, went racing toward him. The 28-year old backstop, who previously spent parts of nine seasons in the minors before arriving in Seattle, wanted to be the first to congratulate Hernandez, but when the two men met behind the mound, they shared more than just an embrace. If only for that moment, some of the spotlight shined on Jaso as well.

Although it is the pitcher who rightly receives the lion’s share of the praise for throwing a perfect game, the catcher also plays an important role. After all, countless pitchers have gone out of the way to share credit with their backstops after a well pitched game (and just as many have been more than happy to share the blame after a bad outing), so a perfect game should be no different. And, sure enough, that’s exactly what Hernandez did in the postgame. Granted, some of the deflection was probably obligatory modesty, which for many seems to come from a great achievement, but the interplay between a pitcher and catcher is perhaps one of the most misunderstood elements of the game, at least among those who haven’t experienced it. It’s impossible to determine just how much of a role Jason played in executing what turned out to be a perfect game plan, but if Hernandez appreciated his effort, who are we to disagree?

The following list is presented in honor of the 22 catchers (Ron Hassey caught two) who have been behind the plate for a perfect game. By no means do they deserve equal credit, but their contributions should be noted, and what better way to do that than side-by-side with the pitcher who ended the game leaping into their arms?

Perfect Game Batterymates

Note: Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series is the only one ever thrown in the postseason.
Source: baseball-reference.com, baseballalmanac.com

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Felix Hernandez, Perfect Game, Seattle Mariners | Leave a Comment »

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