The Captain's Blog

Early Returns: MLB Draftees Who Have Jumped Right Into the Big Leagues

June 6, 2011 by William Juliano

Once conducted in relative obscurity, the MLB Rule IV draft has gained increased exposure over the last few years. However, because even the best prospects usually don’t surface in the majors for at least a year or two after being signed, the interest level in baseball’s draft continues to pale in comparison to the events held by the NFL and NBA

Dave Roberts debuted with the Padres one day after being drafted.

There are exceptions to this rule, however. Since the draft process was instituted in 1965 (in various forms including secondary events held in June and additional rounds held in January), 20 players have jumped right from the amateur level into the big leagues, including 13 within 30 days of being selected. However, no one’s transition was quicker than Dave Roberts, who needed only one day to sign a contract and make his major league debut with the Padres in 1972 (interestingly, three of the major league’s four Dave Roberts have played in San Diego).

Players Who Have Appeared in the Majors within 30 Days of Being Drafted

Draftees	Team	Drafted	Debuted	Days to Majors
Mike Adamson	Phillies	6-Jun-67	1-Jul-67	25
Steve Dunning	Indians	4-Jun-70	14-Jun-70	10
Pete Broberg	Rangers	8-Jun-71	20-Jun-71	12
Rob Ellis	Brewers	8-Jun-71	18-Jun-71	10
Burt Hooton	Cubs	8-Jun-71	17-Jun-71	9
Dave Roberts	Padres	6-Jun-72	7-Jun-72	1
Eddie Bane	Twins	5-Jun-73	4-Jul-73	29
David Clyde	Rangers	5-Jun-73	27-Jun-73	22
Dave Winfield	Padres	5-Jun-73	19-Jun-73	14
Tim Conroy	Athletics	6-Jun-78	23-Jun-78	17
Bob Horner	Braves	6-Jun-78	16-Jun-78	10
Brian Milner	Blue Jays	6-Jun-78	23-Jun-78	17
Mike Morgan	Athletics	6-Jun-78	11-Jun-78	5

Note: Dick Ruthven was selected by the Phillies in the second phase of the January 1973 draft and debuted on opening day of that year.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

After 1978, teams started taking a more patient approach with their draftees. Since that time, only John Olerud and Xavier Nady have bypassed the minors and played a big league game in the same year in which they were drafted. Otherwise, only Pete Incaviglia, Jim Abbott, Darren Dreifort and, most recently, Mike Leake have played their first professional game in a big league uniform, although each of those players needed to wait until the following season.

As evident from the names above, a quick burst on the scene doesn’t necessarily translate into long-term success. In fact, in most of the cases, the early promotions seemed to be more a case of wishful thinking than prudent expectations. Nonetheless, even though the impact of baseball’s draft lacks the immediacy of other sports, it has still become a day of new hope for teams badly in need of a talent infusion.

Posted in Baseball, Draft, MLB | Tagged Dave Winfield, San Diego Padres | Leave a Comment »

A Look at Recent Players Who Have Been Drafted More than Once

June 6, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

When the Pirates make the first selection in the 2011 MLB Rule V draft, Gerrit Cole is expected to be the name that is called. As many teams have learned in the past, however, making a selection is only the first step in the draft process.

Cole, a 20 year-old right hander from UCLA, should be well known to most Yankees fans because the young fire baller was the team’s 28th selection in the 2008 draft. Unfortunately for Brian Cashman, Cole eschewed the Yankees’ money and opted instead to go to college, making his loss a potential gain for Pittsburgh (or whatever team eventually drafts him).

Most Productive Active Players Drafted More than Once, Ranked by WAR

Player	WAR	Drafted	Years	Teams
Todd Helton	58.5	2x	1992, ’95	Padres, Rockies
Jason Giambi	53.1	2x	1989, ’92	Brewers, Athletics
J.D. Drew	46.9	3x	1994, ’97, ’98	Giants, Phillies, Cardinals
Tim Hudson	46.6	2x	1994, ’97	Athletics (2x)
Chase Utley	39.2	2x	1997, 2000	Dodgers, Phillies
Mark Teixeira	38	2x	1998, 2001	Red Sox, Rangers
Placido Polanco	34.7	2x	1993, ’94	White Sox, Cardinals
Barry Zito	31.8	3x	1996, ’98, ’99	Mariners, Rangers, Athletics
Michael Young	26	2x	1994, ’97	Orioles, Blue Jays
Cliff Lee	24	3x	1997, ’98, 2000	Marlins, Orioles, Expos

Source: Baseball-reference.com

If Cole eventually becomes the star that many predict, he won’t be the first Yankees’ draftee to spurn an offer and become a star for another team. Perhaps the most famous player to turn down the Yankees was Mark Prior, although among active players, Casey Blake has been the most productive. Otherwise, Daniel Bard is the only other notable player currently in the majors who was drafted, but not signed by the Yankees.

If [Drew] doesn’t agree to the numbers we have in mind, we won’t be able to sign him. I am not going to be a part of making the industry worse off financially than it is now.”– Phillies’ GM Bill Giles, Reading Eagle, June 4, 1997

Drew played in the independent league after refusing to sign with the Phillies.

Most of the time, the failure to sign a draft pick is the result of a club refusing to meet contract demands. The most famous case of a player sticking to his guns is J.D. Drew, who refused to sign with the Phillies for anything less than $10 million after being taken second overall in 1997 (Drew was also drafted by the Giants out of high school in 1994, but opted to attend college). At the time, bonuses for drafts picks were escalating, but Philadelphia GM Bill Giles refused to budge from his top offer of $3.1 million over four years. As a result, Scott Boras took his client to the independent St. Paul Saints, where Drew played for a year before being redrafted by the Cardinals in 1998. Although Drew didn’t get his $10 million asking price, the guaranteed $7 million deal more than doubled the Phillies’ best offer.

Posted in Baseball, Draft, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Going Deep: Sabathia Establishing Himself as Yankee Long Man

June 5, 2011 by William Juliano

Lately, when CC Sabathia has taken the mound, Yankees’ relievers have been able to take the day off. In his last four starts, the big lefty has gone at least eight innings, the longest such streak in the majors this season. Considering the bullpen was used for a combined 19 2/3 innings in the games before his starts, Sabathia’s stretch of durability couldn’t have come at a better time.

Over his career, Sabathia has been no stranger to going deep into a game, so pitching eight innings doesn’t seem like much of an accomplishment. However, his current streak is not only tied for the highest in his career, but since 2009, ranks second to Cliff Lee’s amazing run of 10 consecutive starts of eight innings, which was established last season.

Most Consecutive Starts of At Least Eight Innings, 2009-2011

Pitcher	Start	End	Games	W	L	CG	IP	ERA
Cliff Lee	6/18/2010	8/6/2010	10	6	2	5	86.1	2.08
CC Sabathia	5/19/2011	6/4/2011	4	4	0	1	33.2	1.60
Felix Hernandez	9/17/2010	4/1/2011	4	3	1	2	33	1.36
Felix Hernandez	6/13/2010	6/30/2010	4	3	0	2	35.2	1.26
Matt Cain	5/22/2010	6/8/2010	4	3	1	3	34	0.26
Tim Lincecum	6/12/2009	6/29/2009	4	3	1	3	35	1.03

Source: Baseball-reference.com

At his current pace, Sabathia would end the season with approximately 245 innings, giving him three straight seasons with at least 230. If the Yankees’ ace accomplishes that feat, he’d become the first Yankee to do it since Ed Figueroa in 1976 to 1978. What’s more, he would also become only the 23rd Yankees’ pitcher to throw at least 230 innings in any three seasons, and the eighth in the last 50 years.

Seasons with At Least 230 Innings by a Yankees’ Pitcher, Since 1961

Pitcher	Years	From	To	Age
Mel Stottlemyre	9	1965	1973	23-31
Whitey Ford	5	1961	1965	32-36
Ron Guidry	4	1978	1985	27-34
Fritz Peterson	4	1969	1972	27-30
Ed Figueroa	3	1976	1978	27-29
Doc Medich	3	1973	1975	24-26
Stan Bahnsen	3	1968	1971	23-26

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Sabathia is quickly establishing himself as one of the most durable (not to mention effective) starters in franchise history. In fact, he has been so good in his first two-plus seasons that it’s easy to sometimes take him for granted. However, his contribution to the team can’t be overstated, a realization that will likely come into play this off season. Should the big lefty decide to opt out, the Yankees may have no choice but to go just as deep as Sabathia.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged CC Sabathia | Leave a Comment »

Looking Back at the Expensive Free Agent Class of 2006

June 4, 2011 by William Juliano

Daisuke Matsuzaka’s decision to have season ending surgery prompted a post comparing his signing to the Yankees’ ill-fated acquisition of Kei Igawa. The conclusion reached was that both Japanese imports turned out to be busts, but perhaps not so outlandish in comparison to the rest of the 2006 free agent class. So, instead of leaving that point dangling, let’s take a look at how the other mega free agent deals signed that off season have fared to date.

Top-20 Contracts Signed in 2006 Off Season, by Total Dollars ($mn)

Player	Team	Years	Total	Value	Difference	Prorated Dif.
Mike Mussina	NYY	2	23.0	35.7	12.7	NA
Jason Marquis	CHC	3	21.0	32.8	11.8	NA
Gil Meche*	KAN	5	55.0	47.0	3.0	NA
Ted Lilly	CHC	4	40.0	40.6	0.6	NA
J.D. Drew#	BOS	5	70.0	58.4	-2.3	-2.6
Aubrey Huff	BAL	3	20.0	13.9	-6.1	NA
Juan Pierre#	LAD	5	44.0	29.4	-8.7	-10.1
Aramis Ramirez#	CHC	5	75.0	55.2	-9.8	-11.3
Alfonso Soriano#	CHC	8	136.0	62.3	-11.4	-21.0
Vicente Padilla	TEX	3	33.8	20.3	-13.5	NA
Miguel Batista	SEA	3	25.0	4.3	-20.7	NA
Adam Eaton	PHI	3	24.5	-0.2	-24.7	NA
Julio Lugo	BOS	4	36.0	4.2	-31.8	NA
Jeff Suppan	MIL	4	42.0	6.0	-36.0	NA
Carlos Lee#	HOU	6	100.0	33.2	-39.0	-54.0
Barry Zito#	SFO	7	126.0	31.7	-46.3	-74.8
Kei Igawa^	NYY	5	46.0	-0.8	-46.8	NA
Jason Schmidt	LAD	3	47.0	0.0	-47.0	NA
Gary Matthews^	LAA	5	50.0	-3.2	-53.2	NA
Daisuke Matsuzaka^	BOS	6	103.1	43.9	-59.2	NA

*By retiring, Meche forfeited final year of salary. ^#Players still active and contracts still ongoing (“difference” based on pro-rated total to date; “pro-rated difference” based on estimated total value minus total contract value). ^Contracts still ongoing, but no further contribution from player assumed.
Note: Value is a WAR-based conversion into dollars.
Source: fangraphs.com and mlbtraderumors.com

Posted in Baseball, Business and Finance, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Was Kei Igawa a Better Signing than Dice-K?

June 3, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Now that Daisuke Matsuzaka’s decision to have Tommy John surgery has essentially closed the book on his Red Sox career, we can finally examine whether the signing was worthwhile. In addition, the same analysis can be used to settle another rivalry-based question: who was the better (or less disastrous) acquisition, Matsuzaka or Kei Igawa?

As a member of the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka piqued the interest of baseball general managers.

It’s an absurd question, right? After all, Matsuzaka has been an above average pitcher over his major league career (although his last two-plus seasons have been well below average), while Kei Igawa has been a denizen of Scranton. However, after a closer look, the answer doesn’t seem so obvious.

When the Red Sox paid over $51 million for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka, it was not only an unprecedented price for a posted Japanese player, but also $13 million more than the next highest bid, which was made by the New York Mets. Although the Red Sox offer was high, expectations for Matsuzaka were even greater, with many experts predicting he was a lock to become an ace starter. Obviously, by committing over $100 million to the Japanese righty, the Red Sox expected just as much.

Although several teams made an offer, the bidding for Kei Igawa wasn’t as intense as it was for Matsuzaka. The Yankees’ top bid of $26 million easily out distanced the Mets, who once again finished second in the process (considering that team’s current fiscal troubles, it’s a good thing they came up short both times). Unlike Boston, however, the Yankees had very low expectations for the money spent. In fact, Brian Cashman went out of his way to temper the signing by first referring to Igawa as a back of the rotation starter and then later as a potential middle reliever. In other words, something other than performance-based expectations seemed to be behind the acquisition.

Matsuzaka’s a front-end of the rotation type of starter. I think we’ve been very honest in saying that we’re looking at Kei to help us solidify the back of the rotation. They’re dissimilar pitchers; we don’t want to confuse our fan base. But we think he can be a successful pitcher here in the major leagues.” – Brian Cashman, quoted by the New York Times, January 9, 2007

Whatever the motivation, Igawa proved to be a bust off the bat, and after 12 mostly disastrous starts in 2007, he was banished to the minor leagues. Meanwhile, after a slow start, Dice-K began to show signs of his promised dominance by going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008. Although many were skeptical of his peripherals and lack of innings, heading into the 2009 season, it looked as if Matsuzaka would at least come close to providing value that was comparable to his cost.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Tagged Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa | 8 Comments »

Yanks Streak Through Oakland, Continue Dominance Over Athletics

June 2, 2011 by William Juliano

Seattle isn’t the only city with streakers. A whole team of them just ran through Oakland.

Over the past three-plus seasons, the Yankees have had their way with the Athletics. Since 2008, the team has compiled a 24-4 (.857) record against the A’s, which, following the recent sweep at the Collisseum, now includes a current 10-game winning streak.

The last time the Yankees lost to the Athletics, a 4-2 defeat on April 22, 2010, the result was obscured by the on-field confrontation between Dallas Braden and Alex Rodriguez. However, ever since Braden showed New York how it was done “in the 209”, the Athletics haven’t even been in the same area code as the Yankees.

The Yankees’ dominance over the Athletics is not unlike the way the Bash Brother teams of the early 1990s used to manhandle the Bronx Bombers. At one point, Tony LaRussa’s powerhouse A’s reeled off 16 consecutive victories over the hapless Yankees, coming within one victory of the longest winning streak by one team against the franchise.

Yankees’ Longest Winning and Losing Streaks by Franchise

vs.	W Strk	Years	vs.	L Strk	Years
Orioles	21	1927	Red Sox	17	1911-12
Athletics	16	1919	Athletics	16	1989-91
Indians	13	1976-77	Indians	13	1908
Twins	13	2002-03	Tigers	12	1908
Blue Jays	13	1995-96	Orioles	11	1907-08
Red Sox	12	1936, 1952-53	Blue Jays	10	1992
Royals	12	1997-98	Twins	9	1912
Tigers	11	1942	White Sox	8	1967, 1972-73
Rays	11	1998-1999	Brewers	7	1972-73
White Sox	10	1944-45, 1964	Rangers	7	1990
Rangers	10	1961-1962	Angels	5	Several
Mariners	8	1999, 2007-08	Royals	5	1978, 1990
Angels	7	1980-81	Mariners	5	Several
Brewers	7	1971-72	Rays	4	2005
Mets	7	2002-03	Mets	3	Several

Note: Only includes teams against which the Yankees have played at least 25 games.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Mets, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Tagged Baltimore Orioles, Oakland Athletics | Leave a Comment »

Handy Men: Arod and Granderson Have an About Face Against Lefties

June 1, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

By roughing up Brett Anderson in last night’s 10-3 victory over the Athletics, the Yankees improved their record against lefthanders to 11-6, the fourth best mark in baseball. In addition, the Yankees exited the game with the two batters who have the most RBIs against southpaws: Curtis Granderson (19) and Robinson Cano (18).

Have mechanical adjustments turned Granderson into a lefthander’s worst nightmare (Photo: NY Post)?

No one should be surprised to see Cano among the games most effective hitters against left-handed pitching. Over his career, the Yankees’ lefty swinging second baseman has had considerable success facing hurlers who throw from the port side. Since 2007, Cano’s wOBA against lefties has been .370, including a rate of at least .349 in every season over that span.

Curtis Granderson, however, is another story. When the Yankees acquired him from the Tigers before the 2010 season, the biggest knock on Granderson was his inability to hit lefties. In fact, many suggested that the weakness would eventually render him a platoon player. After a difficult first few months in pinstripes, it looked as if that prediction would come true, but following a much heralded tutorial with hitting coach Kevin Long, Granderson completely changed his profile as a hitter.

Not only does Granderson lead the majors in RBIs off left-handed pitching, he is also tops with nine home runs and third in wOBA with an astounding rate of .505. What’s more, he hasn’t exactly been picking on the weaker members of the herd. Counted among Granderson’s long ball victims are Jon Lester, David Price and Anderson, three of the best lefties in the American League.

Major League Leaders Against Lefthanders, Ranked by wOBA

Name	Team	wOBA	PA	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chris Iannetta	Rockies	0.565	45	6	13	0.333	0.467	0.917
Jay Bruce	Reds	0.545	47	5	16	0.381	0.435	0.857
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	0.505	69	9	19	0.323	0.373	0.823
Howie Kendrick	Angels	0.503	66	5	10	0.364	0.462	0.727
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	0.503	45	4	7	0.333	0.467	0.750
Mike Napoli	Rangers	0.495	55	5	15	0.302	0.455	0.721
Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	0.490	43	2	5	0.378	0.465	0.676
Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	0.490	49	4	9	0.391	0.429	0.717
Michael Young	Rangers	0.489	64	1	13	0.431	0.484	0.655
Jed Lowrie	Red Sox	0.485	59	3	16	0.429	0.441	0.696

Source: fangraphs.com

Considering the Yankees have two lefthanders who have feasted on pitchers throwing from the same side, one might expect the team’s overall performance against southpaws to be off the charts. However, that’s not the case. Although the team’s wOBA of .365 against lefthanders is very impressive, it isn’t an extraordinary figure. In fact, the Yankees are not even close to the rate posted by the Cardinals, who lead the league with a wOBA of .388 against lefties.

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Curtis Granderson | Leave a Comment »

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