The Captain's Blog

Soria’s Removal as Royals’ Closer Underscores Dominance of Rivera’s Reign

May 31, 2011 by William Juliano

After suffering a third consecutive blown save, Joakim Soria has been at least temporarily relieved of his duties as Kansas City Royals’ closer.

Over the past four seasons, Soria not only established himself as one of the best closers in the game, but also began to draw comparisons to the great Mariano Rivera. That’s what makes his sudden demotion so shocking. Then again, maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised? Since Rivera ascended to the throne of the game’s greatest closer, there have been many would-be challengers to his crown, but none have been able to stand the test of time. Meanwhile, the 41-year old Rivera keeps rolling along.

In addition to Soria, other closers who have either drawn comparison to or been billed as “the next Mariano Rivera” include Billy Wagner, Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon and Brad Lidge. In addition, at one time, it was suggested by some that closers like Joe Nathan and Eric Gagne had actually surpassed the great Rivera. Although many of these pitchers have had one or two seasons as good as or better than Rivera, none have maintained his longevity or consistency. And, while the youngest of the bunch, Soria, Papelbon and Krod, are still capable of striving for the throne, each has had at least one hiccup, something Rivera has avoided to this day.

WAR of Top Relievers, by Age and Season, 1996 to 2011

Note: “Top” closers, such as Troy Percival and Trevor Hoffman, who pre-dated Mariano Rivera not considered.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

What has made Mariano Rivera the undisputed king of closers is how long he has been able to sustain his dominance. While the career trajectories of his contemporaries have tended to flatten out over time, Rivera has maintained an almost steady climb well past the age when most closers begin to falter. It remains to be seen for how much longer Rivera’s career path with continue its inexorable climb of greatness, but as younger challengers to throne continue to fall by the wayside, it’s still “long live the King”.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged closers, Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera | Leave a Comment »

Colon Records Rare Yankees’ Shutout; Accomplishes Feat with Fourth Different Team

May 30, 2011 by William Juliano

By holding the Oakland Athletics scoreless over nine innings, Bartolo Colon became the first Yankees’ pitcher to throw a shutout since C.C. Sabathia accomplished the feat in 2009 against the Baltimore Orioles. Colon also became the Yankees’ first right hander to throw a shutout since Chien-Ming Wang blanked the Devil Rays in 2006, as well as the oldest since a 40-year old Roger Clemens shut down the Anaheim Angels in 2003. Although the relevance of the complete game shutout has been greatly diminished over the years, the 5-0 victory was also only the fifteenth recorded by a Yankees’ pitcher over the last 10 seasons.

Yankees’ CG Shutouts Since 2002

Player	Date	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	BB	SO	Pit	GSc
Bartolo Colon	5/30/2011	OAK	W 5-0	9	4	0	6	103	85
CC Sabathia	5/8/2009	BAL	W 4-0	9	4	1	8	112	86
Chien-Ming Wang	7/28/2006	TBD	W 6-0	9	2	2	1	104	82
Aaron Small	9/3/2005	OAK	W 7-0	9	5	2	3	112	78
Mike Mussina	6/14/2005	PIT	W 9-0	9	5	1	6	109	82
Carl Pavano	5/17/2005	SEA	W 6-0	9	5	0	7	133	84
Mike Mussina	5/7/2005	OAK	W 5-0	9	4	2	3	131	80
Mike Mussina	8/17/2003	BAL	W 8-0	9	3	0	9	121	90
Roger Clemens	7/30/2003	ANA	W 8-0	9	5	1	5	115	81
David Wells	4/10/2003	MIN	W 2-0	9	3	0	6	96	87
Mike Mussina	9/24/2002	TBD	W 6-0	9	2	2	12	120	93
Mike Mussina	8/28/2002	BOS	W 7-0	9	3	1	9	103	89
Andy Pettitte	6/30/2002	NYM	W 8-0	9	3	2	8	120	87
Ted Lilly	6/22/2002	SDP	W 1-0	9	3	2	11	113	90
David Wells	5/16/2002	TBD	W 13-0	9	3	0	6	112	87

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

On a personal level, Colon’s shutout of the Athletics was the ninth in his career and first since July 5, 2006 against the Mariners. Colon has also now thrown a complete game shutout with four different teams. Of them all, however, none compare to his domination of the Yankees on September 18, 2000. While a member of the Indians, Colon not only shutout the Bronx Bombers on one hit, but also struck out 13 batters in the process. The resultant game score of 97 was by far the highest in his career.

Colon’s Prior CG Shutouts

Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	BB	SO	Pit	GSc
7/5/2006	LAA	SEA	W 4-0	9	4	0	2	91	81
8/19/2002	MON	SDP	W 4-0	9	2	2	6	95	87
5/31/2002	CLE	CHW	W 7-0	9	8	2	4	122	73
3/31/2002	CLE	ANA	W 6-0	9	5	2	5	98	80
9/18/2000	CLE	NYY	W 2-0	9	1	1	13	114	97
8/9/1999	CLE	ANA	W 4-0	9	7	0	5	128	78
6/8/1998	CLE	PIT	W 8-0	9	4	1	3	96	81
4/4/1998	CLE	ANA	W 11-0	9	4	3	10	131	86

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Bartolo Colon | 1 Comment »

Yankees Stumble to Season’s First Milepost

May 29, 2011 by William Juliano

After 50 games, and one day before Memorial Day marks the titular quarter pole of the season, the Yankees’ record stands at an underwhelming 27-23.

Yankees’ Record After 50 Games, 2002-2011

Year	Record	Pct.	RS	RA	Final Record	Result
2002	32-18	0.640	273	193	103-58	Division Champ
2003	29-21	0.580	279	219	101-61	AL Pennant
2004	31-19	0.620	283	243	101-61	Division Champ
2005	27-23	0.540	275	260	95-67	Division Champ
2006	30-20	0.600	301	232	97-65	Division Champ
2007	21-29	0.420	258	239	94-68	Wild Card
2008	25-25	0.500	222	223	89-73	3rd Place
2009	29-21	0.580	283	263	103-59	WS Champ
2010	30-20	0.600	278	209	95-67	Wild Card
2011	27-23	0.540	257	208	–	–

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Although a .540 winning percentage is hardly a disaster, the way the Yankees have compiled their record is what makes it seem unfulfilling. Since reaching a high watermark of 17-9 on May 2, the Yankees have gone 10-14 and, in the process, lost 6.5 games to the Red Sox in the standings. The team has also played sloppily during the stretch, losing several close games of the type they always seemed to win in the past. As a result, the Yankees’ record is currently three games below its Pythagorean expectation.

In addition to the team’s poor play, another underlying concern is the schedule. Entering the season, the first two months looked like an opportunity for the Yankees to build a cushion, but instead the team squandered its heavy dose of home games by only going 17-13 in the Bronx. With 16 more games slated for June, the Yankees will have one last chance to capitalize on home cooking because, in the second half, 60% of the schedule will be played on the road.

As Bill Parcells once famously said, you are what your record says you are, and after 50 games, the Yankees are a very ordinary team. The good news, however, is 2011 seems to be shaping up as a year of unusual parity. Currently, 11 of 14 American League teams are within arm’s length of .500, which means even at 27-23, the Yankees still have the third best record in the league. Of course, they are also only three games removed from the 11th worst record. That’s why parity is a double-edged sword.

One of the most overused, and most accurate, baseball clichés is the season is a marathon, not a sprint. For that reason, it doesn’t pay to overreact to even a 30-game stretch early in the season because there is usually enough time to recover from a stumble. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t cause for concern.

Like any marathon, it pays to know the course that lies ahead and the strength of the competitor who has slowly started to pull in front. In this regard, the Yankees have two formidable opponents. If the Yankees are going to win the A.L. East, they will not only need to regain their own pace, but do so on the road while chasing a Boston team that seems to have finally found its legs. As the season now turns to the second quarter pole on July 4, the Yankees need to either catch a second wind or risk being left behind in the dust.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Yanks Follow Formula to Defeat; Soriano’s Injury Creates Void, but Not in Eighth Inning

May 28, 2011 by William Juliano

During his tenure as Yankees’ manager, Joe Girardi has adopted a formulaic approach to using the bullpen. During the early part of the season, his equation for winning was based on three variables: Joba Chamberlain in the seventh, Rafael Soriano in the eighth and Mariano Rivera in the ninth. However, Soriano’s injury poked a hole in the formula, causing Girardi to rejigger the components.

Luis Ayala, not David Robertson, was called upon to get the Yankees out of a bases loaded jam in the sixth inning (Photo: AP).

In order to fix his broken equation, Girardi moved Chamberlain to the eighth and David Robertson to the seventh. By doing so, however, he created a much larger void earlier in the game. Last night’s loss to the Mariners was the first manifestation of this formulaic deficiency.

After five innings, A.J. Burnett was nursing a 3-2 lead, but had thrown 97 pitches. As a result, Girardi decided to go to his bullpen, citing Burnett’s five walks and the two runs scored by the Mariners in the fifth. Considering that four of the walks came in the first two innings, and the two runs scored on ground ball outs after a cue ball double by Ichiro, this reasoning seemed to ignore not only the context of the game, but the current state of the Yankees’ bullpen.

We just thought we’d go to Boone for one out, and then go to Ayala and try to set it up for Robertson, Chamberlain and Mo.But we didn’t get there.” – Joe Girardi, quoted by the LoHud Yankees Blog, May 28, 2011

With Burnett lifted, Girardi turned to a combination of Boone Logan and Luis Ayala to face the bottom of the lineup. According to Girardi, he figured that the combination of the two relievers would be able to handle the weaker portion of the already anemic Mariners’ batting order. Of course, Burnett probably could have as well, but once you get past that decision, Girardi’s assumption is a fair one. However, once the duo loaded the bases with no outs, it was time to break from the formula. Unfortunately, Girardi did not.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged David Robertson, Joe Girardi | 2 Comments »

Youth Is Served: News Stars Helping to Refresh the Game

May 27, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Baseball is a young man’s game. Nothing drives that point home more than watching an aging superstar slowly lose his skills. Even though extraordinary figures like Nolan Ryan, Mariano Rivera, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens seem to defy the debilitating effects of father time, in the end, all great athletes are eventually conquered by their fleeting youth.

It has been often suggested that the advent of testing for PEDs (which many will probably take to mean steroids, but, more relevantly, also includes amphetamines) has led to a resurgence in the number of younger players having success. It’s nearly impossible to determine whether the decline of performance enhancers has had such impact, but we can at least try to see if, in fact, the game’s best players have become increasingly younger in recent years.

Average Age of MLB Players, All vs. WAR Leaders, 2000-2011 YTD

Note: “Top” categories composed of 30 best position players and 20 best pitchers ranked by WAR. In cases where there were ties, more players were included in the average.
Average age determined via a weighted average based on innings played at each position (plate appearances for DHs) and player age.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The chart above reveals that the average ages of the top players and pitchers in baseball have gotten younger. For position players, the decline has been more gradual, while the trend for pitchers has been much more dramatic. Also evident from the chart is both top pitchers and positions players have gradually become younger than the average age of all comparable players. Regardless of whether the impetus for this trend is PED testing, cyclical turnover, better player development and injury management or some combination of the many variables at play, the re-emergence of youth in the game seems unmistakable.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Rivera Reaches Milestone: A Look Back at Game 1 of 1,000

May 26, 2011 by William Juliano

When Mariano Rivera finished off the Yankees’ 7-3 victory against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, he became the first pitcher in major league history to record 1,000 games with one team. Remarkably, Rivera accomplished the feat two days removed from the 16th anniversary of his major league debut on May 23, 1995.

Mariano Rivera made his major league debut on May 23, 1995. Almost 16 years later, Rivera pitched in his 1,000th game for the Yankees.

Rivera’s first appearance as a Yankee came as a starter in Anaheim. The skinny right hander was summoned to the major leagues when Jimmy Key was placed on the disabled list, but his promotion might just as well have been a birthday gift to manager Buck Showalter, who was celebrating his 39th year that very day.

Although Rivera was a relatively unknown at the time, the hard throwing Panamanian first opened Showalter’s eyes during spring training in 1992. At the time, young arms like Mark Hutton, Sam Militello, Bob Wickman, Jeff Johnson and Sterling Hitchcock were touted as the future of the Yankees, but the rookie manager instead took an immediate liking to Rivera. In particular, Showalter made note of the young pitcher’s composure and control, two qualities that would become the hallmarks of a Hall of Fame career.

Mariano certainly has a good track record for throwing the ball over the plate. He’s been trying to get a little more depth to his breaking ball, but he’s been able to get people out by locating his fastball, changeup and slider. And he’s a good athlete. A real good athlete. – Buck Showalter, quoted in the New York Daily News, May 23, 1995

The night of Rivera’s debut, the crowd at Anaheim Stadium was treated to an outstanding pitching performance, but unfortunately for the Yankees, it didn’t come from their rookie right hander. Instead, Chuck Finley was the star of the night. The left hander, who made a habit of dominating the Yankees, struck out 15 batters on his way to a two-hit shutout.

Finley’s performance, which was the 100th of his career, and the Angels’ 10-0 victory completely overshadowed Rivera’s debut, which lasted only 3 1/3 innings. In the brief outing, Rivera surrendered five runs and eight hits, but also showed some flashes of brilliance by striking out five. Those flashes would eventually become roaring flames, but in the meantime, the young Rivera had a few lessons to learn.

One of the things Mariano can learn from tonight is that there’s not much margin for error up here. He missed a few times in some bad spots and he’s going to have to have better command of his off-speed stuff. He started out well and hopefully he’ll learn from it. Every pitcher goes through growing pains.” – Buck Showalter, quoted in the New York Daily News, May 24, 1995

As we now know, Rivera’s growing pains didn’t last long. After a few more inconsistent starts and a demotion to the minors, the future closer had what many consider to be his real coming out party on July 4. This time, Rivera’s outing turned out to be a worthy gift for the Boss, whose birthday’s cake must gone down a lot easier after Rivera’s 11 strikeouts in eight shutout innings. The rest of the season had its up and downs for Rivera, but the 1995 ALCS cemented his future as a prominent figure in an emerging Yankees’ dynasty. Unfortunately for Showalter, he wouldn’t be around to see it.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged Mariano Rivera | Leave a Comment »

Run-Away Offense: A Look at the Yankees’ Recent Offensive Downturn

May 25, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

The 2011 season has been a very perplexing one for the Yankees’ offense. Although the team’s lineup has looked futile on so many individual occasions, the aggregate numbers still suggest it is one of the best in baseball. Almost 50 games into the season, the Yankees not only lead the league in runs per game, but the lineup has also posted the most homeruns and the second highest wOBA. And yet, something still does not feel quite right.

Perhaps one reason it seems as if the Yankees have been struggling so much is because the team got off to such a quick start with the bats. In other words, although the lineup’s recent output hasn’t fallen too far behind the rest of the league, it has significantly lagged its earlier performance (not to mention preseason expectations). So, what short circuited the Yankees’ offense and when did it occur?

Yankees Offensive Performance over Defined Periods

Games	R/G	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
19 to 47	4.62	0.249	0.330	0.409	0.330
Rank	6	15	9	5t	5t
Season	5.17	0.254	0.335	0.445	0.344
Rank	1	12	3	1	2

Source: fangraphs.com

Segmenting a sample can often lead to a misleading analysis, but the tenor of the Yankees’ season seemed to change on April 25 when the team returned home for a four-game series against the White Sox. In that game, the 12-6 Bronx Bombers, who were leading the league with a whopping 6.1 runs/game, were opposed by journeyman Philip Humber, so the natural expectation was a blowout. However, the Chicago righty not only kept the Yankees from scoring a single run, but he also no hit them for 6 1/3 innings.

Since Humber’s masterpiece, the Yankees’ offense has fallen off considerably. Not only has the lineup’s per game run production dropped to 4.6, but most relevant metrics have taken a dip as well. Although it’s worth mentioning that the team’s production during this decline period has still been above average in aggregate, a closer look at each game tells a somewhat different story.

Of the 134 runs scored since April 25, almost 28% (37) have come in three games, meaning the team’s average in all others has been 3.7 runs. Obviously, negative outliers can’t simply be dismissed, but doing so helps to reveal a level of inconsistency that gets lost in the season totals.

Yankees’ Run Distribution, by Defined Period

Source: Baseball-reference.com