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Shuffling the Deck: Assigning Rotation Slots Nothing More than a Slight of Hand

March 20, 2011 by William Juliano

The last two slots in the Yankees’ starting rotation remain up for grabs, but the order of the first three has been officially established.

To the surprise of some, Joe Girardi announced that A.J. Burnett, not Phil Hughes, would follow CC Sabathia in the pecking order. Many have speculated that Girardi’s commitment to Burnett is really about instilling confidence in the enigmatic right hander, but in reality, the decision accurately reflects the current state of the Yankees’ rotation. For better or worse, Burnett is the Yankees’ second best pitcher.

Ten Worst* Seasons by a Yankees Starter, 1961-2010

Player Year ERA+ ERA GS IP W L
Terry Mulholland 1994 71 6.49 19 120.2 6 7
Richard Dotson 1988 80 5.00 29 171 12 9
Mike Kekich 1972 80 3.70 28 175.1 10 13
Scott Sanderson 1992 80 4.93 33 193.1 12 11
Mike Kekich 1971 80 4.07 24 170.1 10 9
Melido Perez 1993 80 5.19 25 163 6 14
Andy Hawkins 1989 81 4.80 34 208.1 15 15
A.J. Burnett 2010 81 5.26 33 186.2 10 15
Ron Guidry 1984 84 4.51 28 195.2 10 11
Rudy May 1981 86 4.14 22 147.2 6 11

*Ranked by ERA+. Includes pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Burnett’s 2010 season was historically bad, but it should also be noted that it was a career outlier. His ERA+ of 81 and WAR of 1.3 were both the lowest totals for any season in which he pitched at least 100 innings. Burnett’s next lowest ERA+ in a full season was 104 in 2008 (the same year he won a career high 18 games).  In other words, it would be shortsighted to project Burnett’s 2011 performance based on one extraordinarily poor year. Continue Reading »

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Debate About Jeter’s Slot in the Lineup Has Been Out of Order

March 18, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

Ever since (and even before) the ink dried on his contract extension, there has been a lot of talk about “moving” Derek Jeter, whether it be down in the batting order or to one of the corner positions on the field. So, not surprisingly, Joe Girardi’s recent decision to tinker with his batting order during spring training generated a bit of a buzz.

Before last night’s exhibition game against Tampa, Brett Gardner found himself leading off, while Jeter batted second. Judging by some of the reaction, you’d have thought this constituted a revolutionary change. Even if the move was made on Opening Day, instead of during the exhibition schedule, it still wouldn’t have been a big deal. After all, over the course of his career, Jeter’s position in the lineup has regularly changed to fit the team’s roster at the time.

Most Common Yankees’ Leadoff Hitters, 1996-2010

Year Leader Second Third
1996 Wade Boggs (79) Derek Jeter (40) Tim Raines (38)
1997 Derek Jeter (102) Tim Raines (52) Scott Pose (6)
1998 Chuck Knoblauch (150) Homer Bush (9) Derek Jeter (3)
1999 Chuck Knoblauch (148) Scott Brosius (4) Chad Curtis (4)
2000 Chuck Knoblauch (101) Derek Jeter (21) Ricky Ledee (13)
2001 Chuck Knoblauch (125) Derek Jeter (26) Alfonso Soriano (7)
2002 Alfonso Soriano (150) Derek Jeter (10) Enrique Wilson (1)
2003 Alfonso Soriano (141) Derek Jeter (20) Enrique Wilson (1)
2004 Derek Jeter (62) Bernie Williams (47) Kenny Lofton (41)
2005 Derek Jeter (154) Tony Womack (8)  
2006 Johnny Damon (144) Melky Cabrera (17) Bernie Williams (1)
2007 Johnny Damon (123) Melky Cabrera (32) Bobby Abreu (5)
2008 Johnny Damon (131) Brett Gardner (12) Melky Cabrera (9)
2009 Derek Jeter (147) Brett Gardner (11) Johnny Damon (4)
2010 Derek Jeter (137) Brett Gardner (25)  

Source: Baseball-reference.com

In 1996, Jeter gradually made his way from the bottom of the lineup to the top before establishing himself as the primary leadoff hitter during the World Series. Then, despite starting 1997 by hitting .373/.471/.542 mostly from the leadoff slot, the reigning rookie of the year was dropped all the way to seventh when Tim Raines was activated from the disabled list. Following a prolonged slump at the bottom of the order, Jeter eventually resurfaced back at the top. In 1998, the acquisition of Chuck Knoblauch led to Jeter’s installation as the permanent number two hitter, where he remained for most of the next six seasons. When Alfonso Soriano was traded after the 2003 season, Jeter was again enlisted to be the leadoff hitter, but that assignment corresponded with one of the worst slumps of his career. Bernie Williams filled in the first spot for a stretch, but once he regained his swing, Jeter returned to the top and continued leading off for the next two seasons. In 2007 and 2008, Jeter and Johnny Damon swapped slots in the order, and then in 2009, switched once again. So should anyone be surprised that Jeter, who batted leadoff for most of 2010, once again finds himself with an undetermined position in the order?

Continue Reading »

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Yanks, Torre to Reunite on Old Timer’s Day; Could Further Honors Be on the Agenda?

March 18, 2011 by William Juliano

The 1990s Dynasty has its manager back.

Yesterday was a bit of a reunion at Steinbrenner Field as both Johnny Damon and Joe Torre had the chance to renew acquaintances before yesterday’s exhibition game.

Following a three-year estrangement, the Yankees and Joe Torre officially buried the hatchet. According to Torre, the Yankees have already invited him to Old Timer’s Day on June 26, and he has every intention of attending.

Although there had already been some thawing in the relationship when the Yankees invited Torre to attend last year’s George M. Steinbrenner memorial, yesterday’s announcement amounts to a full armistice. Since his departure following the 2007 season, the media, fan base and even the front office seemed to be divided in its sentiments toward Torre. Some viewed the former manager as a martyr who was unfairly treated, while others came to view him as an entitled figure who overstayed his welcome. When Torre released his now infamous “The Yankee Years” before the 2009 season, those factions became even more entrenched. Following yesterday’s detente, however, all parties are now safe to reunite.

That’s water under the bridge, I guess. I never would have changed anything. You wish at the time I left that it could have ended differently, but I don’t know if it could have. I don’t know if either one of us knew how to say goodbye at that point in time.” – Joe Torre, quoted in the New York Daily News, March 18, 2011

The Yankees have never been shy about honoring their legends, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Old Timer’s Day is transformed into a celebration of Torre and his 1996 championship team, which will be celebrating its 15th anniversary. Such an occasion would provide the perfect opportunity to retire Torre’s number 6 and unveil his well deserved plaque in Monument Park. There’s no reason for the Yankees to wait any longer. With last summer’s passing of Ralph Houk, Torre is only one of two living managers to lead the Yankees to a championship, so there’s no point in further postponing the honors he deserves.   Continue Reading »

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Red Sox Shopping Spree Overshadows Yanks’ Full Cupboard

March 16, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

During the spring, the Red Sox have been universally praised for opening up their checkbook in the offseason. Not only did the team acquire slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in a trade with the Padres, but intrepid GM Theo Epstein then blew all other suitors out of the water in his pursuit of Carl Crawford.

Carl Crawford was a centerpiece of the Red Sox offseason rebuilding plans (Photo: Getty Images).

The last time the Yankees went on a similar shopping spree (the 2009 offseason acquisitions of A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira), the team wasn’t exactly lauded for its excess. The Yankees have long been a popular target for resentment, so the backlash wasn’t unexpected. The real irony, however, stems from the criticism GM Brian Cashman has received because didn’t make a big splash this offseason. In this regard, the team really is the Damn Yankees: they are damned when they spend, and damned when they don’t.

Based on the relative offseason activity (or inactivity in the Yankees’ case) of the two rivals, most “experts” have all but handed the division to the Red Sox. In fact, in his latest attempt to explain why he went to Philadelphia, Cliff Lee even cited Boston’s improvements as a deterrent to signing in New York. Of course, what Lee and so many others seem to be ignoring is the Yankees didn’t need either Gonzalez or Crawford because they already possessed comparable talent.

The comparison between Gonzalez and Teixeira is an easy one. Both players are slick fielding, power hitting first basemen who are widely regarded as cornerstone clubhouse guys. In other words, they are the type of player around whom you can build a championship. Not surprisingly, their statistics are also very similar. Over the last five seasons, Teixeira’s wOBA of .391 has been a tick better than Gonzalez’ rate of .373, but all things considered, it’s hard to give one player an advantage over the other. Continue Reading »

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Role Play: Rangers Smart to Let Feliz Write His Own Script

March 15, 2011 by William Juliano

Yesterday was a big news day for closers. Unfortunately for the Oakland Athletics, the headliner was Andrew Bailey, who exited his spring outing against the Indians in obvious pain and now has a planned visit with Dr. James Andrews. Another closer who made waves was the Texas Rangers’ Neftali Feliz, but injury wasn’t the culprit. Rather, Feliz gave reporters something to write about when he reversed an earlier decision by stating that he would now prefer to be a starter.

Considering the Rangers’ other starting rotation candidates, it’s probably a good thing Feliz had a change of heart. Cliff Lee’s offseason flight to the Phillies was widely regarded as a blow to the New York Yankees, but in reality, the most significant impact was to the Rangers. Not only does Texas now need to round out three slots in the rotation, but the team must also depend upon the continued resurgence of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis at the top. In other words, if Feliz returns to being a closer, there might not be many games to save.

Texas Rangers’ 2011 Starting Rotation Candidates

Players ERA IP H R BB K
Neftali Feliz 1.00 9 6 1 4 9
Matt Harrison 1.00 9 5 1 2 5
Eric Hurley 1.00 9 4 1 2 5
Michael Kirkman 3.00 9 7 4 2 8
Colby Lewis 4.00 9 9 5 5 6
CJ Wilson 5.00 9 11 6 3 6
Tommy Hunter 8.31 8 2/3 15 11 1 10
David Bush 4.50 8 9 4 4 5
Derek Holland 1.80 5 5 1 0 6

Source: MLB.com

To the Rangers’ credit, the organization hasn’t tried to pigeon hole their hard throwing right hander into the role of closer just because he recorded 40 saves in his rookie season. On the other hand, it also hasn’t insisted that Feliz set his sights on the rotation just because doing so would satisfy a greater need. Instead, the club’s decision makers have correctly identified both roles as viable options and given proper deference to the right hander’s opinion. The same approach worked with Wilson, so why not try it again?

Your heart has to be in it. It matters what [Feliz] thinks because he is the one who has to do the job. We want him to be committed.” – Ron Washington, quoted by MLB.com

If the Yankees made one mistake in how they handled Joba Chamberlain, it was their failure to effectively communicate with him. Not only did Chamberlain seem to have little input into the role he would perform, but he also seemed to be in the dark regarding the implementation. There were many times when the “Joba Rules” were as much a mystery to the pitcher as the fans and reporters watching in the stands. Although that doesn’t necessarily excuse Chamberlain’s regression, it surely didn’t ease his development. Continue Reading »

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Less for Moorad: The Limitations of Being a Minority Owner

March 13, 2011 by William Juliano

Before buying a majority stake in the Houston Astros, John McMullen was a limited owner of the New York Yankees. When asked to describe his role with the team, McMullen once famously said, “There’s nothing so limited as a limited partner of George Steinbrenner.” In truth, the same could be said for just about any sports franchise.

Over the last two seasons, Jeff Moorad has been a minority owner of two different major league baseball teams, both of which happen to compete in the same division. After resigning his post as CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009, Moorad led a group that purchased 35% of the San Diego Padres from majority owner John Moores. In 2010, Moorad’s group increased its stake in the Padres to 49%, but Moorad himself retained a not insignificant 8% share of the Diamondbacks.

Fortunately, that’s another issue I don’t have to worry about.” – Commissioner Bud Selig, speaking about the sale of Jeff Moorad’s minority stake in the Diamondbacks

In a recent interview, Bud Selig confirmed that this odd conflict of interest was finally resolved when the Diamondback’s current ownership group purchased Moorad’s 8% stake. According to a MLB.com report, the Ken Kendrick-led partnership paid $21 million to absorb Moorad’s stake in the Diamondbacks. Considering Forbes recently valued the team at $379 million, the price received by Moorad amounts to an over 30% discount (a price that basically amounts to value net of debt). Although it’s possible that the Forbes’ valuation was inflated, the low-ball price paid by Kendrick’s group makes you wonder if Selig exerted pressure on Moorad to divest before another season began.

Continue Reading »

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Room Enough for One Sheriff: Conflict with Ryan Leads to Greenberg’s Ouster; Clash Similar to One from Yankees’ Past

March 11, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)

You don’t mess with Nolan Ryan, at least not in Texas. Today, former Rangers’ managing partner and CEO Chuck Greenberg learned that lesson the hard way.

I have great respect for the Texas Rangers franchise and am enormously proud of all we have accomplished together since August. Unfortunately, Nolan Ryan, the co-chairmen and I have somewhat different styles. While I am disappointed we did not work through our differences, I remain wholeheartedly committed to doing what’s right for the franchise.” – Chuck Greenberg, quoted by MLB.com, March 11, 2011

A showdown with Nolan Ryan prompted Chuck Greenberg’s resignation as CEO of the Texas Rangers.

Less than one year ago, Greenberg was an instrumental figure in the long, drawn out and often messy process that resulted in the sale of the Texas Rangers from the Hicks Sports Group to Rangers Baseball Express. Although Greenberg was the leading figure throughout the initial sale process and subsequent bankruptcy court-ordered auction, the name of the ownership group he put together pretty much said everything about where the future of the franchise was headed.

The initial plan was to have Nolan Ryan (the Express) focus on baseball operations, while Greenberg took care of the business side. At first, that formula seemed to be working well. In the couple of months they ran the team together, Greenberg scored a number of business successes, including a new lucrative cable TV contract, while Ryan oversaw a roster reconstruction that culminated in the franchise’s first trip to the World Series. Soon thereafter, however, it seems as if egos got in the way and the partnership fell apart.

According to an MLB.com report, the first sign of friction occurred when Greenberg injected himself into the team’s pursuit of Cliff Lee. Unhappy with the blurring the lines of their division of power, Ryan reportedly objected to Greenberg’s increased profile on the baseball side of operations, and that dispute resulted in the latter’s resignation.

Greenberg’s decision reportedly comes after weeks of attempted mediation. After that process failed, it seems as if Ryan laid down an ultimatum, thereby forcing the team’s two largest investors, Ray Davis and Bob Simpson, to make a choice. Davis is from Dallas and Simpson is from Ft. Worth. Needless to say, the New Jersey-born Greenberg probably didn’t stand a chance. If there was only going to be room for one sheriff on the Rangers, you can bet it wasn’t going to be the east coast lawyer.

Whether or not he was treated fairly, Yankees’ fans aren’t likely to have sympathy for Greenberg. After all, when he wasn’t criticizing the denizens of Yankee Stadium for being uncivilized, he was exulting in the role he played steering Cliff Lee to Philadelphia. It remains to be seen if those high-profile incidents contributed to Greenberg’s demise, but many in New York will undoubtedly enjoy the karma.

Greenberg and Ryan are going separate ways after attempts to reconcile their differences failed.

The friction between Ryan and Greenberg really isn’t that unique. In fact, a very similar situation occurred when George M. Steinbrenner purchased the Yankees from CBS back in 1973.

When the Yankees’ sale was made official on January 4, 1973, the AP headline read “Burke Heads Syndicate Buying New York Yankees”. Burke referred to Michael Burke, who served as Yankees President when the team was owned by CBS. At the time of the sale, Burke’s role as matchmaker between Steinbrenner and CBS head William Paley was vital. Some have even argued that Steinbrenner would not have been able to buy the Yankees without his intervention. This claim is supported by a story from Bill Madden’s recent book, “Steinbrenner: The Last Lion of Baseball”, in which Paley cited Burke’s continuation with the team as an important consideration of the deal.

“Mr. Paley. I can assure you we wouldn’t want to it any other way…I won’t have much time for baseball, so Mike’ll have to carry the load…He’s Mr. Yankee, and that’s a helluva asset for us”. – George M. Steinbrenner, quoted in “Steinbrenner: The Last Lion of Baseball”

Continue Reading »

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