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Tragedy Touches Baseball World

January 9, 2011 by William Juliano

The senseless violence in Tuscon, Arizon that claimed six lives and sent shockwaves throughout the nation’s political system has also exacted a painful toll on major league baseball. According to now confirmed reports, Christina-Taylor Green, the nine year-old girl killed during yesterday’s horrific tragedy, was the daughter of Dodgers’ scout John Green and granddaughter of Phillies’ executive advisor and former manager Dallas Green.

The Phillies organization expresses our heartfelt condolences to Dallas and Sylvia and the entire Green family on the senseless, tragic loss of Christina’s life. She was a talented young girl with a bright promising future. Her untimely death weighs heavily on our hearts. Our thoughts and prayers are with all the families affected by yesterday’s horrific shooting.” – Phillies team president David Montgomery, quoted in an official team statement

“We lost a member of the Dodgers family today. The entire Dodgers organization is mourning the death of John’s daughter Christina, and will do everything we can to support John, his wife, Roxanna, and their son, Dallas, in the aftermath of this senseless tragedy. I spoke with John earlier today and expressed condolences on behalf of the entire Dodgers organization.” – Dodgers Owner Frank McCourt, quoted on MLB.com

Posted in Baseball, Crime, Culture, MLB | Tagged | 1 Comment »

Mistaken Identity: Local Paper Throws Cubs a Curve

January 8, 2011 by William Juliano

Exactly whom did the Cubs acquire from the Rays in yesterday’s eight-player deal? According to most reputable sources, Tampa agreed to send Matt Garza to Chicago, but at least one Windy City newspaper seems to disagree.

According to the back page of the Chicago Sun-Times (h/t to Rays’ play-by-play man Dave Wills, @SPTimesRays and several retweets on Twitter), the Cubs actually acquired relief pitcher Joaquin Benoit. Talent evaluators around the major leagues had been debating the overall quality of prospects that the Rays received, but in light of this new development, it turns out that Tampa made out like a bandit. You see, Benoit is no longer on the team, having signed a three-year deal with the Tigers back in November. Rays’ GM Andrew Freidman has frequently been cited as one of the best in all of sports, but acquiring five prospects for a player not even on his roster is the ultimate master stroke.

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Wild Thing: Alcoholism, Not Throwing Strikes, Was Duren’s Real Control Problem

January 8, 2011 by William Juliano

On January 6, former Yankees relief pitcher Ryne Duren passed away at the age of 81.

Dark glasses and a wild fastball were trademarks of Ryne Duren.

Duren was the original wild thing. Thanks to the combination of a power arm and poor eyesight, the fire balling right hander ranked as one of the most intimidating pitchers in all of baseball, mostly because he often had no idea where the ball was going.

Instead of feeling limited by his poor eyesight, Duren would sometimes use the handicap to his advantage. According to legend, the right hander would fire a “warning shot” by purposely throwing an errant pitch during warmups. Whether intentional or not, seeing Duren, who wore thick-framed glasses that covered his face, pepper the backstop with explosive fastballs had to make the waiting batter think twice about getting too comfortable at the plate.

Ryne Duren likes to fire his first warm-up pitch into the dirt or eight feet above the catcher’s head. Then he squints his thick glasses at Yogi Berra with a puzzled expression that says, ‘Funny, I could have sworn there was a plate around there somewhere.’” – Red Smith, The New York Herald Tribune, November 9, 1958  

Being wild wasn’t an act for Duren. His inability to consistently throw the ball over the plate forced the talented right hander to spend the better part of his 20s in the minor leagues. From 1949 until 1957, when he was acquired by the Yankees from the Athletics, Duren pitched 1,448 1/3 innings in the minors…and walked 1,079 batters along the way! At the start of his career as a 20 year-old with the St. Louis Brown’s Wausau affiliate in the Wisconsin State League, Duren walked 12.1 batters per game, but his impressive fastball, which was rumored to top out over 100mph, ensured that he would be given an extended chance to develop.

Wild Things: Pitchers with the Most BBs and HBPs in 600 or Fewer Innings

Player HBP IP   Player BB IP
Brian Fuentes 47 525   Ryne Duren 392 589.1
Ed Doheny 45 561.2   Grover Lowdermilk 376 590.1
Juan Cruz 43 570.2   Brian Williams 332 595.1
Mike Myers 43 541.2   Juan Cruz 299 570.2
Ryan Rupe 42 476.2   Whitey Moore 292 513.1
Trever Miller 41 502   Mike Cvengros 285 551.1
Ryne Duren 41 589.1   Felix Rodriguez 283 586.1
Johnny Cueto 37 531   Blake Stein 281 475.2
Grover Lowdermilk 37 590.1   Daisuke Matsuzaka 278 585.1
C.J. Nitkowski 36 479   Bucky Brandon 275 590

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Over his lengthy stay in the minors, the wild right hander gradually refined his command, but his greatest strides were made in 1956 with the Orioles’ Vancouver Mounties affiliate in the Pacific Coast League. At Vancouver, Duren shaved two walks per game off his previous season’s total, finally achieving a respectable rate of 3.8. The following year, while pitching for the Yankees’ PCL team in Denver, the emerging right hander improved further to 2.6 walks per game. A promotion to the big leagues was finally within Duren’s grasp.

Lefty O’Doul had me at Vancouver. He taught me not to aim for the center of the plate, but for the corner of the strike zone. So, if I aim for the left corner, say, and the pitch sails to the right, I correct my aim like a rifle site that’s off.” – Ryne Duren, quoted by Brush-Moore Special Writer Ed Nichols on March 13, 1959

In 1954 and 1957, Duren pitched briefly in the majors, but his real breakthrough came with the Yankees in 1958. After opening eyes in Spring Training, Duren made the team, emerged as its top reliever and ended the year with a win and save in the World Series. In addition to making the All Star team, Duren also finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting and 22nd in the MVP tally. Not bad for a pitcher who had toiled for so long in the minors because of his inability to throw strikes.

Duren before a game at Yankee Stadium in 1958 (Photo:AP).

Despite having such a strong season, Duren’s wildness was still evident, but his erratic behavior extended beyond balls and strikes. During the 1958 season, the Yankees new relief ace developed the reputation of being a headhunter. In a game on July 19, 1958, he plunked Kansas City Athletics’ outfielder Bob Cerv immediately after surrendering a three-run homer to Bill Tuttle in the 12th inning of a tie game. In an interview with Kansas City Star writer Joe McGuff, Cerv accused Duren of intentionally targeting him. In the same article, McGuff also wrote about the growing animosity toward Duren that was building around the league and sarcastically suggested, “The American League would do well to assign a fifth umpire to the games that Ryne Duren pitches. The duty would be to count for the knockdowns.”

The American League never took action, but only days later, the Detroit Tigers did. Earlier in the game on July 24, Duren dusted Al Kaline with his first pitch, so when he finally came to the plate three innings later, Paul Foytack exacted revenge. The pitch hit Duren squarely on the left side of the face, leaving him sprawled upon the ground until he could be carried off the field and taken to the hospital. The right hander wound up missing the next 10 days, but, almost as if to let the league now he would not be intimidated, plunked the next to last batter in his first game back. And, for good measure, Duren hit four more batters before the end of the season.

Hitting opposing batters wasn’t Duren’s only problem. In September 1958, he also took a swing at one of his coaches. Unfortunately for Duren, he decided to tangle with Ralph Houk, his former manager in Denver who also happened to be an Army Ranger during World War II. According to published reports, the Major got the better of the brawl, leaving Duren with a bloodied eye and a bruised ego. “Duren can’t drink,” Houk told AP, “He’s a Jekyl and Hyde”.

This shouldn’t happen. You get whiskey slick and then you fight with your own.” – Yankees Manager Casey Stengel, quoted by AP, September 17, 1958

Houk couldn’t have been more right. You see, Duren was an alcoholic whose real battle was not controlling an explosive fastball, but handling his drinking problem. After 1958, Duren had one more dominant season with the Yankees, but thereafter mostly struggled to make an impact. At the same time, his life was also spiraling out of control.

Duren’s final season was in 1965 with the Washington Senators. By that time, he was completely ravaged by alcoholism. So, after a rough outing against the White Sox, he knocked back a few drinks, climbed atop a bridge overlooking the Potomac River and threatened to jump. The police were eventually able to talk him down, but Duren was still far from hitting rock bottom. According to the Los Angeles Times’ Jim Murray, following his subsequent release by the Senators, “[Duren] went from the penthouse to the flophouse. From Yankee Stadium to a mental institution. From World Series checks to raiding his insurance money.” His career was over; his life not too far behind.

The old time Yankees were tough outs. But for Rhino, the real Murders Row lineup consisted of Scotch Rocks, Cutty Water, Vin Rose, Seven Seven, Three Fingers Bourbon and the all-time cleanup hitter, One Martini. Ryne Duren’s dark glasses didn’t scare them all. They hit him like they owned him. Because they did”. – Jim Murray, The Los Angeles Times, July 17, 1978

Ryne Duren not only overcame his addiction, but spent the rest of his life helping others do the same. In addition to directing alcohol education and recovery programs near his hometown in Wisconsin, Duren also told the story of his recovery in two autobiographies, “The Comeback” (1978) and “I Can See Clearly Now” (2003). In 1998, he also helped start Winning Beyond Winning, a foundation dedicated to helping athletes derive physical and psychological benefits from competition.

After years of trying to find the strike zone, Duren finally found himself. Although his contribution as a player was marginal, his impact as a man was significant. Duren’s coke bottle glasses may have been intimidating at one time, but the clearer vision he later developed proved to be the real inspiration.

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged , | 1 Comment »

Addition By Subtraction: As Yanks Prepare to “Go On” Without Pettitte, Road to Playoffs Seems to Get Easier

January 7, 2011 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeU.)

On the same day Andy Pettitte reportedly told the Yankees “to go on without him”, the Tampa Rays delivered the same message to Matt Garza.

Could both the Yankees and Rays be better off with Matt Garza in Chicago?

In an eight-player deal with the Chicago Cubs, the Rays sent Garza to the Windy City in exchange for five second-tier prospects (none of the prospects ranked in either Baseball America’s or Keith Law’s preseason Top-100 list, and only SS Lee Hak-Ju ranked among Law’s top-10 Cubs’ minor leaguers), which for some Yankees’ fans might be perceived as another missed opportunity by Brian Cashman. Of course, such sentiment ignores the Rays likely unwillingness to deal Garza within the division, but the fact remains that yet another starter has changed teams while the Yankees continue to stand pat.

Ironically, although the Yankees continue to remain patient, today’s trade of Garza actually increases their chances of making the playoffs by further weakening one of their most formidable competitors. Despite having a depleted starting rotation, and having to contend with a reloaded Red Sox team, the Yankees will probably enter 2011 with a better chance of making the post season than they did last year. Unless a surprise team emerges from the Central or West divisions (and those teams haven’t done much to improve themselves), the Yankees could face less competition for the wild card, which would allow Cashman to continue biding his time until the right deal comes along.

From the Ray’s perspective, trading Garza isn’t exactly a bad move, even if the prospects they received from the Cubs are less than impressive. Because he is eligible for arbitration, Garza is looking at a very healthy raise that could take his salary to around $6 million. Although Tampa has spent most of the offseason shedding salary, and therefore should have payroll flexibility, such an expenditure could prove to be unpalatable to a team in the process of retrenching.  Assuming the Rays believe they can not contend in the short run, it makes all the sense in the world to turn over a rotation spot to Jeremy Hellickson, shed as much payroll as possible, and accumulate prospects and draft picks in the process.

It should also be noted that Garza’s reputation seems to be a notch beyond his actual performance. Instead of being the ace that many portrayals have suggested, Garza is really more of a middle of the rotation arm. Last season, Garza’s ERA+ was a league average 101, and he ranked 77th among qualified starters with a WAR of 1.8, just behind the Phillies’ Joe Blanton. Over a three-year period beginning in 2008, Garza’s WAR of 7.9 was good for 41st among 67 comparables. Granted, simply qualifying for that comparison usually implies a level of competence needed to accumulate enough innings, but the fact remains that Garza is not an elite-level pitcher.

The point is not to malign Garza. After all, a slightly above league average starter (especially one who pitches in the AL East) capable of throwing 200-plus innings is very valuable. He just isn’t a difference maker. However, the underlying philosophy that his trade represents very well could be. If the Yankees find themselves in the post season this year, the deciding factor may not turn out to be the Brain Cashman master stroke for which so many fans have patiently been awaiting. Rather, what other teams in the American League are doing could end up having a greater impact on the Yankees than their own inaction. Think of it as addition by other team’s subtraction.

Yankees’ and Rays’ Key “Subtractions”

Rays WAR   Yankees WAR
Carl Crawford 6.9   Andy Pettitte 2.3
Matt Garza 1.8   Marcus Thames 0.6
Rafael Soriano 1.6   Kerry Wood 0.4
Joaquin Benoit 1.5   Javier Vazquez -0.2
Grant Balfour 1.2      
Jason Bartlett 0.7      
Total 13.7   Total 3.1

Source: Fangraphs.com

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With Blyleven Elected, Who’s Next? Raines In Line for Support of “Zealots”

January 6, 2011 by William Juliano

Now that Bert Blyleven has finally been welcomed into the Hall of Fame, the small coterie of Internet zealots can now shift their attention to another deserving, but overlooked candidate.

There are more than a few deserving players left over from yesterday’s election, but it’s not exactly clear who needs the most help. Barry Larkin is perhaps the most deserving of the remaining options, but he is all but assured of a coronation at some point in the near future. Therefore, he really doesn’t need any help from the minions of stat crunchers who dare to be objective. So, if not Larkin, than whom?

Since the BBWAA started conducting annual ballots in 1966, 71 Hall of Famers have been inducted by the writers. Of that total, 37 were honored with a “first ballot” election, while 34 were forced to endure varying degrees of suspense (included in this latter group is Red Ruffing, who in 1967 was selected as the result of a run-off, a part of the process discontinued thereafter).

Breakdown of Hall of Fame Selections by Year of Eligibility

Source: Baseball-reference.com

As evidenced by the chart above, it becomes increasingly difficult to earn a nod from the BBWAA as the years pass. Since 1966, there have been 663 unique candidates considered for election, of which only 5% have been enshrined after being passed over in their first year of eligibility. In other words, the first impression given by a player usually dictates their chances for election. Recently, however, we’ve seen more “long-term” candidates overcome low vote totals in their initial years of eligibility. An evolving understanding of statistics as well as an increased appreciation for more limited roles (i.e., relief pitchers) has likely been a part of this reversing trend, but in general, a candidate’s road to Cooperstown continues to get steep with each subsequent election.

So, outside of falling off the ballot completely, is there a vote percentage that effectively amounts to a death sentence for candidates in their first year of eligibility? The average first ballot score for the 34 Hall of Famers who did not win immediate selection was 40.2%. However, if you remove six players whose first year of eligibility occurred before 1966, the average rises to 46.2%. The median of that more select group is still higher at 50%.

That data won’t be encouraging to this year’s first timers. Of the 19 candidates making their ballot debut, only four received the minimum 5% needed for future consideration. From that quartet, only Jeff Bagwell recorded a respectable total, but even his 41.7% (which is almost identical to the total earned by Steve Garvey in his inaugural year on the ballot) falls below the first ballot average of multi-year candidates who eventually made the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, Bagwell’s first year total ranks third among non-Hall of Famers, behind only Larkin and Lee Smith at 51.6% and 42.3%, respectively. Considering Larkin’s likelihood of being elected, Bagwell seems to be in a gray area. Perhaps a future electorate more enlightened about PEDs will give him a boost, but regardless, Bagwell seems assured of facing an uphill battle.

In addition to Bagwell, there are seven others players for whom one can make a strong argument (Alan Trammell, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Barry Larkin, Larry Walker and Edgar Martinez) as well as two other candidates who have received solid support over several years on the ballot (Lee Smith and Jack Morris).

2011 Hall of Fame Ballot “Holdovers”

Player YoB % of Vote WAR
Jeff Bagwell 1st 41.7% 79.9
Barry Larkin 2nd 62.1% 68.9
Larry Walker 1st 20.3% 67.3
Edgar Martinez 2nd 32.9% 67.2
Alan Trammell 10th 24.3% 66.9
Rafael Palmeiro 1st 11.0% 66
Tim Raines 4th 37.5% 64.6
Mark McGwire 5th 19.8% 63.1
Jack Morris 12th 53.5% 39.3
Lee Smith 9th 45.3% 29.7

Source: Baseball-reference.com

As previously mentioned, Larkin is not only the most deserving of all holdover candidates, but also the most likely to eventually win election. Meanwhile, like Bagwell, McGwire and Palmeiro have to overcome the electorate’s steroid aversion before making a significant jump, so the merits of their candidacies must continue to take a backseat. Digging further, Morris and Smith really don’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, while Walker (Coors Field) and Martinez (career DH) both have issues that give pause. So, after whittling down the list, Trammell and Raines remain as the candidates most deserving of a concerted advocacy campaign.

Current Candidates Yearly Vote Progression Compared to All Non-First Ballot Hall of Famers
Source: Baseball-reference.com

As illustrated in the chart above, only Larkin’s vote total is above the average and median pace of other Hall of Famers who failed to win election on their first ballot. Every other player’s most recent vote total stands well below the milestone that is relative to their current year of eligibility. Unfortunately, both Raines and Trammell remain far off the pace, but it is really the latter’s candidacy that faces the most peril. With only five years left of consideration, the former Tigers’ shortstop finds himself over 30% behind the average and median vote totals that would foreshadow an eventual selection. At this point, Trammell’s election would require such an unprecedented about face from the BBWAA that his candidacy seems to be a lost cause. As a result, we are left with Raines as the best candidate upon which to mount a new Hall of Fame campaign.

Although Raines respectively stands 10% and 20% below the average and median milestone vote percentages, all hope is not lost. Over the past two cycles, he has experienced a considerable bump of approximately 7% in each.  If Raines were to enjoy similar support over the next two elections, he would suddenly be on pace for induction.  Of course, continuing the momentum is key, which is exactly why Raines seems to be the ideal candidate for a focused effort on the part of those who use knowledge as influence. Hopefully, the Rock will find his very own Rich Lederer sooner than later.

Posted in Baseball, Hall of Fame, MLB, Yankees | Tagged , , , | Leave a Comment »

Better to Be Lucky; Or How the Yankees Tried to Trade Robinson Cano, but Failed

January 5, 2011 by William Juliano

Ten years ago today, the Yankees signed Robinson Cano as an amateur free agent out of San Pedro de Marcoris in the Dominican Republic. Then a shortstop, Cano’s signing was unheralded at the time. In fact, a search of Google’s newspaper database reveals that the first print mention of the young infielder didn’t occur until September 9, 2001, when the Brooklyn Cyclones met Cano’s Staten Island Yankees in the New York-Penn League playoffs (there was one prior report that stated Cano had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers).

Robinson Cano started out as a shortstop for the Staten Island Yankees before making it as an All Star 2B in the Bronx.

From the day he signed until his major league debut on May 3, 2005, Cano was really never considered a blue chip prospect. Baseball America never included him in their top-100 prospect lists, and most published reports referred to him in less than glowing terms. In fact, it seems as if even the Yankees weren’t very impressed, which might explain why he was rumored to be included in just about every deal the team considered in the early part of the decade.

The first mention of Cano’s name in trade rumors was in the New York Post on July 27, 2003. At the time, the Yankees were reportedly discussing a deal with the Reds that involved Ken Griffey Jr. The rumored cost was struggling right hander Jeff Weaver along with a prospect from among a group that included Cano, Alex Graman, Jorge De Paula and Juan Rivera. The validity of the rumor was rendered moot when Griffey sustained an injury on July 17 that ended his 2003 campaign.

After Aaron Boone sustained a serious knee injury while playing basketball in the 2003 offseason, Cano once again found his name bandied about in several trade rumors. Almost immediately following the injury announcement, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune wrote of a rumored three way deal between the Yankees, Angels and White Sox that would have sent Troy Glaus to New York. In exchange, the Yankees would have sent Cano and fellow infield prospect Joaquin Arias to Chicago and Anaheim (who would also have swapped Paul Konerko and Jose Valentin for Jarrod Washburn and Darin Erstad). That deal apparently fell through, which was a good thing for the Yankees because less than one month later the team acquired Alex Rodriguez in a blockbuster deal with the Texas Rangers. In exchange for Arod, the Yankees sent All Star second baseman Alfonso Soriano to Texas, and also allowed the Rangers to select from a list of prospects that once again included Arias and Cano. Luckily, the Rangers selected the younger Arias, and Baseball America’s scouting reports at the time seemed to agree with that decision.

Although Cano survived the offseason, his name remained a fixture in trade talks throughout 2004. The most persistent rumor involved Cano being part of a package for Kansas City Royals’ centerfielder Carlos Beltran, who was eventually traded to the Houston Astros. As early as June, the New York Daily News reported that Yankees had moved Cano to third base at the request of Royals’ scouts, who wanted to watch the potential trade target play that position. Around the same time, the Daily News also reported that the Mariners might be scouting Cano for a potential deal that could include either Freddie Garcia or Jamie Moyer. However, the Mariners rejected a Yankee offer that included Cano and instead opted to trade Garcia to the White Sox for Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse. Finally by the end of June, the newspaper had Cano being evaluated by the Atlanta Braves in a deal for Russ Ortiz.

With just about every team scouting Cano in the summer of 2004, it’s a wonder he remained with the organization past the trade deadline. During that timeframe, Cano was also rumored to be part of a trade with the Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson. So, when the two teams resumed negotiations after the season, it seemed all but assured that Cano would finally be packing his bags. However, after months of contentious discussion, the Yankees evenutally agreed to send Javier Vazquez along with prospects Dioner Navarro and Brad Halsey to Arizona for the Big Unit. Once again, Cano managed to stay put.

Yankees’ fans and officials are all smiles because several attempts to trade Cano eventually fell through.

Despite failing to trade Cano in the offseason, the Yankees still seemed reticent to give their 22-year old prospect a chance to make the team. So, instead, they signed Tony Womack to play second base, one of the team’s more ill advised decisions under Brian Cashman’s tenure as GM (which is saying a lot considering that same offseason included lucrative deals for pitchers Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright). Ironically, however, Womack’s utter futility eventually forced the Yankees to promote Cano to the major leagues by May 2005, after which there was no looking back for the young second baseman.

Within days of Cano’s ascension to the majors, talent evaluators around the game were suddenly praising his abilities. The scouts that once seemed to doubt his defense or patience at the plate were now heralding his smooth swing, strong arm and athletic ability. Privately, many in the Yankees’ organization expressed gratitude that the team had been unable to trade their burgeoning new star.

Thank God we didn’t trade him. Imagine if he was doing this for someone else? We’d never hear the end of it.” – Anonymous Yankees’ official, New York Daily News, July 29, 2005

I’m so happy they didn’t trade me. I love this team.” – Robinson Cano, New York Daily News, July 29, 2005

Before truly breaking out with an MVP caliber season in 2010, Cano had his ups and downs along the way to stardom. In fact, after a disappointing 2008 season, the second baseman once again found himself at the center of trade rumors, which this time had him going to the Dodgers for centerfielder Matt Kemp. As in the past, Cano remained with the Yankees and returned to his All Star form the next season.

Cano is the epitome of the old adage that states the best trades are the ones you don’t make. With Cano, however, that old bromide has been taken to an absurd extreme. Not only should the Yankees consider themselves fortunate that they never dealt away a man who is now arguably their best player, but countless teams around baseball should also be kicking themselves for failing to snatch him from New York.

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Baseball, MLB, Trades, Yankees | Tagged | 13 Comments »

Better Late Than Never: A Look at the Hall of Fame’s Longest Suffering Candidates

January 4, 2011 by William Juliano

The Hall of Fame voting results will be announced tomorrow and there is a growing consensus that Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven will be elected. Alomar’s selection seems mostly likely because his exclusion last year probably resulted from the misguided (and unfortunately persistent) sentiment that seeks to uphold the sanctity of a first ballot coronation (after all, if every voter held the same philosophy, extremely qualified candidates would drop off the ballot after failing to reach the minimum threshold of 5%). Blyleven’s potential induction, however, would be the culmination of a long campaign that has attracted many tireless advocates, particularly in what has become known as the sabremetric community. Long overlooked because of his less than stellar showing in more primitive measures of pitching ability, Blyleven’s candidacy has slowly gained traction as a wider acceptance and understanding of advanced statistical concepts have emerged.

Regardless of where you come down on the old school/new school statistical debate, Blyleven’s selection would be historic in terms of how long he had to wait to get elected. This year marks Blyleven’s 14th time on the ballot, so if he once again falls short, he’d only have one year left of consideration. However, if he does finally get the needed 75% of the total vote, he would become only the second player to be enshrined by the baseball writers after waiting at least 14 years. In 2009, Jim Rice finally crossed the finished line in his 15th and final year of eligibility. Before Rice’s election, Bruce Sutter joined Ralph Kiner as the “longest suffering” Hall of Famer when he was elected in 2006 on his 13th attempt.

Hall of Famers with Most Years on BBWAA Ballot

Player Year Elected Years on Ballot
Ralph Kiner 1975 13
Bob Lemon 1976 12
Duke Snider 1980 11
Don Drysdale 1984 10
Tony Perez 2000 9
Bruce Sutter 2006 13
Rich Gossage 2008 9
Jim Rice 2009 15
Andre Dawson 2010 9
Bert Blyleven ? 14
Jack Morris ? 12

Note: Only players elected since 1967, when BBWAA first adopted annual votes, are included.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and baseballhall.org/hall-famers

Of the 109 players elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA (104 in regular elections, three in runoffs and two in special elections), only nine have needed at least nine years (60% of the allowed tenure) on the ballot. However, four of those cases have come in the last five years (and, if Blyleven is elected, it would be five in the last six years). Is this a sign of Hall of Fame voters becoming more liberal? Perhaps it is the growing ranks of the BBWAA that has given long-time candidates a second life? Or, could it be something much more subtle like a backlash by older voters against the modern statistics espoused by younger counterparts? In the case of Rice, that seems like a plausible theory, but the steady progress of Blyleven puts that conspiracy to rest.

Interestingly, another four cases were also clustered in one 10-year period from 1975 to 1984. In that era, however, it seems as if the combination of a candidate backlog, adaptation to annual elections in 1967 and the recent retirements of several superstars conspired to prolong the candidacies of more than a few overqualified players. It’s shocking to see that Ralph Kiner and Duke Snider had to wait 13 and 11 years, respectively, for enshrinement, but it becomes a little more understandable when you look at preceding years’ results. In the case of Kiner, his election in 1975 was preceded by the selection of Mickey Mantle in 1974, Warren Spahn in 1973 and Sandy Koufax and Yogi Berra in 1972. Snider, meanwhile, had to wait through all of those elections as well as Willie Mays in 1979, Eddie Mathews in 1978 and Ernie Banks in 1977.

Looking at the recent group of long-time candidates, an opposite phenomenon might be true. Instead of having to wade through too many qualified options, it seems as if the voters may be too eager to find suitable candidates, either because of a lull in the process or the exclusion of those players suspected of using PEDs (e.g., Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Jeff Bagwell). That might help explain why players like Rice and Andre Dawson gradually enjoyed increased support. After all, Rice’s and Dawson’s candidacies occurred during the “steroid era”, so if you discount the numbers being produced during that time, the relative performance of players from the previous generation would appear more impressive. Also, in the cases of Sutter and Rich Gossage, the evolving role of the relief pitcher and increasing acceptance of its importance may have helped get each candidate over the hump.

Vote Progression of “Long-Term” Candidates


Note: Year refers to either the most recent recorded vote total or date of election.
Source: Sean Lahman database, Baseball-reference.com and baseballhall.org/hall

Unfortunately, at the same time that BBWAA seems poised to right a wrong by electing Bert Blyleven, they are also inching toward electing Jack Morris, who would rival Rice as one of the writers’ poorest choices. The interesting thing about Morris’ candidacy is it has lacked the one big bump that most long-term nominees experience. With the exception of Tony Perez, who debuted at a relatively high 50%, every Hall of Fame who spent at least nine years on the ballot enjoyed at least one year with a 10% spike in support. To date, Morris’ largest increase has been the 8.3% increase experienced last year. If Morris is to be elected, he will need to have his breakthrough soon because none of the other similar candidates have had a vote total as low as his in their 11th year of consideration.

Finally, looking at things from the flip side, if Blyleven fails to win election and drops off the writers’ ballot after 2012, he would hold the distinction of having the second highest vote total without being elected (74.2% in 2010) by the writers. In 1985, Nellie Fox dropped off the BBWAA’s ballot after receiving 74.7% in his final year of eligibility. Fox eventually was elected by the Veteran’s Committee in 1997, so even if Blyleven continues to get the snub from the writers, the doors of the Hall might still be opened to him some day.

Players with Highest Vote Total Not Elected by BBWAA

Player Highest Total Year Result
Nellie Fox 74.7% 1985 Elected by VC in 1997.
Bert Blyleven 74.2% 2010 Still eligible.
Jim Bunning 74.2% 1988 Elected by VC in 1996.
Orlando Cepeda 73.5% 1994 Elected by VC in 1999.
Frank Chance 72.5% 1945 Elected by OTC in 1946.

Note: Bunning’s highest total was recorded in 12th year of eligibility.
Source: Sean Lahman database, Baseball-reference.com and baseballhall.org/hall-famers

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