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Kepner’s Jack Morris Contradiction Hinges on “Magic” Moment

January 3, 2011 by William Juliano

After being fooled by 2B Chuck Knoblauch, Lonnie Smith slides safely into 3B. Had Smith read the play properly, he would have scored the go-ahead run in the 8th inning of game 7 of the 1991 World Series (Photo: SI).

In a recent article, Tyler Kepner gradually builds a convincing argument against Jack Morris’ Hall of Fame candidacy, but then reverses course because of the outcome of one World Series game.

It’s hard to criticize Kepner’s position because he acknowledges most of the key points made against Morris. In other words, he seems to understand why such a “large segment of fans and bloggers” vehemently oppose his candidacy.  However, despite conceding most of the negative conclusions regarding Morris’ Hall of Fame worthiness (as well as the contention that Bert Blyleven was a better pitcher), Kepner still manages to conclude with the same head-banging argument advanced by less astute members of the BBWAA.

It is often written that without his 10-inning shutout for the Twins in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, Morris would not get nearly as much support. But he did pitch that game. That’s the whole point. Moments of greatness matter a lot, even though, as tiny slices of time, they rarely say much about the breadth of a player’s career.” – Tyler Kepner, The New York Times, January 3, 2011

To his credit, Kepner does not fall into the trap of allowing one World Series game to define Morris as “clutch”, which is what makes his argument so inexplicable. He doesn’t buy into the Morris myth, but still deems him worthy of the Hall of Fame because of “one moment”. He even concedes that Morris’ historic moment was aided in large part by Lonnie Smith’s baserunning blunder in the eighth inning of the 1991 World Series’ final game, but yet somehow glosses over the implication (i.e., had Smith been a batter baserunner, Morris wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer).

Kepner seems to believe that Morris’ historic moment in the 1991 World Series magically converts his career from very good to Hall of Fame caliber. If that’s the case, there really is no way to refute such a position, especially when the person advancing it not only acknowledges, but concedes the points against it. One game or accomplishment doesn’t make a Hall of Famer, however. That’s why the museum has a Great Moments Room.

It’s a feel thing with Morris, and that’s not always wrong. Emotions mean a lot. We watch the game because we care about it and we want to see who wins the World Series. And if you cared about baseball in Morris’s era, you probably wanted him on the mound when it mattered. – Tyler Kepner, The New York Times, January 3, 2011

In his conclusion, Kepner returns to one of the myths that he actually does a good job dispelling. But, Jack Morris was not “one of the pitchers you wanted on the mound when it mattered most” anymore than Jim Rice was “one of the most feared hitters in the game”. There is no way to support such a position, either with statistics or even references to contemporary accounts. Rather, Morris was involved in a significant moment that too many eligible voters have allowed to cloud their better judgment.

Although the Hall of Fame voting process is  in need of an overhaul, the BBWAA hasn’t exactly done a terrible job. After all, thanks in large part to the high threshold needed for election, the body has avoided making the mistake of enshrining Morris. So, it’s not really the end of the world that a large segment of the voting population has a blind spot when it comes to certain candidates. What is very disappointing, however, is that Kepner, one of the brighter BBWAA members (who, incidentally, as an employee of the New York Times is prohibited from voting for the Hall of Fame), would be a victim.

Posted in Baseball, Hall of Fame, MLB | Tagged , | 2 Comments »

No Room for Seahawks in Baseball’s Playoff Picture

January 3, 2011 by William Juliano

In honor of the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks’ ascension to the playoffs in the “competitively balanced” NFL, listed below are the worst teams to make Major League Baseball’s postseason. Although the enormous difference between both sports’ schedules makes any meaningful comparison difficult, baseball would be wise to consider the potential implications of expanding its playoff system to the same extent as the NFL.

Ten “Worst” MLB Playoff Teams, Ranked by Winning Percentage

Year Team W L W% Finish Outcome
2005 Padres 82 80 0.506 NL West Champ Lost NLDS.
1973 Mets 82 79 0.509 NL East Champ Lost World Series.
2006 Cardinals 83 78 0.516 NL Central Champ Won World Series.
2008 Dodgers 84 78 0.519 NL West Champ Lost NLCS.
1984 Royals 84 78 0.519 AL West Champ Lost ALCS.
1997 Astros 84 78 0.519 NL Central Champ Lost NLDS.
1987 Twins 85 77 0.525 NL West Champ Won World Series.
2007 Cubs 85 77 0.525 NL Central Champ Lost NLDS.
1997 Indians 86 75 0.534 AL Central Champ Lost World Series.
2009 Twins 87 76 0.534 AL Central Champ Lost ALDS.

Note: Excluding the strike-shortened 1981 season in which the schedule was broken down into two separate halves. That year, the Kansas City Royals won the second half AL West title with a 30-23 record, despite going 50-53 overall.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

As evidenced by the chart above, the “worst” playoff teams have not been wild cards, but division leaders. However, seven of these division winners played in the wild card era.  The same scenario also often exists in the NFL, where this year the below-.500 Seahawks advanced to the playoffs ahead of two 10-win teams (New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

In any potential plan to expand its playoffs, baseball would be better off resisting the urge to add more divisions. Although it may seem counter intuitive, a system with more wild cards, not division leaders, would help ensure that the best teams make the playoffs. Unlike the NFL, which has the point spread to help cover up any blemishes in its postseason matchups, baseball relies on the integrity of its playoff system. A couple of teams have already come close to testing the .500 barrier, so when Bud Selig and his committee get around to discussing postseason expansion, their mission should be to ensure that baseball doesn’t wind up with a team like the Seahawks still playing in October.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, NFL, Yankees | Tagged | 1 Comment »

Yankee Numerology: What Does 2011 Have in Store?

January 2, 2011 by William Juliano

While waiting for the 2011 roster to take shape, Yankees’ fans have been forced to rely on other means of predicting the upcoming season. Back in April, we took a look at how the Yankees have performed under different presidential administrations, so in honor of the new year, this time we’ve broken down the team’s track record by year-ending number.

Yankees’ Record By Year-Ending Number

Year Ending W L T PCT RS/G RA/G
0 997 733 9 0.573 5.1 4.4
1 968 741 8 0.564 4.9 4.2
2 968 733 12 0.565 4.8 4.1
3 999 728 12 0.574 4.9 4.1
4 993 731 10 0.573 5.0 4.2
5 906 793 8 0.531 4.6 4.2
6 977 703 11 0.578 4.7 4.0
7 979 722 8 0.573 4.8 4.1
8 932 776 6 0.544 4.9 4.4
9 951 701 9 0.573 5.1 4.4

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Yankees’ Postseason History By Year-Ending Number

Year Ending WC/ Division Pennant World Series Total Postseason
0 2 1 2 5
1 – 3 3 6
2 1 2 3 6
3 – 2 3 5
4 1 1 – 2
5 2 1 – 3
6 1 2 3 6
7 2 1 4 7
8 – – 5 5
9 – – 4 4

Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Yankees have been remarkably consistent over the years. The team’s winning percentage has ranged within a 14-point band for all year-ending numbers but two (5 and 8). In years ending in 4 and 5, however, the team has only made the playoffs two and three times, respectively, and never won a World Series in either. Thankfully, the picture is much brighter for years ending in 1, as the team has won three World Series (1941, 1951 and 1961) and three pennants (1921, 1981 and 2001).

So, as it turns out, Yankees’ fans have no cause for concern about the upcoming season. However, it probably isn’t too early to start worrying about the middle of the decade.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Hockey in the Bronx? Yankee Stadium Would Be Ideal Spot for Next Winter Classic

January 1, 2011 by William Juliano

No team has proven to be more adept at hosting the Fall Classic than the New York Yankees, so maybe it’s time to give the Winter variety a try?

In 2009, Wrigley Field hosted the Blackhawks and Red Wings in the Winter Classic.

Too long relegated to an afterthought on the American sports scene, the NHL has managed to carve out at least one day when it takes center stage. When the first Winter Classic was held at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo on January 1, 2008, the idea of outdoor hockey seemed more like a gimmick than the beginning of a holiday tradition. However, the record attendance of 71,217 fans was resounding, and since then the game has become an annual event.

After Buffalo, the Winter Classic moved to Wrigley Field in 2009 and then Fenway Park in 2010 before winding up at Pittsburgh’s Hines Field this evening. Although the game hasn’t been played yet, there has already been talk about what site will host the 2012 edition. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has admitted that Yankee Stadium remains atop his list, but the venue’s four-year contract to host the New Era Pinstripe Bowl has been an impediment. Because the bowl game is scheduled to be played on December 30, and the Winter Classic only two days later, hosting both events in the same year has been deemed an impossibility.

Logistics should not be the reason that one of sports’ most exciting new traditions is prevented from being held in one of the country’s most cherished and symbolic athletic facilities. Compromise is not really possible on the NHL’s end because maintaining the integrity of the January 1 date seems essential to the Winter Classic tradition. So, the burden is on the Yankees to make it happen.

The Bruins and Flyers squared off at Fenway Park in the 2010 Winter Classic.

Although there are undoubtedly contractual obligations that would need to be assuaged, the Yankees should actively lean on their college football partners to temporary reschedule the game earlier in the Bowl Season (which in 2010 began on December 18). Assuming the Islanders are still around, the game could feature the struggling franchise against the New York Rangers. Not only could the high profile event help boost the woeful Islanders, but the marginal profit made from the game would likely be at its highest (i.e., replacing an Islanders’ home date would likely be more lucrative than taking one away from more established teams like the Blackhawks and Bruins). Finally, the recent Stanley Cup traditions of both teams would allow for a roster of All Stars to be in attendance (e.g., Denis Potvin, Mike Bossy, Clark Gillies, Mike Richter, Brian Leetch and Mark Messier), not to mention one of the loudest “Potvin Sucks” chants in Islanders/Rangers history.

Just like it was in the good old days, Yankee Stadium has become a Mecca of sports and entertainment in New York City. Since opening less than two years ago, the new Yankee Stadium has been host to a World Series, an Army/Notre Dame college football game, a NCAAF bowl game, a championship boxing match and concerts featuring the most popular entertainers of the day. Between now and 2012, the organization should work diligently to add the NHL Winter Classic to that list.

Posted in Baseball, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment »

Hall of Shame: Instead of Votes, Some BBWAA Members Cast Doubt; Bagwell A Chief Victim of Smear Campaign

December 31, 2010 by William Juliano

(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeU.)

The holidays are also major league baseball’s Hall of Fame season. Once the ballot is released after Thanksgiving, hundreds of BBWAA members endeavor to narrow down the choices, and in the process, usually write about their selections ahead of the official announcement on January 5. As a result, an undercurrent usually emerges from the collective prose to offer a hint as to the eventual outcome.

Will the Hall of Fame turn its back on Bagwell because of rumor and innuendo?

Unfortunately for the likes of Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar and Alan Trammell, there really hasn’t been a resounding sentiment that would foreshadow their deserved elections. Instead, the major theme of the process has been steroids. With the addition of Rafael Palmeiro to the ballot, the focus on PEDs is certainly understandable. After all, despite collecting 3,000 hits among many other accomplishments, the former All Star first baseman is now best known for his finger pointing denial in front of Congress just months before testing positive for a banned substance in 2005. Interestingly, Palmeiro, who joins Mark McGwire on the ballot as a qualified candidate stained by PEDs, still maintains his innocence, but the overwhelming sentiment is that he has virtually no chance of being elected.

I was telling the truth then, and I am telling the truth now. I don’t know what else I can say. I have never taken steroids. For people who think I took steroids intentionally, I’m never going to convince them. But I hope the voters judge my career fairly and don’t look at one mistake.” – Rafael Palmeiro, quoted by AP, December 30, 2010

Although no one can come close to knowing the true impact that steroids and other “performance enhancing” drugs actually have on the playing field, it is perfectly legitimate to hold an admission or failed drug test against a particular candidate. According to the Hall of Fame’s BBWAA elections rules, “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” Clearly, taking performance enhancing drugs calls into question the qualifications of integrity, sportsmanship and character. Of course, the impact of those qualities still has to be weighed against the overall contribution, not to mention measured against the prevailing attitude of the era. Nonetheless, when there is evidence of  PED use, it becomes reasonable to disregard an otherwise perfectly deserving candidate.

Unfortunately, far too many members of the BBWAA have gone beyond the careful consideration of evidence and allowed rumors, unverified allegations and, even worse, mere hunches to factor into their decision. The chief victim of this perverted process has been Jeff Bagwell. Although some might argue that Bagwell wasn’t as dominant as other more prominent first baseman of his era, it’s nearly impossible to build a case against him on a statistical basis. Based on his numbers and reputation within the game, Bagwell should be a slam dunk, no doubt about it, first ballot Hall of Famer. So, what’s the problem?

Apparently, a large segment of the voting population has gotten it into their heads that Jeff Bagwell did steroids. In what Craig Calcattera perfectly labeled “Steroid McCarthyism”, several eligible voters have openly accused Bagwell of being tainted without offering one shred of evidence to support their vitriolic allegations. Instead, these writers have cowardly hid behind hunches, suspicions and undisclosed circumstantial evidence to not only smear an individual, but make the entire process seem so illegitimate.

Jeff Bagwell’s Career Progression, HRs and OPS+

Source: Baseball-reference.com

The baseless accusations against Bagwell are somewhat curious because his career followed the normal path that one would expect from a superstar player. At the age of 23, he broke into the majors as a productive player, had several strong peak years in his mid-to-late 20s and then slowly declined into his 30s until finishing his last full season at age 36. Unlike other players of the era, Bagwell did not resurrect a stalled career, nor find the fountain of youth in the years after his prime. He has repeatedly denied using PEDs, but that hasn’t stemmed the tide of cowardly innuendo. In fact, the repeated allegations have done so much damage that the truth probably doesn’t even matter anymore.

So much has gone on in the last eight or nine years, it’s kind of taken some of the valor off it for me. If I ever do get to the Hall of Fame and there are 40 guys sitting behind me thinking, ‘He took steroids,’ then it’s not even worth it to me. I don’t know if that sounds stupid. But it’s how I feel in a nutshell.” – Jeff Bagwell, quoted by ESPN.com, December 29, 2010

Another argument many have used against Bagwell is “guilt by association”. Although no evidence exists about his personal use, the theory goes, he still warrants a scarlet letter because of the era in which he played. Clearly, that’s a nonsensical approach to the issue that can’t possibly be applied with any consistency. In fact, one who holds that sentiment should recues himself from the voting process.

Over the past 10-20 years, it has become obvious that the voting process for the Hall of Fame needs a major overhaul. Just as it has demonstrated with its annual post season awards, the BBWAA is no longer uniquely qualified to serve as the sole arbiter of baseball’s greatest honor. Before the advent of the internet and proliferation of television, sportswriters, by virtue of their access, were among a select group of people with particular insight into the game. Nowadays, however, that is no longer the case. On the contrary, the aging BBWAA population has proven to be significantly out of touch with the game’s development, and therefore woefully inadequate in its role as a third-party overseer. This disintegration is perfectly illustrated by the dozens of trade group members who have deemed themselves qualified to serve as doctors and lawyers when considering Hall of Fame candidates.

The current electorate’s inability to see the distinction between Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven is disturbing enough, but its mob mentality in handling players like Bagwell is really the last straw. Using pens as pitchforks, some BBWAA members have torched reputations and tarnished accomplishments, all in the name of preserving the game’s integrity. In reality, however, the opposite has been true. Therefore, the time has come for major league baseball and the Hall of Fame to take a serious look at the electoral process as well as the qualifications of those casting votes.

There are many intelligent, thoughtful sportswriters who should remain a part of the process, but as recent events have proven, there are also many who should not. Simply being a tenured member of a trade group should not merit such a distinct honor. Last decade, baseball endeavored to clean up the game by enacting a strict drug testing regimen. This decade, it should aim to revamp the Hall of Fame election process by ensuring that a more deserving and better qualified group of voters is entrusted with preserving its history. It’s time to put an end to the age of suspicion, and those who wish to wallow in rumor and innuendo should be left behind.

Posted in Baseball, Hall of Fame, MLB, Yankees | Tagged , | 4 Comments »

Keeping Up with Andruw Jones: Former All Star Would Make Ideal Fourth Outfielder for Yanks

December 30, 2010 by William Juliano

For obvious reasons, the Yankees’ offseason actions, or lack thereof, have centered on pitching. Considering the team’s offense led the American League in runs, OBP and OPS+ in 2010, the focus on pitching makes perfect sense. That’s not to suggest, however, that a smaller move can’t later prove to be significant (last year’s little noticed acquisition of Marcus Thames is a perfect example).

As a 19-year old, Andruw Jones belted two home runs against the Yankees in the first game of the 1996 World Series (Photo: SI).

With Thames expected to seek more playing time elsewhere, and Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns already signed elsewhere, the Yankees’ bench has been seriously depleted. A utility infielder would make a nice addition, as would a backup first baseman, but above all else, the team’s biggest need in terms of depth is a right handed hitter capable of playing at least adequate defense.

Although two potent right handed bats, Vladimir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez, remain on the market, their inability to play the outfield makes them an unlikely fit. Similarly, Johnny Damon’s rapidly declining defense, not to mention being left handed, also makes him somewhat of a square peg. What’s more, all three of those players would likely demand regular playing time, and with Jorge Posada scheduled to be a full-time DH, that’s not something the Yankees can offer. There is, however, one remaining free agent who fits the profile: Andruw Jones.

Despite being only 33, Jones is really a shell of the player he once was. Nonetheless, he remains a decent outfielder who can still hit left handed pitchers. In other words, he’d be the perfect compliment to a Yankee outfield that features two left handed hitters. Because both Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson can play centerfield, Jones could be used as a part-time replacement in left as well as an occasional DH when Posada either needs a rest or makes a rare start behind the plate. What’s more, in each of the past two seasons, Jones has had just over 300 plate appearances, so he seems to have willingly accepted a part-time role.

Just because the Yankees have two gaping holes in the rotation doesn’t mean they should ignore the opportunity to make a minor improvement to the offense. Signing Jones won’t close the gap in the A.L. East, but it would address a need with an ideal solution. At some point, the Yankees may need to make a bigger move, but in the meantime, a couple of incremental improvements could mitigate this larger concern.

Andruw Jones vs. LHP, 2002-2010

Source: FanGraphs.com

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Call to Arms: Yanks “Need” Pettitte, but Does He Need Them?

December 29, 2010 by William Juliano

Cliff Lee’s return to Philadelphia put the Yankees into a bit of a tailspin, but a tacit expectation that Andy Pettitte would return allowed the team to continue to preach patience. Lately, however, the tea leaves have not been as favorable. In a press conference for the upcoming Pinstripe Bowl, Mark Teixeira stated that Pettitte is still leaning toward retirement, a reality that seems to have evoked a hint of desperation. Speaking at the same event, Yankees’ president Randy Levine all but pleaded for the lefty to return by admitting, “Every day I hope Andy comes back. I think he knows we need him”.

Randy Levine and the rest of the Yankees’ brass have been hoping for Andy Pettitte’s return, but will their prayers be answered?

Pettitte has never seemed like the type of guy to hold a grudge, but as he sits back on a Hawaii beach sipping a Mai Tai, you couldn’t blame him if Levine’s words were sweeter than the pineapple juice in his drink. After all, it was only two years ago when Pettitte was forced to return to the Yankees with hat in hand and accept an incentive laden deal. At that time, the Yankees had just signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, so the same urgency to re-sign the veteran lefty didn’t exist. Bargaining from a position of strength, the Yankees presented Pettitte with a “take it or leave it” offer of $10 million, which represented a significant pay cut from the $16 million salary he had earned the year before. After turning down that initial offer, Pettitte eventually agreed to a deal at the end of January. The terms of the contract he signed called for an even lower base salary of $5.5 million with incentives, nearly all of which he reached.

The bottom line is, I’m a man, and I guess it does take a shot at your pride a little bit. But when you put all that aside, I wanted to play for the New York Yankees. I wanted to be there and I wanted to play in that new stadium.” – Andy Pettitte, quoted in The New York Times, January 26, 2009

Needless to say, Pettitte won’t be forced to accept a below market deal this time around. Over the course of a few short months, the services of the veteran have gone from a luxury to an absolute necessity, so now it is Pettitte who holds all the cards. Of course, that assumes that he even wants to play. With anyone else, you could be sure that the song and dance about retirement was really a ploy intended to drive up the Yankees’ offer, but Pettitte’s indecision is likely genuine. Otherwise, his agent would also be soliciting offers from elsewhere, and that doesn’t seem to be the case.

If he decides to return, the Yankees would be more than happy to have Pettitte exact a small pound of flesh in the contract negotiations. Even though the team would still have work to do on its rotation, the return of Pettitte would provide them with enough leeway to continue practicing the art of patience. Should Pettitte actually retire, however, it could finally be time to push the panic button. All of a sudden, reclamation projects like Brad Penny, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia and Chris Young would become vital parts of the Yankees’ 2011 blueprint, which isn’t exactly a championship architecture.

The Yankees definitely need Andy Pettitte, and he knows it. But, does he need the Yankees? Somewhere amid the surf and sand, that question is being considered. Whether it’s with money, personal appeals or the lure of historical accomplishment, the Yankees need to do everything possible to influence the eventual decision. Otherwise, the entire organization will probably have the opportunity to join Pettitte on that beach early in October.

Reachable Team Milestones for Andy Pettitte

Rk Player WAR   Player W
1 Whitey Ford 55.3   Whitey Ford 236
2 Mariano Rivera 52.9   Red Ruffing 231
3 Red Ruffing 49.7   Andy Pettitte 203
4 Ron Guidry 44.4   Lefty Gomez 189
5 Lefty Gomez 43.2   Ron Guidry 170
6 Andy Pettitte 42.7   Bob Shawkey 168
           
Rk Player K   Player GS
1 Whitey Ford 1956   Whitey Ford 438
2 Andy Pettitte 1823   Andy Pettitte 396
3 Ron Guidry 1778   Red Ruffing 391
4 Red Ruffing 1526   Mel Stottlemyre 356
5 Lefty Gomez 1468   Ron Guidry 323

Source: Baseball-reference.com

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