The Captain's Blog

Staff Infection Puts Yankees Playoff Hopes on Life Support; Team Needs Starters to Pitch In for Wild Card Push

August 27, 2013 by William Juliano

The Yankees offense has been their Achilles heel for most of the season. However, even amid a mini resurgence with the bats, the team’s starting pitchers have taken enough stutter steps to keep the Bronx Bombers limping down the stretch .

2013 Monthly ERA: Yankees vs. American League

Note: AL average includes Yankees’ figures.
Source: fangraphs.com

The Yankees’ rotation ranks in the middle of the pack with a median ERA of 4.07 that is one-tenth of a run below the American League average. However, in two of the last three months, the team’s starters have posted an ERA closer to the bottom. This month, the Yankees’ starting five have allowed over 4 ½ runs per game, which has resulted in a negative run differential during that span and prevented the team from taking advantage of the lineup’s increased run production.

Monthly ERAs for Yankees’ Starters

Note: Minimum of 10 innings per month.
Source: fangraphs.com

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Yankees Make Like Early Birds in Day Games After Night

August 22, 2013 by William Juliano

This afternoon, the Yankees follow up a “dreaded double header” with the equally lamented “day game after a night game”. These two scheduling hurdles are never greeted enthusiastically by managers, especially those with teams in a pennant race, but for the Yankees at least, the hand wringing is unnecessary.

Yankees Day vs. Night Game Distribution, 1939-2013

Note: All day games played before 1939.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary

The Bronx Bombers have proven to be masters of the doubleheader, but what about their performance when following up a night game with a matinee the very next day? In all day games, the Yankees have had a good amount of success, winning over 56% of the 11,513 contests under the sun since 1901. However, that isn’t the best baseline for comparison because it includes almost 40 seasons without any games played under the lights. Continue Reading »

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Let’s Play Two: Yankees Have Historically Doubled Their Pleasure in Twin Bills (Updated)

August 20, 2013 by William Juliano

The post below has been updated to reflect changes since original publication.

Whenever a team is forced to play a doubleheader, the manager will usually express a universal lament about how difficult it is to win both games. No manager has been more vocal about this perceived dynamic than Joe Girardi, but is it really true?

Since the Yankees joined the American League as the Baltimore Orioles in 1901, the team has played 1,754 doubleheaders, although a vast majority took place before the modern expansion era. Nonetheless, of that total, the Yankees wound up splitting (including games ending in a tie) or being swept in 1,155 (66%), which seems to lend credence to the age-old concern. Or does it?

Yankees Performance in Doubleheaders, 1901 to 2013
Note: Data as of August 20, 2013. Splits include 30 doubleheaders with one game ending in tie.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

On the surface, earning a sweep in one of every three doubleheaders seems like a disadvantage, but how often do the Yankees win two games in a row anyway? One way to answer that question is to compare the Yankees’ franchise record in doubleheaders to the winning percentage compiled in single games. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Comeback to the Future: Has Time Run Out on the Yankees?

August 19, 2013 by William Juliano

The Yankees have reached the three-quarter pole, and their position in the pennant race is an unfamiliar one. Instead of leading the field, the Bronx Bombers find themselves stalking a wide field that includes a few thoroughbreds as well as a couple of dark horses. And, among all the contenders, the Yankees may be the biggest long shot of them all.

Before last night’s victory over the Red Sox, the Yankees trailed the division lead by 8 ½ games, which was the 18th time since the advent of the 162-game schedule that they have been at least that far back at the same point in the season. Unfortunately for the Bronx Bombers, when the team has been running distant after playing 75% of their games, they have rarely made a recovery. However, there are two seasons to which Yankee fans can look for a glimmer of hope.

Largest Yankees’ Deficits at 3/4-Mark, Since 1961 (162-game schedule)

Note: The Yankees won the A.L. East in 1978 and the Wild Card in 1995. The 1995 season had a 145-game schedule. Other seasons may have had more or less than 162 games for non-scheduling reasons (e.g., postponements).
Source: baseball-reference.com

In 1978, the Yankees, who were battling key injuries, struggled through a listless summer, eventually falling 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox. With the team scuffling on the field, and fighting with each other in the clubhouse, the defending champions already seemed counted out. Then, the Yankees got on a hot streak and whittled the deficit to 8 ½ after 122 games, the same position they were in this past Sunday. The good news stops there, however. In order to overtake the Red Sox, the Yankees had to play a scalding 30-10 over the final quarter, and even then, still needed a one-game playoff to complete the comeback.

Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Red Sox, Yankee History, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Walking More and Striking Out Less? A Look at League and Individual Rates

August 9, 2013 by William Juliano

Although strikeouts in Major League Baseball have declined slightly this season, the overall trajectory in the last decade has been a precipitous rise. Meanwhile, walks have been gradually dwindling over the same span. This divergence has played a role in the overall decline in offense, however, some players have been able to buck these prevailing trends.

Major League Baseball BB and K Rates, 2004 to 2013

Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013.
Source: fangraphs.com

In 2011, David Ortiz enjoyed a historic drop in his strikeout rate, an accomplishment made even more extraordinary by the overall environment in which it was achieved as well as his ability to maintain that level over the two seasons that have followed. Although not to the extreme of Ortiz, an increasing number of hitters have been able to reign in their strike out total this season. Among the 95 players with a qualified season both in 2012 and so far in 2013, only 39 have struck out more often, while 54 have gone down on strikes less frequently.

Top-10 2013 Strikeout Rate Declines and Increases

Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013. Includes only a comparison of consecutive qualified seasons.
Source: fangraphs.com

Norichika Aoki leads the way among those curbing their strikeouts. His 43% decline in strikeouts per plate appearance ranks first among all qualified hitters this season, but because he is working off a smaller base, the corresponding four percentage point drop in the real rate doesn’t register in the top-10. In terms of actual change in strikeout rate, Jason Heyward ranks first, having shaved 6.3 percentage points off his ratio.

While most qualified hitters have lowered their strikeout rates, a sizable minority continue to rack up an increasing number. Heading that brigade is Prince Fielder, whose strikeouts per plate appearance have increased by 42%. Carlos Gonzalez isn’t far behind with a 36% increase, which, though third on a ratio basis, has resulted in the largest percentage point increase.

Continue Reading »

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MLB Tactics in Biogenesis Case Raise Old Question, Hark Back to Steinbrenner/Winfield Saga

August 7, 2013 by William Juliano

One of the most prominent figures in all of sports, whose controversial tenure with the Yankees kept the tabloids in business, was given an unprecedented suspension from an overzealous commissioner who grossly overstepped his authority in handing down the ban. Although that neatly sums up the ongoing Alex Rodriguez saga, it could just as easily be a time capsule for events that took place 23 years ago.

George Steinbrenner and Dave Winfield didn't share many tender moments.

Steinbrenner and Winfield didn’t have many tender moments during their years together in the Bronx.

On July 30, 1990, Yankees principal owner George M. Steinbrenner III accepted a lifetime ban (he actually proposed it as an alternative to a two-year suspension) from baseball commissioner Fay Vincent. His crime was paying $40,000 to “known gambler” Howie Spira in exchange for “dirt” on Dave Winfield.

The Yankees signed Dave Winfield to a then-record 10-year contract after the 1980 season, but before the ink dried, Steinbrenner and his new outfielder seemed destined for a decade of confrontation. One of the main points of contention was a $3 million pledge Steinbrenner made to the Dave Winfield Foundation. Throughout the 1980s, the promised contribution was a major source of friction between Steinbrenner and Winfield as the two parties squabbled over the timing of payments and the foundation’s use of funds. The disagreement culminated in dueling lawsuits before the 1989 season, but the two sides eventually struck a deal before arguments were put before an arbitrator. However, despite the resolution, the events leading up to it would eventually come back to haunt Steinbrenner.

During the 1986 season, Steinbrenner and Winfield’s feud had become well publicized, and Spira, who had his own axe to grind against the All Star, decided to take advantage. The gambler, who was also a disgruntled former employee of Winfield, offered to provide Steinbrenner with damaging information about his one-time boss in exchange for financial assistance. Because of the eventual arbitration settlement, Steinbrenner never needed to use the dirt Spira had provided, but the gambler still insisted on his payoff. After angling for a job with Steinbrenner, Spira eventually accepted a $40,000 check, but then, not long after, demanded more. Those demands would become the basis of Spira’s extortion conviction, but much to the dismay of Steinbrenner, they would also lead to his banishment from the game. Continue Reading »

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, Baseball History, George M. Steinbrenner, MLB, PEDs, Yankee History, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Fans, Media Hold Nose for Arod, but It’s Yankees Offense that Stinks

August 6, 2013 by William Juliano

If Alex Rodriguez’ controversial return was a distraction last night, the Yankees should be grateful. With the spotlight squarely on Arod, another lackluster effort by the Bronx Bombers went largely unnoticed. Tabloid headlines aside, the real story in Chicago was a Yankee lineup that continues to sink to historical depths, not the embattled slugger batting in the middle of it.

Although there was a lot of hyperbole regarding the significance of Rodriguez’ suspension and subsequent season debut, no exaggeration is needed to portray the futility of the Bronx Bombers’ offense. The numbers, or lack of thereof, speak for themselves.

Yankees’ Offensive Rates, 1901 to Present
WRC ops wOBA