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Hiroki Kuroda’s Brilliance Thrusts Righty into Cy Young Race, Keeps Yankees in Playoff Hunt

August 1, 2013 by William Juliano

 

Kuroda has helped pump up the struggling Yankees (Photo: AP).

Kuroda has helped pump up the struggling Yankees (Photo: AP).

Hiroki Kuroda is the Yankees’ best starter. Even CC Sabathia doesn’t dispute the veteran right hander’s ascendance to ace status. However, designating Kuroda as the top pitcher in pinstripes doesn’t go far enough. The Japanese hurler just might be the best starter in the entire American League.

Ask anyone to name the top contenders for the A.L. Cy Young and chances are Kuroda’s name won’t make the cut. The Yankees’ ace couldn’t even wrangle a spot on this year’s All Star team, so it’s no surprise that his dominant 2013 season has been mostly overlooked. However, following another seven shutout innings against the Dodgers (for which he earned a no decision), the right hander currently leads the junior circuit with an ERA+ of 169. Kuroda also ranks first in advanced metrics like RE24, WPA, and adjusted pitcher wins, while placing fourth (and moving up) in baseball-reference.com’s calculation of pitchers’ WAR. If you can look past his deflated win total, which has been suppressed by the Yankees’ anemic offense, Kuroda’s Cy Young case seems to grow stronger with each passing start.

Best Calendar Month ERA by a Yankee Pitcher, Since 1916
best NYY pitcher month

Note: Minimum of 30 innings.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

With two months left in the season, it’s too soon to start handing out the real hardware. Still, Kuroda’s mantle should get more crowded when the “pitcher of the month” awards are announced. The Yankees’ ace posted a sterling ERA of 0.55 in 33 innings during July, giving him the lowest rate among all pitchers with at least 19 innings in any single month this season. Kuroda’s outstanding July also ranks as one of the stingiest in Yankees’ history. Including all pinstriped pitchers with at least 30 innings in a calendar month (since 1916), Kuroda’s July ERA was the fourth best. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Bud Selig’s Changing View of Baseball’s Best Interests

July 30, 2013 by William Juliano

Bud Selig is about to use the nuclear option on Alex Rodriguez.

Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement is mostly very specific in its delegation of power, but there is a broad clause that grants the commissioner authority to mete out justice that he, alone, believes is in the best interest of the game. Since Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis first used those powers in the wake of the Black Sox scandal, several commissioners have invoked the privilege, but the target has usually been an owner, manager, or team. In this instance, however, media reports suggest Selig is considering asserting his “best interests” authority to not only slap Arod with a disproportionate suspension, but also deny him access to the appeals process afforded by the CBA.

Players may be disciplined for just cause for conduct that is materially detrimental or materially prejudicial to the best interests of Baseball including, but not limited to, engaging in conduct in violation of federal, state or local law.” – Article XII (B) of MLB Basic Agreement

Bud Selig is no stranger to the “best interests” clause. In 1992, he was intimately involved in a legal challenge of the same authority he is now on the verge of wielding. At the time, Commissioner Fay Vincent sought to force the realignment of the National League against the wishes of the Chicago Cubs, who sued to stop the measure. A Federal Court granted the Cubs an injunction, but before Commissioner Vincent could follow through on his appeal (thereby letting stand the Judge’s ruling that he exceeded his authority), a coalition headed by Selig forced his resignation. “We can move forward,” Selig said after the issue was decided in his favor, “to resolve the realignment issue through consensus rather than confrontation, which is the approach that I would like to take to each and every problem confronting the game today.”

Bud Selig's efforts led to the ouster of Fay Vincent (l.) as commissioner.

Bud Selig’s efforts led to the ouster of Fay Vincent (l.) as commissioner.

In the aftermath of Vincent’s resignation, Selig, as chairman of the executive council, became the de facto commissioner. Initially, he and his fellow owners took several steps to neuter the role of commissioner, including removing the authority to make business decisions based upon “best interests” discretion. Although Selig vehemently defended those actions, arguing that the clause, which had become all-encompassing, was intended to be narrow in scope, others saw it differently. During a Congressional hearing on baseball’s anti-trust exemption, Senator Howard Metzenbaum berated Selig for turning the commissioner into a “lackey”.

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, Baseball History, CBA, MLB, PEDs, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Yankees Come Full Circle with Acquisition of Alfonso Soriano, but Alex Rodriguez Has Team Chasing Its Tail

July 26, 2013 by William Juliano

While Alex Rodriguez and Brian Cashman continue to dicker over the third baseman’s reinstatement to the active roster, the Yankees are set to welcome back the man they traded for Arod 10 years ago. The acquisition of Alfonso Soriano juxtaposed against the Rodriquez saga might seem like an amusing coincidence, but both events say quite a bit about the current and future state of the franchise.

With return of Soriano, Yankees are going back to the future to improve the present

With return of Soriano, Yankees are going back to the future to improve the present

The most obvious connection between Arod and Soriano is the former’s absence has, in part, necessitated the latter’s arrival. The Yankees need Soriano’s right handed power bat because the team is in the midst of a historic home run decline. However, Cashman can’t blame his team’s shortcomings completely on injuries like the one that has sidelined Rodriguez. Rather, the Yankees’ penny wise approach to building an off season roster has left them looking pound foolish during the pennant race, leaving Cashman to cast his net wide for an army of has-beens and never weres.

Because the Yankees were unwilling to open their checkbook in the winter, they’ve spent the summer throwing good money after bad contracts. Soriano is the latest example. The left fielder still has two years and $25 million remaining on a contract that quickly became an albatross for the Cubs, who have to be thrilled with the chance to rid themselves of the obligation, even if it means recouping only pennies on the dollar.

According to one report, the Yankees will receive approximately $18 million from the Cubs to take Soriano off their books. Considering how poorly the Yankees’ offense has performed, and the team’s desperate need for a right handed power bat, the remaining $7 million price tag seems like a bargain, especially when you compare Soriano’s modest production to the black hole he’ll be asked to fill. In that context, the acquisition of Soriano makes perfect sense, and is not unlike how the Yankees have operated in the past.

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, Brian Cashman, Business and Finance, Hal Steinbrenner, MLB, PEDs, Rumors, Trades, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Historic Home Run Decline Turns Yankees into Dive Bombers

July 22, 2013 by William Juliano

The Bronx Bombers have been grounded.

You could see the drop off in the Yankees’ home run total coming from a mile away. However, even the most dire forecast didn’t account for the historic decline that has turned the Bronx Bombers from a perennial power house into a squadron of pea shooters one year removed from setting the franchise record for round trippers.

Yankees’ HR Total, 1901-2013
NYYHRs

Note: 2013 total is pro-rated based on games played.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

In 98 games, the Yankees’ home run tally stands at a miniscule 88. Not only does that paltry total rank 13th in the American League, but it’s a whopping 65 home runs behind last year’s production over the same number of games. If the Yankees’ power drain continues for the rest of the season, the team’s pro-rated total of 145 long balls would rank as the lowest per-game output since 1989 and, compared to last year’s total of 245, represent the largest full season year-over-year decline in baseball history (the Brewers hit 107 fewer homers in the strike-shortened 1981 season).

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Baseball, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Does CC Sabathia Pitch to the Score? Comparing ERA and RS/9 for Current Workhorses

July 18, 2013 by William Juliano

The validity of “pitching to the score” isn’t really a sabermetric debate. After all, it pits the importance of pitcher wins versus ERA, two statistics that have been tracked since the advent of the box score. Nonetheless, the discussion usually breaks down along party lines, with number crunchers often insisting the concept is a myth, while old school advocates extol it as a virtue.

So, does pitching to the score really exist, and how many hurlers actually do it? The easiest way to answer that question would be to poll the pitchers themselves, but there doesn’t seem to be a consensus among the fraternity. For every Cliff Lee, who seems to think some pitchers have an innate ability to win games, there is a David Cone, another former Cy Young award winner who is fond of saying, “It’s now how you pitch, it’s when you pitch.”

There’s value to guys who can go out there and just get wins. It don’t matter if you give up four runs or no runs. Just so long as you don’t let a team score more runs than your team scores. There’s definitely something to be said about that.” – Phillies’ ace Cliff Lee, quoted by Philly.com, July 17, 2013

Because there are so many variables involved in the equation, it’s impossible to definitively settle the “pitching to the score” debate. Two seasons ago, I took a look at Justin Verlander’s performance on a granular level and was unable to uncover evidence that he was making concessions to the score. This time around, I’ve decided to take a more broad approach. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, so if pitching to the score is as commonplace as some suggest, there should be at least some anecdotal statistical evidence among a larger sample. In order to find it, a five-year comparison was made between the ERA and run support rates for the 22 pitchers who have had a qualified season in each of those years. The results are provided in the chart below.

Correlation Between ERA and RS/9 for Select Pitchers, 2008 to 2012
ERARS9correl

Note: Sample includes all pitchers with a qualified season in each year from 2008 to 2012. RS/9 is the sum of all runs scored while a pitcher is still in the game divided by the number of innings he pitched and then multiplied by 9. The correlation coefficient (r) ranges from -1.0 to +1.0. The closer r is to +1 or -1, the more closely the two variables are related.
Source: fangraphs.com

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, sabermetrics, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Leyland Doesn’t Save Best for Last, Denies Rivera Perfect End to All Star Career

July 17, 2013 by William Juliano

Mariano Rivera, who has become a legend saving games in the ninth inning, ended his All Star career as a setup guy for Joe Nathan. Jim Leyland’s heart may have been in the right place, but the logic behind his epic blunder was horribly wrong.

Rivera acknowledges the crowd after entering the 2013 All Star Game in the eighth inning. (Photo: AP)

Rivera acknowledges the crowd after entering the 2013 All Star Game in the eighth inning. (Photo: AP)

With the American League leading 3-0 in the bottom of the eighth, Leyland was handed the perfect script. Common sense seemed to dictate giving the ball to Nathan as a segue to the immortal Rivera in the ninth, allowing the future Hall of Famer to walk off the field triumphantly with a save in his final All Star Game. Instead, Leyland reversed that order, dulling what was still a great moment when Enter Sandman played in the eighth, but one that could have been even more memorable had it occurred an inning later.

Leyland’s curious decision wasn’t completely out of the blue. The veteran manager’s biggest fear was having the National League rally in the eighth, thereby denying Rivera a chance to pitch. When the score was 2-0, that logic might have made some sense, but once the A.L.’s lead increased to three, it was rendered obsolete. After all, in 659 games, Nathan had allowed four runs in only six appearances, so the chance of him squandering Rivera’s opportunity to close was remote. And, even if the National League did rally, Leyland could have still summoned Rivera to snuff it out. There was never a risk that the Yankees’ closer would be left in the bullpen, but by hedging a little, Leyland could have ensured the finish everyone wanted to see. Instead, the Tigers’ manager didn’t adapt his plan, and baseball fans paid the price.

Although his intentions were good, Leyland’s poor judgment has left him vulnerable to the kind of fallout Cito Gaston endured when the Blue Jays manager left Mike Mussina warming up in the bullpen during the final inning of the 1993 All Star Game, which was played in Baltimore. However, Rivera won’t be among the critics. Not surprisingly, the always humble closer was gracious after his appearance, even thanking Leyland for ensuring his appearance in the game.  Rivera didn’t get a chance to notch another save, but he was afforded another opportunity to display the class and dignity that have defined his career.

As a consolation, Rivera was voted the All Star Game MVP. Still, the real tribute should have been the honor of recording the final out. If only Leyland hadn’t over-managed an easy decision and simply saved his best…the very best…for last, baseball fans would have been left with a more lasting memory of the greatest closer of all time slamming the door in his final Midsummer Classic. It would have been a perfect script…almost as perfect as Rivera himself.

Posted in All Star Game, Baseball, Baseball History, Mariano Rivera, MLB, Yankees | 11 Comments »

Rivera, Harvey Give ASG New York State of Mind, but Other Teams Have More Star Power

July 16, 2013 by William Juliano

In the past, the Yankees have been criticized for their less than enthusiastic interest in the All Star Game. This year, the voters returned the favor.

Yankees’ All Star Game Selections by Year
NYYASGapp

Note: Not every player actually appeared in the game.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Robinson Cano and Mariano Rivera are the only Yankees who will represent the franchise in the 84th All Star Game at Citi Field. The Bronx Bombers’ two selections represent the smallest pinstriped contingent since Wade Boggs and Jimmy Key were named to the 1993 team. In the 19 seasons between then and 2013, the Yankees had boasted 89 total selections, including eight representatives in 2004, 2010 and 2011, but this year, they will be one of the least represented franchises at the Midsummer Classic.

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Posted in All Star Game, Baseball, Baseball History, Mariano Rivera, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

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