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Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were the toast of Spring Training, compiling a 24-7 record that ranked as the second best in a non-labor shortened exhibition season since 1984. This spring, the Royals did them one better, ending the pre-season with a 25-7 mark that has optimism on the rise in Kansas City.

If Royals fans are looking for good omens, the 2012 Blue Jays are not the answer. After having such a strong spring, Toronto was immediately side tracked by an onslaught of injuries that culminated in a disappointing 73-89 finish. The end result was a 32% decline in regular season winning percentage when compared to the exhibition schedule, which represented the fourth largest drop off in 30 years.

Teams with ST Winning Percentages of At Least 70%, Since 1984

Top Springs

Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com

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Giancarlo Stanton is a rising young star, but among his teammates in Miami, the right fielder is a man among boys. The disparity between Stanton and his mates is so great that some have suggested the slugger could out homer the rest of the Marlins’ offense. That might sound like an exaggeration, but in 2012, Stanton belted three more homers than the other eight members of the Marlins’ projected Opening Day lineup combined.  So, if the All Star isn’t pitched around in every at bat, he just might lap the field in Miami.

OK, fine. The Marlins probably won’t be that bad. Even though the lineup will be lacking for power, it would take an unprecedented effort (or lack thereof) from the team’s offense to thrust Stanton onto such a pedestal. After all, since 1901 (and including the Federal League), only 15 players have accounted for more than 50% of their team’s home run total, and none have done it since outfielder Stan Spence hit 18 of the Senators’ 33 homers in 1944.

Players Who Out Homered Their Teammates, Since 1901
HR over 50percent

Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

It’s no surprise to see Babe Ruth’s name listed prominently among players who have out homered their teammates. In 1918, Ruth’s 11 homers accounted for 73% of the Red Sox output and bested the total hit by five different teams. However, the following year is when the Bambino really distinguished himself. With 29 homers in 1919, Ruth not only contributed a whopping 88% of Boston’s home run count, but he also hit more long balls than 10 other major league teams.

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(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

There are billions of reasons for MLB Commissioner Bud Selig to smile. (Photo: AP)

There are billions of reasons for MLB Commissioner Bud Selig to smile. (Photo: AP)

Baseball is big business. The health and wealth of the game has become so transparent that independent valuations are no longer necessary to dispel the myth of baseball’s demise that had become popular not too long ago. Nonetheless, Forbes’ annual snapshot of individual team finances remains an interesting benchmark for measuring the game’s continued impressive growth.

According to Forbes’ 2013 survey, which is based on estimates for 2012, baseball franchises cumulatively increased in value by over $4 billion dollars, or nearly 23%. This exponential growth was built upon a slightly decelerated 7% increase in revenue1 accompanied by a nearly 10% decline in operating income2. Although this inverse relationship between valuations and profits seems curious at first glance, there’s really no mystery. The rapid rise in local and network television rights, as well as the continued success of the MLB Advanced Media, continue to expand the multiples upon which the valuations are based. In other words, Forbes thinks the future outlook for industry revenue is positive, and, based on the prevailing trends, it’s easy to see why.

MLB Snapshot, 2003-2012
mlbforbessnap

Note: Revenue for each team is net of stadium debt and revenue sharing.
Source: Forbes.com

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And the first one now. Will later be last. For the times they are a-changin'”.Bob Dylan, lyrics from The Times They Are A-Changin’

Get your scorecards! That eager sales pitch is one of the hallmarks of Opening Day, but this season, the familiar refrain is quickly becoming prerequisite advice for Yankee fans headed to the Bronx on April 1. It’s no joke. At least to the more casual observers, there won’t be many familiar faces taking their place along the first baseline at the Yankees’ home opener next Monday.

Because of injuries and free agent defections, the 2013 Yankees’ Opening Day lineup will look much different than last year, with only three holdovers likely to take the field when the season begins next week. Not since 1996 have the Yankees experienced so much turnover, and in only six other years since at least 1917 have the Bronx Bombers had fewer players make consecutive starts in the season opener.

Yankees’ Most Significant Opening Day Transitions Since 1917
Mostturnover

Note: Includes years with no more than two players making a consecutive Opening Day start.
Source: baseball-reference.com

The three stalwarts expected to be in the 2013 Yankees’ Opening Day lineup are Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia. However, Gardner’s position has yet to be determined. With the addition of Vernon Wells and the likelihood of Jon Lester starting for the Red Sox when the season kicks off, the speedy outfielder could be shifted to center field. If so, that would mean the 2013 alignment would only have two players in the same position as last year’s first game, something that has only happened once before in the DH era (again in 1996).

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(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

What are the Yankees thinking in their pursuit of Vernon Wells?(Photo: Getty Images)

What are the Yankees thinking in their pursuit of Vernon Wells?(Photo: Getty Images)

The Yankees are paying the price for a thrifty off season. Because of the team’s decision to cut costs instead of maintain depth, the Bronx Bombers have been forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel to supplement a roster ravaged by injuries and free agent departures. As a result of that desperation, Brian Cashman appears poised to become the latest GM stuck with one of baseball’s hottest potatos: the contract of Vernon Wells.

According to numerous reports, the Yankees are on the verge of acquiring the former All Star outfielder from the Angels, whose rapid decline as a player has made him the odd man out in a crowded Los Angeles outfield. At first glance, it would appear as if the Yankees are taking a low-risk flier on a veteran, but in this case, the devil really is in the details. Since the ink dried on Wells’ seven-year, $126 million contract with Toronto, the outfielder has become a poster boy for overpriced contracts. So, after doing the Blue Jays a favor by taking over the contract two seasons ago, you can bet the Angels are anxious to pawn off the final two years on the Yankees.

It’s pointless to evaluate the acquisition of Wells without first considering the cost to the Yankees. At the risk of being too blunt, if Brian Cashman sends to the Angels anything more than a journeyman minor leaguer, and if Jerry DiPoto sends back anything less than an overwhelming majority of the $42 million owed to Wells, the trade would be a loss for the Yankees. What’s more, it would be a further indictment of the team’s priorities, not to mention the prudence of adopting a policy of fiscal constraint heading into a season with obvious health-related question marks.

Let’s give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt (even if the organization is starting to use up some of its goodwill). Considering Hal Steinbrenner’s frugality and Brian Cashman’s baseball knowledge, it seems safe to say the Yankees will neither be sending the Angels a prospect nor taking responsibility for a meaningful portion of the contract. With that concern aside, we can examine the prudence of a Wells acquisition without the distraction of all the zeros at the end of his pay check.

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(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

During his days in pinstripes, Chien-Ming Wang was known for his sinker.

During his days in pinstripes, Chien-Ming Wang was known for his sinker.

Over at Baseball Nation, Rob Neyer recently wondered whether ground-ball pitchers are overrated. Using an analogy from his mentor Bill James as a launching point, as well as an anecdotal observation that many of the best pitchers of all time are/were fly ball pitchers, Neyer cast doubt about the perceived proficiency of ground-ball generators.

Although Neyer didn’t provide much detail about James’ analysis or conclusion, which is behind a pay wall, the comments section suggested the sabermetric forefather eventually dispelled many of his doubts about ground-ball pitchers. Unfortunately, there were no statistics provided to back up the claim, so it was either shell out three bucks for a subscription to Bill James Online, or do a quick analysis of my own. The latter is provided below, free of charge (although it may not even be worth that much).

Ground-Ball and Strikeout Classifications
classification

Note: Ultra is +/- 40% of average; Very is +/- 20% of average; High/Low is +/- 10%; Middle is within 10% of average.

The framework for the analysis was to take every qualified season by a starter since 2002, of which there were 961, and then classify them by their relation to the league average ground-ball rate over that span. After segmenting the population in groups ranging from ultra high to ultra low, the composite ERA and WAR/season for each cross section was calculated. The chart below displays the results.

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(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

I told you so! (Photo: Getty Images)

I told you so! (Photo: Getty Images)

For years, the Major League Baseball Players’ Association resisted a comprehensive drug policy out of fear that their constituents’ rights and privacy would be violated. Marvin Miller and Donald Fehr have been vilified by some for their refusal to budge on this issue, with some accusing the two union leaders of aiding and abetting the sport’s steroid culture. However, recent events have proven these concerns to be well founded.

Over the past decade, baseball has enjoyed relative labor peace. The players, led by new union chief Michael Weiner, and the owners, represented by Commissioner Bud Selig, have managed to not only avoid acrimony, but also collaborate on many issues, from economics to rule changes to drug testing. Because of this period of détente, baseball has enjoyed exponential growth and increasing popularity, both worldwide and in the United States. Considering the fruits of this harmonious relationship, it would stand to reason that both sides would be extremely careful about violating the other’s trust. Unfortunately, when it comes to performance enhancing drugs, Selig and his owners have seen fit to abandon reason, opting instead to overzealously pursue even the slightest hint of abuse regardless of the collateral damage. If every action deserves an equal and opposite response, baseball’s current posture regarding the use of steroids seems designed to cancel out the depraved indifference of its past.

Since baseball’s drug testing agreement was implemented, there have been several privacy violations. The highest profile case belongs to Ryan Braun, whom, despite having his failed drug test vacated on appeal, is still regarded by many as being a cheat. Those who believe Braun was guilty anyway probably consider this to be justice. To them, improper testing procedures are only a mere formality. However, regardless of where you stand on his guilt, the validity of Braun’s appeal is really a secondary issue. The most egregious violation occurred when the results of the test were revealed, despite a policy calling for confidentiality until the process had run its course. The leak that thrust his name into the headlines effectively robbed Braun of his due process. Although his camp has stated it doesn’t believe the MLB hierarchy purposely revealed the results, the league is still responsible for the confidentiality of the process. After all, if baseball can’t ensure privacy, then none exists, which means Fehr and Miller were right all along. Continue Reading »

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