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Everybody Hurts: Anatomy of Yankees’ Injury Concerns

March 19, 2013 by William Juliano

Derek Jeter has been scratched from today’s exhibition game against the Phillies because of a “cranky” ankle. Considering the short stop is still in the early stages of his recovery from off season surgery, it makes sense to error on the side of caution. However, the lingering soreness is a reminder of the 2013 Yankees’ vulnerability.

Jeter isn’t the only Bronx Bomber with health concerns. The Yankees currently have no fewer than 15 players who are either currently on the disabled list, rehabbing an off season surgery, coming off a 2012 campaign in which they missed significant time, or posses a history of chronic injury. That’s 60% of what probably would have been the team’s Opening Day roster had the Yankees been able to escape the injury bug. What’s more, with the exception of Robinson Cano, Ichiro Suzuki, and Hiroki Kuroda, an injury cloud hangs over just about every other Yankee who is expected to make a meaningful contribution this year.

Anatomy of the Yankees’ Health Concerns (click to enlarge)
Yankees injuries

Note: Red indicates current injury; purple indicates off season surgery; orange indicates recent or chronic injuries.
Source: baseballprospectus.com

Can the Yankees overcome their aches and pains in 2013? Of course, but it’s not enough for Jeter, CC Sabathia, and Mariano Rivera, among others, to simply take the field; they must perform up to their standards when they do. That might be asking for a lot from an older team like the Yankees, but without much depth to fill in the gaps, there is no margin for error. The bottom line is if the Yankees’ wounded veterans don’t make a full recovery, the team’s prognosis won’t be pretty. So, although the Bronx Bombers are not yet in terminal condition, if the early vital signs don’t improve, the Yankees could be facing a long season on life support.

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Will WBC Pride Give Way to CBA Greed?

March 19, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

If their countrymen don't hold their grown, Dominican amateurs may soon have to suffer the slings and arrows of an international draft. (Photo: AP)

Dominican amateurs may soon suffer the slings and arrows of an international draft. (Photo: AP)

Leave it to Bud Selig to crash his own party. By all but the most cynical accounts, the World Baseball Classic has been a success, and, in no region has that been more true than the Caribbean. As Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic get ready to take their longstanding rivalry to the global stage, baseball should basking in the glow of the international spotlight. Instead, the sport seems more interested in using the event as a backdrop for cost containment.

While baseball nations have been battling it out for the WBC championship, the lords of the realm have been quietly trying to figure out a way to cultivate the talent on display in a more cost effective manner. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, sources inside the game have indicated the owners are willing to make several economic concessions in exchange for an international draft, which, undoubtedly, would have slotting and budgetary requirements similar to those recently imposed on amateur players in the United States. This isn’t the first time baseball’s powers-that-be have floated the idea of extending the draft abroad, but it is the most ironic.

Over the last 25 years, the baseball fortunes of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico have taken divergent paths. Many believe the reason for this is the amateur draft, and the impact can been seen by the names on each team’s roster at the WBC. Whereas Puerto Rico is comprised mostly of local players and journeyman, the Dominican squad is a veritable Major League All Star team. However, if the tournament had been held three decades ago, the opposite would probably have been true. What caused the about-face? In 1989, Puerto Rican players were annexed by the Rule IV draft, and since then, the number of major leaguers from the island have declined precipitously. That’s something the major leaguers on the Dominican roster might want to keep in mind when they look across the field tonight. There, but for the grace of their own convictions, goes the future of baseball in their country.

It doesn’t make sense for teams to invest in Puerto Rican baseball. After all, why spend millions of dollars building academies and promoting the game, when the players you develop can be drafted by one of your competitors? That’s why major league teams and even independent investors have increasingly poured their time and money into mining talent in unregulated places like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. When you think about all the star players that hail from these two countries alone, it’s hard to imagine Major League Baseball enjoying the same amount of domestic and international popularity without maintaining its access to a deep, global talent pool. So, why exactly is the sport trying to kill its golden goose?

Cross Section of Foreign Born Players from Select Countries
internal_cross_section

Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Posted in Baseball, CBA, Draft, International, MLB, WBC | Leave a Comment »

Changes Needed After USA Loss, but Baseball Is the Big Winner in WBC

March 16, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The USA continues to find disappointment at the WBC, but baseball's growing international influence is reason for celebration. (Photo: Getty Images)

The USA continues to find disappointment at the WBC, but baseball’s growing international influence is reason for celebration. (Photo: Getty Images)

The World Baseball Classic is moving on to San Francisco, but Team USA won’t be along for the ride. Following a 4-3 loss to Puerto Rico, the Americans are headed back to their spring training camps in Florida and Arizona, while baseball fans from sea to shining sea try to make sense of another disappointing finish in the burgeoning tournament.

Over the next few days, there’s going to be plenty of accusations and recriminations as a proud baseball nation tries to figure out why it can’t win a tournament dedicated to the sport it invented. And, to be certain, there is plenty of legitimate blame to go around. However, all the suggestions offered and lessons learned must begin from a simple premise: having USA emblazoned across the chest doesn’t mean America can expect to win the WBC.

To those who believe that baseball supremacy is an American birthright, the country’s inability to half heartedly dominate the WBC is reason for concern. In reality, it’s cause for celebration. Since World War II, but especially over the last 30 years, baseball has evolved beyond being just an American game. Not only is the sport being played competitively in more and more countries, including some that seemed unimaginable as recently as 10 years ago, but the percentage of foreign born players has gradually been on the rise. Thanks to an expanding talent pool, the quality of the game has never been better, and the sport’s popularity around the world is on the rise. To anyone but the most strident jingoist, this is a good thing. No, actually, it’s a great thing. Those who love baseball should celebrate its elevation to an International Pastime, not lament its growth beyond U.S. borders.

Team USA doesn't have to wrap itself in the flag, but changes are needed (Photo: AP).

Team USA doesn’t have to wrap itself in the flag, but changes are needed (Photo: AP).

So, what can Team USA do to improve its chances of being successful in a tournament packed with competitors who desperately want to win? The easiest answer is to ramp up passion and emotion to a level commensurate with other nations, but that’s not something that can be manufactured. It’s no shame that baseball players and fans in the U.S. are not as passionate about the WBC as their foreign counterparts. For years, the U.S. and MLB have been the measuring sticks by which other countries’ players and programs measure their success, so it stands to reason that an international tournament will have more appeal to those on foreign soil. Also, it’s probably difficult for U.S. fans to separate Major League Baseball from USA Baseball. Try telling a Yankee fan from the United States that Robinson Cano is not “one of them”, and you’ll see what I mean. Because fans in the U.S. get to watch the world’s best players every day for 162 games, and develop pride in the international collection that represents their home city, transferring that passion to a hastily assembled national team is easier said than done.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, International, MLB, WBC | Leave a Comment »

Boesch Represents Yankees “Best” Option in a Worst Case Scenario

March 15, 2013 by William Juliano

With spring training injuries ravaging the Yankees’ already thin 40-man roster, Brian Cashman has resorted to his best Claude Rains impersonation. In an attempt to fill the team’s many voids, the Yankees’ GM has resorted to “rounding up the usual suspects”, but based on the reaction to some of his recent moves, fans of the team might prefer Cashman try his hand at the “Invisible Man” instead.

Boesch is the latest addition to the Yankees' growing camp of usual suspects.

Boesch is the latest addition to the Yankees’ growing camp of usual suspects.

The latest stop gap signing by the Yankees is Tigers’ outfielder Brennan Boesch, who was released by Detroit earlier in the week and just cleared waivers. One year earlier, Cashman would have received plaudits for acquiring the left handed hitter, but after an abysmal 2012 campaign, Boesch is nothing more than a consolation prize coming at the end of the week in which not one, but two retired veterans turned down a chance to wear the pinstripes and earn some Yankee dollars.

It’s easy to understand why some fans would be critical of the decision to sign Boesch. However, the move makes sense for one simple reason: he is better than the other options currently in camp. Granted, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of the move, but damning with faint praise is better than a total condemnation. In other words, although the signing of Boesch isn’t a bad move, it is a serious indictment of the Yankees’ off season, particularly its decision to make profit margin a priority over roster depth.

At several key positions, the Yankees are being confronted by unattractive options. There are the devils they know – veterans like Juan Rivera, Ben Francisco, Matt Diaz, and Dan Johnson – as well as ones they don’t. This latter group, which some Yankee fans have euphemistically called “the kids”, includes the likes of Ronnier Mustelier, Melky Mesa, and Thomas Neal. Although vastly different in terms of major league experience, these two groups have one unfortunate thing in common: a low probability of success.

Boesch is neither a veteran nor a journeyman minor leaguer. Despite playing three years in the big leagues, the outfielder is actually younger than Mustelier, for example, and only a year older than Mesa. Meanwhile, his 2011 campaign, in which he posted an OPS+ of 116, represents more recent success than any of the veterans vying for a roster spot. That doesn’t make Boesch a sure thing by any stretch, but if the Yankees best plan is to rely on a crap shoot until Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira return, he probably does tilt the odds ever so slightly in their favor.

Posted in Baseball, Free Agents, MLB, Roster Analysis, Spring Training, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Kimbrel’s WBC Meltdown Is Latest Misstep on Center Stage

March 15, 2013 by William Juliano

This wasn't the scene Joe Torre expected when he summoned Craig Kimbrel from Team USA's bullpen.

This wasn’t the scene Joe Torre expected when he summoned Craig Kimbrel from Team USA’s bullpen.

It’s blasphemy to compare anyone to the great Mariano Rivera, but over the past two seasons, Craig Kimbrel has been the next best thing. In fact, in 2012, the Braves’ closer had a season that would standout even if listed among the best years posted by the Yankees’ legend. So, when Joe Torre called upon Kimbrel in last night’s WBC showdown against the Dominican Republic, he probably had a flash back to his days as Yankees’ skipper.  If so, his trip down memory lane came to an abrupt end when the D.R. rallied to win the game.

With an ERA+ of 399 and K/9 rate over 16.7 in 2012, the reputation that preceded Kimbrel into the ninth inning of last night’s game was well deserved, and, one rough outing does little to change that. Still, it’s hard to not come away feeling a little of the bloom has come off Kimbrel’s rose. In some ways, the circumstances of last night’s WBC contest were reminiscent of the 2003 All Star Game. Dodgers’ reliever Eric Gagne entered that year’s Mid Season Classic as the closer du jour, and like Kimbrel now, was considered by many to be the heir apparent to Rivera.  However, when called upon to protect a two-run lead in the eighth, it wasn’t “game over”. Instead, the heralded Gagne walked off the mound with his first and only blown save that season.

Top-10 Seasons by ERA+ and K/9
top10k9andERA

Note: Minimum 60 innings; includes pitchers with ERA+ > 300 and K/9 > 10; ranked by K/9.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Mariano Rivera the Greatest? Gossage Answers Like a Silly Goose

March 11, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Goose Gossage never misses an opportunity to claim he stands shoulder to shoulder with Mariano Rivera. (Photo: Getty Images)

Goose Gossage never misses an opportunity to claim he stands shoulder to shoulder with Mariano Rivera. (Photo: Getty Images)

Mariano Rivera’s job is easy. That’s what former Yankees’ reliever Rich Gossage seems to think. And, he never misses an opportunity to say it. Instead of being a supportive alumnus, whenever Rivera’s place in history is discussed, the Goose acts more like a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

On the same day Rivera announced his intention to retire, Gossage couldn’t resist the temptation to squawk. You see, according to the Goose, although Rivera’s accomplishments are impressive, they don’t really stack up to the performances put forth by the relievers of his generation. Sure, Gossage has always been willing to concede that Rivera is the greatest closer, but when it comes to ranking all relievers, the hard throwing righty maintains that he and his contemporaries deserve extra credit because they pitched longer outings.

Usage Distribution for Gossage and Rivera
Rivera_vs._Goose_Innings

Note: Only includes relief appearances. 1+ = 1 1/3 and 1 2/3; 2+ = 2 1/3 and 2 2/3
Source: Baseball-reference.com

There’s no denying that relievers pitched longer stints in Gossage’s era. What isn’t clear, however, is why the Goose considers that to be a badge honor. What really counts is the accumulation of performances, not the relative length of individual appearances. And, when you compare the two side by side, the statistics say a mouthful, which is a good thing for the humble Rivera, who has never been as boastful as the outspoken Gossage.

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Posted in Baseball, Mariano Rivera, MLB, Yankees | Tagged | 7 Comments »

Cardinals Extend Allen Craig, Continue Trend of Long-Term Deals

March 8, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Earlier in the week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that Allen Craig was patiently awaiting the terms of a new contract for 2013. Apparently, the organization and third-year player couldn’t come to an agreement, so, the two sides decided to commit for five years instead.

Allen Craig might be looking for a real estate agent in St. Louis. (Photo: AP)

Allen Craig might be looking for a real estate agent in St. Louis. (Photo: AP)

Long-term extensions for pre-arbitration players have become common place. However, those contracts have mostly been reserved for young superstars. Although Craig’s offensive performance over the past season and half has certainly been impressive, at age-28, the first baseman/outfielder doesn’t qualify under that banner. Nonetheless, the Cardinals decided to lock-up the slugger for five more years with an additional team option thrown in for good measure.

Does it make sense to lock-up an older player like Craig for so long, especially when he hasn’t fully established himself in the majors? Although any five-year deal comes with risk, the average annual value of just over $6 million has the potential to be a real bargain for the Cardinals. Sure, Craig’s 2012 breakout could end up being a fluke, but if he continues to develop along the same path, the slugger would have quickly reached that salary in arbitration, and then priced himself off the Cardinals altogether once he hit the open market.  Now, if Craig’s emergence proves sustainable, St. Louis will be able to reap the reward of its earlier patience for a longer period and at a fraction of the cost.

The Cardinals’ decision to extend Craig has ramifications that extend throughout the game. If more teams follow suit by locking-up players at all levels of the talent spectrum, the result will be a much thinner crop of free agents. And, by extension, if the law of supply and demand prevails, elite free agents will get that much more expensive. Furthermore, usual consolation prizes like Craig will be older when they finally hit the market, so the risk associated with signing second-tier free agents is sure to increase as well. That’s a bad formula for teams that operate on a budget.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged | 1 Comment »

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