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Flipping Granderson and Gardner Could Be a Flop

February 21, 2013 by William Juliano

Is the Yankees outfield in need of a realignment?

Is the Yankees outfield in need of a realignment?

Costello: The left fielder’s name?
Abbott: Why.
Costello: Because.
Abbott: Oh, he’s center field.

Who is going to play left and center in the Bronx this year? If this was an Abbott & Costello routing, the answer would be “who is on first”. However, for Joe Girardi, the solution isn’t as obvious. That’s why the Yankees are experimenting with the idea of flip flopping Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson in the outfield. Why? Because. Considering the potential benefit, such an abrupt explanation seems sufficient at first glance. If only baseball were that simple.

Because both defensive metrics and the eye test agree that Gardner is a much better outfielder, moving him to center seems like a no-brainer. However, there are no guarantees either player will transition smoothly to what would effectively be a new position. Sure, Gardner has played over 1,000 innings in center, but those have been spread out over four seasons. Meanwhile, Granderson would be a complete stranger in left field, having only played 60 innings at that corner. Learning a new position is hard enough, but when you consider Yankee Stadium’s reputation for having one of the most difficult left fields in all of baseball, the challenge could be all the more daunting.

One of the most compelling reasons to make the switch is Granderson’s poor performance in center field last season. According to fangraphs UZR/150, Granderson’s rating of -18.2 was the worst among all center fielders in 2012 and the sixth worst performance in the last five seasons. Even acknowledging the flaws inherent in UZR/150, such a damning score is hard to ignore. And yet, there are some mitigating factors.

In 2011, when Gardner played left and Granderson covered center, the Yankees had the best outfield in baseball, tallying a combined UZR/150 of 10.2. So, why try to fix what isn’t broken? Who knows, because of the big left field at Yankee Stadium, it might be better for the team to use its best outfielder at that position. That approach worked pretty well two seasons ago, and with Ichiro Suzuki taking over for Nick Swisher in right field, there’s every reason to believe the Yankees’ outfield could once again lead the pack in 2013 without making a change to the alignment.

Top 10 Defensive Outfields in 2011 Based on UZR/150

Team Inn UZR/150
Yankees 4375 10.2
Diamondbacks 4330 8.8
Rays 4347 8.4
Red Sox 4372 7.1
Padres 4348 5.8
Twins 4265 4.9
Brewers 4325 3.8
Astros 4305 3.4
Angels 4395 3.3
Royals 4354 2.3

Source: fangraphs.com

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Posted in Baseball, Roster Analysis, Spring Training, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Yahoo!’s Passan Prints the Legend, but Yankees Have Done OK Developing Pitchers

February 20, 2013 by William Juliano

The trouble with compiling data for the purpose of proving a point is sometimes the final analysis doesn’t match the pre-conceived notion. When this occurs in the world of science, the hypothesis is rejected. In sports writing, however, facts need not get in the way of a good story.

In a recent article at Yahoo! Sports, Jeff Passan, whose body of work stands up against anyone in the business, fell into this trap. According to Passan, the genesis for his article was to test Brian Cashman’s contention that the Yankees have done a pretty good job developing pitching. In order to accomplish that goal, he looked at every pitcher who had debuted in the major leagues over the past five years and calculated the amount of value they provided (i.e., WAR) since then. Based on his data, the Dodgers rated best, the Athletics and Rangers were strong runners-up, and the Astros, Angels and Cubs were horrendous. What about the Yankees? Using overall WAR as a guide, their track record was actually pretty good, something Passan openly acknowledges. Vindication for Cashman? It would seem that way. And yet, despite the evidence he presents to the contrary, Passan strongly concludes, “over the last half-decade, the Yankees have developed pitching depth almost as poorly as any team in the major leagues.”

Don’t view this data in a vacuum. Coke was part of a trade that landed Curtis Granderson. Noesi went to Seattle for Pineda. The innings cutoffs are arbitrary, too. And considering the Yankees lock up a roster spot every time they spend big money in free agency, it is ostensibly tougher to crack their roster than most. – Jeff Passan, Yahoo Sports!, February 19, 2013

In order to support what must have been a pre-conceived notion that the Yankees had done a poor job developing pitching, Passan ostensibly created two new categories (the number of pitchers with at least 25IP and 100IP for each franchise), and in each, the Bronx Bombers rated decidedly below par. If measuring the ability to develop pitchers based upon random innings thresholds seems arbitrary, that’s because it is. To his credit, Passan acknowledges as much. He even discloses a litany of other flaws in the underlying logic of his analysis. And, yet, the narrative was undeterred.

Passan + One: Pitcher Debuts Since 2007
2007-2012debutWAR

Note: Data includes Yahoo! Sports’ research for 2008 to 2012 plus 2007 compiled from BR.com
Source: Baseball-reference.com, Yahoo! Sports

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Posted in Baseball, Draft, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | 5 Comments »

Who Comes After Derek Jeter?

February 19, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Derek Jeter isn't ready to hand over shortstop just yet

Derek Jeter isn’t ready to hand over shortstop just yet

After me the deluge.” – attributed to Louis XV

“Old soldiers never die; they just fade away.” – General Douglas MacArthur

Derek Jeter’s days in pinstripes are numbered. Ask anyone. Like an annual rite, this observation has become a part of Yankees’ Spring Training. Over the past four years, the articles written about the Captain’s inevitable decline have all followed the same formula, as if torn from a book of Mad Libs. Simply enter (1) Jeter’s age, (2) an accomplishment never achieved by a shortstop at least as old, (3) a few poetic metaphors related to time (a clock, hourglass, setting sun, etc.) along with (4) speculation about his next contract, and voilà, you have the first baseball column of spring.

Before anyone gets the impression that I am pointing fingers at others, no one has harped on Derek Jeter’s baseball mortality more than I have (see here, here, and here). And, who can blame us? Because Jeter has been so good…and all good things must come to an end…it’s very easy to understand why so many people are intrigued by his longevity and fixated on when it will come to an end. However, a much more fascinating question than when Jeter will retire is who will replace him once he’s gone?

Yankees’ Starting Shortstop Family Tree

yankeesSSwaterfall

Note: Starting shortstop based on player who had most PAs at the position in a given year.
Source: baseball-reference.com

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Posted in Baseball, Free Agents, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Concern About Yankees Age Is Old News

February 15, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

These are NOT the 2013 Yankees. (Photo: NY Daily News)

These are NOT the 2013 Yankees. (Photo: NY Daily News)

Forget about sabermetrics. When it comes to evaluating the 2013 Yankees, geriatrics might be more appropriate. Although, it seems like just yesterday when a youthful core of Baby Bombers were breaking onto the scene, they are all grown up now…and then some. Time sure flies when you’re having fun.

Age hasn’t suddenly crept up on the Yankees. In fact, it’s really an old story. For most of the past 10 years, the Yankees have regularly fielded a relatively more mature team. Some years, it’s been the pitching that was long in the tooth, and other seasons, the lineup has had some extra mileage. So, what makes this year different? The Yankees are hoping the answer is nothing.

Oldest Offenses in MLB History

Year Team W-L% Finish OPS+ BatAge
2006 San Francisco Giants 0.472 3rd of 5 90 33.6
1998 Baltimore Orioles 0.488 4th of 5 107 33.1
2012 New York Yankees 0.586 1st of 5 112 32.7
2007 San Francisco Giants 0.438 5th of 5 82 32.7
1999 Baltimore Orioles 0.481 4th of 5 108 32.5
2005 New York Yankees 0.586 1st of 5 115 32.4
1945 Detroit Tigers 0.575 1st of 8 93 32.4
2004 New York Yankees 0.623 1st of 5 111 32.3
1982 California Angels 0.574 1st of 7 114 32.3
2005 San Francisco Giants 0.463 3rd of 5 86 32.2

Note: BatAge = Sum of Age*(PA+G) divided by Sum of (PA+G).
Source: Baseball-reference.com

In 2012, the average age of the Yankees’ offense was 32.7 years (weighted based on plate appearances), which surpassed the 2005 team as the oldest in franchise history. Even more significantly, the Bronx Bombers’ bats collectively ranked as the third oldest of all time (out of 2,746 teams). Still, despite what so many people seem to view as a handicap, the Yankees were spry enough to score the second most runs in baseball, while posting an impressive OPS+ of 112. Unlike youth, run production isn’t necessarily wasted on the young.

So, what does Father Time have in store for the 2013 Yankees’ offense? Even though Alex Rodriguez will miss considerable time and Raul Ibanez has shuffled off to Seattle to become an ancient Mariner, the 2013 Yankees are not only one year older, but the offense will likely continue to rely heavily on veteran players. As result, the average age of the team’s hitters could top out at 32.8, based upon Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections. Granted, some of the PECOTA assumptions seem suspect, particularly the playing time allotted to David Adams, Austine Romine, and Eduardo Nunez, but those estimates are actually skewed toward youth. In other words, this year’s offense isn’t getting any younger.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | 1 Comment »

It Happens Every Spring: A 112-Year Retrospective of Yankees Spring Training

February 12, 2013 by William Juliano

(This post was originally published on February 16, 2011)

For 17 years, Tampa has been the Yankees’ spring training home, but it still seems like just yesterday when the team’s camp was located down the coast in Ft. Lauderdale. I am sure most fans who grew up in the 1970s and 1980s still reflexively hearken back to those days of yore, while the real old timers’ memories probably take them all the way back to St. Petersburg, where Yankees’ legends from Ruth to Mantle toiled under the Florida sun.

Over the years, spring training has evolved significantly. Once upon a time, it was a pre-season retreat designed to help out-of-shape ballplayers shed the pounds added over the winter. In the early part of the last century, before even reporting to camp, players would often attend spas in places like Hot Springs, where they would purge their bodies of the inequities from the offseason. Then, games would either be played among split squads (in the old days, the camps would be split into teams of veterans and hopeful rookies, the latter often called Yannigans) or against local minor league and college ballclubs. Finally, the teams would barnstorm their way back up north before finally kicking off the regular season.

Today, spring training is more big business than quaint tradition. Thanks to the growing competition between cities in Arizona and Florida (each state now hosts 15 major league clubs), teams have been able to extract sweetheart stadium deals, allowing them to turn the exhibition season into a significant profit center. Still, at the heart of spring training is hope and renewal, as teams begin the long journey that is the baseball season.

The Yankees’ spring history has been a journey all its own. Below is an outline of some significant mileposts along the way.

Yankees’ Spring Training Homes Since 1901

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Spring Training, Yankee History, Yankees | 2 Comments »

Yankees’ Agreement with Ticketmaster a Plus for Season Plan Holders, but Buyers Beware

February 11, 2013 by William Juliano

A few months back when the Yankees’ first announced plans to opt out of Major League Baseball’s secondary market agreement with StubHub, I suggested that early critics withhold judgment until after the details were released. Well, the Yankees have finally gotten around to unveiling its new relationship with Ticketmaster’s Ticket Exchange, so it’s time to take the gloves off.

From a Seller’s perspective, the new market appears to be more favorable, provided the tickets are offered through their season plan account. Whereas StubHub charges a 15% sellers commission, the Yankees will only take 5% from their licensees. However, tickets sold through Ticketmaster will carry the same 15% commission if the seller is an individual holder.

Ticket Exchange Screenshot – Price Floor

price floor

Source: ticketsnow.com/yankees

Another advantage to the seller is a price floor. Although initial announcements suggested that a price floor had not yet been established, a call to Ticketmaster confirmed the Yankees would be setting a minimum price. The Ticketmaster agent could not confirm whether a flat rate would be used for all sections, but an early test drive of the system revealed an $11 minimum listing on a $31 spring training ticket, which equates to a discount no greater than 65% of the primary cost. It should be noted that the Ticketmaster agent was unsure whether the Yankees are using a rate-based system to establish its floors. As a result, it’s possible the $11 price floor indicated in the screenshot above is a flat figure. However, the agent also stated that most Ticket Exchange partners base their floors on a percentage of face value, and this seems to be a common sense approach.

Normally, tickets sold for only 35% of face value would be considered a bargain, but StubHub has set the bar high, or low, depending on one’s perspective. For sellers, the price floor has the potential to provide a reprieve from bargain basement listings on StubHub, which in some cases have amounted to pennies on the dollar. Of course, just because the Yankees have opted out of their agreement with StubHub doesn’t mean those listings will go away. In fact, a quick scan of available inventory reveals more tickets and cheaper price on StubHub. Does that mean buyers will bypass Ticket Exchange, rendering the advantages moot? It’s all a matter of convenience and trust.

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Posted in Baseball, Business and Finance, Yankees | Tagged , | 8 Comments »

PECOTA Yankee Forecast Is Only Partly Sunny

February 11, 2013 by William Juliano

BPlogoEven though the real Pecota Day isn’t until February 16, Baseball Prospectus has jumped the gun and released the latest round of its player projections. With the caveat that even the most sophisticated projection systems are rough estimates at best, following is a quick break down of what BP thinks about the 2013 Yankees.

Offense

Not surprisingly, PECOTA predicts Robinson Cano will lead the Bronx Bombers’ offense in 2013, but with numbers well below his three-year average. In fact, with an estimated WARP (wins above replacement player) below 5, Cano falls under the approximate threshold for what BP informally considers “great”, leaving the Yankees without an elite performer in the upcoming season. After the All Star second baseman, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis and Brett Gardner check in with WARPs of 3.7, 3.3, 3.0, and 2.9, respectively. No one else registers an above-average reading, including Derek Jeter, whom PECOTA predicts will produce a WARP of 1.3, or half of last season’s output.

Pitching

C.C. Sabathia will again be the Yankees’ ace, according to PECOTA, which projects the big lefty with a 17-10 record and 3.20 ERA in over 220 innings, good for a WARP of 5.0. However, BP’s prognostications don’t think as highly of the rest of the starting rotation. Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, and Ivan Nova/Michael Pineda round out the staff with WARPs ranging from 1.5 to 2.3, suggesting relative mediocrity following Sabathia’s lead.

Amongst the relievers, PECOTA expects a bounce back year for Mariano Rivera (not even an objective system would be foolish enough to bet against Mariano Rivera) as well as strong contributions from David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain. This bullpen triumvirate is projected to pitch 168 innings combined with a cumulative WARP of 3.8. Aside from that trio, PECOTA predicts rookie Mike Montgomery will be the team’s most valuable reliever, with veterans Boone Logan, Clay Rapada, and David Aardsma chipping in as well.

If you add up the wins and losses that PECOTA forecasts for each pitcher, the Yankees’ record would be 92-69 (the other game a victim of rounding, or maybe a rain out). Although not exactly a dire prediction, in the American League, 92 wins doesn’t guarantee participation in the postseason. Of course, you don’t need a sophisticated projection system to tell you the Bronx Bombers’ margin for error will be much smaller in 2013. In fact, based on the gloomy tone of the off season, more than a few Yankee fans would probably sign up for 92 wins and take their chances. Who knows, maybe Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman would too?

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