The Captain's Blog

Making Sense, and Cents, of an Extension for Robinson Cano

February 9, 2013 by William Juliano

Should the Yankees try to sign Robinson Cano to an extension before the season? Following comments from Hal Steinbrenner that alluded to preliminary negotiations with the All Star second baseman, that question has been foremost on the minds of the team’s legion of fans.

Should the Yankees sign Cano to an extension?

The best answer is the Yankees should have re-signed Cano last year, but the team has stubbornly held to a “no extensions” policy despite the changing trends throughout the game. With that opportunity now past, the advantages of giving Cano a new deal before the current one expires are much less, but a case can still be made.

Perhaps the most compelling reason to re-sign Cano now is the luxury tax implications. Because Cano is playing under a club option in 2013, the $15 million he is owed is applied straight up to this year’s payroll calculation. However, if that amount was rolled into a long-term extension, the Yankees could use the extra year and lower salary to reduce the average annual value (AAV) of Cano’s new contract.

Since Alex Rodriguez signed his first mega-deal with the Rangers, no player has surpassed his $25.2 million average salary. So, it seems fair to assume Cano’s new deal will also fall just below that benchmark. For the purpose of this exercise, let’s assume the second baseman would agree to a contract worth exactly that amount per season. But, what about the years? Although nine- and 10-year contracts have become increasingly popular for younger stars, five to seven years have been more the norm for players who become free agents over 30. Once again, we’ll take the high end of this range and assume Cano would be amenable to a contract extension worth $175 million over seven years (if that sounds familiar, it’s because Felix Hernandez just signed at those very terms).

Because Cano is not yet a free agent, and there is always a risk that either injury or poor performance could dampen his salary demands next winter, the Yankees should be able to negotiate more favorable terms. However, using these maximum assumptions allows us to estimate a high-end AAV savings between an extension and a new contract signed after the 2013 season.

AAV Comparison of Hypothetical Cano Contracts

Contract	Total	AAV
2013	$15,000,000	$15,000,000
2014-2020	$175,000,000	$25,000,000
Combined	$190,000,000	$23,750,000

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, CBA, Free Agents, Hal Steinbrenner, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Robinson Cano | 3 Comments »

King Felix Is Worth His Ransom

February 8, 2013 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

It’s good to be King. (Photo: AP)

Long-term contracts rarely end well, especially for pitchers. That’s the conventional wisdom at least. Although that position is probably too extreme when you look at the history of long-term deals, there’s obvious truth in it. Any time an organization shells out big bucks to one player, they are taking a sizable risk. However, some risks are better than others.

The trade market for Felix Hernandez officially closed yesterday when the Mariners signed their ace right hander to a seven-year deal fit for a king. At $175 million in total and $25 million per year, the contract makes Hernandez the highest paid pitcher in major league history (excluding Roger Clemens’ pro rated salary of $28 million in 2007). And, you know what? He deserves every penny.

Top-10 Average Annual Salaries for a Pitcher

Pitcher	AAV	Total	Years
Felix Hernandez	$ 25,000,000	$ 175,000,000	2013-19
Zack Greinke	$ 24,500,000	$ 147,000,000	2013-18
CC Sabathia	$ 24,400,000	$ 122,000,000	2012-16
Cole Hamels	$ 24,000,000	$ 144,000,000	2013-18
Cliff Lee	$ 24,000,000	$ 120,000,000	2011-15
CC Sabathia	$ 23,000,000	$ 161,000,000	2009-15
Johan Santana	$ 22,916,677	$ 137,500,000	2008-13
Matt Cain	$ 21,250,000	$ 127,500,000	2012-17
Tim Lincecum	$ 21,250,000	$ 42,500,000	2012-13
Roy Halladay	$ 20,000,000	$ 60,000,000	2011-13

Source: Cots Contracts

Since breaking into the major leagues in 2005, Felix Hernandez has consistently ranked among the best pitchers in the game. Over that span, the righty has compiled an ERA+ of 127 in 1,620 innings, a mark bettered by only five others with at least 1,200 innings, and fWAR of 38.3. On a performance basis, Hernandez has been money in the bank, so it’s about time the Mariners returned the favor.

Another impressive statistic in Hernandez’ favor is 27, the age at which he starts his new contract. Unlike most free agent deals, which are signed when a player is about to exit his prime, Hernandez is just beginning his golden years. Granted, the Mariners’ righty has logged a lot more innings than most 27-year olds, but it’s equally notable that he has done so without a significant injury. Sure, his velocity has been in decline and his ERA+ has fallen from historic levels in 2009-2010, but his peripherals remain consistent and his durability unquestioned. That doesn’t guarantee Hernandez will continue his dominance for the next seven years, but it should earn him the benefit of the doubt.

Aside from performance and projections, Hernandez’ hefty payday is well deserved for another reason: economics. Baseball is currently experiencing a boom cycle. With revenues exploding, thanks in large part to the voracious appetite of regional sports networks, there is plenty of money to go around. So, why shouldn’t the best players get their share? In that sense, Hernandez’ salary is no more inflated than the exorbitant rights fees being paid to teams. Is $175 million too much for Hernandez? Is $7 billion too much to air Dodgers’ games? You decide.

Posted in Baseball, Free Agents, MLB | Tagged Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners | 1 Comment »

Media, Not Players Are Most Guilty by Association with Biogenesis

February 7, 2013 by William Juliano

Biogenesis has become the latest scarlet letter in Major League Baseball. Like BALCO before it, simply being mentioned in the same sentence has become the equivalent of a conviction. However, this guilt by association is without due process.

Is Biogenesis really another BALCO?

Unlike BALCO, which became a household name only after federal authorities raided the Bay Area lab, criminal charges have not been filed against Biogenesis or its controversial head, Anthony Bosch. And, although Bosch had been the subject of a DEA investigation, it’s important to note that Biogenesis was not raided, nor was it closed because of government intervention. Biogenesis simply went out of business.

At this point, it doesn’t matter that BALCO and Biogenesis are really miles apart, not only in geographical proximity, but also corroborated wrong doing. By immediately christening the clinic as the “East Coast Balco”, the media has essentially served as judge and jury, and then proceeded to convict several players in the court of public opinion. In the Miami NewTimes, Alex Rodriguez was the headliner who attracted most of the attention, but Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez and Yasmani Grandal were named as well. Then, Yahoo! Sports jumped into the fray, naming Ryan Braun (another sexy name), Francisco Cervelli, and Danny Valencia as being linked to Biogensis. Finally, not to be out done, the New York Daily News chipped in with Jesus Montero, while Sports Illustrated threw its hat into the ring with Jhonny Peralta. Who’s next? Inquiring minds want to know.

In any investigation, information often leaks out in dribs and drabs. However, in this case, all of the names subsequently revealed were known to the Miami NewTimes, which published the original story. So, what explains its decision to withhold the identities of some players? An “abundance of caution”, according to the newspaper. It’s hard to give the NewTimes too much credit, considering the paper did smear several other players based on the cryptic writing in notebooks that may or may not have belonged to Bosch. However, the subsequent revelation of players who were not mentioned in the context of potential PED use is what’s most disturbing.

The players named in the various articles really have no recourse. All have issued public denials, but those statements have been treated like footnotes. The real story is their link to Biogenesis, regardless of how tenuous it may be. As a result, and to varying degrees, their reputations are now permanently stained. Even though there weren’t overt allegations leveled against most of the players cited, the pejorative context is still damning. What’s worse, all of the publications involved had to know this would be the effect. In fact, they were probably banking on it. The controversy, after all, is what generates page views.

Posted in Baseball, Media, MLB, PEDs | 1 Comment »

Awful Astros Could Alter Course of American League

February 6, 2013 by William Juliano

Houston, we have a problem. Fifty-one years after debuting as a franchise, the Astros are poised to enter this season as an expansion team for the second time. Not only is Houston coming off consecutive seasons that easily rank as the two worst in franchise history, but the team is also moving up in class by relocating to the American League. In other words, the Astros will likely remain grounded in 2013.

Most Losses in a Three-Year Span, 1901-2012

Team	Years	W	L	W%
Mets	1962-1964	144	340	0.298
Mets	1963-1965	154	332	0.317
Athletics	1915-1917	134	324	0.293
Phillies	1940-1942	135	323	0.295
Tigers	2001-2003	164	321	0.338
Phillies	1939-1941	138	320	0.301
Blue Jays	1977-1979	166	318	0.343
Pirates	1952-1954	145	317	0.314
Browns	1937-1939	144	316	0.313
Mets	1964-1966	169	316	0.348

Source: baseball-reference.com

So, just how bad will the Astros be this season? The answer to that question is kind of like the punchline to a joke, which is basically what the Astros have been for the past two seasons. After going its first 50 years without a 100-loss season, Houston has since made up for lost time, dropping 106 and 107 in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Only five other franchises on seven other occasions have lost as many games in two straight years (the Mets did it consecutively from 1962 to 1965). The Astros have been so bad of late, it’s hard to imagine they could get any worse. However, there are many reasons to expect another long year in Houston…about 25 million to be exact. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Houston Astros | 3 Comments »

Breaking Down Keith Law’s 2013 Top-100 Prospect List

February 5, 2013 by William Juliano

It’s prospecting season for the baseball media’s minor league evaluators, the highlight of which has become the annual ranking compiled by former Blue Jays executive and current ESPN contributor Keith Law. What follows is a breakdown of Law’s rankings along with commentary about some of the selections (for last year’s breakdown, click here).

Keith Law’s 2013 Top-100 Prospect List, by Franchise (click to enlarge)

Note: Prospect Score is a cumulative total based on the assignment of a score to each ranking (100 for #1 to 1 for #100). It is a proprietary calculation not endorsed by Mr. Law and not intended to suggest the ranking is linear.
Source: ESPN.com

The Minnesota Twins, who catapulted from 14th to 4th in Law’s organization rankings, placed seven prospects with the top-100, besting the Padres and Rays, who each had six. The Twins also led the pack with a prospect score of 399, which represents the inverse sum of each individual player’s ranking. All seven of Minnesota’s placements ranked within the top-65, led by a pair of 19-year olds: third baseman Miguel Sano (11) and center fielder Byron Buxton (22).

Another team with both quantity and quality on the list was the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs had five prospects crack the top-100, but were also one of only four teams with two minor leaguers in the top-20, joining the Mariners, Indians, and Mets. Although the Mets ranked 14th as an organization and 16th in terms of prospect score, Sandy Alderson’s farm system was the first to place two players on the list, with Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud listed at 12th and 13th.

Although every team was represented on the list, five organizations had only one prospect ranked, and, not surprisingly, all placed low in Law’s organization rankings. Only the Athletics, who boast the 10th best prospect on the list with 19-year old SS Addison Russell, finished higher than 25th in the organization rankings. In addition to Oakland, the “have nots” included the Tigers, White Sox, Brewers, and Angels, the latter plummeting from 15th to dead last in the organizational ranking.

The Yankees placed four prospects on the top-100 list for the second year in a row, but the turnover was 50%. Because of injury and poor performance, respectively, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances dropped out of the ranking, but Tyler Austin (52) and Slade Heathcott (57) took their place. The two outfielders joined Gary Sanchez (18) and Mason Williams (35), who were holdovers from last year. Although Williams’ ranking was stable compared to the 2012 list, Sanchez catapulted 37 slots. Also worth noting is Jose Ramirez just missed cracking the top-100, according to Law, who cited injury concerns as a reason for keeping the 23-year old hard throwing righty off the list (click here for an analysis of the Yankees’ organization ranking and the franchise’s growing dependence on prospects). Had Ramirez made the list, he would have reprented the Bronx Bombers only pitcher in the top-100. With four position players ranked, the Yankees were the only team with at least three selections, but no pitchers.

Posted in Baseball, Mets, Minors, MLB, Prospects, Red Sox, Yankees | Tagged ESPN, Keith Law | 1 Comment »

Yankees Place 10th in Keith Law’s Prospect Ranking; Team Needs Strong Farm More than Ever

February 4, 2013 by William Juliano

Thanks to the constraints of a new austerity plan, the Yankees have not had a very inspiring off season. And, if the team continues to chart the same financial course, the next several winters could be just as barren. Without free agent signings and blockbuster trades to supply the team’s deficiencies, the Bronx Bombers could become increasingly dependent on their own minor league system for sustenance. Are the Yankees prepared to become subsistence farmers? At least according to ESPN’s Keith Law, there may be reason to think a bumper crop is on its way to the Bronx.

For the second consecutive season, Law rated the Yankees’ farm system 10th overall, but the team’s stable position in the rankings suggests a more robust prospect pipeline when you consider the injuries to Jose Campos and Manny Banuelos as well as the severe regression of Dellin Betances. Even without those three pitching prospects figuring as prominently in 2013, the Yankees maintained their ranking on the strength of a developing core of position players, a group from which Law suggests “three above-average or better regulars” could emerge.

Keith Laws’ Yearly Organizational Rankings for AL East, 2009-2013

Source: ESPN.com

Posted in Baseball, Minors, MLB, Prospects, Yankees | Tagged Keith Law | Leave a Comment »

Baseball Deserves Its Double Standard

February 2, 2013 by William Juliano

Ray Lewis and Alex Rodriquez were at the center of PED-related firestorms, but despite Lewis being available to the media during Super Bowl week, Arod seemed to garner the most scrutiny.

The headlines during Super Bowl week have included two scandals involving performance enhancing drugs: one involving Ray Lewis and the other featuring Alex Rodriguez. Considering the proximity to football’s big game, Sports Illustrated’s report on Lewis’ alleged use of a banned substance was probably the most relevant story. However, the accusations leveled against Arod caused the biggest stir. Go figure.

Why was Alex Rodriguez in particular, and baseball in general, at the center of the week’s PED firestorm, when even more damning allegations were made about Lewis, who was preparing to play in the Super Bowl? The answer is simple. Baseball is subject to a double standard.

Despite having what most agree is the most comprehensive testing program in team sports, MLB is continually maligned because of its perceived steroid problem. Meanwhile, the public and media regularly look the other way when the same smoking guns go off in the NFL. The public’s indifference toward PED use in football seems even more incongruous when juxtaposed against the growing health epidemic in the NFL, but no one really seems to care about those potentially dangerous implications. Instead, the public has saved its righteous indignation for baseball. Apparently, the integrity of baseball players’ statistics is more important than football players’ lives.

Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, NFL, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

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