The Captain's Blog

The Historical Cost of Baseball Greatness; BR.com Adds Gold Mine of Salary Data

December 21, 2012 by William Juliano

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that baseball players are an inflationary commodity (click here for a yearly progression of highest paid players), but for those who need proof, baseball-reference.com has significantly bolstered its salary database with the addition of information from Dr. Michael Haupert of UW-LaCrosse. Dr. Haupert obtained his data by searching the contract archives at the Hall of Fame, coming away with salary figures for over 7,000 players from 1915 to 1969.

Baseball salaries have grown exponentially since the beginning of the free agent era, first rising quickly from artificially depressed levels and then continuing upward to keep pace with expanding industry revenue. Because of the different dynamics involved throughout the years, salary comparisons are sketchy at best. They are, however, interesting. And, although Haupert’s information is by no means complete, nor infallibly accurate, having a more extensive collection of salary figures makes the comparisons more meaningful. Listed below are the top-15 hitters and pitchers in baseball history, ranked by bWAR (so, more of a quantitative than qualitative list in some cases), alongside their career salary figures, both in nominal terms and adjusted for inflation, along with a few observations about the data contained therein.

Career Earnings of Top-15 Hitters

			Career Earnings
Player	WAR	PA	Actual	Adjusted*
Babe Ruth	159.2	10620	$ 1,020,000	$ 15,424,274
Barry Bonds	158.1	12606	$ 188,245,322	$ 248,364,453
Willie Mays	150.8	12496	$ 1,945,000	$ 13,412,460
Ty Cobb	144.9	13078	$ 491,233	$ 7,767,983
Hank Aaron	137.3	13941	$ 2,118,500	$ 12,365,225
Tris Speaker	127.8	11991	$ 322,000	$ 4,945,683
Rogers Hornsby	124.6	9481	$ 470,032	$ 6,935,017
Stan Musial	123.4	12717	$ 980,050	$ 8,561,062
Ted Williams	119.8	9788	$ 1,092,000	$ 10,252,919
Eddie Collins	118.5	12040	$ 259,200	$ 3,939,703
Alex Rodriguez	111.4	11163	$ 325,416,252	$ 373,633,320
Honus Wagner	110	9640	$ 138,500	$ 3,364,231
Lou Gehrig	108.5	9663	$ 416,400	$ 6,617,314
Rickey Henderson	106.8	13346	$ 44,525,000	$ 74,951,099
Mickey Mantle	105.5	9907	$ 1,128,000	$ 8,591,911

*Salary adjusted for inflation based on CPI.
Notes on missing data: Speaker: Excludes 1907-1912, 1921; Hornsby: Excludes 1924; Collins: Excludes: 1906, 1908-1912, 1914

Source: baseball-reference.com

Posted in All Star Game, Arod, Baseball, Baseball History, Yankees | Tagged Babe Ruth | 1 Comment »

Blue Jays Face Historical Challenge in Pursuit of A.L. East Top Perch

December 19, 2012 by William Juliano

Blue Jays fans have plenty of choices when it comes to buying a new jersey. (Photo: Yahoo! Canada)

Even before obtaining reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the Mets, the Blue Jays could boast of an impressive offseason shopping spree. Earlier in the winter, the team bolstered its pitching staff by acquiring Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson from the Marlins, and then propped up the offense by signing outfielder Melky Cabrera. The team’s corporate owner, Rogers Communications, has always had the money to spend like the other big boys of the A.L. East, and, apparently, in 2013 the company has decided to go all in.

Thanks to GM Alex Anthopoulos’ winter haul, anticipation for the baseball season in Toronto has already pushed the calendar toward spring. Not only do the many additions to the roster auger well for the upcoming season, but the team has many other reasons to be optimistic. Improved health for Jose Bautista, Brandon Morrow, and Sergio Santos, among others from the team’s extensive 2012 disabled list, could alone account for a significant improvement. Also, is Ricky Romero really that bad? Before last year, the lefty was considered one of the best young starters in the game, so, even if he doesn’t rebound to that level, chances are he won’t again rank statistically among the worst. Brett Lawrie is another reason to be bullish on Toronto. The young third baseman, who had a solid first full season in 2012, has all the makings of a star, and, if he follows that trajectory modestly, the Blue Jays will reap the benefits.

It’s easy to make a compelling argument for why the Blue Jays will be a much better team in 2013. For all the reasons cited above, Toronto is quickly becoming a fashionable pick to win the A.L. East. However, are those piling onto the Blue Jays’ bandwagon being just a little premature? After all, in order for the Blue Jays to gain the top perch in the division, they’ll need to register a monumental improvement. Based on the median of 97 wins that have been needed to finish first in the A.L. East during the divisional era (excluding the strike-shortened 1995 season), Toronto would have to add 24 to their 2012 total. Is that a reasonable expectation? Let’s see what history has to say.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Free Agents, Hot Stove, Yankees | Tagged Toronto Blue Jays | 1 Comment »

Dodger Dough Doesn’t Stack Up to Yankee Dollar

December 15, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The Boss wouldn’t have been impressed by the Dodgers’ spending spree.

If George Steinbrenner were alive today, no one would be talking about how much money the Los Angeles Dodgers are spending.

A popular meme surrounding the Yankees revolves around comparing how the team is being operated now to the modus operandi that prevailed under the Boss. Usually, the comparison is intended to juxtapose the organization’s new cost conscious approach against the unfettered spending that occurred under Steinbrenner’s regime. So, with the Dodgers poised to out-Yankee the Yankees, and out-Steinbrenner his son, it’s only natural to think about how the Boss would have reacted to the all of the money being spent in Los Angeles.

By the time the Dodgers get around to putting their wallet away, the team could have a payroll that eclipses the highest total doled out by the Yankees in any one year. However, as Wendy Thurm illustrated in a recent post at Fangraphs, when you adjust for inflation and/or compare payroll to industry revenue, the 2013 Dodgers won’t be significantly more expensive than the Bronx Bombers of recent vintage, if at all. In fact, if baseball salary inflation was used as an escalator, instead of the consumer price index used in Thurm’s analysis (the price of pitching being a little more volatile than milk and eggs), this year’s Dodger payroll wouldn’t even come close to some of the price tags paid by the Yankees in the middle of the last decade.

Yankees’ Payroll, Real and Adjusted, 2001, 2003-2012

Note: CPI is an inflation adjustment; CAGR represents the compounded annual growth rate for salaries experienced in each time period. Each adjustment attempts to portray past expenditures in current terms.
Source: Cots Contracts and Forbes

Posted in Baseball, Business and Finance, George M. Steinbrenner, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 Comment »

Power Outage: 2013 Yankees Could Be Starved for Homers

December 12, 2012 by William Juliano

Last season, some Yankee fans complained that the team’s lineup of sluggers hit too many home runs. This winter, the organization has apparently endeavored to correct that problem. Who says the Evil Empire isn’t responsive to its fan base?

According to several reports, the Yankees are close to re- signing Ichiro Suzuki, who, along with Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson, would give the team a lefty-laden outfield. More Bronx Burners than Bombers, this trio isn’t likely to match the power supplied by last year’s contingent, so, if the Yankees hope to maintain a league leading offense, they’ll probably have to do quite a bit more manufacturing.

Yankees’ Historical Home Run Production from Outfield, 1961-2012

Note: Includes PH home runs by outfielders who remained in the game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even if you assume Granderson, Suzuki, and Gardner all match their season high home run total, it would only amount to 65 home runs, or nearly one-third less than the 91 posted last season by the team’s outfield. However, a deeper look at the team’s historical home run contribution from the outfield reveals that this total would not be far from the norm. In fact, it would exactly equal the average output contributed by the outfield over the previous 10 seasons (2002 to 2011).

It’s probably wishful thinking to assume all three outfielders will hit their career highs in 2012. However, even if you project their 2013 totals based on last year’s home run rates and variable playing time assumptions, the final tally still comes close to 65. So, even if the Yankees enter the season with a light hitting outfield, it doesn’t mean the team will necessarily suffer a power outage.

Yankees’ 2013 Outfield Power Scenarios

	Career Best			2013
Player	High	Year	2012 HR/PA*	Proj. PAs	Proj. HR
Curtis Granderson	43	2012	0.063	650	41
Ichiro Suzuki	15	2005	0.012	550	7
Brett Gardner	7	2011	0.021	550	11
Total	65			1750	59

*Suzuki’s 2012 HR/PA as a Yankee; Gardner’s 2011 HR/PA; Granderson’s 2012 HR/PA.
Note: Yankees have averaged 2,135 outfielder PAs over the past 10 seasons, so assumptions above would leave 385 PAs for additional outfielders.

Posted in Baseball, Free Agents, Hot Stove, MLB, Yankees | Tagged Ichiro | 4 Comments »

The Hubbub Over StubHub

December 11, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Will the Yankees’ new agreement with Ticketmaster help stem the team’s slow decline in attendance?

Over the past few years, I’ve written extensively (here and here) about the precarious relationship between StubHub and Major League Baseball, particularly as it pertains to the cannibalization of primary market ticket sales. So, it wasn’t much of a surprise when the Yankees decided to opt out of MLB’s just-renewed deal with the on-line ticket broker, opting to form a relationship with Ticketmaster instead. And, almost as predictable was the mound of criticism heaped upon the team for making the switch. Unfortunately, much of the anger has been misguided and many of the underlying arguments have been based on a poor economic foundation.

As a season ticket holder, I would like to believe that the team’s new relationship with Ticketmaster will be more fan friendly, but I can not…at least not yet. The reason is because terms of the deal have not been disclosed. Without key details, it’s impossible to compare the merits of the Yankees’ new platform to StubHub. Will the fees be lower or higher? When will the blackout apply? Is there going to be a higher price floor? All of these issues weigh heavily on an evaluation of the deal, but until they are known, it’s not only impossible, but irresponsible, to make broad claims about the Yankees’ motives and the impact on fans.

Although the details behind the Yankees’ arrangement with Ticketmaster have not been disclosed, the team’s dissatisfaction with StubHub is well known. According to the team, StubHub’s algorithm, which gradually lowers prices until the blackout period, was leading to sales well below face value, and often pennies on the dollar. Some have argued that this situation is a function of a fair market, so the Yankees, being good capitalists, should either accept the secondary prices or lower the value of the tickets they sell directly to the consumer. That might seem like a sound position, but it ignores several economic fundamentals.

StubHub is a market place skewed heavily toward buyers, which makes sense because, until recently, the online broker charged a flat fee for transactions. Not only is the platform designed to generate lower sales prices, but all of the transparency is weighted toward the buyer as well. In a perfect market, buyers and sellers have equal access to information, but on a secondary market for tickets, information flows one way. Whereas buyers can see the entire inventory of available tickets, sellers have no idea how to gauge demand. Similarly, buyers know the seller’s deadline, so they can simply wait them out for a lower price. Further complicating matters is many sellers are offering a fungible product which, in some cases, is still being sold on the primary market. In other words, sellers on StubHub are being disadvantaged from all angles.

Posted in Baseball, Business and Finance, MLB, Yankee Stadium, Yankees | Tagged StubHub | 4 Comments »

Experts Sling Arrows, but Shields Gives Royals Fighting Chance

December 10, 2012 by William Juliano

A six year, $147 million contract is too rich for the Kansas City Royals’ blood. So, when Zack Greinke agreed to terms with the Dodgers on the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, general manager Dayton Moore probably saw the handwriting on the wall. Although the Royals weren’t a player for Greinke, the enormous price tag for a starting pitcher with a career ERA+ of 114 must have signaled to the general manager that not only were the game’s elite hurlers out of his financial reach, but now, even the second tier was as well.

James Shields will be paid less over the next two seasons than Zack Greinke in one.

In 2011 and 2012, James Shields, who is owed only $21 million over the next two seasons, provided more value than Greinke, according to both versions of WAR. Had he hit the open market this winter, the Tampa Rays’ right hander would have probably received a contract not too far removed from the mega-deal signed by Greinke. In other words, the Royals would have never been able to afford him. However, by acquiring Shields from the Rays in a six-player trade, Moore was able to get his top flight starter at a fraction of the cost.

Going forward, the true cost of the trade to the Royals won’t be measured in dollars, but the value of the prospects they sent to the Rays in exchange for Shields and fellow righty Wade Davis. Although Jake Odorizzi and, to a lesser extent, Mike Montgomery are well thought of pitching prospects, the real blue chip in the trade was Wil Myers, a righty swinging corner outfield whom many evaluators consider to be one of the best young hitters in the minor leagues.

Why would the Kansas City Royals, a 72-win team, trade a young player with such a high ceiling in exchange for a 31-year old starter who may no longer be with the club when it finally turns the corner? That’s a good question, and one that was almost universally asked by pundits, prospects watchers, and number-crunchers alike. However, the near unanimous answer (a desperate Dayton Moore was fleeced by the savvy Andrew Friedman), which admittedly fits nicely into the narrative about both organizations, seems at least a little premature.

Posted in Baseball, Hot Stove, Trades | Tagged Kansas City Royals, Tampa Rays | 3 Comments »

The Kurious Kase of Jason Grilli

December 8, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Jason Grill looking more pumped up than his inflated K/9 rate. (Photo: Getty Images)

Only 21 pitchers since 1901 have struck out 13 or more hitters per game over a minimum of 50 innings in one season. Included among the group are noted strikeout artists like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Rob Dibble, Eric Gagne, Craig Kimbrel, Billy Wagner, and Jason Grilli. That’s right, Jason Grilli.

When reports surfaced on Thursday that Grilli was being courted by as many as 10 different teams, my first reaction was to dismiss the news. After all, the next destination of a journeyman reliever is hardly cause for curiosity, even if his agent is Gary Sheffield. However, the number of teams with interest was too compelling to ignore. And, sure enough, after a quick review of his statistics, it soon became apparent that the clamoring for Grilli was by no means much ado about nothing. The right hander may be a journeyman, but something seems to have happened to him along the way. He has become a strikeout machine.

In 2012, Grilli set down 90 batters in just over 58 innings for a K/9 of 13.8, the 15th highest rate among all pitchers with at least 50 innings. Being in such select company is impressive enough, but what makes the achievement truly remarkable is the meteoric rise Grilli needed in order to attain such a lofty strikeout level.

Top-15 K/9 Rates (min. 50 IP): 1901-2012

Player	Year	Age	Tm	SO/9	IP
Craig Kimbrel	2012	24	ATL	16.7	62.2
Kenley Jansen	2011	23	LAD	16.1	53.2
Carlos Marmol	2010	27	CHC	16.0	77.2
Aroldis Chapman	2012	24	CIN	15.3	71.2
Eric Gagne	2003	27	LAD	15.0	82.1
Billy Wagner	1999	27	HOU	15.0	74.2
Brad Lidge	2004	27	HOU	14.9	94.2
Craig Kimbrel	2011	23	ATL	14.8	77
Armando Benitez	1999	26	NYM	14.8	78
Billy Wagner	1998	26	HOU	14.6	60
Billy Wagner	1997	25	HOU	14.4	66.1
Byung-Hyun Kim	2000	21	ARI	14.1	70.2
Rob Dibble	1992	28	CIN	14.1	70.1
Antonio Bastardo	2012	26	PHI	14.0	52
Jason Grilli	2012	35	PIT	13.8	58.2