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Blue Jays, Yankees Battle in Board Room, but How Will It Spill onto the Field?

November 20, 2012 by William Juliano

The Blue Jays have almost single handedly kept the baseball hot stove burning in November. The team’s busy off season coalesced yesterday as Toronto’s blockbuster trade with the Marlins was approved, the signing of Melky Cabrera was finalized and the selection of John Gibbons as the team’s new manager (again) was revealed. The flurry of activity has Blue Jays fans and players excited about the upcoming season, but is Toronto committed to a long-term strategy or simply taking a shot in the dark?

By purchasing Maple Leaf, Rogers bolstered its sports portfolio, which also includes the Blue Jays.

Like the Marlins last year, the Blue Jays have emerged from relative fiscal dormancy to dominate the headlines early in the baseball off season. In the process, the team has increased its payroll from $84 million in 2012 to a current obligation of approximately $102 million owed to only 15 players. Although it may not match the 75% bump in opening day payroll realized by the Marlins last year (coming off a lower base of $58 million), by the time the smoke clears, the Blue Jays will likely rank among baseball’s biggest spenders.

It’s not hard to have a cynical view of Toronto’s free spending. This time last year, the Marlins were making financial waves, and now it is their fire sale that has facilitated the Blue Jays’ extravagant off season. However, unlike in Miami, the Blue Jays have bigger fish to fry than trying to make a splash in advance of a new stadium (or, perhaps, trying to fulfill, no matter how tenuously, tacit promises made in exchange for generous public financing).

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Posted in Baseball, Business and Finance, Media, MLB, Yankees | Tagged | 5 Comments »

Mike Trout Wins Negro Leagues Museum MVP, Joins a Legacy

November 17, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Charleston would have been proud to have Trout win the award that bears his name. (Photo: NLBM)

Mike Trout was named MVP after all. Granted, he didn’t earn that distinction from the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA), but the award that will sit on his mantle is just as meaningful, having been bestowed by an organization dedicated to the rich and diverse heritage of the national pastime.

On January 12, Trout and Andrew McCutchen will receive the Oscar Charleston Award, a distinction granted by the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum to the most valuable player in each league. The designation is part of the Legacy Awards, an annual event held by the museum to honor the best players of the present as well as some of the greats from a much too forgotten past. In addition to the MVP, the annual banquet also hands out several awards named after other great Negro League players, including Larry Doby, Cool Papa Bell, Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard and Rube Foster (click here for a list of all award winners). Never heard of these immortals? That’s why the NLBM was created…and its success is vital.

Even though some traditionalists in the mainstream media won’t be happy to learn that stat geeks have infiltrated the NLBM, the institution’s decision to honor Trout is notable beyond the contradiction to the BBWAA. What makes the Oscar Charleston Award worthy of attention is the link it creates between an under-appreciated golden era of baseball and players in uniform now.

Who was Oscar Charleston anyway? Regarded by many historians as the greatest all-around talent in the Negro Leagues (so, by extension, baseball history), Charleston played for over 26 years, ending his career in 1941, still six years before Jackie Robinson finally broke the color barrier. However, those who saw him play probably best remember his early years, when, as a 19-year old, he started building his reputation as an elite level center fielder with a dynamic combination of power, speed, and aggressiveness. Sound familiar? That description could just as well apply to Trout.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Negro Leagues | Leave a Comment »

Is 2012 MVP a Lost Battle in Two-Front WAR?

November 16, 2012 by William Juliano

Has sabermetrics lost the WAR? Or, is resistance to the movement’s flagship statistic a two-front battle that is no longer worth fighting?

For the past several years, “sabermetricians” and “traditionalists” have battled over the relative importance of different statistics, with the award season being the most frequent battleground. In 2010, the SABR crowd won a key skirmish when Felix Hernandez was awarded the Cy Young despite winning only 13 games, the fewest ever logged by a recipient. However, this year, the traditionalists struck back with Miguel Cabrera’s MVP victory over Mike Trout. Despite Trout having a WAR that was 30% better, the voters overwhelmingly supported of Cabrera, who won the first triple crown since 1967.

So, why did the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) reverse course from 2010, when it overlooked Hernandez’ low win total, and base the 2012 MVP on traditional stats like batting average and RBIs? Did the voters change their minds about the validity of sabermetrics, or was there a backlash against the increasingly arrogant tone taken by its advocates? Or, does it simply have to do with the packaging, as Rob Neyer has suggested? If WAR wasn’t such a silly sounding acronym, would the BBWAA have been more appreciative of Mike Trout’s all around talent?

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, sabermetrics | 2 Comments »

Blue Jays, Marlins Blockbuster Makes Baseball Sense, Raises Financial Questions for Both Teams

November 14, 2012 by William Juliano

Not long ago, the Miami Marlins were breaking ground on a new stadium. Now, they are breaking up their team. Yesterday, the Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays pulled off a blockbuster, 12-player deal that would make members of a fantasy league blush. No stranger to a fire sale, the Marlins again decided to unload their most expensive contracts, and the Blue Jays were more than happy to take the lot.

Reyes’ days in Miami proved to be short lived. (Photo: NY Daily News)

From a baseball perspective, the Marlins side of the deal is pretty simple. Over the remaining years of each respective contract, the team owed approximately $167 million to Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and John Buck. In 2012, that quartet posted a combined bWAR of approximately 10. For a team like the Marlins, who are coming off a disappointing 93-loss season, that math simply doesn’t add up. So, as it has done repeatedly over the course of its short history, the franchise decided to make an abrupt about-face (click here and here for foreshadowing of the Marlins’ fire sale from last December).

Not surprisingly, the Marlins, and particularly owner Jeffrey Loria, have drawn heavy criticism for their decision to throw in the towel on another season (and, perhaps, the viability of baseball in Miami). However, what chances did the team really have with its flawed roster? Although Reyes, Buehrle and Johnson are solid major leaguers at their worst, all three have red flags in their recent past, so, it’s not hard to understand why the team would wave a white one. With the recent trades of Heath Bell and Hanley Ramirez, last night’s blockbuster was really nothing more than a continuation of the mulligan the organization decided to take soon after realizing the folly of its spending spree last winter.

If not for the Marlins’ past reputation, this deal probably wouldn’t be viewed as critically. However, this most recent fire sale is different from the others because it isn’t coming on the heels of a World Series victory. In 2012, the Marlins were one of the worst teams money could buy, so by dismantling the roster, the organization isn’t pulling the plug on success. Having said, another bait and switch has been the cause of reasonable ire.

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Posted in Baseball, Hot Stove, MLB, Trades | Tagged , | 3 Comments »

Napoli, Youkilis Have Right Stuff for Yankees

November 13, 2012 by William Juliano

Is this a face Yankee fans could grow to love?

What is the Yankees’ greatest area of need this off season? Finding a replacement for Nick Swisher in right field? How about a right handed DH to replace Andruw Jones or an offensive-oriented catcher to either replace or supplement Russell Martin? With Mark Teixeira becoming increasingly injury prone and Alex Rodriguez’ ability to play a full season dwindling, perhaps acquiring a corner infielder is most pressing? With so many areas to upgrade, the Yankees, who are now operating under austerity, seem resigned to entering 2013 with more than a few holes to fill. However, there are two available free agents who would help meet most of the team’s deficiencies without breaking the budget.

Mike Napoli and Kevin Youkilis are not exactly spring chickens. Entering their age 34 and 31 seasons, respectively, both players aren’t the long-term solutions being sought by the Yankees as they attempt to transition from an older nucleus. However, both men can hit, and, specifically, do it from the right side of the plate, which, over the past decade, has been a gradually increasing relative weakness for the Bronx Bombers.

Yankees’ Plate Appearances, LHB vs. RHB, 2003-2012

Source: baseball-reference.com

Brian Cashman has repeatedly stated that he is more than content to build the Yankees’ offense around big, hairy monsters who take aim at the short porch. Of course, other teams are fully aware of this strategy too, so, the Yankees are being subjected to an increasing diet of southpaws. As a result, right handed hitters took over 48% of the team’s plate appearances in 2012, the highest rate since 2004. That wouldn’t be a problem if the Yankees’ righty bats were holding up their end. Instead, last year, the gap in OPS between righties and lefties was nearly twice as wide as any point over the past 10 seasons.

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, Free Agents, Hot Stove, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Players, Yankees To Benefit Most from New Free Agency Rules

November 10, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

The new CBA has weakened the link between free agency and the amateur draft. (Photo: Prospectnation.com)

When the details of baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement were revealed last year, it looked as if the players’ association made most of the concessions, albeit ones that impacted amateurs not yet in the union. However, less than two weeks into the off season, that no longer seems to be the case.

Under baseball’s old CBA, draft pick compensation was assigned to free agents based on a tiered classification system. In order for a team to receive a draft pick, it had to offer salary arbitration to free agents classified as Type A or Type B. The first group of players was the theoretical cream of the crop, so their return was not only much greater, but it also came at the expense of the team signing the free agent. Last winter, 21 players qualified for that designation, but contract stipulations and a mitigating agreement in advance of the new CBA whittled the list down to 15. Still, that number is almost double the eight free agents who will cost their new team a draft pick this off season.

Players Who Were Made a Qualifying Offer for 2013

Player Team Po Age Status
Michael Bourn Braves OF 29 Declined Qualifying Offer
Kyle Lohse Cardinals SP 34 Declined Qualifying Offer
Adam LaRoche Nationals 1B 33 Declined Qualifying Offer
Josh Hamilton Rangers OF 31 Declined Qualifying Offer
B.J. Upton Rays OF 28 Declined Qualifying Offer
David Ortiz Red Sox DH 36 Signed 2-Year Extension
Hiroki Kuroda Yankees SP 37 Declined Qualifying Offer
Rafael Soriano Yankees RP 32 Declined Qualifying Offer
Nick Swisher Yankees OF 31 Declined Qualifying Offer

Note: A qualifying offer is equal to the average salary of the 125-highest paid players, or $13.3 million.

The new CBA eliminated the link between arbitration and free agent compensation (click here for a breakdown of significant changes in the CBA). Instead, teams are now eligible to receive a draft pick should they lose any player to whom they made a qualifying contract offer, which this year amounts to $13.3 million. One more wrinkle was also added. Players traded midseason were exempted from the system. As a result, free agents like Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Shane Victorino will not bear the scarlet letter of draft pick compensation this off season.

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Posted in Baseball, CBA, Draft, Free Agents, Hot Stove, MLB, Yankees | Leave a Comment »

Luxury Tax Getting Right of Way as Yanks Search for Swisher’s Replacement

November 8, 2012 by William Juliano

In Spring Training, the big question for the Yankees will be whether Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson switch places in left and center. Before they get to that point, however, the Yankees first need to determine who will stand alongside them in right, and at what cost?

Because of a budget crunch, Nick Swisher has likely given his last salute in pinstripes.

One of the Yankees’ biggest advantages over the years has been their ability to not only sign the best free agents, but retain their own. However, despite continuing to enjoy immense financial success (Forbes estimates the team had an operating profit of $10 million on $439 million in revenue in 2011), Hal Steinbrenner has made dropping below the salary cap threshold in 2014 a priority. As a result, unless Nick Swisher’s rumored demands come down significantly, Brian Cashman’s chief focus this off season will be replacing a player who gave him steady, above average offensive production as well as solid and flexible defense. Swisher also had a significance presence in the clubhouse and, at least until this October, established himself as a fan favorite. Make no mistake about it, by allowing Swisher to walk away, the team is creating a big hole on the roster, and, Cashman knows it. For those reasons, his decision, and the player he selects, will likely come under an inordinate amount of scrutiny.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ right fielder Justin Upton would be an ideal replacement for Swisher. Despite entering his age-25 season, Upton has already established himself as one of the best players in the game, having made two All Star appearances and finished among the top-5 in the 2011 MVP race. His relative struggles in 2012 have dampened some of the enthusiasm for Upton, but he remains one of only 29 players to perform at an above average rate in at least 3,000 plate appearances before his age-25 season. With a career OPS+ of 117, Upton is only bettered by 19 others from that group, almost all of whom are in the Hall of Fame.

Upton seems like a perfect fit for the Yankees, who desperately need to get younger on the field, but, according to recent reports, the team is not considered a serious contender. Why? They do not have any major league ready prospects to trade. When Cashman dealt Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda last off season, the cupboard was left bare in the high minors, so with so many other teams attracted to Upton’s talent and affordability (he is under contract for three more seasons at an average annual value of about $13 million), the Yankees probably can’t compete. Chances are if Upton changes his uniform, it won’t be for pinstripes.

Choo’s lefty stroke would fit in nicely at Yankee Stadium.

Another attractive right fielder rumored to be on the trade market is the Indians’ Shin-Soo Choo. Just entering his age-30 season, the right fielder is arguably one of the most under-appreciated players in the game. Since 2008, Choo’s OPS+ of 136 ranks 12th among all players with at least 2,000 plate appearances. In addition, he has the reputation for being a solid defender with one of the strongest arms in all of baseball. If there is one drawback to Choo, he has proven susceptible to southpaws, so, even though he would benefit from the short porch at Yankee Stadium, he wouldn’t address the team’s growing vulnerability to split-based match-ups. Nonetheless, if the Yankees could obtain the right fielder, he would more than make up for the loss created by Swisher. Continue Reading »

Posted in Baseball, Free Agents, Hot Stove, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | 1 Comment »

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