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Buck Has Orioles Flying High, but Can They Rule the Roost? (History Says Yes)

May 23, 2012 by William Juliano

It’s been a topsy-turvy year in the A.L. East. After more than a decade of relative stability atop the division, the standings now read as if they were printed up-side down. With stalwarts like the Yankees and Red Sox bringing up the rear, and the Orioles perched above the others, it’s been anything but business as usual. But, how long will this new world order last?

After more than a decade of being kicked around, the Orioles are finally fighting back.

Many Yankees and Red Sox fans, and perhaps members of each organization, have taken solace in the fact that the Baltimore Orioles currently lead the division.  A six game deficit in May would never be cause for panic, but when the team out in front hasn’t had a winning season since 1997, it’s easy to see why the sense of urgency has been racheted down. However, based on history, the rest of the A.L. East shouldn’t take the Orioles too lightly.

Since 1901, 226 other teams (less than 10% of the total) have started the season with a record at least as good as this year’s Baltimore Orioles. Of that group, which collectively posted a winning percentage of .598 in the combined seasons, over half wound up winning the division. Perhaps just as important to an organization like the Orioles, which has been desperate for any sign of progress, nearly 90% of the segment finished no lower than third place and 96% ended up above .500.

Full Season Performance by Teams with At Least 28 Wins in First 44 Games

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Tagged | 1 Comment »

Has Yankees’ RISP Failure Become a Pressing Issue?

May 22, 2012 by William Juliano

Over the past nine games, the Yankees’ offense has turned R-I-S-P into a “four-letter word”. Following last night’s abysmal 0-13 performance with runners in scoring position, which, according to the Daily News, was the team’s worst single game performance since 1990, the Bronx Bombers have now gone 6 for their last 72 when presented with an opportunity to score.

As implied by the team’s shockingly low production with runners on at least second or third, the Yankees’ inability to come through in the clutch has pretty much been widespread. That has led many to speculate that the lineup might be pressing, creating a infinite loop that has seen the Yankees spiral all the way to last place. Joe Girardi, however, has offered a much simpler answer. “That’s baseball,” the Yankees’ manager has frequently stated.

It happens every year. It happens to every team. It doesn’t look good when you’re going through it. But you’ve got to keep competing.” – Derek Jeter, May 21, 2012, quoted in the New York Post

Although some Yankees, like Russell Martin, have acknowledged that the lineup might be “pressing”, for the most part, the public comments have been optimistic. After yesterday’s loss, Derek Jeter echoed Girardi’s comments, pointing out that several outs with runners in scoring position were hit well. Obviously, the scoreboard doesn’t keep track of good at bats, but if the team is continuing to have them, maybe the current futility with men in scoring position isn’t that serious after all?

Yankees’ vs. American League, Performance with RISP, 2012 (click to enlarge)

Source: fangraphs.com

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Tagged | Leave a Comment »

Identity Crisis: Who Are the 2012 Yankees?

May 21, 2012 by William Juliano

With one-quarter of the season already in the books, the Yankees find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Not only has the Bronx Bombers’ recent slide dropped the team to within one game of the .500 mark, it has also placed them on the cusp of last place. Should the team eventually hit rock bottom, it would mark the first time since 1990 that the Yankees brought up the rear this late in the season.  So, who are these 2012 Yankees and is it time to panic?

The Yankees’ 21-20 record isn’t much worse than it was last season after 41 games (22-19), and the 2011 team wound up coasting to another division title. However, there are some important distinctions, the most obvious being the overall competitiveness of the A.L. East. Last year, when the Yankees were hovering around .500 in May, the team was in second place, just one game behind in the loss column. This year, the Yankees are one game from last place and five off the lead. Granted, the division leading Orioles are probably a good bet to lose steam, but records aside, the A.L. East has all the earmarks of a much improved and more well rounded division.

Yankees’ Record after 41 Games, Since 1996

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even more important than the relative strength of the A.L. East is the lack of consistency that the Yankees have shown all season. It’s hard to point to more than one five-game stretch in which the team has played well in all facets of the game. With the exception of the bullpen, every component of the team has struggled for a significant stretch, making it difficult to assess exactly what kind of team the Yankees have, much less how they will be able to turn it around.

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | 1 Comment »

Examining an Age Old Question About the Yankees’ Offense

May 19, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstripe Alley)

Based on recent commentary, one might come away with the impression that the Yankees have been trotting out an Old Timer's Day lineup.

 

The Yankees’ offense is old. There’s no disputing that. In fact, if the unit’s average current age of 32.5 is maintained, it would rank as the oldest group of hitters in franchise history, just edging out the 2005 team. Because of the team’s recent struggles, several pundits have seized on the lineup’s relative age as a reason for the slump, but, is the Yankees’ older lineup a genuine cause for concern?

Historical Comparison of Yankees Average Age and Runs/Game, Since 1901
 

Note: BatAge is the weighted average age of offensive players only.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

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Yanks Best Laid Plans Go Awry, but Nothing Cole Hamels Can’t Fix

May 18, 2012 by William Juliano

After getting off to a historic start in April, the Yankees offense has hit the skids in May. As a result, the team’s output per game has dropped precipitously, declining from 5.5 runs in the opening month to 3.6 in the current one. So, naturally, everyone wants to know why.

Not surprisingly, the media has latched on to the team’s age (and, for good measure, renowned pharmacologist Bob Klapish has added steroid withdrawal into the mix) as the main reason for the Yankees’ mediocre start. And, you know what? The pundits are probably right. However, the problem isn’t the advanced age of the offense, as so many seem to think, but the relative youth and inexperience of the starting rotation the Yankees expected to have.

The Yankees decision to feature three young starters hasn't gone according to plan (Photo: NY Daily News).

Brian Cashman’s winter strategy revolved around two concepts: complacency in the offense and reliance upon young (and inexpensive) starting pitchers. Although it’s definitely too early to panic about the lineup, especially because the Yankees’ offense still ranks among the league leaders, concern about the starting staff doesn’t seem as premature.

The most obvious crack in Cashman’s master plan was the shoulder injury sustained by Michael Pineda. Although unfortunate, Pineda’s season ending injury can’t honestly be considered an unforeseen occurrence. As soon as the trade was made, much was made of the inherent risk of young starting pitchers, so the eventual outcome wasn’t exactly shocking.

Vulnerability to injury isn’t the only reason why young starters are so risky. Pitchers without sufficient major league experiences also exhibit greater variations in performance. Put less kindly, they are often unreliable. That’s why building a rotation with three young starters (Pineda, Ivan Nova, and Phil Hughes) was such a risky proposition.

The Yankees’ didn’t have to rely on such an inexperienced group of starters. In fact, there were several alternatives to consider. However, instead of pursuing C.J. Wilson, posting a competitive offer for Yu Darvish, or dabbling in the trade market for someone like Gio Gonzalez, Cashman relied upon a more cost conscious approach.  Would the Yankees have been better off with one of the more experienced/accomplished pitchers who were available in the offseason? In the short term, the obvious answer is yes, but that doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t quickly remedy the oversight sooner than later.

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Roster Analysis, Rumors, Trades, Yankees | Tagged , | 1 Comment »

Home Run Unhappy: Too Many Long Balls Becoming a Problem for Yankees

May 17, 2012 by William Juliano

In recent years, a common lament about the Yankees’ offense has been it hits “too many home runs”. Needless to say, that theory makes little sense. After all, having a power laden offense has been a Yankees’ hallmark since the days of Babe Ruth, which is why the team has affectionately and admiringly been called the Bronx Bombers. However, in 2012, that nickname could just as easily apply to the team’s starting rotation, which has not only bombed with regularity, but also surrendered more than its fair share of home runs while doing so.

Thanks to the three long balls Hiroki Kuroda surrendered during last night’s 8-1 loss the Blue Jays, Yankees’ starters have now allowed more home runs than any other rotation in baseball.  Even more jarring, the team’s starters have allowed a whopping 1.65 homers per nine innings, which would easily rank as the highest ratio in team history. In fact, if not for the Twins’ rotation, which has allowed 1.76 home runs per nine innings, the Yankees’ group of starters would be on pace to allow the most home runs per game in baseball history (the 1987 Angels allowed 1.60/9 innings).

Historical HR/9 Ratio of Yankees’ Starting Rotation vs. A.L. Average|
Source: Fangraphs.com

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Posted in Baseball, MLB, Yankees | 4 Comments »

Ibanez Makes Early Impact with Bat, but Do Clutch Hits Justify Shaky Glove?

May 12, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstripe Alley)

Ibanez' hits have generated lots of high-fives. (Photo: AP//Frank Franklin II)

Raul Ibanez is the most interesting designated hitter in the American League. He may not always hit home runs, but when he does, they not only travel a long way, but also make a big impact.

In the sixth inning of last night’s game, Ibanez’ three-run homer off Felix Hernandez landed just inside the right field short porch, but most of his previous long balls had been tape measure jobs. According to Home Run Tracker, four of Ibanez’ other five homers qualified as “no doubters” that would have cleared the fence in every other major league stadium. Only Josh Hamilton, with six, has more, but on a percentage basis, no one has gotten their money’s worth more than Ibanez (and, perhaps, by extension, the Yankees).

Raul Ibanez’ Home Run Overlay, As of 5/10/12

Source: http://www.hittrackeronline.com

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Posted in Baseball, Roster Analysis, sabermetrics, Statistical Analysis, Yankees | Tagged | Leave a Comment »

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