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Starting Over: Looking at Bullpen Usage from the Other End

January 30, 2012 by William Juliano

On Saturday, I posted a follow-up to a recent Fangraphs’ analysis of relief pitchers’ aggregate performance over the last 30 years. Although my findings supported the statistical conclusion of the Fangraphs’ piece (i.e., reliever performance has not changed meaningfully over the period considered), there was a divergence with regard to the implications.  However, because both analyses only looked at the question from the perspective of relief pitchers, each conclusion may have been incomplete .

Prompted by a comment from MikeD, the following analysis examines the question of bullpen usage from the perspective of the starting pitcher. After all, relievers are only needed to the extent that starters are unable to complete games. Therefore, the usage pattern for the rotation must have an impact on how the bullpen is employed.

Percentage of Batter’s Faced by Relievers and Starters, Since 1982
 Source: fangraphs.com

Based on innings pitched and batters faced, it appears as if starters are currently going as deep into games as they were in 1982. However, looking at the aggregate total disguises what may be more meaningful trends. For example, since 1919, there has been a gradual decline in the rate of complete games, and even when compared to 1982, the drop has been significant. But, how does this impact bullpen usage?

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Grabbing the Bullpen by the Horns: What Is the Optimal Strategy for Using Relievers?

January 28, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstripe Alley; unless otherwise noted, WAR refers to fangraphs’ calculation of the metric)

Is it time to consider a new way of bringing in relievers?

Is it better to maximize the number of times a reliever can be used or the length of his appearances? Yesterday at frangraphs.com, Dave Cameron tried to answer that question by comparing bullpen performance over the last 30 years and concluded that because there hasn’t been an aggregate improvement, teams would be better off returning to the past practice of using relievers for longer stints.

According to Cameron’s data, not only have modern bullpens failed to improve performance over the last 30 years, they also haven’t been called upon to pitch more often. Instead, the number of relief innings pitched has simply shifted from premium relievers to those filling out the roster. In other words, according to this conclusion, the Sergio Mitres of the world have become common place on major league rosters, despite little evidence to suggest that they provide some measurable derivative value.

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, sabermetrics, Statistical Analysis | Tagged | 5 Comments »

Show Me the Money: A Chronological History of Baseball’s Best Paid Players

January 27, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at Bronx Banter)

Alex Rodriguez stood alone as baseball’s only $200 million man for a decade, but now he has company. In the last six weeks, the fraternity has tripled with the addition of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. However, Arod still remains firmly planted atop baseball’s all-time salary totem pole.

10 Highest Paid Players in Baseball History, by Total Value and AAV

Note: Roger Clemens signed a pro-rated $28,000,022 deal with the Yankees in 2007, but he was only paid $17,400.000.
Source: Cots Contracts

If anyone was going to top Arod’s $27.5 million average annual salary, it seemed as if Albert Pujols would be the man. However, the new Angels’ first baseman “settled” on a contract that will pay him $24 million over the next 10 years, meaning he not only fell short of Arod’s current deal, but also failed to topple the contract Rodriguez signed with the Rangers in 2001. As a result, the Yankees’ third baseman seems to be a good bet to remain the highest paid player in baseball history for several more years.

Only two other players have had a longer reign as baseball’s all-time highest paid player. Babe Ruth remained atop the financial heap for 29 years, a period that began when he first joined the Yankees in 1920 and continued until 1949, when Ted Williams finally surpassed the $80,000 earned by the Bambino in 1930 and 1931. After the baton passed from the Babe to the Kid, Williams carried it for another 17 years until Willie Mays finally claimed the throne. Between that point and Arod’s mega-$252 million deal in 2001, the title of highest paid player repeatedly changed hands like a hot potato, with some players claiming the distinction for only days.

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Posted in Alex Rodriguez, Arod, Baseball, George M. Steinbrenner, MLB, Red Sox, Yankees | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments »

Prince Fielder Worth His Weight (just not in projected WAR)

January 25, 2012 by William Juliano

Every time a player signs a mega-money deal, there seems to be a very common kneejerk reaction, particularly among saber-friendly analysts. The typical response is to run to fangraphs.com for the player’s WAR-based dollar value and then, using projections, conclude that by the end of the contract, the salary commitment will wind up being a financial burden. Unfortunately, this kind of analysis, which, admittedly, I have probably done on many occasions, completely overlooks several relevant points.

Prince Fielder followed is following in his father’s footsteps by signing with the Tigers. (Photo: Getty Images)

The free agent process isn’t about determining a player’s long-term fair value. Rather, it is the means by which a player can use leverage to maximize his earnings in an effort to make up for the six years he was underpaid because of the reserve clause. Of course, many will point out that the team that signs the free agent didn’t benefit from those six underpaid seasons, but chances are they did reap similar rewards with another player. So, all free agent contracts should be assessed with an understanding that a premium is built into the total value.

Even though WAR provides a solid framework for determining a player’s value on the field, it is not as useful for determining his worth at the negotiating table. Supply and demand are much better determinants of the latter. Using Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million contract as an example, the Tigers’ need (demand) for a middle of the order bat was increased greatly by the loss of Victor Martinez for the season. So late in the winter, however, there was only one viable option (supply) to meet the need. As a result, and because other teams were also interested in the first baseman’s services, GM David Dombrowski had no choice but to up the ante (unless he was willing to enter the season with a compromised lineup). That’s what free agency is all about, and it is within that framework that contracts need to be evaluated.

If Fielder replicates his recent success over the next few seasons and helps turn the Tigers into the perennial division champion in the A.L. Central (which, considering the weakness of the division, seems likely) does it really matter if he underperforms his salary during the backend of the contract? Does Fielder’s potential to put the Tigers over the top in the short term outweigh the anchor he may become later in his career? How one answers those questions is a matter of perspective, but the opinion that counts most belongs to Tigers’ owner Mike Ilitch, who happens to be an 82-year old man worth almost $2 billion. Considering his age and wealth, it stands to reason that the short-term impact matters more to Ilitch. Along the same lines, it’s also worth noting that Fielder’s other prime suitor was the Washington Nationals, who just so happen to be owned by Ted Lerner, another 80-something billionaire (86 and almost $4 billion to be exact).

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Posted in Baseball, Hot Stove, MLB, Sports Business | Tagged , , | 2 Comments »

Yanks Better Off Welcoming Posada Back Than Saying Goodbye

January 24, 2012 by William Juliano

Should the Yankees be considering a DH tandem of Jorge Posada and Andruw Jones?

Considering how many great players have passed through the Bronx, one might think retirement press conferences would be a rite of winter for the Yankees, but when Andy Pettitte decided to walk away last February, it was only the third time the franchise had the opportunity to bid farewell to a former great in such a manner. Almost exactly one year later, that list will now grow to four when long-time Yankees’ catcher and potential Hall of Famer Jorge Posada officially retires from the game during an afternoon press conference at Yankee Stadium.

Although it’s nice that Posada will be given a proper send off, the announcement seems a little premature. Assuming Posada would be willing to accept a part-time role as DH and full-time position as team leader and mentor, bringing the veteran back for one more season seems to make all the sense in the world.

Putting aside his intangible qualities as well as deference to his long and illustrious Yankees career, Posada’s return is also justifiable based on bottom-line performance. Despite struggling as a right-handed hitter, Posada batted .269/.348/.466 in 316 plate appearances as a lefty, which, on an OPS basis, was 18% better than the league average. If Posada was able to replicate that performance, he would provide the perfect complement to Andruw Jones, whose OPS was 44% better than league average when facing left handers.

Jorge Posada/Andruw Jones DH Combo, 2011 Performance vs. League Average

Split PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
Jorge Posada vs RHP as LHB 316 279 0.269 0.348 0.466 0.814 118
Andruw Jones vs LHP as RHB 146 126 0.286 0.384 0.540 0.923 144
Combined 462 405 0.274 0.359 0.489 0.848
A.L. DH Average 0.265 0.340 0.429 0.770

sOPS+ is a comparison of the players split OPS versus the league average in that same split.
Source: baseball-reference.com

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, Hall of Fame, MLB, Roster Analysis, Yankees | Tagged | 2 Comments »

A Look Back at World Series Rematches

January 23, 2012 by William Juliano

The Captain’s Blog is not a big fan of the NFL, at least not the mediocrity and gimmickry that have become its ideals, but in honor of the Giants Super Bowl encore against the Patriots, the table below contains every World Series rematch (same participants within a five-year span) since the inception of the Fall Classic.

World Series Rematches


Note: Rematch defined as the same World Series participants within a five-year span.
Source: mlb.com

Not surprisingly, the Yankees have been involved in all but three of the World Series encores, and, in the games that actually constituted the rematch (i.e., not including the initial series in the string), the Bronx Bombers went 11-3. So, from a New York perspective, that could be a good omen for the football Giants (although, the baseball New York Giants were 1-2 in rematch series). Regardless of the implications, the Yankees ability to either avenge a World Series loss or defend a championship is only further evidence of what Giants’ defensive end Justin Tuck stated last month: when it comes to sports in New York, the Yankees are the team that runs the town.

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Don’t Look Back: An Ageless Tale of Satchel Paige

January 21, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstripe Alley)

Paige pitched for more than 10 Negro League teams, including the Black Yankees. (Photo: Life)

Understandably lost amid the furor surrounding the Yankees and Mariners decision to swap talented young players was news that 49-year old Jamie Moyer, who is recovering from Tommy John Surgery, signed a minor league contract with the Rockies. So much for out with the old.

Baseball is a young man’s game, but unlike most other sports, there’s still plenty of room for older players. Over the years, the number of 40-year olds in the game has ebbed and flow, but the barrier hasn’t been that difficult to cross, especially during the last 30 years. However, 50 is another story altogether.

Hoyt Wilhelm and Jack Quinn are the only two pitchers since 1901 to be active at the age of 49, so, if Moyer throws a pitch with the Rockies, he’ll join that select company. An appearance would also put him on the precipice of the 50-year old club, which, for pitchers, is the exclusive domain of Satchel Paige, who, at the age of 59 (age-58 season), made an appearance for the Kansas City Athletics in 1965.

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