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Hamilton, Greinke Head Free Agent Class, but Rumored Deals Fail to Discount Risk

November 26, 2012 by William Juliano

Wish lists are a big part of the holiday season, and baseball is no exception. However, general managers around the league do not have the advantage of Black Friday bargains. Teams forced to satisfy their needs in the free agent market usually pay full price, and then some, so making an imprudent purchase can prove costly for years to come.

Hamilton’s battle with substance abuse is just one of the many red flags surrounding the 2010 MVP.

Free agency is a risky proposition for baseball teams.  With the exception of the truly elite who hit the open market while still in midst of their prime, free agents are often seeking to cash in on past performance. That’s why doubts always linger when mulling over a big acquisition. However, this year’s free agent class seems to have more than its fair share of question marks. Even the cream of the crop has a greater potential to turn sour. In particular, Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke, the best player and pitcher on the market, are not only saddled with additional risk, but they are also being held to the standards of recent award winning performances that have never been repeated. However, because of the recent trend toward long-term extensions that has thinned out the talent level of the free agent pool, both could break the bank when they eventually come to terms on a new deal.

Hamilton and Greinke have taken a similar path to their current position. Both players were early first round draft picks who entered the professional ranks as highly touted prospects, only to see their careers derailed by personal difficulties. At times written off, Hamilton and Greinke not only re-emerged as productive contributors, but they eventually went on to win an MVP and Cy Young, respectively. However, neither player has lived up to their award winning performances since being honored. And yet, they are both on the precipice of a major payday.

Although Hamilton probably won’t come close to the $200 million figure that was floated around during the season, the lefty slugger is still a good bet to command an average annual salary north of $20 million for at least five years. Considering Hamilton has never come close to approaching his 2010 MVP campaign (his next two highest bWAR ratings combined are barely better than his result that year), such a commitment would be hard to swallow even without the outfielder’s unusually high risk profile. However, when those factors are entered into the equation, it’s even harder to justify the numbers being bandied about.

Josh Hamilton, Yearly Comparison, 2007- 2012

Source: baseball-reference.com

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Blue Jays, Yankees Battle in Board Room, but How Will It Spill onto the Field?

November 20, 2012 by William Juliano

The Blue Jays have almost single handedly kept the baseball hot stove burning in November. The team’s busy off season coalesced yesterday as Toronto’s blockbuster trade with the Marlins was approved, the signing of Melky Cabrera was finalized and the selection of John Gibbons as the team’s new manager (again) was revealed. The flurry of activity has Blue Jays fans and players excited about the upcoming season, but is Toronto committed to a long-term strategy or simply taking a shot in the dark?

By purchasing Maple Leaf, Rogers bolstered its sports portfolio, which also includes the Blue Jays.

Like the Marlins last year, the Blue Jays have emerged from relative fiscal dormancy to dominate the headlines early in the baseball off season. In the process, the team has increased its payroll from $84 million in 2012 to a current obligation of approximately $102 million owed to only 15 players. Although it may not match the 75% bump in opening day payroll realized by the Marlins last year (coming off a lower base of $58 million), by the time the smoke clears, the Blue Jays will likely rank among baseball’s biggest spenders.

It’s not hard to have a cynical view of Toronto’s free spending. This time last year, the Marlins were making financial waves, and now it is their fire sale that has facilitated the Blue Jays’ extravagant off season. However, unlike in Miami, the Blue Jays have bigger fish to fry than trying to make a splash in advance of a new stadium (or, perhaps, trying to fulfill, no matter how tenuously, tacit promises made in exchange for generous public financing).

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Posted in Baseball, Media, MLB, Sports Business, Yankees | Tagged | 2 Comments »

Mike Trout Wins Negro Leagues Museum MVP, Joins a Legacy

November 17, 2012 by William Juliano

(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstriped Bible)

Charleston would have been proud to have Trout win the award that bears his name. (Photo: NLBM)

Mike Trout was named MVP after all. Granted, he didn’t earn that distinction from the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA), but the award that will sit on his mantle is just as meaningful, having been bestowed by an organization dedicated to the rich and diverse heritage of the national pastime.

On January 12, Trout and Andrew McCutchen will receive the Oscar Charleston Award, a distinction granted by the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum to the most valuable player in each league. The designation is part of the Legacy Awards, an annual event held by the museum to honor the best players of the present as well as some of the greats from a much too forgotten past. In addition to the MVP, the annual banquet also hands out several awards named after other great Negro League players, including Larry Doby, Cool Papa Bell, Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard and Rube Foster (click here for a list of all award winners). Never heard of these immortals? That’s why the NLBM was created…and its success is vital.

Even though some traditionalists in the mainstream media won’t be happy to learn that stat geeks have infiltrated the NLBM, the institution’s decision to honor Trout is notable beyond the contradiction to the BBWAA. What makes the Oscar Charleston Award worthy of attention is the link it creates between an under-appreciated golden era of baseball and players in uniform now.

Who was Oscar Charleston anyway? Regarded by many historians as the greatest all-around talent in the Negro Leagues (so, by extension, baseball history), Charleston played for over 26 years, ending his career in 1941, still six years before Jackie Robinson finally broke the color barrier. However, those who saw him play probably best remember his early years, when, as a 19-year old, he started building his reputation as an elite level center fielder with a dynamic combination of power, speed, and aggressiveness. Sound familiar? That description could just as well apply to Trout.

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Is 2012 MVP a Lost Battle in Two-Front WAR?

November 16, 2012 by William Juliano

Has sabermetrics lost the WAR? Or, is resistance to the movement’s flagship statistic a two-front battle that is no longer worth fighting?

For the past several years, “sabermetricians” and “traditionalists” have battled over the relative importance of different statistics, with the award season being the most frequent battleground. In 2010, the SABR crowd won a key skirmish when Felix Hernandez was awarded the Cy Young despite winning only 13 games, the fewest ever logged by a recipient. However, this year, the traditionalists struck back with Miguel Cabrera’s MVP victory over Mike Trout. Despite Trout having a WAR that was 30% better, the voters overwhelmingly supported of Cabrera, who won the first triple crown since 1967.

So, why did the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) reverse course from 2010, when it overlooked Hernandez’ low win total, and base the 2012 MVP on traditional stats like batting average and RBIs? Did the voters change their minds about the validity of sabermetrics, or was there a backlash against the increasingly arrogant tone taken by its advocates? Or, does it simply have to do with the packaging, as Rob Neyer has suggested? If WAR wasn’t such a silly sounding acronym, would the BBWAA have been more appreciative of Mike Trout’s all around talent?

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Blue Jays, Marlins Blockbuster Makes Baseball Sense, Raises Financial Questions for Both Teams

November 14, 2012 by William Juliano

Not long ago, the Miami Marlins were breaking ground on a new stadium. Now, they are breaking up their team. Yesterday, the Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays pulled off a blockbuster, 12-player deal that would make members of a fantasy league blush. No stranger to a fire sale, the Marlins again decided to unload their most expensive contracts, and the Blue Jays were more than happy to take the lot.

Reyes’ days in Miami proved to be short lived. (Photo: NY Daily News)

From a baseball perspective, the Marlins side of the deal is pretty simple. Over the remaining years of each respective contract, the team owed approximately $167 million to Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and John Buck. In 2012, that quartet posted a combined bWAR of approximately 10. For a team like the Marlins, who are coming off a disappointing 93-loss season, that math simply doesn’t add up. So, as it has done repeatedly over the course of its short history, the franchise decided to make an abrupt about-face (click here and here for foreshadowing of the Marlins’ fire sale from last December).

Not surprisingly, the Marlins, and particularly owner Jeffrey Loria, have drawn heavy criticism for their decision to throw in the towel on another season (and, perhaps, the viability of baseball in Miami). However, what chances did the team really have with its flawed roster? Although Reyes, Buehrle and Johnson are solid major leaguers at their worst, all three have red flags in their recent past, so, it’s not hard to understand why the team would wave a white one. With the recent trades of Heath Bell and Hanley Ramirez, last night’s blockbuster was really nothing more than a continuation of the mulligan the organization decided to take soon after realizing the folly of its spending spree last winter.

If not for the Marlins’ past reputation, this deal probably wouldn’t be viewed as critically. However, this most recent fire sale is different from the others because it isn’t coming on the heels of a World Series victory. In 2012, the Marlins were one of the worst teams money could buy, so by dismantling the roster, the organization isn’t pulling the plug on success. Having said, another bait and switch has been the cause of reasonable ire.

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Napoli, Youkilis Have Right Stuff for Yankees

November 13, 2012 by William Juliano

Is this a face Yankee fans could grow to love?

What is the Yankees’ greatest area of need this off season? Finding a replacement for Nick Swisher in right field? How about a right handed DH to replace Andruw Jones or an offensive-oriented catcher to either replace or supplement Russell Martin? With Mark Teixeira becoming increasingly injury prone and Alex Rodriguez’ ability to play a full season dwindling, perhaps acquiring a corner infielder is most pressing? With so many areas to upgrade, the Yankees, who are now operating under austerity, seem resigned to entering 2013 with more than a few holes to fill. However, there are two available free agents who would help meet most of the team’s deficiencies without breaking the budget.

Mike Napoli and Kevin Youkilis are not exactly spring chickens. Entering their age 34 and 31 seasons, respectively, both players aren’t the long-term solutions being sought by the Yankees as they attempt to transition from an older nucleus. However, both men can hit, and, specifically, do it from the right side of the plate, which, over the past decade, has been a gradually increasing relative weakness for the Bronx Bombers.

Yankees’ Plate Appearances, LHB vs. RHB, 2003-2012

Source: baseball-reference.com

Brian Cashman has repeatedly stated that he is more than content to build the Yankees’ offense around big, hairy monsters who take aim at the short porch. Of course, other teams are fully aware of this strategy too, so, the Yankees are being subjected to an increasing diet of southpaws. As a result, right handed hitters took over 48% of the team’s plate appearances in 2012, the highest rate since 2004. That wouldn’t be a problem if the Yankees’ righty bats were holding up their end. Instead, last year, the gap in OPS between righties and lefties was nearly twice as wide as any point over the past 10 seasons.

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Answering the Call: A Veterans Day All Star Team

November 11, 2012 by William Juliano

The following was originally published on November 11, 2010.

Abner Doubleday likely did not invent baseball, but the sport’s connection to the military is still strong.

Baseball and the United States military have been closely intertwined since the days of the Civil War, both in myth and reality. Even if the game wasn’t really invented by Major General Abner Doubleday (ahem, Mr. Selig), a hero of Fort Sumter, the hundreds of baseball players who served their country have cemented the bond between these two cherished institutions. So, what better time than Veterans Day to commemorate the game’s contribution to our armed forces by compiling an All Star team of players who served?

Listed below is a decorated team of Veterans, made up of men who were both enshrined in the Hall of Fame (other than Ralph Houk, whose credentials as a manager and impressive service record merited an exception) and saw active military duty abroad. Their selection is based on a balanced consideration of on-field exploits and military service, and by no means is intended to slight the heroic and honorable sacrifice of every former major leaguer who served their country.

Among the resources used to compile the information below, the following are highly recommended reading on this Veterans Day: Marine Corps Sports Hall of Fame, Stars and Stripes “Baseball in the Military”, and Gary Bedingfield’s Baseball In Wartime website.

It makes a difference when you go through a war, no matter which branch of the service you’re in. Combat is an experience that you never forget. A war teaches you that baseball is only a game, after all—a minor thing, compared to the sovereignty and security of the United States. I once told a newspaper reporter that the bombing attack we lived through on the Alabama had been the most exciting 13 hours of my life. After that, I said, the pinstriped perils of Yankee Stadium seemed trivial. That’s still true today. – Bob Feller, quoted from U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings

Right Handed Starter: Chief Petty Officer (Specialist) Robert William Andrew Feller, U.S. Navy – Pacific Theater of Operations

At the age of 17, Bob Feller was facing down opposing batters from the mound, but his most courageous battles were fought as a member of the United States Navy from 1941 to 1945. Just months after completing his third consecutive season with at least 24 wins, Feller put aside his personal ambitions to enlist in the Navy the very date after the attack on Pearl Harbor. Initially assigned to a physical fitness program managed by boxing champion Gene Tunney, Feller bristled at the more passive assignment and eventually signed up for gunnery school. In fall of 1942, Feller was stationed on the USS Alabama, where he spent the next two years leading an anti-aircraft team. During his time aboard the Alabama, Feller was awarded with five campaign ribbons and eight battle stars. However, he also had time to play some baseball, even adding to his legend by striking out 15 batters in a game that featured the best players serving in the Pacific.

Sailors line up to catch the recently discharged Bob Feller, who exited the Navy as a highly decorated veteran (Photo: Bettmann/CORBIS).

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Posted in Baseball, Baseball History, MLB, Yankee History, Yankees | Tagged , | 2 Comments »

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